History in the making on US markets

[Runnin' Rebel]

I bought 2000 shares of McDonalds in 1991 when my daughter was born @ 35.00. Hate the food. Love the stock, dividends and 2 stock splits later !!SOLD TODAY @ just under 103.00!! Glad I waited out this mess

[Armyguy03]

Originally Posted by JAGERVEGAS

I bought 2000 shares of McDonalds in 1991 when my daughter was born @ 35.00. Hate the food. Love the stock, dividends and 2 stock splits later !!SOLD TODAY @ just under 103.00!! Glad I waited out this mess

Yup, thats a GOOD day at the market!!! Congrats!!!

[Kaylesdad]

Buying stocks at this level needs lots of caution. Fed will continue bond buying program to keep pumping up stocks but the fundamentals are weak at best. Money printing will have disastrous consequences. It is likely that there is still a shock coming in the Eurozone.

[Boothroyd]

Don't take your investment advice from a watch forum, first and foremost.

It's funny how many people I truly respect as investors are using the term, "secular bull market". Time will tell.

[Bisquitlips]

Get out and stay out! While you can......!

[TheVTCGuy]

So.... Does any of this good news transfer over to the housing market? And Mortgages?

I have ZERO debt... No credit cards, no car payment, only monthly bill I have is my mortgage.....

I own a very nice home about a mile and a half (as the crow flies) from the beach in La Jolla California....

Me credit is 770 or higher..

I make good money....

AND NO ONE WILL EVEN CONSIDER GIVING ME A FU$*#&$ FIXED-RATE MORTGAGE!!!!! Right now, I have an ARM at a ridiculous rate.

Why? Because I am somewhere around $80,000 underwater.

HARP doesn't help, because the people that own my mortgage are a "mortgage holding company" not a lender (). They tell me get a mortgage, THEN I qualify for HARP. IF, I could GET A MORTGAGE I WOULDN'T NEED HARP!!!

OR... some other just fantastic and wonderful advice I have been given is: "Don't make your Mortgage payments for the next three or four months then call us." Yeah.... yeah... that's a great idea.....

Can you tell I'm just a little but upset about this.

[Boothroyd]

Paul, very sorry to hear this. Didn't they see your tile work in the bathroom? That should have cinched it right there!!

Seriously, I can't speak for San Diego, but Minneapolis was hit hard with foreclosures, etc. and the appreciation rates, while not back to baseline of 2007, are up about 12% so far this year. No inventory for buyers who want to lock in low rates. We are about 60% back from market highs here.

So you may get your chance to lock in at a low rate as the Fed is going to keep the prime low for several years to come, and SD may appreciate to the point where you are right-side-up. Here's hopin'!

[TheVTCGuy]

Thanks Daniel

Yeah, Go figure! My tile job HAS to be worth $80,000 right!?

[Boothroyd]

Well, I think so, Paul!

[watchf]

This is not my world but I am curious if the TRF'ers in the finance world reckon if this will plauteau at this level for a while still, keep going up or its at its peak and will drop in a predictable manner.

[Boothroyd]

This humble contributor has as much insight into the future of the stock market as he did into the Rolex releases at Baselworld 2013. Which is to say, no insight whatsoever!

[Runnin' Rebel]

The -34% return in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for 2008 is the third worst on record. 1931 being the worst and 1907 being 2nd.

Yes, I see a correction. This has been way to good to be true as of late.

[rr-nyc]

Originally Posted by wantonebad

Do you see these prices as inflated and susceptible to corrections or crashes?

I'm not in finance but would guess that we are due for a serious market correction soon. Institutional investors are driving the market right now which is why the stock market is outpacing every other economic indicator.

[bayerische]

Not to be a party pooper, but I don't think we have seen the worst still...

[Kaylesdad]

If you are able to, take some profit off the table. In my humble opinion stocks have been pumped up artificially. Diversification is key. I see rampant inflation down the line. Not in the short term though. An asset allocation of around 10% in bullion (physical not paper etf's etc) is prudent.

[johnbeth]

Smart people would be parking some cash by taking profits as a new correction would be hitting the usa equity markets soon. It has run very hard at no fundamentals. This is unhealthy.
Just my .002 cents worth, that's usa currency im talking about. Because the Yankee economy is at a razors edge and by just printing more money is not going to fix their economic problems.

[Puffy]

Of course only trade and invest in what is trading below NAV

Guaranteed to be corrections along the way

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[wantonebad]

Originally Posted by Puffy

Of course only trade and invest in what is trading below NAV

Guaranteed to be corrections along the way

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk 2

I'm not putting words in your mouth puffy but it seems like you are saying that you don't really trust this market? If that's true I 1000% agree, I don't either. If that's not what you are saying could you elaborate a little more because you don't seem like a fence sitter to me and I respect your opinion.

Thanks!!!

[Gaijin]

If you don't need the money soon. Stay long term in the market. Like 10 years out. Dollar cost average putting the same amount in monthly buying a low fee index fund. For example the S + P 500. Up 13.20 year to date.

Put 3-6 months of expenses in cash and park the rest in bonds and Rolex!

[HRV]

Wish I had a crystal ball.......that worked

[Sixshooter]

Originally Posted by HRV

Wish I had a crystal ball.......that worked

Don't we all! My crystal ball is telling me to stay away at this point. (aka gut feeling)

[Kingair]

Originally Posted by HRV

Wish I had a crystal ball.......that worked

x 2

HAGWe

[Kaylesdad]

Boothroyd I would way sooner listen to some educated TRFers than the mainstream media who will suck people into poor investments right up until the inevitable correction. No market in history has gone up in such a manner on non existent fundamentals. TAKE SOME PROFIT OFF THE TABLE.

[Puffy]

Originally Posted by wantonebad

I'm not putting words in your mouth puffy but it seems like you are saying that you don't really trust this market? If that's true I 1000% agree, I don't either. If that's not what you are saying could you elaborate a little more because you don't seem like a fence sitter to me and I respect your opinion.

Thanks!!!

no denying that markets are propped up with QE

When ben stops his printer there'll be a consolidation based on initial reaction

But when QE stops it only stops because the world's main economy, the US, is in a more healthy state and unemployment is at a level where it can be left to recover without fed intervention

People talk about 35-40% corrections.

IMO not happening. We've just seen how strong the US jobs data is and from other markets strong and consistent macro data is coming out else where

China is never going to get back to 10% growth but markets are accepting the consistent 7% and new letters are addeded to the BRICS so demand is there to keep recovery going

now in europe we're in turmoil because half the member states want to retire by 40 and govts dont have a clue whem it comes to running an economy. This is changing though. Slowly. EU will be the last market to emerge with consistent growth around 2018 coming from all members but thats ok as germany is the eu powerhouse

The 2008 start of the bull market has another few years left in it.

One just needs a diversified portfolio with hard/soft commods, cyclicals, consumer and tech

An example as people have more money they now can afford their usual two to three holidays. Travel companies you want to be long on. I can spend a week in the south of spain for what my monthly train pass costs, it is that cheap and companies make insane profits. QE has nothing to do with this

Advertising companies like wpp are also good indicators of the state of economies. Just reported record profits not driven by QE

and the amount of money that is spent on laser High Frequency Trading is insane. Google it. Tech helps stabilise markets and offer needed volatility too

Djia will finish the year around 14500 and ftse 6600

Pick the right undervalued companies and youll outperform the major indicies by 50% easily

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[Kaylesdad]

US jobs data is NOT strong. It only appears so as the labour participation rate is also increasing thus making thE jobs data appear positive.
Public debt as a percentage of GDP is ridiculously high and that is with interest rates at close to 0%. If the economy is as pumped for growth as you suggest then the interest rate geenie is coming out and that will be disastrous for the US as it will bring inflation. If that's the case then how after all the money printing will the budget allow the debt to be repaid at say 5 % interest. The sting in the tail is coming from the Feds bond buying QE program.

[Kaylesdad]

Meant to say labour participation rate is shrinking. In other words there are more people each month disillusioned enough to no longer even be looking for work.

[Puffy]

Not quite...

The drop in the unemployment rate reflected an increase in employment, rather than people leaving the workforce.. thats good..

figures for March and February were also revised upwards.. good

Not so good is average weekly earnings are down and aggregate hours too..

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[Kaylesdad]

Precisely, the manipulation works as follows: jobs data is up but still too weak to infer a true economic uplift which is required as people will only spend if they are happy that they are secure in their employment so it is imperative that jobs data continues to improve. So in order to reflect a more palatable number the new jobs data number is divided into the jobs participation rate which is shrinking and the result is a larger percentage that is reported. But this larger percentage in itself is highlighting that there are more people employed but even more so doubtful of getting a job that they have stopped even trying to get one.

Even the April increase in Gallup's P2P (payroll to population) measure -- the best measure of real job conditions and the most positive of Gallup's job market measures -- does not appear to be sufficient to lower the unemployment rate once seasonal adjustments are made.
Regardless, if the participation rate continues to surge in the months ahead, the government will eventually pick it up, and it will likely have significant implications for the U.S. unemployment rate. Instead of declining toward the Fed's 6.5% target, the unemployment rate could head in the opposite direction as a flood of new job seekers overwhelms modest job growth. As a result, the Fed could push even larger amounts of money into the economy while the number and volume of calls for increased federal spending has a surge of its own in the months ahead.

[gimpex]

Originally Posted by Puffy

Djia will finish the year around 14500 and ftse 6600

Pick the right undervalued companies and youll outperform the major indicies by 50% easily

Any specific companies that you have your eye on right now that you can mention ?

I have done okay from the bigger more traditional stable companies like MSFT , MCD in the US and TSCO , RSA , VOD in the UK ( and a few more). The dividends together with some options ( especially in the US ) bring in a fair return. The recent capital appreciation makes me a bit nervous that its all going to come tumbling down. I bought in quite a bit during the last dip of 08/09 , and would likely do the same in the next one , but would be great to take at least some profits before the next dip comes - that's my daily dilemma - we know its coming , just not sure if its days, weeks ,months or years away.

[johnbeth]

Originally Posted by gimpex

Any specific companies that you have your eye on right now that you can mention ?

I have done okay from the bigger more traditional stable companies like MSFT , MCD in the US and TSCO , RSA , VOD in the UK ( and a few more). The dividends together with some options ( especially in the US ) bring in a fair return. The recent capital appreciation makes me a bit nervous that its all going to come tumbling down. I bought in quite a bit during the last dip of 08/09 , and would likely do the same in the next one , but would be great to take at least some profits before the next dip comes - that's my daily dilemma - we know its coming , just not sure if its days, weeks ,months or years away.

Warren Buffet once said, never try to predict when the market will hit its peak or lows. Just sell when enough profit head been made and you are happy with it.

Most people don't have an exit strategy which is important in investing.