RIP vintage Rolex hobby?

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by powerfunk

Yes, the prices of the "more desireable" vintage Rolexes have gone crazy in the past few years. I believe that exponentially more people nowadays know about Milsubs, Comex, Paul Newmans, 1655's, DRSD's etc. than they did a decade ago. But these watches are not the entirety of vintage Rolex!

If you're willing to define "desireable" for yourself, there are plenty of great vintage Rolex values left. Bombe lugs, barked gold, logo dials, Oysterquartzes...there are so many cool little quirks in Rolex's history that I find no need to obsess over the same 5-6 models that have already been researched/hyped so thoroughly.

well that really is the question....what is the next Paul Newman in vintage Rolex? What watch can I buy today and see a 1000% return in 10 years???

[Vincent65]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

well that really is the question....what is the next Paul Newman in vintage Rolex? What watch can I buy today and see a 1000% return in 10 years???

Did anyone as cool as McQueen or Newman wear an OQ or Bark?!
If so, there's your answer

[Mike1066]

Originally Posted by psv

I've been discussing this with a few fellow watch enthusiasts,

Patrick, who are these sage and seasoned men with whom you spend your watch time?

You know my thoughts on the subject. It is now, in my view, much more a business than a hobby. And that makes me sad. The day more people thought I was crazy for wearing my 1665 in the ocean (a sea-going tool watch for Pete's sake) than thought I was doing the right thing is the day I started to realize things may not be right.

Maybe the bubble will burst and the watches will come out of the bank vaults (so sad that a tool watch is in a vault) and we will all be able to trade and swap and enjoy vintage Rolex again. Fingers crossed!

-Mike

[Clay]

Prices can go where they like…It will never stop me from enjoying my modest collection, or all of the good people I have met along the way…

[Mike1066]

Originally Posted by Clay

It will never stop me from enjoying my modest collection, or all of the good people I have met along the way…

Completely agree, C. And you are one of those guys! Long live my modest collection (and the non-Rolexes I may add in the future... if those prices stay reasonable! )

-Mike

[andromeda160]

I've always loved watches, since I was really little and have always kept up with the price of high end watches since pretty muc h elementary school and the prices always seem outrageous. I've bought 3 rolexes and 2 omegas and a tag heuer in the past 18 months, sold both omegas, the tag, and one of the rolexes and The profits from the watches sold paid for the 2 rolexes I kept. I'm 20 years old. I don't make extraordinary money, and I'm not buying 5-10k subs or other higher priced variants. But I'll have a gilt meters first 5513 by the time I graduate from college at the rate I'm saving. I used to eat a lot of fast food, smoke cigarettes, and drink multiple energy drinks daily. Now I throw $70/week into my watch fund and rarely eat junk food and I haven't smoked since aug/13 . I don't even realize the money gone because it was always money I wasted anyways and I'm going to have an awesome watch at the end, and I've been able to buy/sell some awesome watches in the process. And the 2 rolexes I have now were essentially "free" as they were paid for with profits from past purchases. This is an active hobby, as long as you're flipping, and saving. Even the entry level hobbyist can achieve grails. I think a vast majority of rolex owners value the history behind their vintage, and that's why they're commanding high prices. I'm sure rolex makes the total sub production from the 70's annually now, and new ones are around $9k. Price is all relative. But with a limited supply and increasing demand seems like a good investment to me, slightly risky but with pretty good upside potential. The rolex market is almost as interesting as the history of rolex, a lot of money has been spent establishing a used marketplace for rolex, rolex guarantees parts for a pretty good while, and independent watchmakers work on ones that RSC won't, it has a well documented history and is one of the most recognizable trademarks on the planet. As long as prices of new models don't tank the market should keep going up with the way rolex has set it up. In my opinion the vintage hobby is not dead, it's just becoming alive.

[Kingair]

Collecting vintage watches is fun and scary together

Not that I am an expert at all but I am surrounded with the best in the world . . . all the members and friends here on TRF

If I need to know something I'll post and ask . . . make it a lot less scarier

Prices are going up on vintage watches but finally everything keeps thinking higher

Maybe a TV or a fridge became cheaper but for the rest ?

The only thing that seems to go down a little is . . . fuel . . . momentarily

But I like to buy vintage Rolex

There is much more fun in it sourcing the right one . . . .

Took me 4 years to get a 1803 RQ but found one . . .

The ones I found where overpriced, over polished but mostly . . . just too late and watch sold . . . so yes it was always me

But that is part of the game

But gents as you all have been reading (and each day I learn a lot here on TRF) watch out !

I am always surprised how many people still buy and than start asking . . . . with funny faces behind the other screen . . . going from red to green

TRF is for me the best forum watch related

Made some 'forum' friends although we never met . . . . but never say never . . . it's only one day and mostly one flight away

Keep collecting my friends . . . what you are looking for . . . is out there . . . somewhere

HAGWe buddies

And please stay thirsty my friends

[crl848]

The advent of the internet has transformed all collecting fields. The ease of search and forums such as this one spread knowledge, news of auctions, and authentification. This and the rise in price of anything tangible in the last few years means that the old days are gone forever.

[JohnBaker3]

Originally Posted by Clay

Prices can go where they like…It will never stop me from enjoying my modest collection, or all of the good people I have met along the way…

+10

Another way to "beat the system" is to buy a good Rolex new, then out-live the inflation time frame!

I got my 5513 in 1972 for $279....should be worth close to $10K now that it is nicely restored...and I keep the NOS C+I bracelet in the safe!

Life is good !

[jdmi32]

I collect both watches and sports memorabilia, and over the course of 20 years I've learned that if I buy the best example that I can reasonably afford, regardless of perceived market condition, I won't be disappointed in the long run.

[Clay]

Originally Posted by Mike1066

Completely agree, C. And you are one of those guys! Long live my modest collection (and the non-Rolexes I may add in the future... if those prices stay reasonable! )

-Mike

Cheers Mike...

[Hi-roller]

Don't forget that, for the last few years, we've been going through two phases:
1) The rapid rise in value of the Swiss Franc. This has meant regular substantial price increases from Swiss factories when converting to dollars, pounds etc.. Rising new prices result in rising used prices, although usually at a slightly lesser rate.
2) Vintage items being very much in fashion. This has, of course, included watches.
IMO increases are now levelling as the currency situation has stabilised. Also, the vintage 'fad' will pass and older watch values may be affected accordingly.
This could be good news for genuine collectors.

[MATCH1969]

My last crazy vintage purchase

[shane0mack]

Originally Posted by Hi-roller

Don't forget that, for the last few years, we've been going through two phases:
1) The rapid rise in value of the Swiss Franc. This has meant regular substantial price increases from Swiss factories when converting to dollars, pounds etc.. Rising new prices result in rising used prices, although usually at a slightly lesser rate.
2) Vintage items being very much in fashion. This has, of course, included watches.
IMO increases are now levelling as the currency situation has stabilised. Also, the vintage 'fad' will pass and older watch values may be affected accordingly.
This could be good news for genuine collectors.

I sure hope you're right.

[swish77]

Prices increase for everything, so you just need to adapt. So, now I find myself looking at sapphire Rolexes with tritium patina (like this from a borrowed photo). Relatively affordable, still "vintage" looking in some regards and no longer made, which I like too. Soon enough, though, these watches will also be priced too high for many of us to afford. Then, time to adapt again. You know, very nice vintage DJs can still be had for around $2K-$2.5K.

[QueueCumber]

For your pleasure...

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...art-of-the-day

[enginerd]

Originally Posted by watchcrank

:-) Man, I feel old. First SS datejust I bought new was $700. full retail at Bailey, Banks & Biddle. M

I paid less than that for my SS DJ 9 months ago! A fluke sure, but the stars do align every so often.

[colpol]

Originally Posted by psv

Market pricing seems to be controlled by a surprisingly few number of people. Talented and skillful operators like Andrew Shear brings top-quality pieces to market, but also do so by offering watches at premium prices, often over 25% higher than what one would expect. Who can blame them, because their is a segment of buyers that doesn't really care if they pay e.g. $11,000 or $16,000 for a minty 1665, so why not maximize profit? The downside for the community is that it creates comps and drive the inflation of prices into outer space.

Thoughts/comments?

I'm one of those people who've recenty purchased from Andrew but kind of disagree

I could have purchased far cheaper else where - far cheaper but I didn't want thin\ over polished lugs, bashed up bezel, over streched bracelet, etc. So I saved up & I mean saved ..... !! This watch represents birthday & christmas money, ebay sales, overtime, weekend work with another company doing office moves assisting with the IT side of stuff - Got there in end & I'm by no means what I'd call a rich man

Compare the price I paid against a brand new sub & my vintage 1680 came in at well under what I'd have paid in UK for a brand new watch. My 36 year old 1680 IMHO looks 1000 times better than any brand new Subc & cheaper.

Yes - I paid I premium but wanted as good as the best I could get so I bit the bullet. Now the saving begins for my next one ............

[StaceeJaxx]

Originally Posted by Clay

Prices can go where they like…It will never stop me from enjoying my modest collection, or all of the good people I have met along the way…

I don't think anyone is saying you can't

[fmc000]

Originally Posted by colpol

I'm one of those people who've recenty purchased from Andrew but kind of disagree

I could have purchased far cheaper else where - far cheaper but I didn't want thin\ over polished lugs, bashed up bezel, over streched bracelet, etc. So I saved up & I mean saved ..... !! This watch represents birthday & christmas money, ebay sales, overtime, weekend work with another company doing office moves assisting with the IT side of stuff - Got there in end & I'm by no means what I'd call a rich man

Compare the price I paid against a brand new sub & my vintage 1680 came in at well under what I'd have paid in UK for a brand new watch. My 36 year old 1680 IMHO looks 1000 times better than any brand new Subc & cheaper.

Yes - I paid I premium but wanted as good as the best I could get so I bit the bullet. Now the saving begins for my next one ............

That's serious talking. Great post and congrats.


Sent from my mobile using Tapatalk.

[The_Walrus]

I think modern discontinued models might be the way to go.
Buy a 16600 while you can

[HL65]

Originally Posted by The_Walrus

I think modern discontinued models might be the way to go.
Buy a 16600 while you can

Yes because there are so few of them out there in circulation.

Supply vs. demand--market price always has final say.

[RC2]

Lets start the rumor vintage watches are no longer cool, a terrible investment, and out of style. Maybe we can start the rumor here and decrease demand!

Just a sat morning thought after my morning run before the kids get up and wear me out !

Hopefully someone laughed!

Ok; great discussion and if anyone wants to make me less cool - I will take your red sub or boring 70s style (who likes that style anyway) crappy 1675 - hey they make them better now - plastic crystal - crap... Watch off your wrists.....



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Beef]

There is another factor that is rearing its ugly head: vintage counterfeiting. It is getting much more sophisticated as time goes on. As the prices continue to rise, more effort is put into making something common into something rare. The counterfeiters are getting better everyday. And some sellers are not as honest as those on here. Look at John Mayer's experiences and the now debunked white dialed "Pan Am" GMT. I have seen several examples in the militaria market where counterfeits have made the market a ""minefield" and slowed the rapid rise in prices and stabilized the market somewhat. Of course, when prices go up, they don't come down.

Rolex, being mechanical and very expensive anyway, will be more difficult to manipulate. But, a perfect fake gilt dial, faded font bezel, etc. will muddle the waters enough for buyers to beware. And it is going to happen. Look at the Tiffany dials. They are so good, since the Tiffany font was all that was added to a genuine vintage dial. Now most people won't touch them without papers. Which brings me to the once reputable seller from VRF that bought a vintage punch machine........

[QueueCumber]

Originally Posted by colpol

I'm one of those people who've recenty purchased from Andrew but kind of disagree

I could have purchased far cheaper else where - far cheaper but I didn't want thin\ over polished lugs, bashed up bezel, over streched bracelet, etc. So I saved up & I mean saved ..... !! This watch represents birthday & christmas money, ebay sales, overtime, weekend work with another company doing office moves assisting with the IT side of stuff - Got there in end & I'm by no means what I'd call a rich man

Compare the price I paid against a brand new sub & my vintage 1680 came in at well under what I'd have paid in UK for a brand new watch. My 36 year old 1680 IMHO looks 1000 times better than any brand new Subc & cheaper.

Yes - I paid I premium but wanted as good as the best I could get so I bit the bullet. Now the saving begins for my next one ............

Yeah, Andrew is a nice guy and sells great pieces. That being said, if he has something you want, better buy it quick! His stock generally moves fast...

[Baco Noir]

It's even happening with the vintage Tudor subs. I've been wanting a blue snowflake for years, but never pulled the trigger, and now the prices are crazy. I missed the boat on these.

[Mark020]

Heuers have appreciated considerably in the last 5 years. Nice Monaco or Siffert is USD 10k as well. Part of my collection:

[SAAS]

Originally Posted by Mark020

Heuers have appreciated considerably in the last 5 years. Nice Monaco or Siffert is USD 10k as well.

Very nice Heuers!

[subtona]

Good reading Patrick!

Only hope is to stumble on the rare piece found in those small corners of the earth that have not been overrun by internet & television...where you may find that old watch that someone is all to happy to sell you for 5x-10x what he originally paid for it...everybody wins.

Would also like to share, Not so convinced the issue falls squarely on the shoulders of the ultra rich, rather i believe it is the marketing of the brands themselves...when watch companies present watches they identify as LE and ask ridiculous premiums for them, with very very rare exception this is just horse poo.

Ie a panerai 1 of 20 using a NOS rolex movement in a recreation of the original vintage piece, for me may be that exception ... But things like that are a rare offering.

[MP5]

I beg for the bubble and popularity to burst, They will always be invaluable to me!