Apple Watch And The Watch Industry

[BJHofkin]

Here's my take as an Apple fan, Apple investor, Rolex owner, and mechanical watch enthusiast:

I think Rolex, PP, most of the Richemont brands, and other truly high-end watch manufacturers are basically safe. As many have noted, you don't buy an Apple Watch for the same reasons you buy a Rolex.

HOWEVER…

I think more entry level brands, and perhaps all mechanical watch manufacturers making watches under $5,000 or so, could be in big trouble—let alone department store and "high end" quartz watches. Why? Because unlike other previously released smart watches, the Apple Watch is ATTRACTIVE. Snobbery toward circuit boards notwithstanding, I think someone who otherwise likes watches can wear an Apple Watch and feel good about it aesthetically, unlike, say, with the Samsung Gear. And that means that there's enough overlap with respect to why someone would wear an Apple Watch and why someone would wear something like a Longines or even a Tag, so that Apple is going to take a big piece of those companies' market share. LMVH and Swatch could definitely be in trouble.

As for all quartz watches other than truly cheap versions and the G Shock, I think the writing is on the wall. After all, why would someone spend $500 on a department store fashion watch when you can get an Apple Watch for a similar price that is a thousand times cooler and more functional?

Very curious to hear folks' thoughts on this question!

[floater156]

Last thing I need is to have my watch run out of battery everyday.

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[BJHofkin]

Originally Posted by floater156

Last thing I need is to have my watch run out of battery everyday.

Sent from my XT907 using Tapatalk

Right, but couldn't you say the same thing about your phone?

Just to be clear, I'm not making a normative claim about what's better, the Apple Watch or mechanical timepieces; I'm simply making a prediction.

[Prism]

The apple watch will loose significant value in less than a year, the Rolex won't. Enough said.

[nikhsub1]

The digital world is slowly killing human social interaction. The apple watch will exponentially hasten this process. I personally want no part of it. We are going to see a new breed of digital consumption with the new Dick Tracy devices for all.

[Prism]

...and the greatest fools will be those that purchase the gold case version. The electronics inside will become obsolete in a years time.

[floridaBMW]

I think you make an interesting point. My opinion is $1000 and under watches including GShock will be the ones fighting for that market share. But, I also think this is a fad and may die out after the hype train passes.

Above the $1000 threshold, the men and women buying mechanical are purposely buying mechanical watches.

Ken


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[omitohud]

Iphone changes style every 6 months. iPhone variations become obsolete in 3 yrs. how long do u think this watch would last? My prediction in 5 yrs time, people would feel dumb buying this watch. Who still uses the original iphone nowadays? Not to mention apple likes to squeeze as much profit as possible from consumers, wait till they abandon this concept or make a tweak, this watch becomes another junk.


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[powerfunk]

Originally Posted by BJHofkin

unlike other previously released smart watches, the Apple Watch is ATTRACTIVE.

Looks just like every other smartwatch to me.

Originally Posted by BJHofkin

there's enough overlap with respect to why someone would wear an Apple Watch and why someone would wear something like a Longines or even a Tag

Completely disagree there. I think the reason most people buy Longines or Tag is pretty much the same reason most people buy Rolex and Patek. They want a nice, classy watch. Maybe brands like Citizen will see some slight trouble from this, but Longines etc.? I highly doubt it.

Wristwatches are more convenient than pocketwatches because our minds can read the time in a fraction of a second. It doesn't always make sense to take the extra 1 second to pull something out of your pocket, and it's not always polite to ostentatiously check the time. An extraordinarily brief glance at an analog clock/watch gives our brain all it needs to know about the time, but our brains cannot read text messages/weather/etc. all in a fraction of a second...so why not just pull out your phone? Just another "me-too" product of the post-Jobs era IMHO.

[tfly212]

Originally Posted by BJHofkin

Right, but couldn't you say the same thing about your phone?

Just to be clear, I'm not making a normative claim about what's better, the Apple Watch or mechanical timepieces; I'm simply making a prediction.

I think the difference is expectation...I expect to have to charge my phone (or laptop, tablet, etc)...no one has the expectation of ever having to charge a watch. I think they will sell decently at first but once people start using them and realizing they have a dead watch by happy hour unless they drag a charger around (one that won't work for anything else) they won't keep using them.

[Tools]

Originally Posted by tfly212

I think the difference is expectation...I expect to have to charge my phone (or laptop, tablet, etc)...no one has the expectation of ever having to charge a watch. I think they will sell decently at first but once people start using them and realizing they have a dead watch by happy hour unless they drag a charger around (one that won't work for anything else) they won't keep using them.

I can see the lines now at the Airport Terminal. Dozens of droopy eyed zombies with their wrists tethered to the lone charging station or against the wall outlet, waiting.................and waiting for their wrist to get enough power to "interact".

And another line against the boarding wall outlet, waiting for their wrist to charge because they have their boarding ticket on their watch to be scanned - but that was before the battery died.........


oh.......... and the throngs of slumped over crowds walking down the concourse yelling into their wrist in a thousand different languages...

I can hardly wait...

[Welshwatchman]

The good thing about a typical £100 quartz watch is that the battery will last 3 years.

The Iwatch battery life is proposed to be 10-15 HOURS.

The 'phone is an essential item and is worthy of a daily charge.

Charging a secondary gizmo on a daily basis? Notsomuch.

[JJL]

Originally Posted by BJHofkin

Here's my take as an Apple fan, Apple investor, Rolex owner, and mechanical watch enthusiast:

I think Rolex, PP, most of the Richemont brands, and other truly high-end watch manufacturers are basically safe. As many have noted, you don't buy an Apple Watch for the same reasons you buy a Rolex.

HOWEVER…

I think more entry level brands, and perhaps all mechanical watch manufacturers making watches under $5,000 or so, could be in big trouble—let alone department store and "high end" quartz watches. Why? Because unlike other previously released smart watches, the Apple Watch is ATTRACTIVE. Snobbery toward circuit boards notwithstanding, I think someone who otherwise likes watches can wear an Apple Watch and feel good about it aesthetically, unlike, say, with the Samsung Gear. And that means that there's enough overlap with respect to why someone would wear an Apple Watch and why someone would wear something like a Longines or even a Tag, so that Apple is going to take a big piece of those companies' market share. LMVH and Swatch could definitely be in trouble.

As for all quartz watches other than truly cheap versions and the G Shock, I think the writing is on the wall. After all, why would someone spend $500 on a department store fashion watch when you can get an Apple Watch for a similar price that is a thousand times cooler and more functional?

Very curious to hear folks' thoughts on this question!

I totally agree with this and was kind of touching upon it in another post, but you worded it better. A big complaint so far is "why would I want to buy something that will be outdated in a year?". Very valid question. Us Rolex wearers are a small % of the market. Most people either wear cheaper watches, or no watches at all. Those that wear cheaper trendy watches, are often replacing them every couple years anyways. Like the OP said, at this point, why would you want to buy a $500 watch at a department store when you can buy an AppleWatch that is actually loaded with cool features, has tons of customization options and still has the cool factor?

Apple Watch isn't going to kill Rolex, PP, AP, IWC, JLC etc.. nor was it ever intended - but it may be swallowing up the larger portion of the market - not to mention, there are going to be luxury watch owners that will NEED the Apple Watch as well.

[T. Ferguson]

Certainly useful life is a concern but I'm not as negative about that aspect as some. Since the watch is not much more than an external monitor/mouse for the phone, as long as Apple allows the each version of the watch to interface with new versions of their phone, the watch should last a few years. At least it should be good for 2 or 3 phone upgrades until it will no longer interface with the latest smart phone they put out (probably just so they can sell you a new watch).

Let's face it, this gadget may or may not be a success by Apple standards, but it will almost certainly garner some market share from the lower end quartz watch segment.

I think we all agree though that it is not even competing with the luxury mechanical end of the market. Frankly, it seems to me the success of this thing depends more on how well it competes against the phone and this is a big question mark in my mind as long as it needs the phone to function. And if it was a stand alone device it would be difficult to compete against the phone, which has important inherent advantages over the watch. Some may find the convenience of having access to your phone's info on your wrist, others will not - especially not if it means having to leave your Rolex in the drawer.

[joe100]

Originally Posted by Tools

I can see the lines now at the Airport Terminal. Dozens of droopy eyed zombies with their wrists tethered to the lone charging station or against the wall outlet, waiting.................and waiting for their wrist to get enough power to "interact".

And another line against the boarding wall outlet, waiting for their wrist to charge because they have their boarding ticket on their watch to be scanned - but that was before the battery died.........


oh.......... and the throngs of slumped over crowds walking down the concourse yelling into their wrist in a thousand different languages...

I can hardly wait...

I fly a lot and I dunno about you but I DO NOT want to interact with my fellow traveler. My in-flight wifi time is mostly spent on TRF anyway haha! I find airport dwellers to be rude and mostly unpleasant so I keep to myself. Maybe it's becoming a cultural direction we're taking.

I'm going to get an AppleWatch for the novelty but I doubt I'll wear it outside the home anyway. Rolex or Apple watch, which will hold more cache in the end? We know the answer to that

[BJHofkin]

Originally Posted by Prism

The apple watch will loose significant value in less than a year, the Rolex won't. Enough said.

As I said in my original post, I'm not comparing the Apple Watch to Rolex.

[BJHofkin]

Good points—I guess you're right in that folks who buy, say, a Tag or a Longines aren't saying, "Well, I could afford a Rolex but I'll settle for something not nearly as well made and save some cash." For them, I suppose a Tag or Longines can be a grail watch, just as prized as a Rolex is for many folks here. And for those people the Apple Watch will not suffice.

But surely there are folks that would spend $1,000-$5,000 on a watch without putting a great deal of thought into the purchase—they just want a "nice watch." Might those people opt instead for the Apple Watch? I think a fair number might. And certainly many will choose the Apple Watch over a Kenneth Cole watch, right?

To me the battery argument doesn't hold a ton of water because we've accepted the phenomenon with phones and other gadgets. How easily could Apple come out with a dual phone and watch power cord? Now you're not even talking about an extra wire, and it would be so natural just to charge your phone and watch together at the end of the day.

Frankly I think a number of folks here are speaking from their personal preferences—which are going to be very specific because this is a Rolex forum, after all. My question was more about what people more broadly will choose…

Originally Posted by powerfunk

Looks just like every other smartwatch to me.



Completely disagree there. I think the reason most people buy Longines or Tag is pretty much the same reason most people buy Rolex and Patek. They want a nice, classy watch. Maybe brands like Citizen will see some slight trouble from this, but Longines etc.? I highly doubt it.

Wristwatches are more convenient than pocketwatches because our minds can read the time in a fraction of a second. It doesn't always make sense to take the extra 1 second to pull something out of your pocket, and it's not always polite to ostentatiously check the time. An extraordinarily brief glance at an analog clock/watch gives our brain all it needs to know about the time, but our brains cannot read text messages/weather/etc. all in a fraction of a second...so why not just pull out your phone? Just another "me-too" product of the post-Jobs era IMHO.

[vwpilot]

Originally Posted by BJHofkin

Good points—I guess you're right in that folks who buy, say, a Tag or a Longines aren't saying, "Well, I could afford a Rolex but I'll settle for something not nearly as well made and save some cash." For them, I suppose a Tag or Longines can be a grail watch, just as prized as a Rolex is for many folks here. And for those people the Apple Watch will not suffice.

But surely there are folks that would spend $1,000-$5,000 on a watch without putting a great deal of thought into the purchase—they just want a "nice watch." Might those people opt instead for the Apple Watch? I think a fair number might. And certainly many will choose the Apple Watch over a Kenneth Cole watch, right?

I dont know if even this is accurate. I bet there are people out there that can afford a Rolex who still buy a Longines or Tag. There are quite a few Tags that appeal to me more than most Rolex models and even with the ability to buy a Rolex (and understanding what they are both inside and out), would prefer to own two or three Tags instead because I like the styles more.

I think the $500-$1000 market may take the hit, I dont think anything in the mechanical world will really see any kind of significant impact as people buying them, whether Tag, Longines, Oris, Rolex, AP, or Patek, are buying them for reasons that are completely different than one would buy an AppleWatch.

[shnxx]

I must say I kind of want to buy the gold Apple Watch.

Talk me out of it guys.

[tfly212]

3 reason i wouldnt get one...

1. I think the battery will be an issue...having to charge it regularly via yet another proprietary cable that cant charge anything else will prove super annoying.

3. if they are popular do you really want to wear the same watch as everyone else?

3. There are also a few articles out there suggesting that a smart watch will make you look like a jerk. As checking the time in the middle of a conversation is commonly considered a sign that you are bored and wish to move on it will be hard not to appear rude when using the smart watch in any conversation.

[Tools]

This is a release in time for Christmas shopping.. It's just a gadget that will make a lot of Holiday money because kids already have everything else under the sun that needs a battery so you need something to put under the tree.

By next summer they will be in the same box as the old Game Boys, Nintendo, and Pong gadgets..

[The Joker]

I think the iwatch will be a huge success with kids and adults. Watched a few vids on youtube and think it's an attractive thing. In Sci-Fi movies I always check what they put on the characters wrist, and this looks like it could be straight out of a sci-fi movie.

So what if you have to take it off at night and rest it on it's charger, and of course it will be obsolete in 2-3 years, but it's relativity inexpensive.

Was playing golf the other day and my mate had an app on his iPhone that told him the yardage to the flag via GPS, and I thought that would be nice on your watch, rather than take your phone out the bag. Everyone I see is listening to music on their phones nowadays, would be nice to change the track without getting your phone out. But it's for all the things I can't think off that it would be useful, what with anybody able to write an app.

So don't think it will be a fad, and will have an impact on the lower-end of watch sales.

Not for me though, I hate my phone as is.

[T. Ferguson]

Originally Posted by Tools

This is a release in time for Christsmas shopping.. It's just a gadget that will make a lot of Holiday money because kids already have everything else under the sun that needs a battery so you need something to put under the tree.

By next summer they will be in the same box as the old Game Boys, Nintendo, and Pong gadgets..

It won't be out in time for Xmas this year. More like Easter 2015.

[Rondineli]

Totally agree with OP

[Baco Noir]

I disagree with the OP completely. This will not put a small dent in sales of <$5000 mechanical watches nor Gshocks. That's a totally different market sector. The mechanical watch buyer is looking for that - a mechanical watch. The G-Shock person is looking for something that's rugged and can handle a beating.

This will be bought by Apple fanboys, and people looking to buy a fashion watch.

[locutus49]

Let me provide an analogy. I collect antiquarian books, the leather-bound kind that are 100 - 300 years old that you see in personal libraries.

A similar discussion took place in the book world when e-books arrived. The consensus was that expensive antique books would continue to hold their value. This was 7 years ago or whenever the Kindle, etc. appeared.

Recently a book seller told me they get about half the price they used to (unless it is a very rare book), and that the value of my book collection has declined significantly as young people no longer aspire to build a library of leather-bound books. They don't see the point. (there are exceptions, of course).

So I'm not so optimistic about the long term BROAD interest in mechanicals. There will always be a small segment of collectors, but the young view these things differently.

[gliderpilot]

The majority of people buying a $5k+ watch do so to show status, not to tell time. Say Apple makes a distinct special edition watch that sells for $10k and includes 25 years of free HW upgrades? That would address the "feeling special" itch, longevity, and offer incomparable functionality to a mechanical watch. It is just a question of time when a much better battery technology eliminates the nuisance of charging as well.
The mechanical watch market might shrink to old-timers, collectors and other enthusiasts in our lifetime...



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[Rondineli]

Originally Posted by shnxx

I must say I kind of want to buy the gold Apple Watch.

Talk me out of it guys.

I want one too

[LightOnAHill]

Hi all,

So, looking closely at the way they designed the computer portion of the watch, being self contained, it is like a drop-in engine.

I don't expect they will upgrade the hardware by releasing whole new watches, but rather, by releasing new internal computers to be installed at their dealer locations, much like how often a Rolex is serviced.

They may release new cases and shapes in the future, but in no way would a company like apple that knows well how to manage its stock price make a solid gold case that would go obsolete just because some new chip or memory component was advanced.

I predict that one might purchase the watch and expect to own that case for five to ten years and have the option to upgrade internal hardware, battery, sensors, and such, or also the option to just buy a new device.

I'm considering the smaller of the gold ones, mostly for hunting so it can work as my gps device without me having to take my hands off my hunting equipment while stalking. I currently take my iphone with me as a GPS device - works great with predownloaded topo maps where there is no cell signal (and most likely won't be for 20 years). I won't have to pull the phone out of the pocket. I could even leave the phone in a waterproof case, in rain or rafting, etc... I think the red leather strap would be perfect as well for the harvest.

But, I'll still take it off when I get back to civilization and put on something more civilized, of course, that has hands made of metal and not pixels...

Good to be back safe on the grid everyone, missed this forum! God bless.