Will Rolex values drop significantly in the coming years?

[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by montecarlo77

what if wearing a wristwatch is something that millennials and their kids end up associating as something only old people or their grandparents do? Then wearing a wristwatch could become out of fashion and no longer a status symbol as many of the top gold pocket watch makers ended up as being.

That will not happen.

Your analysis overlooks an important element. Bracelets (many made of precious metal) have been worn by humans for thousands of years. A Rolex is simply a luxury bracelet that tells time.

Pocket watches lost their luster because they weren't convenient; it was an extra piece of equipment to have on you and you needed a free hand to use it. Once we figured out how to put watches on bracelets then wristwatches because a more convenient status symbol than a pocket watch. And they will continue to be so.

[grnbean]

FWIW I've been told by a local AD that Apple employees/execs are one of the best customers of Rolex, Patek and other high-end watches

[yannis]

Prices of Rolex in 5-10 years will be much higher than today.

[WS9D]

Originally Posted by marc2828

I do think this concept has merit, but you have 2 wrists. It may be a "watch" for time is on one wrist and a "health meter Fit bit" will be on the other. I look at the time a lot and I look at my large smart phone a lot, but never a little screen (i.e. Apple watch).

I have a smart phone, and many other time telling devices. I also own a fitbit (the slim alta hr model) for the health aspect. It is on one wrist, and a rolex is always on my other. I think many people will do the same in the future. As the health metrics tech evolves, it will become smaller, lighter, and less noticeable for those who don't want a clunky piece of whatever on their wrist. I foresee more people doing what I currently do.

I received an apple watch fro xmas one year. Tried it for a couple days, just didn't compare to the beauty of a fine mechanical Rolex. Exchanged it at the apple store for some other tech garbage I needed (I'm a tech geek).

I'm 37. Not young, not old, but I see others in my age range with a similar mindset. My 5-year-old already knows all the silly names for my watches. The pepsi, the coke, the james, his personal fav, which he calls his watch, is bluesy. I'm confident he will wear them in the future as he will grow up appreciating them. I'm sure others will raise their kids the same.

I work almost exclusively with kids 14-21 yrs old. It's amazing how many of them recognize that I'm wearing a rolex and compliment me whatever I'm wearing. One kid was even able to notice I wear several different references. These kids are neck deep in tech gear, but they still know and appreciate the brand whether it's prestige in their mind or whatever. They are the future buyers, and given their interest now, they will buy later. The brand isn't going anywhere and prices will remain constant.

[Switch]

Originally Posted by No SUBctitute

That will not happen.

Your analysis overlooks an important element. Bracelets (many made of precious metal) have been worn by humans for thousands of years. A Rolex is simply a luxury bracelet that tells time.

Pocket watches lost their luster because they weren't convenient; it was an extra piece of equipment to have on you and you needed a free hand to use it. Once we figured out how to put watches on bracelets then wristwatches because a more convenient status symbol than a pocket watch. And they will continue to be so.

Technically by your own logic, just as Rolex watches replaced metal bracelets of the past, so too will some future wrist-wear replace a Rolex. Be wary of your argumentative approach

[tomchicago]

When the economy and asset markets plunge into recession, Rolex prices will tank along with them.

[HogwldFLTR]

I have no idea!!! My membership to the Psychic Friends Network expired.

[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by Switch

Technically by your own logic, just as Rolex watches replaced metal bracelets of the past, so too will some future wrist-wear replace a Rolex. Be wary of your argumentative approach

Wrong. You are misstating my argument.

Rolex watches did not replace metal bracelets. Rolex watches ARE metal bracelets. They are jewelry.

Pocket watches were a trend of a couple hundred years, and fell by the wayside because they were bulky jewelry and inconvenient to use as a watch (needed a free hand to pick it up and read it).

However, metal bracelets have been worn for thousands of years. Once man figured out how to put a mechanical watch on a metal bracelet, then wristwatches because a very popular type of metal bracelet. Metal bracelets are jewelry that has stood the test of time. So, the original assessment that wristwatches will fall out of favor just like pocket watches fell out of favor is flawed because it fails to understand the history and use of metal bracelets in human history.

[rominvicta]

Originally Posted by Ks6pd

I have a smart phone, and many other time telling devices. I also own a fitbit (the slim alta hr model) for the health aspect. It is on one wrist, and a rolex is always on my other. I think many people will do the same in the future. As the health metrics tech evolves, it will become smaller, lighter, and less noticeable for those who don't want a clunky piece of whatever on their wrist. I foresee more people doing what I currently do.

I received an apple watch fro xmas one year. Tried it for a couple days, just didn't compare to the beauty of a fine mechanical Rolex. Exchanged it at the apple store for some other tech garbage I needed (I'm a tech geek).

I'm 37. Not young, not old, but I see others in my age range with a similar mindset. My 5-year-old already knows all the silly names for my watches. The pepsi, the coke, the james, his personal fav, which he calls his watch, is bluesy. I'm confident he will wear them in the future as he will grow up appreciating them. I'm sure others will raise their kids the same.

I work almost exclusively with kids 14-21 yrs old. It's amazing how many of them recognize that I'm wearing a rolex and compliment me whatever I'm wearing. One kid was even able to notice I wear several different references. These kids are neck deep in tech gear, but they still know and appreciate the brand whether it's prestige in their mind or whatever. They are the future buyers, and given their interest now, they will buy later. The brand isn't going anywhere and prices will remain constant.

My 11-year old son already made his mind which ones he wants me to keep for him. I am pretty sure one day he would be walking on my path as well.

[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by No SUBctitute

Wrong. You are misstating my argument.

Rolex watches did not replace metal bracelets. Rolex watches ARE metal bracelets. They are jewelry.

Pocket watches were a trend of a couple hundred years, and fell by the wayside because they were bulky jewelry and inconvenient to use as a watch (needed a free hand to pick it up and read it).

However, metal bracelets have been worn for thousands of years. Once man figured out how to put a mechanical watch on a metal bracelet, then wristwatches because a very popular type of metal bracelet. Metal bracelets are jewelry that has stood the test of time. So, the original assessment that wristwatches will fall out of favor just like pocket watches fell out of favor is flawed because it fails to understand the history and use of metal bracelets in human history.

We’re not saying there will no longer be anything on the wrist. We’re saying the competition for wrist real estate may be bad news for the mechanical watch, if a new device for the wrist is deemed dressage.

FWIW, the Apple link bracelet is one of the better metal bracelets out there, even compared to mechanicals.

[Switch]

Originally Posted by No SUBctitute

Wrong. You are misstating my argument.

Rolex watches did not replace metal bracelets. Rolex watches ARE metal bracelets. They are jewelry.

Pocket watches were a trend of a couple hundred years, and fell by the wayside because they were bulky jewelry and inconvenient to use as a watch (needed a free hand to pick it up and read it).

However, metal bracelets have been worn for thousands of years. Once man figured out how to put a mechanical watch on a metal bracelet, then wristwatches because a very popular type of metal bracelet. Metal bracelets are jewelry that has stood the test of time. So, the original assessment that wristwatches will fall out of favor just like pocket watches fell out of favor is flawed because it fails to understand the history and use of metal bracelets in human history.

I miss-stated nothing . Napoleon should've checked his day date before invading Russia

[hsm]

I suppose nothing is forever,

I have an old air cooled 911,

they say that the young of today have no interest in the significance of this particular iconic car, well, when I am out and about in it, the young are the ones looking at it and asking questions,

I think rolex and other high end mechanical watches will live through change,

there will always be a big market for rolex, young and old, its hand made and luxurious and there are waiting lists,

like an old 911 really.

[Eva123]

Nobody knows what will happen in the future as technology is changing many things and there are predictions that many jobs will disappear but many new professions will also appear. Accordingly, nobody knows whether after (let's say) 20 years everybody will be wearing electronic gadget who will be monitoring your health and perform many other functions...

However, I see the following trends:

1) Many people who are in my circle and are able to afford > USD 10k watches are not wearing any watch or like to wear Apple / Android watch. When I asked my colleague why he is not wearing is almost new Panerai (gift from his wife), he just simple answered that Apple watch is more convenient for him. Another colleague, who is a pretty big boss in international company is wearing a simple electronic watch because he is not watch fan and does not have any clue about horology and etc.

2) Latest research show that current millennial generation have less actual income comparing to their parents as prices for food, education, housing are extremely expensive. Usually you can buy Rolex or similar watch when you have free disposable income.

3) Current Rolex prices are relatively high and if they become even higher in the future (mainly due to inflation and Rolex policy to increase prices over years) means that these watches will be less affordable for many people. Now SS Rolex is still affordable, however, full gold or platinum watches are attainable only for a very small fraction of society. People who spent time on TRF can get a wrong impression that very expensive watches are affordable to large part of society. TRF mainly (and sadly) represents only a small part of society who is really lucky.

Currently Rolex is a status symbol. Many people who have Rolex or other high-end watches do not have any clue about horology and do not think that they are art. For example, I asked my friend who is official billionaire why did you buy PP his answer was simple - for the status only. He does not care about its value, about horology, whether his watch is accurate or not.

In my opinion, Rolex and other high end firms will always be status symbols and jewelry for men. Sometimes it is funny to read in the forum when people still saying that Rolex is still "tool watch". However, how many of you rely on Rolox Chronograph or diving functions in reality. I was wearing chronograph watch for 15 years but never used chronograph in real life.

I assume that in the future Rolex will be focusing for PM watches, their prices will be much higher but volume of sales will decrease due to demographic shift.

[Livermoron]

i know of several guys in my office in their late 20s one has a Bluesy white gold sub, another guy has a 5 digit reference sea dweller and a Daytona. so these younger guys are buying nice pieces. i wouldn't worry.

[Onikage]

Whoever bought the Paul Newman would be inconsolable.

[Godfather111]

Originally Posted by Godfather111

I agree.

If anything, I think Rolex will remain desirable in the future, while other luxury watches fall by the wayside.

On second thought, I change my answer.

As the title states, the value of all your Rolexes will drop significantly in the coming years. Rolex will literally become a Fossil. Be warned. The sky is falling! The young fellows of the future will not care about your Rolex baubles and your trinkets. Not while they're in their self-driving flying cars being serviced by robotic paramours!

So sell me all your Submariners, GMTs and Daytonas at quarter price now while you still have quarter price to collect! Hurry! Hurry! Git to the choppah!

[j0oftheworld]

A longtime jeweler told me a few months ago that inexpensive watches have suffered from the iphone/cell revolution but quality/vintage timepieces have only gathered steam.
You can see this from the 17M Newman all the way down to 1680's now in 5 figures.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by douglasf13

I certainly can't see it with Porsche. Rolex and Ferrari will both have to change, eventually, so we'll see how they handle it.

p.s. Just to be clear, even though I'm arguing for the potential decline of Rolex as a mechanical watch maker, I'm not rooting for it. I mean, I'm still a "Xenial" guy wearing watches, spinning records and strumming 80 year old acoustic guitars. I'll likely be one of the "niche" guys. What will be really funny is all of the old guys in 40 years making fun of the young "hipsters" wearing mechanical watches, just like we see know with young guys with handlebar mustaches and pocket watches.

Sure I know you are just advocating the devil to stimulate the discussion.

I actually think Rolex and Ferrari will have to change less than Porsche as they are considered by the general public as the two truly high luxury, unobtainable, Veblen goods, whereas Porsche has made concessions in the price area and can be more easily bought so they are perceived to be a step down, even tho the brand name remains incredibly strong.

So, as we will always have rich, and aspiring to be rich people, unless capitalism capitulates as well, they will always want exclusive luxury and status signifiers, and if anything Rolex will have to raise prices to obtain this conspicuous consumption and draw a clear distinction between its own brand of luxury and any other luxury watch or future emerging Veblen competition. Similarly, the true high luxury brands like PP and AP should always have a loyal market.

[brandrea]

More watches for the rest of us dinosaurs

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Roll the Lex

Rolex is and always will be an aspirational item to own.

As long as the trend setters, the wealthy, the Instagram set, etc. keep on buying Rolexes and dictating that it is something to aspire to own, I think that the desire for a Rolex will trickle down to the masses.

Apple tried to force this with the gold Apple watches by given them out to celebrities and having them get out and about. Didn't really work.

I think we'll have a problem when the Instagram set put an Apple Watch rather than a Rolex next to a Goyard wallet, the latest iPhone, and a set of keys to a Ferrari.

The issue the iwatches have is price, they are just too cheap to show off so they can never have the same jaw-dropping impact that instas crave, and so as I said above Rolex will need to keep prices significantly above any iwatch or whatever emerging Veblen good that tries to play in their space.

Originally Posted by montecarlo77

AK797: You brought up cars and today on CNBC Bob Lutz the former Vice Chairman of GM said that the end of the car industry is near, and that nobody will own cars in the future. He seems to believe that autonomous vehicles owned by companies like Uber will make serious inroads and then governments will ban human drivers because they will be the only remaining major source of accidents and traffic problems. Things for the auto industry are clearly changing in the coming years as well...

Well cars have pollution and safety issues so for the masses who see cars as merely a means to an end these will be very important, just like the itech benefits are with Casio and Timex buyers, but many rich and aspiring people will still want to drive high performance and luxury cars and while rich people rule the world, as we see more clearly every day - even the sainted Queen has come under fire here for being a tax dodger, they will always be allowed their indulgences.

Whatever the 1% and indeed 0.1% want is what will determine everything, not a pesky few billion people. Sad but true.

[watchwatcher]

Originally Posted by brandrea

More watches for the rest of us dinosaurs

Amen, brother.

[breitlings]

Originally Posted by tomchicago

When the economy and asset markets plunge into recession, Rolex prices will tank along with them.

haven’t they increased 25% in the last 8 months?

[tomchicago]

WHEN, my dear....when. We are still living in a human system (the economy, asset markets) with all the same vulnerabilities as any other time in history.

Originally Posted by breitlings

haven’t they increased 25% in the last 8 months?

[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by j0oftheworld

A longtime jeweler told me a few months ago that inexpensive watches have suffered from the iphone/cell revolution but quality/vintage timepieces have only gathered steam.
You can see this from the 17M Newman all the way down to 1680's now in 5 figures.

I think this makes sense, if not for anything else than pushback against something new, but who knows if it’ll last long term.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by douglasf13

Rolex is still a mass produced luxury company. Up until this year, Rolex was the biggest selling watch brand in the world, and they sell a lot of watches. This isn’t Patek we’re talking about.

Anecdotally, go over to Mac forums, and you’ll find lots of Rolex owners who bought the Apple Watch. Rolex will be fine for a while, but 10 years down the road? I’d be a little concerned.

I’d call the Apple Watch more Tesla than Prius. They still have Hermès and ceramic models. Spending $1300 (ceramic version) on a watch that will only last a year or two is still relatively extravagant.

But why should we assume that Apple watch sales figures are even close to as relevant as Rolex figures? When Apple claims they are the number 1 selling watch, they really are only selling a larger quantity of a low entry price item to a broader global marketplace that is more easily able to access a less pricey product. Those consumers were never considering an Apple watch over a Rolex watch. It was never in the conversation and definitely not an economic perfect substitute. Those that own Apple watch and Rolex, it's pennies on the dollar essentially to add an Apple Watch to an existing collection.

Owning an Apple watch and a Rolex watch are not mutually exclusive. Since we're talking about vehicles in many analogies, let's look at this one:

Owning an Apple watch is like owning a Vespa. Owning a Rolex is like owning a Porsche 911

Nobody forges a 911 to get a Vespa.

[Mystro]

It’s all speculation that doesn’t even matter. In the end, who gives a rip as long as you are wearing a Rolex and are happy 30 years from now. God willing, I will still have a Rolex on my wrist, a Steinway in my living room and a few classic Lespauls hung on my studio walls. What do I care what the a younger generation will think of my style and value system as I won’t value their opinion anyway.

[hulkalicious]

er no they will just go up

[toomann]

Left wrist



Right wrist


Perhaps this is not fashionable but it works for me. Although the health monitor on my left wrist tells time, it's not what I wear it for.

[Uhtred59]

Pretty sure that people are people (but I read history so am not condemned to relive it), don't buy fades, buy quality, buy what makes you happy. All will be alright.

[faz]

Originally Posted by Onikage

Whoever bought the Paul Newman would be inconsolable.