CONFIRMED news regarding the professional line

[padi56]

Originally Posted by mattza

I'm not saying everyone has low-paid jobs in Hong Kong, he said that even people with low-paid jobs all own Rolexes there (bus drivers, low level store clerks, etc).

Nothing wrong with that, I was just curious as why that is prevalant there in HK

I guess its just priorities. If I was not making much money my priority would not be to go out and buy a $10,000 watch.

Originally Posted by mattza

How is everyone affording Rolexes there? Especially with low-paid jobs?

Well your quote most certainly did.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Krash

That only applies if Rolex increases prices. Rolex doesn’t benefit if gray dealers can sell a SS Ceramic Daytona for $18K. So the Veblen argument makes very little sense here.


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If Rolex raise prices, demand will not fall, as greys will just pass on the higher prices so flippers are still happy, and genuine customers are now conditioned that the watches should be more expensive than current retail. Rolex would have to increase supply to counter the grey price, and that is not going to happen, so this is probably why Rolex haven't raised prices and instead are targeting flippers to starve the greys.

[mattza]

Originally Posted by padi56

Well your quote most certainly did.

He said everyone has Rolexes there including everyone with low-income jobs

My question encompassed that, perhaps there is some social thing in HK where everyone needs/wants a Rolex.

I don't typically see low income people here wearing a $10,000+ luxury item unless it was handed down to them so it interests me how its different in HK. Hell, I live in a very expensive area and rarely see Rolexes. I'm far from rich myself but I was able to comfortably afford mine still (and not taking a loan of financing it like he said they do there)

[037]

Originally Posted by AK797

It is, LVc price action since Aug gives empirical evidence, demand surges on disco rumours and supply doesn't change at all, then when rumours prove false in Mar the new price is now set and doesn't fall as you'd expect with a normal good. Same with the BLNR.

Yup. Overwhelming hype online and speculation are likely the two big culprits. My local AD still gets the LVc and BLNR. The difference today is they don't sit as long in the display case. Even the more common references like the Sub LN and GMT LN don't last long like they once did. More people are buying these watches than a couple years ago.

Rolex can't keep up. They had to move to an allocation model just to keep supply fair across dealers. That makes it look like it's being choked on purpose when it's more likely a simple attempt at evening out their distribution.

Edit: I also agree with you on price increases. I don't see that happening either, and definitely not without an increase in supply.

[Eric-London]

Originally Posted by AK797

If Rolex raise prices, demand will not fall, as greys will just pass on the higher prices so flippers are still happy, and genuine customers are now conditioned that the watches should be more expensive than current retail. Rolex would have to increase supply to counter the grey price, and that is not going to happen, so this is probably why Rolex haven't raised prices and instead are targeting flippers to starve the greys.

Couldn’t agree more!

[Krash]

Originally Posted by AK797

so this is probably why Rolex haven't raised prices and instead are targeting flippers to starve the greys.

Conspiracy theory. No proof. Just speculation.


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[Krash]

Occam’s Razor: the simplest explantation is usually the right one. In this case, it’s a simple matter of excessive demand for some models while other models sit in the display case for weeks / months. It’s not more complicated than that.


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[thesharkfactor]

Originally Posted by mattza

He said everyone has Rolexes there including everyone with low-income jobs

My question encompassed that, perhaps there is some social thing in HK where everyone needs/wants a Rolex.

I don't typically see low income people here wearing a $10,000+ luxury item unless it was handed down to them so it interests me how its different in HK. Hell, I live in a very expensive area and rarely see Rolexes. I'm far from rich myself but I was able to comfortably afford mine still (and not taking a loan of financing it like he said they do there)

Given China is where the fakes come from, I would suspect the majority of Rolex you see in China are fake. They fake everything there, you can buy a fake Apple from a fake Apple shop.. you can buy a fake Land Rover.

[MonsterSS]

Originally Posted by thesharkfactor

Given China is where the fakes come from, I would suspect the majority of Rolex you see in China are fake. They fake everything there, you can buy a fake Apple from a fake Apple shop.. you can buy a fake Land Rover.

LOL, buying a fake apple at the apple shop...

[Bostonbert]

Originally Posted by Krash

Occam’s Razor: the simplest explantation is usually the right one. In this case, it’s a simple matter of excessive demand for some models while other models sit in the display case for weeks / months. It’s not more complicated than that.


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So why did the local grey shop in Boston have 3 Batman and 3 ceramic Daytona for sale? They have a shop so they had the watches on hand. These were well above MRSP. The rare watches are at grey dealers, but not at ADs.

[generalding]

Originally Posted by thesharkfactor

Given China is where the fakes come from, I would suspect the majority of Rolex you see in China are fake. They fake everything there, you can buy a fake Apple from a fake Apple shop.. you can buy a fake Land Rover.

Your suspicion is quite wrong. Although some bad people produce counterfeit watches in China, Chinese market contributes significantly to the Swiss watch, Apple, and Land Rover sales business.
According to Bloomberg (title: Maybe Just All the Growth in Luxury Watches Is Coming From China), HK market alone in Swiss watch sales has overtaken US since 2007, and mainland China sales are catching up. HK and mainland China market combined produced a more than 3 billion usd watch market (equivalent to 300k Rolex of 10k usd price) annually.
You say people who buy 3 billion usd worth of watches in China is a small fraction of people who you see wear Rolex on street?

[thesharkfactor]

I dunno..? But I do know they make a lot of Whiskey in Scotland and we drink a lot of Whiskey in Scotland..

[037]

Originally Posted by Bostonbert

So why did the local grey shop in Boston have 3 Batman and 3 ceramic Daytona for sale? They have a shop so they had the watches on hand. These were well above MRSP. The rare watches are at grey dealers, but not at ADs.

It's enticing for retail buyers to flip these references for a quick profit to grey dealers in the current climate.

Make no mistake that Rolex makes a ton of BLNRs. We think they're rare because they're always out of stock. But, look online and there are almost as many BLNRs for sale as there are LN GMTs. The BLNR has only been made for 5 years but the LN just passed 11. If production numbers were close then we'd see exponentially more LNs out there yet the BLNR is available in huge numbers comparatively. I'd venture to guess fewer LNs are being produced these days because BLNRs sell faster.

Regarding the stainless Daytona, people see them as an easy $5~6k once the call comes in. And, some flip because they find it too small for their wrist given that it wears like a 39mm. Greys offer retail buyer good money for them because they sell quickly in turn. It's quick, easy money all-around.

So, just because greys have watches in stock doesn't mean much. These watches originally went through ADs at some point. Some watches might go out the back door through unscrupulous ADs but I doubt those numbers are very high overall. It simply makes for a good conspiracy.

[Old Expat Beast]

Originally Posted by thesharkfactor

Given China is where the fakes come from, I would suspect the majority of Rolex you see in China are fake. They fake everything there, you can buy a fake Apple from a fake Apple shop.. you can buy a fake Land Rover.

You just reported someone for mentioning fakes in a post yet you already posted this?

Thread closed.