Patek 5170P long term collectability ?

[benlee]

I am quite close to pulling the trigger on a 5170P, baring any new pieces that I will like even more this coming Baselworld. I have been eyeing this for a long time. In person, it's a stunning watch and without question the nicest of the 5170 series and one of the most beautiful PP I have seen. The fact that it has this amazing blue dial and in platinum ( I don't have platinum watches ) makes all the more desirable.

However, 5170s isn't known to have great resale. Even 5170P which is a short run, it is not difficult to find them in AD, at least for now. My Patek sales rep however is convinced that they will soon fly off the shelves given that it's discontinued. However, historical evidence seems to suggest 5170s are slow movers even if they are discontinued. I can still find 5170J or G lingering at AD display unsold.

I haven't collect PP long enough to know what happen to 5070s but I was told these didn't take off until the entire line was discontinued and prices went thru the roof.

Usually I don't care too much about resale for most watches, but at this price point, I will be dishonest to say it doesn't matter.

Another curveball suggestion will be to top up more and get the 5740G instead which, according to many have nearly "guaranteed" collectivity as a Nautilus.

Insights from fellow collectors here are much appreciated. Thanks in advance.

BTW, throw in a pic of 5170P for good measure.






The 5740G Perpetual calendar Nautilus in white gold.

[mineral]

Hi Ben, I will go for the Nautilus in this case if you can get one. I have quite similar experience with platinum calatrava. I purchased the brand new world timer considering that it is platinum and icon of Patek line. It ends up in the safe all the times. On other hand, I have the nautilus and aquanaut which I find myself will enjoy them in longer term wise.

Of course the Patek chronograph is different from the world timer, but I still think Nautilus is safer bet :)




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[HL65]

I would not count on any 5170 being collectible. I think if you buy it for retail expect to lose an easy 30% plus day one. I can tell you that a few I know got theirs for really strong prices and right around that number. So if you want collectible or one that will retain value look at another option other than a 5170 P or not.

PS It is a beautiful watch without a doubt!

[Ichiran]

The 5740 is very hard to get as I understand the VVIP in my area are strangling each other to get there. The market price is already reflecting this phenomenon.

It's still too early to even make a prediction on the 5170p. As soon as the recent discontinuation news got out, all the pieces were sold in my 2 major ADs. This piece may do well IMO but will take a bit more time. It is a very beautiful piece and the 40mm size is always a sweet spot for collectors. The production run is also very short.

[Vipes]

I think it will do better than the discontinued J and G versions. Shorter production run and platinum makes it more desirable, IMO. In a few years, it may be worth retail on the secondary market but hard to see it moving higher. I hope it does cause I have one and really enjoying it. Can't go wrong with the 5740G in terms of value retention. Just look how much the 5711/1r and 5980/1r are going for now on the secondary market.

[dsk28]

I find both very beautiful Ben, the 5170P is a massive piece though with the Platinum case and the oh-so-subtle baguette diamond markers. To compare it with the 5740G is a mismatch though as the 5740G is, in my opinion, 1 level above the 5170P.

If you are factoring maximum future value retention on this piece (finally?) I suggest trying to get the 5740G, but I honestly think that you will appreciate the 5170P more.

[s.m.b.]

Originally Posted by benlee

I have been eyeing this for a long time. In person, it's a stunning watch and without question the nicest of the 5170 series and one of the most beautiful PP I have seen.

What more motivation do you really need? There are times when you just have to buy a watch because you love the watch.

[Racerdj]

There is nothing else like the Patek Platinum series and adding the blue dial is captivating. Forget the collectability and only purchase if you really like it after seeing it and you receive a great price too. I was wanting to add one (P) for years and waited for the right model.

[ap1]

Purchase approved. It’s spectacular. May not runaway but if you don’t sell it quickly I think you will be ok. Hopefully the dealers arent firming up now that it’s disco

[soundserious]

Is there something that you’d rather have at that price? For example, I’d rather have a vintage Daytona for that kind of money. But hey, your gig.

[Bearxj86]

I think if you can get it in the mid 60s it should retain value well with some upside. Anything above $75k and it will likely be a few years before you'll be break even. It is also hard when there is so much competition vs. Lange Datograph (39 and 41mm platinum), against the 5070G, against the 1815, and other manual wind chronos.

Remember, Patek made ALOT of 5170 in all variants. I don't have the production numbers but you can find the G or R or J at most Patek ADs (I visited about 10 Patek ADs in 2018 in Japan, Taiwan, Shanghai and several in the US and every one had a 5170 and 4 had the P). The P also was being traded at wholesale in the mid 60s at the low point.

However, one must admit that the watch is stunning. I myself would love to own one but it doesn't yet pass my value retention test compared to some other watches on my list.

Finally at mid 70s, here are some options:
1) Patek 3970 (do I need to say anymore?)
2) Patek 5070J or R or G with probably about 15k left to spare
3) Lange Datograph 39mm (Dufourograph) + 30k to spare
4) 1815 limited edition Lange Chrono + 30k to spare
5) Lots of vintage watches

[benlee]

Originally Posted by mineral

Hi Ben, I will go for the Nautilus in this case if you can get one. I have quite similar experience with platinum calatrava. I purchased the brand new world timer considering that it is platinum and icon of Patek line. It ends up in the safe all the times. On other hand, I have the nautilus and aquanaut which I find myself will enjoy them in longer term wise.

Of course the Patek chronograph is different from the world timer, but I still think Nautilus is safer bet :)

Indeed Nautilus is a much safer bet due to value retention at least for the near future. Yet to be honest between these two watches, purely on looks, the 5170J still sings to me more.

Originally Posted by HL65

I would not count on any 5170 being collectible. I think if you buy it for retail expect to lose an easy 30% plus day one. I can tell you that a few I know got theirs for really strong prices and right around that number. So if you want collectible or one that will retain value look at another option other than a 5170 P or not.

PS It is a beautiful watch without a doubt!

Thank you for your insight Ken. Indeed previous versions for 5170s have not done well. I wonder its because the price is too high relative to say a 1815 chrono from Lange and without the price retention advantage. I will not be expecting any appreciation but if can retain at least 70% of my purchase price it will not be bad.

Originally Posted by Ichiran

The 5740 is very hard to get as I understand the VVIP in my area are strangling each other to get there. The market price is already reflecting this phenomenon.

It's still too early to even make a prediction on the 5170p. As soon as the recent discontinuation news got out, all the pieces were sold in my 2 major ADs. This piece may do well IMO but will take a bit more time. It is a very beautiful piece and the 40mm size is always a sweet spot for collectors. The production run is also very short.

Yes, indeed 5740G is very hard to get! As I current still have a meagre collection of PP, I won't even dare to ask. LOL.

Originally Posted by Vipes

I think it will do better than the discontinued J and G versions. Shorter production run and platinum makes it more desirable, IMO. In a few years, it may be worth retail on the secondary market but hard to see it moving higher. I hope it does cause I have one and really enjoying it. Can't go wrong with the 5740G in terms of value retention. Just look how much the 5711/1r and 5980/1r are going for now on the secondary market.

Yes, the shorter runs helps but less supply is balanced by less demand due to PT pricing? Not sure, I guess only time will tell.

Originally Posted by dsk28

I find both very beautiful Ben, the 5170P is a massive piece though with the Platinum case and the oh-so-subtle baguette diamond markers. To compare it with the 5740G is a mismatch though as the 5740G is, in my opinion, 1 level above the 5170P.

If you are factoring maximum future value retention on this piece (finally?) I suggest trying to get the 5740G, but I honestly think that you will appreciate the 5170P more.

Indeed the heart says 5170P as you know I am not that big a fan of white metal Nautilus. It's a big purchase so have to decide carefully.

Originally Posted by s.m.b.

What more motivation do you really need? There are times when you just have to buy a watch because you love the watch.

True, but at this price point, value retention factors in. It's a delicate balance.

Originally Posted by Racerdj

There is nothing else like the Patek Platinum series and adding the blue dial is captivating. Forget the collectability and only purchase if you really like it after seeing it and you receive a great price too. I was wanting to add one (P) for years and waited for the right model.

Maybe I have to clarify. What I am after is not collectability as in long term appreciation of value, just that it doesn't sink too much. Love the 5170P no doubt.

Originally Posted by ap1

Purchase approved. It’s spectacular. May not runaway but if you don’t sell it quickly I think you will be ok. Hopefully the dealers arent firming up now that it’s disco

Spectacular pic !!

Originally Posted by soundserious

Is there something that you’d rather have at that price? For example, I’d rather have a vintage Daytona for that kind of money. But hey, your gig.

Thanks. But I am not really into vintage.

Originally Posted by bearxj86

I think if you can get it in the mid 60s it should retain value well with some upside. Anything above $75k and it will likely be a few years before you'll be break even. It is also hard when there is so much competition vs. Lange Datograph (39 and 41mm platinum), against the 5070G, against the 1815, and other manual wind chronos.

Remember, Patek made ALOT of 5170 in all variants. I don't have the production numbers but you can find the G or R or J at most Patek ADs (I visited about 10 Patek ADs in 2018 in Japan, Taiwan, Shanghai and several in the US and every one had a 5170 and 4 had the P). The P also was being traded at wholesale in the mid 60s at the low point.

However, one must admit that the watch is stunning. I myself would love to own one but it doesn't yet pass my value retention test compared to some other watches on my list.

Finally at mid 70s, here are some options:
1) Patek 3970 (do I need to say anymore?)
2) Patek 5070J or R or G with probably about 15k left to spare
3) Lange Datograph 39mm (Dufourograph) + 30k to spare
4) 1815 limited edition Lange Chrono + 30k to spare
5) Lots of vintage watches

Thanks for the reply. Indeed these are strong alternatives. (3) esp is a strong option but I have to go preown.

[onmyhand]

Ben,
Get the 5170p. Get it quick.
After 14 PPs in the last 4 years,
I have been told to wait as there are many more higher VIPs on line.

Get the 5170 now, in view of speculations that it will be discontinued. Then you would have the double pleasure of having a watch you like and knowing there's a potential of it being harder to get in the future.

Cheers.

[tom2517]

Nice strategy for Patek, and we kept falling for it.

Discontinue unpopular models to help get rid of unsold stock in anticipation for future rise in value.

It may still work for 5170P, but one of these days it will fall flat on their face.

[benlee]

Originally Posted by tom2517

Nice strategy for Patek, and we kept falling for it.

Discontinue unpopular models to help get rid of unsold stock in anticipation for future rise in value.

It may still work for 5170P, but one of these days it will fall flat on their face.

Yup. And the ADs already got the memo and are already playing games now that there is sudden interest in this reference as it will be discontinued. One is asking for 100% deposit to secure the watch while another suddenly withdrawn discount. Kind of a damper.

[tom2517]

Originally Posted by benlee

Yup. And the ADs already got the memo and are already playing games now that there is sudden interest in this reference as it will be discontinued. One is asking for 100% deposit to secure the watch while another suddenly withdrawn discount. Kind of a damper.

Withdrawn discount? Bummer.

[ragsk]

The 5170p just look so awesome. I assume that is your wrist?

[benlee]

Originally Posted by ragsk

The 5170p just look so awesome. I assume that is your wrist?

Yes it is.

[ragsk]

Ben did you decide what to do?

There was a 5070P in the Patek boutique in Bond Street today. Lovely gorgeous watch. Tried it on and kept it there for a full 15 mins......

[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Ben did you decide what to do?

There was a 5070P in the Patek boutique in Bond Street today. Lovely gorgeous watch. Tried it on and kept it there for a full 15 mins......

A 5070P available in the Patek Salon?

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by Sam Philip

A 5070P available in the Patek Salon?

Sorry typo.....I wish.....

5170P !

[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Sorry typo.....I wish.....

5170P !

No worries. 5170P is a very beautiful watch too. Hopefully we may see a steel version next month!

[Calatrava r]

Buy the 5170P. Its a great watch IMO. Used I have seen then at about 80K, used retail, so it is about a 30 percent hit out the door if you pay full MSRP. These pieces may surprise and do quite well long term.

[pam66]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

I think if you can get it in the mid 60s it should retain value well with some upside. Anything above $75k and it will likely be a few years before you'll be break even. It is also hard when there is so much competition vs. Lange Datograph (39 and 41mm platinum), against the 5070G, against the 1815, and other manual wind chronos.

Remember, Patek made ALOT of 5170 in all variants. I don't have the production numbers but you can find the G or R or J at most Patek ADs (I visited about 10 Patek ADs in 2018 in Japan, Taiwan, Shanghai and several in the US and every one had a 5170 and 4 had the P). The P also was being traded at wholesale in the mid 60s at the low point.

However, one must admit that the watch is stunning. I myself would love to own one but it doesn't yet pass my value retention test compared to some other watches on my list.

Finally at mid 70s, here are some options:
1) Patek 3970 (do I need to say anymore?)
2) Patek 5070J or R or G with probably about 15k left to spare
3) Lange Datograph 39mm (Dufourograph) + 30k to spare
4) 1815 limited edition Lange Chrono + 30k to spare
5) Lots of vintage watches

does the datograp datograph pass the value retention test? i hear they are very tough to sell, new and preowned.

[benlee]

Originally Posted by ragsk

Ben did you decide what to do?

There was a 5070P in the Patek boutique in Bond Street today. Lovely gorgeous watch. Tried it on and kept it there for a full 15 mins......

Originally Posted by ragsk

Sorry typo.....I wish.....

5170P !

I have contacted Patek Salon 5170P and indeed they have a few 5170P available. Unfortunately, they are not able to hold it for me and they think it will be sold off by the time I goto London in June.

[SimpleMan91]

This piece is just magical. Tourneu confirmed with me that they have sold all their remaining pieces in the entire company at full MSRP. Last month they had 2 left in the company. Can’t get any.

Watches of Switzerland in NYC sold theirs too at retail. They only had 1 piece.

Seems like from my understanding there are no more discounts on them from AD’s. (Please don’t attack, and speak to your ADs first. Every AD I called (besides for Tourneu (in all states) and WoS NYC which are sold out) said they don’t have and won’t receive.

I believe dramatic change in prices will happen in the upcoming years. All I know a Tiffany dial 5170P just sold for $130k in the grey market. That should say something about the future. Even a little bit right?

Cheers




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[ap1]

buyem up fellas. She won’t disappoint




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[Vipes]

Originally Posted by ap1

buyem up fellas. She won’t disappoint




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Think I need the tang. What size is yours? 16mm? Thanks.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by Vipes

Think I need the tang. What size is yours? 16mm? Thanks.

What size is my wrist? 6.5 inches. Yeah man - Patek deployants not comfy for the small wrist. I didn’t even mess with orig strap. Had mine delivered right on blue strap with platinum tang. Have the deployant and orig strap sitting in coffin
For the next buyer at 150k lol. Should add - short strap was too short, not enough tail for my liking.
I’m on second tightest standard strap. It’s the curse of small wristers and leather imo

For ref have my 519 on ee both sides

[Vipes]

Originally Posted by ap1

What size is my wrist? 6.5 inches. Yeah man - Patek deployants not comfy for the small wrist. I didn’t even mess with orig strap. Had mine delivered right on blue strap with platinum tang. Have the deployant and orig strap sitting in coffin
For the next buyer at 150k lol. Should add - short strap was too short, not enough tail for my liking.
I’m on second tightest standard strap. It’s the curse of small wristers and leather imo

For ref have my 519 on ee both sides

Nah, the size of the tang buckle. Is it 16mm?