Thrilled to be seeing watches sit! Bumps away!

[ToneLok]

So many speculators cleaning out ADs and buying up every Sub, GMT, and Daytona that it was only a matter of time before the music stopped and they ended up without a chair. I just want a damn watch, so it’s rather satisfying to see the BLNRs and the rest now toiling away with multiple bumps. They are $9k watches, not $15K watches. Next bubble to burst will be the Nautilus. Will be a happy day to pay retail or try one on in an AD again.

[Sunny Arizona]

agree, current pricing with the gray dealers and AD issues are somewhat comical

[The Libertine]

Originally Posted by Sunny Arizona

agree, current pricing with the gray dealers and AD issues are somewhat comical

Agree as well.

[peterpl]

Just be patient. I have a feeling its the start of the collapse.

None of these pieces are moving fast and not for their advertised prices these days.

[exador]

Takuya still seems to have no problems flogging Pepsis for $18k...

[AJMarcus]

I don’t see it happening anytime soon guys. Why the enthusiasm? Last time I checked, today, AD shelves are empty and only the unlovable Rolexes are in the cases. And grays are selling watches at crazy high prices. Something I’m missing?

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by AJMarcus

I don’t see it happening anytime soon guys. Why the enthusiasm? Last time I checked, today, AD shelves are empty and only the unlovable Rolexes are in the cases. And grays are selling watches at crazy high prices. Something I’m missing?

I think OP's point is that these grey watches aren't rapidly selling at listed price as they were a couple months ago, so this is perhaps indicia of a turning of the tide, if you will. Could be a logical fallacy to think this way, of course.

[Sub Capt.]

Nobody “needs” any of these watches and frankly if they were sitting in all the AD’s cases most would not care about them. Obviously some new model will be hot for a time....

T

[steve099]

Only the SKyD blue and Pepsi seem like they are actually in short supply (in that order)..the rest are abundant and artificially inflated.

Saw some Hulks listed for 14k last week, 13's wont be far behind.

[pepsiretail]

Originally Posted by steve099

Only the SKyD blue and Pepsi seem like they are actually in short supply (in that order)..the rest are abundant and artificially inflated.

Saw some Hulks listed for 14k last week, 13's wont be far behind.

Agreed.

[BobDyl]

Have to agree with the OP and was going to comment on this anyway. On the 8 stores that I follow regularly, inventory has been sitting around for a *long* time - weeks if not months for some desirable pieces. Things are without question getting softer. Is it summer doldrums or a big change? I'm guessing the latter as the world economy slows.

[pkincy]

We may not have a recession here, but Europe has problems as does the Emerging Markets and China growth is slowing dramatically. In the US the consumer is king and is holding up our GDP, but Rolex sells worldwide. The UK likely will suffer over the next year with Brexit, so smart people are keeping their money liquid not buying watches. That has to affect Rolex and other unnecessary purchases of luxury goods.

[Wrist King]

Originally Posted by pkincy

We may not have a recession here, but Europe has problems as does the Emerging Markets and China growth is slowing dramatically. In the US the consumer is king and is holding up our GDP, but Rolex sells worldwide. The UK likely will suffer over the next year with Brexit, so smart people are keeping their money liquid not buying watches. That has to affect Rolex and other unnecessary purchases of luxury goods.

This is just names of locations and some nonsense. EM wealth is growing rapidly as middle income consumer classes join the worlds shoppers. Mature markets like the UK will be affected if the currency collapses, nothing else.

Sent from my SM-G9730 using Tapatalk

[jimmytamp]

Originally Posted by steve099

Only the SKyD blue and Pepsi seem like they are actually in short supply (in that order)..the rest are abundant and artificially inflated.

Saw some Hulks listed for 14k last week, 13's wont be far behind.

I agree that Pepsi is still one of the hot watch in the market. There was a new 126710BLNR sold at $16,995 recently in the sales here at the forum and another one listed at $15900.

Cheers


Watch Lover

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by steve099

Only the SKyD blue and Pepsi seem like they are actually in short supply (in that order)..the rest are abundant and artificially inflated.

Saw some Hulks listed for 14k last week, 13's wont be far behind.

Agree on SkyD, would put DaytonaC right there with BLRO, if not higher.

[Aztro]

Every YouTube I follow that is either a dealer or has strong links to them say the price is dropping and many greys have way too much inventory. This could crunch pretty seriously over the next couple of months when coupled with everything else going on in the world right now. Every objective and subjective analysis seems to suggest hyper inflated prices should (and my punt is will) go down and not up. Is there any good news for the luxury sector right now? Can’t think of much...

[maxymax]

Originally Posted by Sunny Arizona

agree, current pricing with the gray dealers and AD issues are somewhat comical

Can't agree more

[thomaspp]

agree

[DTap]

Christmas demand will start soon, I wouldn’t expect a crack in prices until January, Then maybe the lead ballon.

[eijiboy]

New 12670 blnr now hitting almost 15k here on trf and yet its not getting sold quickly


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by exador

Takuya still seems to have no problems flogging Pepsis for $18k...

He can price whatever he wants but the question is, is it going to move. And beside you can always haggle especially at this situation


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Montremoi]

Originally Posted by Wrist King

This is just names of locations and some nonsense. EM wealth is growing rapidly as middle income consumer classes join the worlds shoppers. Mature markets like the UK will be affected if the currency collapses, nothing else.

The nonsense is to deny reality. Hence, Pkincy made a sensible comment.

[maxymax]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

He can price whatever he wants but the question is, is it going to move. And beside you can always haggle especially at this situation

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Right. Plus we will never know what it sells for eventually.

[pepsiretail]

Pepsis are definitely holding, with fewer at all the resellers compared to 12 BLNR for example.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Aztro

Every YouTube I follow that is either a dealer or has strong links to them say the price is dropping and many greys have way too much inventory. This could crunch pretty seriously over the next couple of months when coupled with everything else going on in the world right now. Every objective and subjective analysis seems to suggest hyper inflated prices should (and my punt is will) go down and not up. Is there any good news for the luxury sector right now? Can’t think of much...

Yep pretty much the same words I'm hearing from all the gray dealers. Market is soft now. Inventory ain't moving and pieces sitting a long long time.

Hong Kong is also down the shitter now. The biggest market for Rolex is in big trouble and turmoil. No-one there is caring about Rolex at the moment. If mainland china troops invade which will happen if the riots get worse well watch market is gone down the drain there.

I'm seeing discounts in HK quite wide spread. zero discounts before.

[steve099]

Originally Posted by illiguy

Agree on SkyD, would put DaytonaC right there with BLRO, if not higher.

Apologies, forgot to add the DaytonaC. I purposely ignore the Daytona as they wear too small for my wrist. Really wish they made them in 42mm.

Even then only the white panda seems scarce compared to the black variant.

[KenNethcole]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Yep pretty much the same words I'm hearing from all the gray dealers. Market is soft now. Inventory ain't moving and pieces sitting a long long time.

Hong Kong is also down the shitter now. The biggest market for Rolex is in big trouble and turmoil. No-one there is caring about Rolex at the moment. If mainland china troops invade which will happen if the riots get worse well watch market is gone down the drain there.

I'm seeing discounts in HK quite wide spread. zero discounts before.

If anything can affect pricing it's HK. Such a large market for not only Rolex but most brands.

[Muxi]

And people don’t tend to buy on a downward trend so it is more likely to go lower still until the market begins to support the new price.

[omx5o]

A lot of people have bought at grey and plenty have bought the continual supply at ADs, so soon enough the demand will slow. Especially when prices start to fall. A lot of speculators will no longer want a watch that is no longer highly sought after.

[Rushne]

It could just be a summer slow down. Next few months will tell