My take on the 2024 watch market

[Steele]

Here are my thoughts on the 2024 watch market at least here in the States (whatever happens in the US the EU will suck way worse in 2024)

As a collector for the last 20 years nothing has shocked me more than the Covid Spike for luxury goods which I didn’t see coming. But the crash that followed was almost impossible to NOT see like a tidal wave 🌊 In your face! it was so blatant a blind man saw it coming.
YES I sat on the sidelines for the entire HYPE run on watches but did get the wifey the usual Lux brands #FAIL on these but she’s happy and picked up a deal on a few vehicles that I’m in the GREEN up side on!
I was fortunate enough to have the time to really hustle the Auctions and Some Random watch shops to grab a few Gems 💎 from July 2023 to Nov 2023
I feel like timing is always key and patience is the real key to entry into any market.

Looking forward into 2024 we have the positive impact of these factors below

1- US presidential Elections (parties in power always flood the economy or stabilize the economy with QE and ear market monies sitting on the sidelines for Govt projects and if needed fresh money is printed and injected into the markets and or banks for more liquidity of readily available cash for the masses through easy credit channels)
2- This coming cycle we will see the FED lowering interest rates which in turn will turn on capital flow into Small Cap corporations
3- Lower interest rates mean that the 2 key and critical factors that have MOST slowed the economy down (lowered inflation) WINK WINK…. CARS, HOUSING will once again be turned back on.

THE CAUSE AND EFFECT
1- THE Masses are the ones being most affected by inflation
2- the masses are going to more Leary of over leveraging this time on CARs and HOUSING.
3- the masses throughout 2024 will keep getting pounded by inflation this will curb the wild spending habits we saw in 2022 I expect marginalized spending on LUX items to be more in line with Pre Covid spending
4- I expect rates to drop 2 points in 2024 running up to the elections spurring a more controlled spending spree


2024 WATCH MARKET YEAR IN MOTION
1- JAN TO MARCH I’m expecting the typical seasonal slowing in Watch sales for Jan to March
2- JAN TO MARCH I’m expecting Jan to March watch sales to take an additional 5%-8% hit due to tighter credit markets and lagging inflation than a typical post holiday season
3- APRIL to JUNE we should see renewed buying and a STABLE WATCH MARKET with Tax season and a lead up to the (HYPE up news of FED lowering interest rates) Rate reduction should start here! REMEMBER THERE IS A LAG FOR THIS TO HIT THE STREETS
4- JULY TO SEPT should see a TYPICAL drop in the market as THE LAG TAKES TIME TO TRICKLE DOWN
5- SEPT TO NOV we should see CASH FLOWING INTO THE STREETS PRE-ELECTION ———- WATCH MARKET PUMPS
6- Nov 6th new cycle begins based on who is elected. Markets still should be good through the holiday season

We will see a stable but bumpy year for the Watch market

By brand
ROLEX—— will have a rough year of AD Vs Buyers exhaustion from JAN TO SEPT Along with legal issues in the UK and possibly Spain and Italy.
Rolex will have their hands full with consolidating ADs and reassessing the CPO program adjusting pricing and the structure of the CPO program that is to this point I would consider a FAILURE in need of a revamp or deletion as the Jedi would say “I feel a balancing in the force”
I feel that Rolex will roll out a new SOP for ADs adjusting things back to a more stable market view. Looking at the future measured in decades not years as we all know that Rolex is the KING of the Long Game

AP——- The biggest failure by AP in 2024 will be TO MANY NEW DAMN RELEASES!!!!!!!! Supply will stay the same but availability will be easiest from JAN TO SEPT so get them while they are hot. JUST TO MANY New RELEASES TO CHOOSE FROM WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THE HOMERUN PIECES

PATEK—— Patek has taken a UNEXPECTED WRONG TURN At the end of 2023 and let’s name them. 1- God Father 2- I’m calling them the DEAD END Rainbow BRIDGE COLLECTION
Ummmmm WTF talk about losing focus on the Customer. I feel that they will recognize this and rally with a (NEW SS Colorway for the GOAT pieces, aquanaut and Dial colorway for the Nautilus)

Vacheron—— Someone please for the love of God tell them to hire the exiting CEO for AP as a consultant! It’s like watching paint dry over there. Such a great watch brand with amazing infrastructure and Time Pieces but with so little actual marketing knowledge.
Unless changes are made they will Struggle Bus all through 2024. The Best Buy’s for value are in the Grey Market.

RM—— the life blood of this brand lives in Crypto Boys and Miami. If Bitcoin went to 10k and Miami fell into the ocean RM would go BK in a week. Jk maybe not a week but the struggle would be real.
Is it me or is RM the most traded in Brand ever? Everyone knows that the service on an RM is like mailing off your kidney inside of your leased Ferrari for 8-12 months then begging to have them back.

Here is the CURVE BALL OF 2024.

GET READY for Dubai or the UAE to scoop up a hot independent or two and rocket them to the big leagues.