Royal Oak 15400/15500 dial colors and rarity of blue dials

[karasus]

Blue dials command a premium in the current market because we assume that it is a the rarest and most exclusive. I wondered if this is true. I decided to look at the 15400ST since it was part of the blue dial premium and the production is discontinued, the fixed supply helps with current listings being more representative of probable production ratio.

When I look at the current listed 15400 of dial colors, the blue dial isn't the most rare of the 15400s. From some research and comparing the production dates least common to most common dial colors:

1. Grey (5 listed) - this was only a 1 year run before they discontinued the 15400.

2. White (13 listed) - this is different from the silver dial but has the same reference number. Porbably a QC issue There is a comparison here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XojNFSYi6ec

3. Blue (20 listed) - Boutique exclusive produced for many years.

4. Silver (40 listed) - standard 15400 color produced across the years. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XojNFSYi6ec)

5. Black (49 listed) - most common color.

link: https://www.chrono24.com/search/inde...goal_suggest=1

It should translate to something like the following percentages:
4% Grey
10% White
15% Blue
31% Silver
38% Black

If white is a QC issue then the probable production target for dial colors would be:

40% Silver/White
40% Black
15% Blue
5% Grey

Looking at the current supply and production years, I think we are really a bit crazy to pay such a premium for blue dials when it was most likely produced at quite a higher number than we are led to believe.

Apply the same analysis for 15500s. If I had to guess the numbers would probably look like:

25% Silver
30% Black
20% Blue
25% Grey

link: https://www.chrono24.com/search/inde...goal_suggest=1

15500 would have more grey since its part of the regular production while the 15400 only had a 1 year run. Looking at the amount of blue dials available I think AP increased the 15500 blue dial production because it sells well. White was always a slower seller so they probably reduced production numbers. Black is the standard.

Blue is rare but not as rare as the premium it commands suggests. The "extra" premium seems to be the manufactured exclusivity of being able to say that it is a boutique exclusive and the perceived rarity of blue.

The most rare in real numbers should be the 15400ST in grey, and the least is black for both 15500/15400.