Another Value Thread with a backdrop

[jiffi]

First of all, I need to admit that I’m one of the lucky ones with a pretty decent AD relationship. Also, I buy my watches to wear and enjoy them.

I started collecting watches, 1990 when I got my first Breitling as a graduation present from my parents, then saved some money and bought a Submariner, and then it just continued and i ended up with a significant collection that got stolen in a house burglary in 2015.

I then lost interest for watches as buying back my collection was impossible so i decided to step out of the game. However, when the new Pepsi was released bought one as my only watch. Well, do you know, I was pulled back in again but t I decided to buy one new watches focusing on only Rolexes.

They are far from being safe queens. However, last year’s market frenzy also got me on the value train thinking about values of my watch collection rather than what I really want and sometimes thinking more of buying the hot model rather than the right model for myself.

I just wanted to give you this backdrop before reasoning about future values of watches.

Some of you are talking about the days pre let’s say 2015 when you could go in to an AD and by a sportsmodel at a discount. Personally, I don’t think that this will happen any time soon, to certain models that is.

Reason being that there is a whole industry of YouTubers, gray market dealers and journalists etc talking about watches as an asset class rather than something you consume and enjoy.

So many more people are aware of the values, have a Instagram and want to flex their Rolex. They hear influencers and dealers talking about under appreciated models. This will be the next value play and so on. This watch have a really good value increase potential and so on. I there is so much higher interest for watches in general today that there still will be some models that still will be hyped and trade above retail.

Submariners
In all honesty, I don’t believe the steel sub to be trading at the premium in say 12 to 18 months. If you’re on the list, I think you will soon get a call from your AD with regards to a steel sub. However, I think the Cermit still will trade at 20% premium

GMT
BLRO will still be tough to get trained at the premium in the grain market of around 50 to 75%.

Batman/ girl
Will be a bit easier than the Pepsi, but still though and will still trade at a premium of around 20%

Daytona steel
though and Will still trade at a premium around 50 to 75%

Other models like Explorers, yacht masters and Date Just will be available of course certain rail variations will be tougher

PM models
More or less all models will be available at retail from an AD but Daytonas both with oysterflex and in full pm can be a bit thogher

All models with special dials, like the Metirotie and certain Diamond dials will potentially still be hard to obtain.


I sure that this will spur a debate but keen to hear your thoughts

Merry X-Mas