Deepsea and Sky Dweller grey prices - coming down?

[jbwm2311]

Thought I'd see what the view on this was...

I follow a watch auction site (watchcollecting.com) for general interest and to look at all the pretty pictures. I also view it as a really good barometer of true grey market prices - i.e. what people are actually prepared to pay, as opposed to what someone optimistically lists a watch for on Chrono 24 et al.

As a DSSD fan I was intrigued to see how the first (2023, brand new, unworn) ref 136660 JC to come through the site would perform. To my surprise it went unsold at 11,001 GBP. Buyers commission is on top (6% or 500gbp whichever is greater) but that's the (apparently) most desirable version of the newest DSSD, 'AAA' graded, RLX branded caseback and all at essentially retail and in your paws as soon as Escrow clears.

I also noticed today a brand new, unworn, factory stickered 2019 black-dial steel/gold Sky Dweller sold for 13,000 gbp - comfortably below MRSP.

Further investigation on the Deepsea threw up another interesting observation. 4 of the last 7 126660 DSSD on the platform, dating back to 30/10/22, sold for more than the 136660 was bid at. (of the remaining three, all 'A' graded, one was sold at 10,750, another at 10,400 and the worst performer of all a JC at 9,000).

In addition to this, I was especially interested to see that the black dial was selling for parity with, or more than, the JC which is a very different picture to circa 18 months ago when the JC would outperform the black dial every time.

So what does this mean for the new reference? Is the 136660 inherently less popular? I know many people thought the update was 'meh' and undermined it's true dive watch chops by deleting the fliplock (even if it wasn't used by most) and making the crystal stand proud by thinning the bezel for aesthetics, rather than function, thus making it easier to catch. Given the movement is the same and the date window increase mathematical rather than practical has the 126660, now discontinued, suddenly become seen as the last 'proper' DSSD?

And what of the JC? Given (most) all the articles on the DSSD focus on the JC, the vast majority for sale are JC, and the flexers love the JC has the subtler Black Dial become, unexpectedly, the rarer and therefore more interesting of the two?

And finally what of the Sky Dweller selling for a final bid of 13k - is this the start of a normalisation of pricing in the grey market for Rolexes?

Fascinated to get your takes on it!