The odds of buying a counterfeit Rolex?

[Big Kahuna 0311]

I have been waiting for 15 months to purchase my first Rolex (Explorer II black dial) from an AD.

Members keep repeating to just buy on the grey market and be done with it.
At this point I almost wouldn’t mind buying grey if I only had to pay $1-$2k over retail.

My biggest fear is buying a counterfeit Rolex and not being able to tell. There’s articles all over the internet about how good the deep fakes are and even experienced watch enthusiasts not being able to tell the difference. There’s fake watches, fake cards/papers, fake boxes, fake profiles, there’s just way too many freaking scammers all over the internet.

Even with “trusted sellers”. They could easily be sold a deep fake and resell it to someone like me that couldn’t tell the difference.

That is the #1 reason I only want to buy from an AD although I do also want the personal experience, sizing, etc.

There’s lots of threads with people having terrible experiences buying online, etc. and I want to avoid all that.

I did buy a Tudor Pelagos that got me into the hobby and keeps me happy for the time being.

Any advice?