Determining Market Value

[hennabav]

I've been thinking about this topic ever since I wrote my last thread regarding the 16710 with 3186 movement. We all know that that is a very rare watch and is currently bringing a bit of a premium in prices. Well my question is what exactly determines the premium value of a watch for people??

There are many people out there that say the watch is no different and will not be worth any different than a 3185 16710 and will need to wait 20 years to be worth anything. I understand that value is driven by supply and demand in its most basic sense but why does it really take 20 years to know whether the watch is worth anything or not. Another question is how do people predict future value as well. For example, the Explorer II orange hand and the original Milguass, those were impossible to sell and nobody wanted them. Some people would say that its all driven by demand. But there were certainly not much demand when it first came out.

Just curious to hear what others have to say about this and what their opinions are. Do people think the 16710 - 3186 is going to be a very collectible item that holds high value or just the same model with a different movement?? I have read on the Rolex Reference website that they estimated there's only about 35000 or so produced.