RIP vintage Rolex hobby?

[psv]

I've been discussing this with a few fellow watch enthusiasts, it seems to me that prices of the "desirable" vintage Rolex pieces (Daytona, Sea-Dwellers, Explorer, Submariners, GMT, Milgauss etc) have now firmly moved into a territory where they are no longer available for regular hobby collectors.

I know some people will say it is just market pricing, but ever since a bunch of taste makers and trend-setters got into vintage Rolex the last couple of years, and these people generated a demand from the bored ultra-rich class, the prices have left this atmosphere. Sadly, a great many of these buyers don't really care about the industry or history, it has just become a cool thing to have, or yet another investment vehicle, very few watches get worn and enjoyed.

Market pricing seems to be controlled by a surprisingly few number of people. Talented and skillful operators like Andrew Shear brings top-quality pieces to market, but also do so by offering watches at premium prices, often over 25% higher than what one would expect. Who can blame them, because their is a segment of buyers that doesn't really care if they pay e.g. $11,000 or $16,000 for a minty 1665, so why not maximize profit? The downside for the community is that it creates comps and drive the inflation of prices into outer space.

So rest in piece vintage Rolex collecting. I enjoyed the times when I was offered 1655's for $400; the years a minty Sub was $2-3K tops, or even quite recently when an unpolished 16660 was less than $6,000. I guess it is time to start learning about and collecting certain Omegas, Heurers and Breitlings instead. The race has certainly already begun there too but at least one has a chance of getting a nice piece for under $5,000.

Thoughts/comments?