Apple Watch And The Watch Industry

[BJHofkin]

Here's my take as an Apple fan, Apple investor, Rolex owner, and mechanical watch enthusiast:

I think Rolex, PP, most of the Richemont brands, and other truly high-end watch manufacturers are basically safe. As many have noted, you don't buy an Apple Watch for the same reasons you buy a Rolex.

HOWEVER…

I think more entry level brands, and perhaps all mechanical watch manufacturers making watches under $5,000 or so, could be in big trouble—let alone department store and "high end" quartz watches. Why? Because unlike other previously released smart watches, the Apple Watch is ATTRACTIVE. Snobbery toward circuit boards notwithstanding, I think someone who otherwise likes watches can wear an Apple Watch and feel good about it aesthetically, unlike, say, with the Samsung Gear. And that means that there's enough overlap with respect to why someone would wear an Apple Watch and why someone would wear something like a Longines or even a Tag, so that Apple is going to take a big piece of those companies' market share. LMVH and Swatch could definitely be in trouble.

As for all quartz watches other than truly cheap versions and the G Shock, I think the writing is on the wall. After all, why would someone spend $500 on a department store fashion watch when you can get an Apple Watch for a similar price that is a thousand times cooler and more functional?

Very curious to hear folks' thoughts on this question!