Some 1996 Watches Catalog Pages

[EffJayEm]

Originally Posted by schwoo

In 30-40 years I’m curious as to what today’s watches will cost? A small fortune!


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You think so? I do not. Just like we couldn't see the stainless sport watches shooting the moon (or the low supplies that caused that to happen) 25 years ago, no way to know what the world will look like 30-40 years from now, but my best guess is "small fortune" is where we are now, or where we may be in ten years, not where we'll be in 30-40 years.

This is all beyond the scope of this thread, but I don't think prices can hold, let alone hold their trajectory, as we baby boomers die off and our collections/holdings find themselves in jewelry stores, eBay, etc. The next generations just don't have the same fascination with watches. There are of course some fans, but the generation doesn't associate a nice watch with success as much as ours did. Nor are they as fascinated by the mechanical craftsmanship. You need a broad base of buyers to keep the bottom in an industry like this, let alone keep the rally. I believe the numbers bear out the problem: exponentially fewer kids in generation x and (especially) millennials are interested in watches, own them, or collect them as compared to their parents.

Obviously we lived through the quartz days, but the fact that everyone has a phone, and almost everyone has looked at their phone in the prior 4 minutes makes watches more redundant as a tool. It's similar to the quartz problem -- if everyone kept a quartz watch on quick draw in their pocket at all times and checked it every 4 minutes. My sons and their friends are anecdotal, of course, but none wears a watch, and I constantly hear "why, don't you have a phone?" if discussing mine in earshot of younger people. Except for maybe a nice night out, event or wedding, my 22-year-old and 29-year-old don't want to borrow or wear any of my large collection of Pateks when offered (I've offered some very nice daily wearers on long term loan free of charge, always declined). I lived in NYC and Chicago for my entire working life. You used to see legions of bankers, brokers and lawyers in their 20s and 30s, and they would all buy a Rolex submariner or similar with their first big bonus. Those kids are all wearing fit bits (if anything, usually nothing) and fleece vests now. I rarely see anyone under 40 with a $5K+ watch anymore. About a year ago, on a whim, I did a quick mental inventory of the roughly 30 people under 40 in my office. All of them were making $200K+. Not a single one wore a nice watch, which would have been shocking when I was that age. Only one wore any watch at all: a timex on a ribbon.

If you go to a watch convention, or trade show, etc. look around. Or look around your AD next time you're in. The customers, if any, will be 55 or older. Basel is contracting.

Watches have held their value, and in some cases gained, because my baby boomer generation loves them. Lots of people collect watches. People without a lot of money buy one at 55 when they finally pull together some scratch. It's a bucket list check mark to own something like a Rolex.

As we die off 20 or 30 years from now, and all of our collections and collective holdings (the vast majority of automatic watches in existence) get dumped at the same time, I'd expect price correction at least. I'll be gone by then, and I hope for my sons some of my hobby retains some of its value (I'm not selling anything for cash), but I'd be very surprised if we avoided a generational plunge. That goes triple for expensive things that only a true hobbyist would appreciate (a rare dial on a common watch, a rare movement on what outwardly looks similar to more recent items). The buyers will have the knowledge we have of pocket watches. Or fine china. Or highbrow branded silver sets. Or anything else upper middle class and lower upper class in my parents or grandparents generation loved, but people liked less over time. I love wristwatches, and they'll survive, but not with the ubiquity they have now.

Typed more than I meant to here!