The real reason for Rolex scarcity

[dori]

I think this might be a part of the problem. But can’t see how this happened so drastically in a matter of months.

Moreover, if what your saying is right, how is there no stock all around the WORLD? AD windows have seemed to all have the SS models vanish at once.... Are the Chinese traveling to every country out there selling Rolex and buy every SS they have? Sounds a bit strange... i think they forgot the PM models in stock........

No doubt that this article has some straight true facts, just can’t wrap up my head that this is what caused such a rapid strong outcome which we are currently experiencing.

I think AD’s and greys and holding on to a lot of stock because they found out they could inflate prices more and more. They just want more money- making you spend a certain amount at a store to get a model you desire/bundle up other watches/jewelry etc...


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[othertbone]

Not from what I see.

There are thousands of steel sports Rolex's for sale in just one south Florida jewelry district I know. One seller himself has hundreds of unworn examples. What about in your neighborhood? Same right? Crown & Caliber even has 19 Hulk's for sale!

Come on, a shortage, or scarcity means hard to find!

I was recently in NYC and went to the diamond district and saw hundreds of all your favorites in the windows, and thousands more inside. It's like that in every wealthy city in the world.

There is no shortage. Since Rolex prices have increased so much, the AD's make more money selling directly to the grey market at a premium then selling to you or me at retail.

The AD's are causing this and they are making a ton of money doing so.

Sorry, that is whats going on Boys.

[dori]

Originally Posted by othertbone

Not from what I see.

There are thousands of steel sports Rolex's for sale in just one south Florida jewelry district I know. What about in your neighborhood? Same right? Crown & Caliber even has 19 Hulk's for sale!

Come on, a shortage, or scarcity means hard to find!

I was recently in NYC and went to the diamond district and saw hundreds of all your favorites in the windows, and thousands more inside. It's like that in every wealthy city in the world.

There is no shortage. Since Rolex prices have increased so much, the AD's make more money selling directly to the grey market at a premium then selling to you or me at retail.

The AD's are causing this and they are making a ton of money doing so.

Sorry, that is whats going on Boys.

I agree with this. Just sounds so accurate and right


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[Me4u2night]

Originally Posted by othertbone

Not from what I see.

There are thousands of steel sports Rolex's for sale in just one south Florida jewelry district I know. One seller himself has hundreds of unworn examples. What about in your neighborhood? Same right? Crown & Caliber even has 19 Hulk's for sale!

Come on, a shortage, or scarcity means hard to find!

I was recently in NYC and went to the diamond district and saw hundreds of all your favorites in the windows, and thousands more inside. It's like that in every wealthy city in the world.

There is no shortage. Since Rolex prices have increased so much, the AD's make more money selling directly to the grey market at a premium then selling to you or me at retail.

The AD's are causing this and they are making a ton of money doing so.

Sorry, that is whats going on Boys.

Pretty much what he said. If the rich were buying up the Rolexes, explain why the Grey dealers have? Wouldn’t the rich just buy up those as well?

[kaiserphoenix]

Originally Posted by Me4u2night

Pretty much what he said. If the rich were buying up the Rolexes, explain why the Grey dealers have? Wouldn’t the rich just buy up those as well?

The rich are mainly rich coz they are smart with money. They will buy a daytona at retail coz they know it will increase in value. They didn’t become rich just buy surflously spending money right and left.

[ganagati]

Originally Posted by Me4u2night

Pretty much what he said. If the rich were buying up the Rolexes, explain why the Grey dealers have? Wouldn’t the rich just buy up those as well?

I don't know why it has to be an either or as opposed to nouveau riche on social media creating a demand on which the gray market dealers were primed to and have capitalized. Of course Joe Schmoe off the street gets screwed, but VIPs are getting whatever they want, as always, and the grays are scooping up the rest.

[Rado63]

Originally Posted by othertbone

Not from what I see.

There are thousands of steel sports Rolex's for sale in just one south Florida jewelry district I know. One seller himself has hundreds of unworn examples. What about in your neighborhood? Same right? Crown & Caliber even has 19 Hulk's for sale!

Come on, a shortage, or scarcity means hard to find!

I was recently in NYC and went to the diamond district and saw hundreds of all your favorites in the windows, and thousands more inside. It's like that in every wealthy city in the world.

There is no shortage. Since Rolex prices have increased so much, the AD's make more money selling directly to the grey market at a premium then selling to you or me at retail.

The AD's are causing this and they are making a ton of money doing so.

Sorry, that is whats going on Boys.

Crown and caliber does have 19 hulks for sale, but Hulk is a watch that has been available for nearly ten years. Lowest price watch on the site has no box, no papers, and maybe a ten year old watch. Price $12400 I believe the prices are reflecting the real low inventory of these pieces. Maybe not a shortage, but not overwhelming number of watches available.

[othertbone]

Originally Posted by Rado63

Crown and caliber does have 19 hulks for sale, but Hulk is a watch that has been available for nearly ten years. Lowest price watch on the site has no box, no papers, and maybe a ten year old watch. Price $12400 I believe the prices are reflecting the real low inventory of these pieces. Maybe not a shortage, but not overwhelming number of watches available.

That watch hasn't been at that price since before Basel

[liu_watch]

If we all use circumstantial evidence like this to prove a point, the world would be upside down. Not saying OP’s incorrect...just too much assumptions.

[amanbra]

For me this is 100% correct but as to predict what the future holds is a slightly different story. This Chinese market has shown in the past to move away from particular brands just as quickly.

The thing is the grey market is taking advantage of it (good on them it's their livelihood) but for me the weird thing is these Chinese millionaires can afford to by SS pieces at these mark ups but not sure some of the folk around me can. I know folk that get a piece, wrap it in plastic, fret over wearing it as their main concern appears to be resale...

[77T]

A few challenging headwinds to the Credit Suisse study is that more Americans are being counted in the wealthy category for the wrong reason.

Recall that people having $110k or more in savings are being counted. But a higher percentage of the million or so new retirees each year are opting for lump-sum payouts of their defined pension plans. That means anywhere from $100k to $500k being dumped into their savings. But those funds + Social Security are their sole source of income for old age. They aren’t running out to buy a Rolex.

The Chinese wealth rate is not affected by that phenomenon. Instead, some currency adjustments can cause improper interpretations of the data. I don’t think China is growing in Rolex sales. I believe the rate today is less than in prior years.

What I believe is driving Rolex sales is an increasing % being funded by credit/consumer debt instruments. In June 2019, U.S. consumer debt rose 4.3% to $4.1 trillion. That surpassed last year's record and there is no reduction of that growth rate in sight.


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[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by amanbra

Chinese have really moved the real estate market in Sydney, Melbourne and Vancouver until legislation was put in.

The smarter Chinese citizens experiencing prosperity wind falls have been buying property in the United States instead of luxury items. I remember trying to buy houses in 2012 in Las Vegas was a little challenging when all competitors were paying outright cash.

[Paul7]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

The smarter Chinese citizens experiencing prosperity wind falls have been buying property in the United States instead of luxury items. I remember trying to buy houses in 2012 in Las Vegas was a little challenging when all competitors were paying outright cash.

That will increase with some heading for the exits in Hong Kong.

[Gold Crown]

Originally Posted by Seibei

Just read this article and all will become clear:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...richest-people

To put it simply there are more rich people in the world than ever before, their numbers are increasing and Rolex is not increasing production.

From the article:

"The bank’s annual wealth survey found there were 100 million Chinese people among the world’s top 10% of richest people, compared with 99 million in the US."

The number of wealthy people in China is increasing at a rapid rate. If 10% of these 100 million rich Chinese want a Rolex, they need 10 million Rolex watches. Rolex makes 800.000 watches a year. Many of these are not that hot/desirable. You can do the math...

So, there is no grand conspiracy. There is no organization hoovering up Rolex watches, cornering the market and pumping up prices. There are simply more people than ever able to buy a Rolex watch and demand is far ahead of supply.

Unless Rolex ramps up production by an order of magnitude this situation is unlikely to change. There is no reason to expect the number of wealthy people will decrease.

Conclusion. If you want a Rolex watch buy it now. It is not going to become any cheaper or easier to get in the foreseeable future.

However there is one stupid Rolex for not even trying to fill the demand. That would be like going into a BMW dealership and there is only one car in the showroom to pick from. What Rolex is doing is simply bad business.

[NIHO]

So let me reiterate what you are saying:
1) all of these millionaires appeared 4 years ago, because 5 years ago everything minus the steel Daytona was on the shelf
2) All of these millionaires don't like Omega, since in their boutique you can find a million variations of the same steel watch
Sorry, but I am not buying this simple explanation. Rolex definitely made an acute change a few years ago.

[jlushing]

Originally Posted by NIHO

So let me reiterate what you are saying:

1) all of these millionaires appeared 4 years ago, because 5 years ago everything minus the steel Daytona was on the shelf

2) All of these millionaires don't like Omega, since in their boutique you can find a million variations of the same steel watch

Sorry, but I am not buying this simple explanation. Rolex definitely made an acute change a few years ago.

Leadership change in 2015.....

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rolex-n...ceo-1397578466

Makes sense right? Come into office in 2015 and brings in the exclusive “luxury” mindset that wasn’t there before to the extent it is now...



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[brandrea]

Originally Posted by NIHO

So let me reiterate what you are saying:
1) all of these millionaires appeared 4 years ago, because 5 years ago everything minus the steel Daytona was on the shelf
2) All of these millionaires don't like Omega, since in their boutique you can find a million variations of the same steel watch
Sorry, but I am not buying this simple explanation. Rolex definitely made an acute change a few years ago.

I tend to agree. It’s probably a bit of both, but more to do with strategic planning on the part of Rolex IMO.

[Seibei]

Thanks, guys for your great response to this thread and the many excellent points made.

[subdateII]

It is happening to all watches that are limited in production including Omegas (think Snoopy, Ultraman....)

Originally Posted by NIHO

So let me reiterate what you are saying:
1) all of these millionaires appeared 4 years ago, because 5 years ago everything minus the steel Daytona was on the shelf
2) All of these millionaires don't like Omega, since in their boutique you can find a million variations of the same steel watch
Sorry, but I am not buying this simple explanation. Rolex definitely made an acute change a few years ago.

[kuuttingg]

Originally Posted by NIHO

So let me reiterate what you are saying:

1) all of these millionaires appeared 4 years ago, because 5 years ago everything minus the steel Daytona was on the shelf

2) All of these millionaires don't like Omega, since in their boutique you can find a million variations of the same steel watch

Sorry, but I am not buying this simple explanation. Rolex definitely made an acute change a few years ago.

Totally agree! I remember when I bought my BLNR about 3 years ago, and the AD had Hulk watches. I tried it but I really do appreciate the color-scheme of Black/Blue. Rich people have been around way before the scarcity of SS Rolex!

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by NIHO

So let me reiterate what you are saying:
1) all of these millionaires appeared 4 years ago, because 5 years ago everything minus the steel Daytona was on the shelf
2) All of these millionaires don't like Omega, since in their boutique you can find a million variations of the same steel watch
Sorry, but I am not buying this simple explanation. Rolex definitely made an acute change a few years ago.

Exactly why I've stopped arguing in these threads. Everyone just became rich overnight and cleared the display of Rolex, so Rolex had to create new display-trays so they still look presentable.

[RyanJ]

I have no idea why this happened. All I know is Rolex was ready with brand new store displays already made and shipped to ADs.

Almost like they knew this was going to happen.. Weird..

All I know is I hope this continues.

[FTX I]

Real reason for scarcity threads usually turn out to be real debates with no real conclusion.

[Greg 59]

Considering how much emphasis the Asians usually place on precious metals I struggle to understand why they would go chasing after a stainless steel model. Plus, of any of you have ever tried to do business with a Chinese person you will know they won't pay a cent more than they have to and invariably want a discount. I don't believe the Chinese are buying up any more Rolexes than anyone else.

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[Dlong]

In China, if you are successful, you wear a Rolex. Doesn't even matter if the time is correct. It's a status piece of jewelry on your wrist. They tell time with their smart phone. A few AD's be me say the Chinese will come in and buy 5 or 6 at a time.

[Burgman]

Interesting post and Thanks for the info....

[sambb]

if one invested the retail price of a daytona 10 years ago in the S&P, you would have more than enough to buy one at gray dealers now, even at inflated values... Expanding wealth happens with investment which can fuel purchases.

[42itus]

I wonder if rich people want or even care about what's hot?

The few very rich people that I know wouldn't even bat an eye at SS. But if it's people that recently became rich then maybe they just follow hype?

[bonovox]

Oh, so this is the reason...

[patrickjb]

"The report says millennials – those born between the early 1980s and the late 90s – are the least well-off age group."


Welp, looks like I'm screwed