Current state of affairs from a prominent NY AD.

[Chester01]

Lol. I mean lol. What do you expect them to say. Ever walk into an AD, car dealership, etc, and they say man oh man you are the first guy that walked in here in days. I mean are most on here this gullible? Rolex is all about perception. Search chrono 24 and any gray dealer and there are hundreds and thousands of what ever you want out there. I guess it’s like the saying there is a sucker born every minute.

[THC]

Like all the Rolex choices out there, the entire make up of this global forum is a vast cross section of income, people, lifestyles, etc.. this is simply a hobby and life comes first .. Stay well and diligent everyone

[fsprow]

Rolex is still shut down in Switzerland. Resellers I know are looking for inventory and say the high end watch market is returning.

Re the pandemic, a Darwinian statement would be that:
- Businesses with high debt loads are toast.
- Businesses who have not properly figured out how to meet the needs of today's younger, computer savvy customers are toast.
- Folks without more than a few months savings are in trouble.
- Others will suffer a bit, find opportunities in the remains of the businesses that have failed and do well if they avoid the above pitfalls.

Not saying this is good, it's just the way the world works when met with adverse events.

[Bosscheto]

Originally Posted by fsprow

Rolex is still shut down in Switzerland.

Rolex is open, not at full capacity but open

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by Frank McKay

I spoke with an AD in NY yesterday who I have a solid relationship with for many years now. While the boutique(s) may be closed, the inquiries, calls and emails have increased. Those who were previously on the list or inquiring on the hot pieces are under the impression that due to the current economic conditions, the watches may be easier to source right now. AD stated that he doesn’t see anything changing in the near future in terms of wait times. He believes that it will only take longer to acquire sought after pieces. Rolex supply will take a while to ramp up with the closing of the facilities overseas.

One AD in one market is not indicative of anything except one AD in one Market making his guesstimate. The fact is that around the world more would be Rolex buyers before Corona have now had their finances impacted in unforeseen ways in a matter of months. For the unforeseen future, There certainly will be less demand all around for luxury goods especially Rolex watches. To think otherwise is living in a fools bubble.

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by AJMarcus

One AD in one market is not indicative of anything except one AD in one Market making his guesstimate. The fact is that around the world more would be Rolex buyers before Corona have now had their finances impacted in unforeseen ways in a matter of months. For the unforeseen future, There certainly will be less demand all around for luxury goods especially Rolex watches. To think otherwise is living in a fools bubble.

It's a funny bubble. I just passed the Chanel store here in Dallas and folks were waiting outside. Could not get a reservation at our favorite restaurant yesterday. Auto inventories at dealers in Texas are well down from a month ago. Auto plants are restarting.

In my view, this is just another dislocation which we have always overcome with imagination, tenacity and time.

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by fsprow

It's a funny bubble. I just passed the Chanel store here in Dallas and folks were waiting outside. Could not get a reservation at our favorite restaurant yesterday. Auto inventories at dealers in Texas are well down from a month ago. Auto plants are restarting.

In my view, this is just another dislocation which we have always overcome with imagination, tenacity and time.

Lots of folks are blowing off quarantine steam from being stuck indoors. But lots are still self isolating too.

Resiliency and flexibility are key for business. But capital has been effected. It’s a completely shifted paradigm. Time will tell but there are changes coming to the luxury watch business for sure. .

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by AJMarcus

Lots of folks are blowing off quarantine steam from being stuck indoors. But lots are still self isolating too.

Resiliency and flexibility are key for business. But capital has been effected. It’s a completely shifted paradigm. Time will tell but there are changes coming to the luxury watch business for sure. .

Agree but a word of caution for everybody itching to get out to their favorite restaurant. Obviously no one in the restaurant will be wearing a mask otherwise they won't be able to eat. If anybody anywhere in the restaurant sheds virus cells it will be picked up by the HVAC system and recirculated throughout the whole restaurant so no matter how far apart you sit, it will be meaningless.

As far as who survives and who doesn't it comes down to one thing Duration. If there is no resurgences in new infections over the summer then there will be more survivors as in businesses and jobs. If new infections spike due to lax social distancing than there will be less survivors. This is not to mention if we get a full blown second wave this winter. I get the chills thinking about the normal flu season killing 40-50K and then having a full blown Covid19 second wave in addition to that.

The uncertainty of the duration is what is keeping a lot of my executive friends from buying new goodies. It's not that they all have taken salary haircuts up to 20%, they are still comfortable for now. It's not knowing how long it lasts and not knowing if it gets worse down the road. Fiscal prudence is a bigger priority than new watch buying right now for them.

So maybe availability will be better for the fortunate even though Rolex lost 2 months of production. My wild guess is if you're ever going to have a shot at your grail piece it's going to be between now and the end of the year.

[Watchdaytona]

I heard there are 40 million unemployed in the USA, one of the richer countries in the world. No vaccine on the horizon, probably a massive depression. The last thing most people need is a shiny new watch. I love watches but this virus is a problem and will be with us for years to come, as will the repercussions.

Email watchfinder and see what they offer you.

[Speedbird-1]

.

[Navarino]

Originally Posted by Frank McKay

I spoke with an AD in NY yesterday who I have a solid relationship with for many years now. While the boutique(s) may be closed, the inquiries, calls and emails have increased. Those who were previously on the list or inquiring on the hot pieces are under the impression that due to the current economic conditions, the watches may be easier to source right now. AD stated that he doesn’t see anything changing in the near future in terms of wait times. He believes that it will only take longer to acquire sought after pieces. Rolex supply will take a while to ramp up with the closing of the facilities overseas.

Good chance we share the same AD. My sales guy and I chat on the phone every ~3-4 weeks. He's been saying the same exact thing throughout this whole quarantine.

Also, contrary to what some people might be thinking, they aren't just sitting on inventory while stores remain closed to the public. If they had hot pieces at the store, they have been selling those much like they would prior to the shutdown (calling up valued customers). I can understand how this has impacted their ability to sell slower-moving pieces though (watches that might otherwise be sold to walk-ins who cave into an impulse buy).

[goodolejr]

Right now, it is really difficult to get a read on what's going to happen. In 2008-2010, the recession was not accompanied by a shut-down of the Rolex factory. I believe whatever price drop we've seen, however slight compared to initial estimates (hopes), has been largely mitigated by the dry-up of new inventory due to the factory suspending operations. It will be interesting to see what happens when production ramps back up.

As some others have also mentioned, prices drops are not going to happen precipitously or dramatically like they do for the stock market or commodity futures (remember oil a couple weeks back). They'll erode at a faster pace, yes, but there isn't going to be a "Black [___]day" for Rolex purveyors.

[Xenon]

One million people died worldwide from the Hong Kong Flu pandemic of 1969 yet kids still went to Woodstock and turned out just fine.

[htrap2294]

JcPenny just filed bankruptcy...that's one big name.

[Fleetlord]

As there are some viewpoints that the virus isn’t that bad “medically” and the media coverage is skewed towards fear mongering, there are some contrarian viewpoints on how severe the economic impacts will actually be....essentially it will be LESS than the 2008 financial crisis.

https://www.morningstar.com/articles...2008-recession

We might be seeing that in the bubbles that members of this forum and other luxury lifestylers exist in.

From what I have seen, for the strong brands, Rolex, Patek, AP, RM, there has been little to no impact on valuation or sales of those references.

The “other” brands are in a pickle. Their overproduction and inferior marketing are causing them to drift further away from buyers for who Covid-19 has been a non factor economically. Value retention will play a bigger role than ever as even unaffected people will seek passion assets to “hold” onto. That’s Rolex, not IWC..

To this point, I would not expect the big valuation drops that were seen in Rolex during the 2008 crisis. The demographic directly affected is different this go around. There won’t be any SS Daytona fire sales..etc. Back in 08, they got as low as $4k UNDER retail and it happened quickly.

Unfortunately it is the people who can least afford wage disruption with 40% of people making less than $40k per year currently unemployed. Hopefully, the economic impact contrarians are correct and as the virus is mitigated, that sector of the economy rebounds quickly.

[77T]

As we consider the financial impacts affecting Rolex, and any subsequent impacts to the secondary market, I believe Rolex was positioned differently this time around than back in 2008.

This time around, they had production halted by lockdowns. They won’t increase production numbers so that missing volume is baked into the model.

This should keep secondary values up and AD discounting non-existent (and a big caveat: “should” in the sense of classical economics model).


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[Rolexflex]

Originally Posted by Frank McKay

I spoke with an AD in NY yesterday who I have a solid relationship with for many years now. While the boutique(s) may be closed, the inquiries, calls and emails have increased. Those who were previously on the list or inquiring on the hot pieces are under the impression that due to the current economic conditions, the watches may be easier to source right now. AD stated that he doesn’t see anything changing in the near future in terms of wait times. He believes that it will only take longer to acquire sought after pieces. Rolex supply will take a while to ramp up with the closing of the facilities overseas.

This is really interesting man, thanks for sharing

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[timemaestro]

The hot models are still scarce. So??

[ragsk]

Plus people have saved a lot of money over the last two months. Nothing to spend it on!

[GoingPlaces]

The market for hot models is very deep, particularly SS Rolex. Even if a chunk of those on lists fall off there are many other that will replace them. Say an AD has a list 100 deep for a Daytona, even if 50 fall off there is still a list. Zero impact on demand. The grey's pushing the prices will feel a softening but nothing significant. Couple all this with Rolex shutting down production during this crisis and the problem of supply may actually get worse.

Also, there are more millionaires in the world today than there were last year, this trend will likely continue post pandemic. Sure some will fall off due to closing or losing their small business but they will be replaced by newer entrepreneurs.

[Ravel]

Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster.
- Warren Buffett

[peterpl]

Most the people buying Rolex in the last several years are NOT millionaires. They are many young people pretty much at the beginning of their career or many on minimum wage. Its the age of instagram flex - the oldies wouldnt know much about that. Too many ppl on TRF are closed off in this little forum bubble.

Trust me these days ppl would rather starve, live off 2 min noodles and use toilet paper so rough it scratches your ass when you wipe then not to own a Rolex.

The ppl who are mostly responsible for the flipping, hype etc....have been affected the the recent economic situation. They were mostly guys that really couldnt afford a $10k SS watch but stretched themselves anyway all for the instagram likes and fame. Trying to portray a life they really dont live. Now without a job or good prospects of maintaining their jobs the market has shrunk considerably.

As I said many times the market was already soft in Nov/Dec last year. This has made it even more soft. Pieces are moving but only at very good deal prices. BLROs are not moving at $15.5k or SS Daytona's are not moving at $22k. Asking price vs actual sold price is vastly different.

[L_S_SHOE]

It’s in the best interest of anyone selling a product to make buyers believe that demand is up and that the product is scarce, so any info they’re passing along is automatically unreliable.

I think the world economic fallout from this pandemic will continue for years. Incomes are down and will stay down for a long time. There will be smaller or no bonuses. Many people will remain unemployed. It follows that spending on luxury goods will decrease. The Swiss watch market, including Rolex, will absolutely take a hit.


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[Gaijin]

One thing I'd like to add is a regional perspective.

Where I live prior to this situation the famous greys in Tokyo that we have talked about on here before, Housekihoroba, Kame Kichi, Quark, Bic Camera, Jackroad etc were packed with cash carrying Chinese tourists. The stores all had Chinese speaking staff, sometimes several just to handle the huge volume of sales. Prices were high and were maintained by that volume of sales.

Those days are over. Will they ever return? Maybe. The only airport allowing incoming international flights is Narita. Used to be Narita, Haneda, Nagoya, Osaka, Fukuoka and in Okinawa Naha and maybe Sapporo. Now only Narita has incoming international flights. About 10 % of previous volume.

When you arrive ( and I know this because my friend from the States just did ) you are tested. Long swab up the nasal cavity. The people testing you are wearing quasi hazmat suits.

If you are a foreigner you are escorted to a bus and driven to one ( yes one ) hotel. The bus windows are covered with plastic and the operator is wearing protective gear. My buddy believes Japanese self defense force personnel were doing the testing and on the bus. He could not see their uniforms but they were in JSDF boots.

Once there you are placed in a room and you are not allowed to leave for 48 hours. Your meals are announced on a speaker in your room and delivered to your door. 3 times a day. You have no say in what you are given to eat unless you have allergies or are a vegetarian/vegan.

Once that 48 hours are up and your test results returned ( my friend tested negative ) you are allowed to change hotels. Within the area.

However you are not allowed to use public transportation for an additional 12 days. So no flights or bullet train to another city. No local trains, subway or bus use is allowed.

You can rent a car to go to another city but you still must quarantine once there. Renting a car and the tolls involved from say Narita to anywhere far would be pretty darn expensive.

What was driving the grey market prices here and keeping the ADs full of pretty much Datejusts is gone.

In my city today. There were 3 ADs. Now there are two. One closed forever. Of the greys that I know of ( 5 ) three were reopened. They were completely empty.

There used to be busloads of Chinese tourists here. They even had open roof double decker buses that catered to Chinese and Korean tourists. Those are gone.

So I think at least in Japan at least for some time that is not going to change. That influx of buyers are gone. The rest of Asia I can't speak for.

Will the remaining ADs start having some desirable pieces? Unlikely. As usual they will go straight to greys. Will the greys have reality set in and will this translate to price reductions? Yes I think so.

[Jpccarguy]

An impressive spectrum of locations, predictions and speculation.

I was in my AD yesterday, just a few days after they re-opened. The display cases were almost bare, and no offers of anything on my wish list from the safe. Given that US dealers stopped receiving shipments in March, I would be surprised if anyone was able to score a rare piece from an AD.

Just hoping when the shipments start again...

[marc2828]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

One thing I'd like to add is a regional perspective.

Where I live prior to this situation the famous greys in Tokyo that we have talked about on here before, Housekihoroba, Kame Kichi, Quark, Bic Camera, Jackroad etc were packed with cash carrying Chinese tourists. The stores all had Chinese speaking staff, sometimes several just to handle the huge volume of sales. Prices were high and were maintained by that volume of sales.

Those days are over. Will they ever return? Maybe. The only airport allowing incoming international flights is Narita. Used to be Narita, Haneda, Nagoya, Osaka, Fukuoka and in Okinawa Naha and maybe Sapporo. Now only Narita has incoming international flights. About 10 % of previous volume.

When you arrive ( and I know this because my friend from the States just did ) you are tested. Long swab up the nasal cavity. The people testing you are wearing quasi hazmat suits.

If you are a foreigner you are escorted to a bus and driven to one ( yes one ) hotel. The bus windows are covered with plastic and the operator is wearing protective gear. My buddy believes Japanese self defense force personnel were doing the testing and on the bus. He could not see their uniforms but they were in JSDF boots.

Once there you are placed in a room and you are not allowed to leave for 48 hours. Your meals are announced on a speaker in your room and delivered to your door. 3 times a day. You have no say in what you are given to eat unless you have allergies or are a vegetarian/vegan.

Once that 48 hours are up and your test results returned ( my friend tested negative ) you are allowed to change hotels. Within the area.

However you are not allowed to use public transportation for an additional 12 days. So no flights or bullet train to another city. No local trains, subway or bus use is allowed.

You can rent a car to go to another city but you still must quarantine once there. Renting a car and the tolls involved from say Narita to anywhere far would be pretty darn expensive.

What was driving the grey market prices here and keeping the ADs full of pretty much Datejusts is gone.

In my city today. There were 3 ADs. Now there are two. One closed forever. Of the greys that I know of ( 5 ) three were reopened. They were completely empty.

There used to be busloads of Chinese tourists here. They even had open roof double decker buses that catered to Chinese and Korean tourists. Those are gone.

So I think at least in Japan at least for some time that is not going to change. That influx of buyers are gone. The rest of Asia I can't speak for.

Will the remaining ADs start having some desirable pieces? Unlikely. As usual they will go straight to greys. Will the greys have reality set in and will this translate to price reductions? Yes I think so.

Thanks for this information, good to hear other perspectives/locations. I live in NJ, work in NYC. My opinion is the gray dealers on 47th are in trouble. Too much inventory to carry and expensive retail overhead when there is zero foot traffic. They have been closed and when allowed to reopen, there will be no tourists. No Broadway shows, no great NYC restaurants to dine, hotels empty. I would imagine the big urban cities across the world will have the same experience.

In the financial markets, when you have a margin call, you sell what you can. That is why gold and US Treasuries sometimes get hit when they should be rallying. Luxury high end watches are no different. Gray dealers will drop prices dramatically on highly sought after pieces to raise cash to survive. Hoping, praying and waiting is not a business strategy.

Lastly, I had dinner outside my wife's friend's house on Friday night. Her husband is a successful allergist. His business is down 80% during allergy season. The other husband owns a commercial design firm. He said they are doing zero work on existing contracts and nothing in the pipeline. Both have extensive watch collections...AP, Patek, Panerai. I doubt they are buying anything in the near future.

[madmax21]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

One thing I'd like to add is a regional perspective.

Where I live prior to this situation the famous greys in Tokyo that we have talked about on here before, Housekihoroba, Kame Kichi, Quark, Bic Camera, Jackroad etc were packed with cash carrying Chinese tourists. The stores all had Chinese speaking staff, sometimes several just to handle the huge volume of sales. Prices were high and were maintained by that volume of sales.

Those days are over. Will they ever return? Maybe. The only airport allowing incoming international flights is Narita. Used to be Narita, Haneda, Nagoya, Osaka, Fukuoka and in Okinawa Naha and maybe Sapporo. Now only Narita has incoming international flights. About 10 % of previous volume.

When you arrive ( and I know this because my friend from the States just did ) you are tested. Long swab up the nasal cavity. The people testing you are wearing quasi hazmat suits.

If you are a foreigner you are escorted to a bus and driven to one ( yes one ) hotel. The bus windows are covered with plastic and the operator is wearing protective gear. My buddy believes Japanese self defense force personnel were doing the testing and on the bus. He could not see their uniforms but they were in JSDF boots.

Once there you are placed in a room and you are not allowed to leave for 48 hours. Your meals are announced on a speaker in your room and delivered to your door. 3 times a day. You have no say in what you are given to eat unless you have allergies or are a vegetarian/vegan.

Once that 48 hours are up and your test results returned ( my friend tested negative ) you are allowed to change hotels. Within the area.

However you are not allowed to use public transportation for an additional 12 days. So no flights or bullet train to another city. No local trains, subway or bus use is allowed.

You can rent a car to go to another city but you still must quarantine once there. Renting a car and the tolls involved from say Narita to anywhere far would be pretty darn expensive.

What was driving the grey market prices here and keeping the ADs full of pretty much Datejusts is gone.

In my city today. There were 3 ADs. Now there are two. One closed forever. Of the greys that I know of ( 5 ) three were reopened. They were completely empty.

There used to be busloads of Chinese tourists here. They even had open roof double decker buses that catered to Chinese and Korean tourists. Those are gone.

So I think at least in Japan at least for some time that is not going to change. That influx of buyers are gone. The rest of Asia I can't speak for.

Will the remaining ADs start having some desirable pieces? Unlikely. As usual they will go straight to greys. Will the greys have reality set in and will this translate to price reductions? Yes I think so.

X2 I completely agree and I think we would be naive to think the AD s out there will not sell watches below MSRP is ridiculous to think it could mean them losing their business completely let's face it a lot of these dealers depend heavily on Rolex even though they sell other brands generally speaking Rolex is there mean profit and if they have to sell a few hundred Below Retail they'll do so

[Bosscheto]

The big question is how Rolex and PP will reach to their ADs. There is still interest in SS, especially Rolex because the prices are lower than PP. If Rolex makes the SS entry level and available, a lot of ADs will survive, if not, I have no idea.

Here in Switzerland, we have humongous ADs in the mountains catering to Chinese and Russian tourists in the resorts. I have no idea how they will survive. Switzerland is a weird example, because the ADs cater to tourists, the watch shops are way bigger than the domestic market, and some industries are relatively fine, others - hotels are hit very hard. The best hotel in Lausanne refused to open after lockdown - Beau Rivage, I think they will open in June, but it is sad.

With PP is complicated. I think PP are not happy that the SS models have become applications pieces, and the applications pieces are available and discounted. I think prior 2009 was the opposite, Nautilusus traded at a small discount, my personal favorite Aquanaut was considered ugly and were everywhere like annual calendars now, and the Perpetual Calednar Chronographs, the split seconds etc were rare. From the complicated pieces only the World Time Enamel trades over-list. So if PP find a way to reverse the pyramid again, it will be great. But I genuinely do not know how

Both Rolex and PP have tone of cash and there is zero risk for the companies, the ADs are the issue.

[Doch]

Here in Denmark, the only watches selling are the top hyped ss Rolex sportswatches.

Everything else Isent moving, especially the more expensive stuff.

AD can not pay the bills from selling ss Rolex watches. They need revenue from all models and other brands.

We haven’t seen the top of the iceberg yet. The stock market will be hit hard, when the next quarterly accounts come in.

This will take years before it’s over.

[LndLord]

it's still early.