15450: buying grey at retail or paying 40% more for blue

[maruchan22]

I am struggling to decide. Just like the majority, I like blue more but feel ripped off if paying 40% more at a grey shop.

It is a tough choice to make.

What do you guys think?

[porschejeff]

I won't pay the premium. It doesn't matter how much money, I still like to send it prudently.

[maruchan22]

Originally Posted by porschejeff

I won't pay the premium. It doesn't matter how much money, I still like to send it prudently.

I sorta agree, it is not about the money. If both dials are at retail I would have no problem buying the blue

[Jgives]

Your double use of “grey” is throwing me off, but if you can get the gray dial at retail, I would do that over paying 40% premium for blue on gray market. Really just depends how much you want the blue and your budget. For some, getting the blue at any price is a no brainer. I’m not one of those people.

[S4one]

Don't pay premium. Once you get it, the excitement goes away in a few days. Still a good watch, but don't pay over.

[Uros]

Wouldn't do it...its a rip off...be patient and you will find a way to get blue at/close to retail...


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[Tomas Eriksson]

The grey is nice. Only you can answer if it's worth +40% for blue. I had similar dilemma a few years when back getting my 15400, I could get the silver dial for quite a lot less than other combinations.

[cmcm3]

Buy the grey dial at the boutique and use that as a stepping stone towards the blue or a 15202.

[RolexZen]

It really depends on you and outside factors:
• How much do you like the grey dial?
• How much more do you like the blue dial?
• How much is your time worth?
• Do you have a relationship with a Boutique? An AD?

I don’t care for the gray dial, so any cost difference would be irrelevant to me. And I was able to develop a relationship with AP and get on a waiting list for blue. I could have bought from a grey dealer, but I was willing to wait. But time is money, so it might be worth paying some amount to get it sooner.

Keep in mind, even if you patiently wait for an opportunity to buy at retail, retail prices can increase in the meantime. I got really lucky as a price increase went into effect just a couple weeks after collecting my watch.

[MichaelFlash]

No premium.

[AK797]

40% more for a 450 is way too much for me.

[phow]

Buy the gray dial and put your name in for a blue dial with the AD. Enjoy the gray for a year while you wait for the blue and sell it when the blue comes in. No premium paid and you build the relationship with AP.

Before everyone chimes in about selling and being blacklisted, etc... You are not going to get in trouble with AP for selling a watch 12+ months after the original delivery. That is not flipping. And AP gets that not everyone can afford to have a collection of their watches, especially the same model in different dial colors. And with second-hand prices being what they are these days, I highly doubt you will lose any money on that transaction in 12+ months.

[dauster]

Originally Posted by phow

buy the gray dial and put your name in for a blue dial with the ad. Enjoy the gray for a year while you wait for the blue and sell it when the blue comes in. No premium paid and you build the relationship with ap.

Before everyone chimes in about selling and being blacklisted, etc... You are not going to get in trouble with ap for selling a watch 12+ months after the original delivery. That is not flipping. And ap gets that not everyone can afford to have a collection of their watches, especially the same model in different dial colors. And with second-hand prices being what they are these days, i highly doubt you will lose any money on that transaction in 12+ months.

+1

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by dauster

+1

+2

This post feels like dejavu.

[maruchan22]

Originally Posted by phow

Buy the gray dial and put your name in for a blue dial with the AD. Enjoy the gray for a year while you wait for the blue and sell it when the blue comes in. No premium paid and you build the relationship with AP.

Before everyone chimes in about selling and being blacklisted, etc... You are not going to get in trouble with AP for selling a watch 12+ months after the original delivery. That is not flipping. And AP gets that not everyone can afford to have a collection of their watches, especially the same model in different dial colors. And with second-hand prices being what they are these days, I highly doubt you will lose any money on that transaction in 12+ months.

That's a great idea. But I guess I could end up making a loss selling the gray dial pre-owned. But as long as the loss is less than the premium for the blue dial this is still a very wise move, and I built relationship with the AD as you said.

[maruchan22]

Originally Posted by maruchan22

That's a great idea. But I guess I could end up making a loss selling the gray dial pre-owned. But as long as the loss is less than the premium for the blue dial this is still a very wise move, and I built relationship with the AD as you said.

And also whether they can allocate me a blue a year after purchasing the gray is an unknown factor as well

[Bracton]

Buy the grey one, order the blue dial and replace it afterwards at the AD. You will have one watch and two dials. Should cost less than 300 bucks.


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[Jgives]

Gray dials are a $5K premium right now for established sellers...you should be able to get your money back. Plus, at year end the price will increase, making your resale higher. I’m guessing retail will be around $22K US in 2021.

[Sg6067]

When I got my blue dial 15450 (April) they were selling around 23k usd on the second hand grey market. I was lucky and able to purchase directly from an AP boutique, msrp plus tax 20.5k usd. For me personally if I wouldn’t have gotten it at the boutique at that time I would have just coughed up the extra 2.5k in order to get the blue dial I wanted. However, now recent prices on c24 are trending upwards of 26k which is hard to rationalize. I guess it just depends if you can find one for sale at a price that isn’t insane.
OP if you do have a relationship with a boutique SA I would flat out ask them if buying a grey dial will hurt your chances of a blue dial allocation. Being that you would already have one they may not allocate you a second steel 15450. It also is a lot of money to spend on a temporary substitute. Best of luck to you and please let us know what you decide!

[Gravity]

Strange thought but how about buy what you love. If every time you glance down you are thinking you'd rather have the blue, it's a small price to pay. Blue and white have quite different looks. They seem to be available for closer to a 25% premium, you have to remember asking on C24 are usually not their bottom line by a long shot, especially if you go direct and don't forget to back out the tax savings when going grey. At least that's been my experience. I've never regretted a single over list purchase, but to each their own. Life is short.

[maruchan22]

Originally Posted by Bracton

Buy the grey one, order the blue dial and replace it afterwards at the AD. You will have one watch and two dials. Should cost less than 300 bucks.


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that actually works? then why anyone would buy the blue dial watch at 40% premium? there must be a difference?

[S2000_driver]

Originally Posted by maruchan22

that actually works? then why anyone would buy the blue dial watch at 40% premium? there must be a difference?

Some blue dial swaps were allowed back in the day, from what I've read. Not anymore. At least in the US.

APNA has rules about dial swaps:

- A model (dial) has to be in production for at least 5 years
- Gray, white and black can be requested
- Original dial will be retained by AP
- Since blue dials are boutique only, they are considered "limited" edition and are not available for swap requests

Going back to your original question: Did you see all the dials in person? If you did, how much do you really like the blue over the others?

I personally won't pay the premium. I know this is not possible for most people but try to see all the dials in person in different types of lighting. You will be surprised how beautiful they all are in their own way. It may change your opinion!!!

[Sg6067]

Originally Posted by maruchan22

that actually works? then why anyone would buy the blue dial watch at 40% premium? there must be a difference?

There have been several threads here on the forum discussing dial swaps. The consensus is that AP no longer allows blue dial swaps for obvious reasons. If it was possible now to have a dial swap to blue for “$300” then there would be no premium based on dial color.

[HMHM]

I personally feel that there is no reason to pay even a dime over MSRP for a watch. When one starts to pay a significant amount over retail it actually encourages grey dealers to continue its practice of getting a watch for the sole reason of flipping. It’s akin to giving drug dealers more money to purchase more drugs to distribute. If you can get a 15450 at retail I think it would be a good way to start your journey into collecting AP/watches, irrespective of the dial colour. The environment is getting out of control nowadays for watch collectors so let’s not perpetuate this practice any further.

[RolexZen]

Originally Posted by HMHM

I personally feel that there is no reason to pay even a dime over MSRP for a watch. When one starts to pay a significant amount over retail it actually encourages grey dealers to continue its practice of getting a watch for the sole reason of flipping. It’s akin to giving drug dealers more money to purchase more drugs to distribute.

Yeah, except it's not. LOL

I have never paid over retail, but time is money. If someone wants something now instead of waiting X number of months/years on a waitlist (if they are even able to get on a waitlist), they have to decide for themselves if it's worth it or not.

I guess I tend to be patient, and I can spend today's money on other things if I'm forced to wait. But that's just me.

[Timelessness]

Yes. If you desire the blue you'll always have lingering desires in your head as to how it'll be with a blue dial. I'd say go for it. I always thought the premium wasn't worth it but a year later I switched because my black dial wasn't making me happy.

A 40% premium may be expensive but on the bright side you can always flip it back if you find that the blue isn't worth it.

[phow]

Originally Posted by maruchan22

That's a great idea. But I guess I could end up making a loss selling the gray dial pre-owned. But as long as the loss is less than the premium for the blue dial this is still a very wise move, and I built relationship with the AD as you said.

Originally Posted by maruchan22

And also whether they can allocate me a blue a year after purchasing the gray is an unknown factor as well

I doubt you will lose anything (likely make money) and you get to have the watch today at MSRP and enjoy it for a year.

Here in the US I was told a year for Blue by AP Corp boutique with no purchase history. Purchase history "may"make it go faster but no guarantees.

Personally, I saw black, silver, and blue dials in person and while I thought the blue did look really nice, it wasn't worth the 10k+ premium (15500ST) to go grey and still have zero purchase history with AP.

If you are buying a 15450 today, chances are you are going to want other even more difficult to obtain models in the coming years. That's where purchase history is going to matter.

Also, if you REALLY wanted the blue dial, you would have just paid the premium instead of posting about it here. Clearly the 40% premium bothers you to some degree and that's a real concern.

I have found over the years with cars, watches, etc that there is a line where spending too much or paying a certain premium impacts the ownership experience. I can't tell you where that line is since it is different from anyone but if you cross it, you will enjoy your purchase less. There is where being super self-aware is really important.

[maruchan22]

Originally Posted by phow

I doubt you will lose anything (likely make money) and you get to have the watch today at MSRP and enjoy it for a year.

Here in the US I was told a year for Blue by AP Corp boutique with no purchase history. Purchase history "may"make it go faster but no guarantees.

Personally, I saw black, silver, and blue dials in person and while I thought the blue did look really nice, it wasn't worth the 10k+ premium (15500ST) to go grey and still have zero purchase history with AP.

If you are buying a 15450 today, chances are you are going to want other even more difficult to obtain models in the coming years. That's where purchase history is going to matter.

Also, if you REALLY wanted the blue dial, you would have just paid the premium instead of posting about it here. Clearly the 40% premium bothers you to some degree and that's a real concern.

I have found over the years with cars, watches, etc that there is a line where spending too much or paying a certain premium impacts the ownership experience. I can't tell you where that line is since it is different from anyone but if you cross it, you will enjoy your purchase less. There is where being super self-aware is really important.

Yes that makes so much sense. This is the reason I haven't paid for the blue. The experience isn't the same when buying at a grey dealer at a high premium, and knowing that I pay more to get the watch, it impacts the ownership experience as you said.

So in the US you can actually get blue dial within a year or so without any purchase history? In HK i was told no chance.

[maruchan22]

Originally Posted by HMHM

I personally feel that there is no reason to pay even a dime over MSRP for a watch. When one starts to pay a significant amount over retail it actually encourages grey dealers to continue its practice of getting a watch for the sole reason of flipping. It’s akin to giving drug dealers more money to purchase more drugs to distribute. If you can get a 15450 at retail I think it would be a good way to start your journey into collecting AP/watches, irrespective of the dial colour. The environment is getting out of control nowadays for watch collectors so let’s not perpetuate this practice any further.

yes it is out of control. Just like the real estate market. I am afraid the prices aren't going to drop.

[maruchan22]

Originally Posted by Timelessness

Yes. If you desire the blue you'll always have lingering desires in your head as to how it'll be with a blue dial. I'd say go for it. I always thought the premium wasn't worth it but a year later I switched because my black dial wasn't making me happy.

A 40% premium may be expensive but on the bright side you can always flip it back if you find that the blue isn't worth it.

I can afford the 40% premium but it is just the mental thing of mine that I don't like getting ripped off.....I guess it has nothing to do that whether a person is rich or not, a consumer always wants to buy something that is worth the money.