Rolex shortage, ways to possibly alleviate it?

[Jack T]

It remains to be seen how long the grey market will maintain these substantial markups. The fact that there are so many different models available suggests they may not be selling like hot cakes. And the majority of grey market inventory is likely provided by the AD’s themselves.
Rolex has no desire to sell a watch to every person who wants one (nor do they have the capacity to do so). They clearly have cut back production significantly, held the pricing for the most part and sooner or later things will stabilize.

[georgekart]

Originally Posted by SkyDwelling

1st, why don't Rolex increase the prices of the watches to what ever people are paying for them gray market?

...

2nd solution I was thinking about, is some thing like what car companies do. If you want to buy one of the limited hyper cars you can't sell it for a certain number of years or else you will be black listed and would never get another car from them. Why won't Rolex decide that only the person who's name is on the warranty can have any sort of service for a number of years after purchase?

1) Try explaining why a green bezel Sub should cost way more than a black bezel, white Daytona costs more than black, and even better, why TT is most of the time, cheaper than SS.

Also, not all those watches are sold at grey pricing. Let's say they make X watches. Let's say 30% are bought at retail and 70% at grey prices. So the current grey market price is a price at which 0.7*X will satisfy the demand of those who couldn't get it at retail. However, if retail was suddenly X, all watches would be selling for X. So many of those buying it at retail wouldn't. Then the supply would increase and price would fall. So current grey market prices are too high to be retail.

2) Because watches have no titles. If you sell a car there's a trail following it. With watches, there isn't. They can't limit watch service to initial buyer since the new owner is the legal owner of the product.

[SkyDwelling]

Originally Posted by georgekart

1)
Also, not all those watches are sold at grey pricing. Let's say they make X watches. Let's say 30% are bought at retail and 70% at grey prices. So the current grey market price is a price at which 0.7*X will satisfy the demand of those who couldn't get it at retail. However, if retail was suddenly X, all watches would be selling for X. So many of those buying it at retail wouldn't. Then the supply would increase and price would fall. So current grey market prices are too high to be retail.

Great explanation and makes sense. I knew I was missing some thing and it wasn't that simple but couldn't put my finger on it. Since it seems like nothing can be done one can only sit and hope that things will go back to the way it was pre shortage. In these 4 years I visited to new places, went out to celebrate successful business deals, and did some extreme activities like skydiving. Wish I had it on my wrist to make new memories and scratch it up in the process, but I guess I'll have to keep adding more memories to my existing collection.

Thanks every one for the input and thoughts. Very good discussion

[Alfa2109]

I agree that Rolex isn't going to change. Supply is what it is because the company wants it that way. They know better than we do what the demand is, and they could satisfy it (somewhat, at least) if they wanted to. Your issue seems to me to be one of resources, on the one hand, and what you love, on the other. If you love the watch in issue and have the resources to afford the gray market price, screw the principle; buy it; enjoy it; and don't look back!

[UK_]

Your post basically says why you can’t buy what you want.

If you were a regular buyer of high value goods at your AD, you would have your watch long ago.

No AD will have any interest in selling you a hard to get watch that they could sell to a good client, they would be gifting you the opportunity to earn thousands, why in the word would they do that?

They will never ‘track’ the grey market prices because it’s short term and fickle - imagine in a year when tastes change, and prices drop for a green watch. They would have to drop prices - terrible for a luxury brand. People would be put off buying, a bit like deflation in an economy.

Yes they do things to prevent the most obvious flipping - but if you don’t think they are happy that demand is many multiples of supply (and therefore have high residual and grey market), then you are reading how a business works very wrong.

If you could just walk and and buy them off the shelf, Rolex would be just another brand and the magic would be gone.

Drop some cash in an AD, or go grey. You know the route you have to go.


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[Etschell]

Originally Posted by SkyDwelling

I At different times I could have easily bought it gray market and I've always had the money for that but I chose not to on principle.

principle is the worst thing to ever make a decision based on. i feel sorry for those who continue to make this mistake in life.

if i were you i would just buy the watch and be happy you have waffled too long.

[JodyHighroller]

The SS SkyD has been out for nearly four years. Prices for the blue dial have remained fairly steady and, if not, have gone up a few thousand. If this is truly your one piece then I would just buy it gray. Some grays may be able to connect you with an AD so you can buy in store, but you will be still pay market price. The chances of getting it as a one time buyer are so minuscule.

You can’t take money with you at the end of the day. I say get it while you can and enjoy the fruits of your labor.

[TheVTCGuy]

I have to echo what a lot of people are saying, Rolex itself is not going to do a thing to change, they have no “problem.” They sell every watch they make and there is a huge demand for their product. They don’t care if the AD buys it from them, then sells it to a gray, which sells it to the end user, they (Rolex) is selling the watch. I understand there is a lot of frustration at not being able to purchase your Rolex from an AD and at MSRP. That is the BUYERS problem, not Rolex. Until the bubble breaks, until consumers get fed up with all this, NOTHING WILL CHANGE. If/when that happens, there will still be gray dealers, but they will probably be selling below MSRP, but that is all speculation. Right here and right now the only choices a buyer has is either to wait (until maybe never) and buy their watch from an AD or pay a premium and buy it from a gray. If that makes you angry, then again, that is YOUR problem, Rolex won’t be doing anything to solve any problem because they don’t have one.

[superpop]

Rolex could easily fix this problem by simply allowing the AD network to charge market rates for the watches. This would eliminate the flippers and bring some added equilibrium to the market. A lot of other luxury brands do this, like Porsche, where you do pay an ADM to buy a hot car. Rolex is completely missing the boat on this and it will bite them at some point as more people get turned off by the experience.

[LFDAmelio]

Originally Posted by superpop

Rolex could easily fix this problem by simply allowing the AD network to charge market rates for the watches. This would eliminate the flippers and bring some added equilibrium to the market. A lot of other luxury brands do this, like Porsche, where you do pay an ADM to buy a hot car. Rolex is completely missing the boat on this and it will bite them at some point as more people get turned off by the experience.

As a Porsche guy, i can tell you that this is no fix. It doesn't make more product or affect the underlying cause - imbalance of supply and demand. Allowing ADs to charge mark up just shifts the hate to the dealer rather than the manufacturer or grey. Go on Rennlist or any other Porsche forum. Just substitute "SS Daytona" or "Pepsi GMT" for "GT3" or "GT3RS" and you'll be reading the exact same thread.

[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by superpop

Rolex could easily fix this problem by simply allowing the AD network to charge market rates for the watches. This would eliminate the flippers and bring some added equilibrium to the market. A lot of other luxury brands do this, like Porsche, where you do pay an ADM to buy a hot car. Rolex is completely missing the boat on this and it will bite them at some point as more people get turned off by the experience.

This "fix" would pretty much be the only thing Rolex could do that would push me away from the brand. At least now regular people have a chance of buying a Sub for $9k. Maybe you have to wait, maybe you have to use some charm, maybe you have to buy some other stuff. But you still have a chance of buying a $9k watch for $9k. If the ADs were allowed to sell that Sub for $20k in NYC and $15k in Atlanta, it would be a total mess. You instantly guarantee everyone is getting screwed. And you'd still have a gray game because somebody out there would be finding a Sub for $13k at a low traffic AD and turning around and selling it to somebody else in a market where their AD sells for $19k, etc.

[ganiccus]

I hope you get great enjoyment from your principles OP, because spending 4 years without enjoying the watch you crave so much just because you don't want to pay the piper is kinda getting sad at this point. You are like that toddler who wants to hold his breath indefinitely in front of his parents until he gets it his way, we all know how it usually ends out though.

As for the secondary market dealers, you think they enjoy spending so much equity just for one piece they will move at a 10-20% margin? they make their bread and butter on volume of stock moved and they can achieve that a lot easier if they spend less on each individual watch to begin with. The real problem is the middle men, the flippers, the private sellers taking a shot at selling online from the comfort of their home, but there is not much ADs can do to spot them accurately. it can be the young millenial fresh out of college just as much as the 40 something businessman in a bespoke suit.

[siempreko]

The shortage will be relieved, as the world economy slows (except for the growing economy in China, thus continuing increasing demand for China.)

[MalcolmSquare]

I think the "hard-to-get" issues and social media posts are playing right into Rolex's brand image as being exclusive and for the wealthy. In broad strokes, having a Rolex used to mean that you had a few thousand dollars to drop on a watch. Now it means that you have many thousands of dollars to drop on a whole case of watches and jewelry. Of course, this is not necessarily how it should be and not everyone's purchase story follows this narrative, but I fear this is where we are headed.

[VincentM]

« Still I don't understand why they haven't thought of certain measures to end this problem, and wanted to discuss it with you in case I was missing something. I don't believe the suggestion that Rolex wants this or loves it. »

I think you are wrong. Rolex is creating this situation deliberately. Rolex wants to sell some kind of exclusivity. And they sell more watches globally.

If Rolex really wanted to stop the grey market, it would be so simple. They would only have to accept orders from their customers! And base their production according to these orders.

It seems pretty obvious that Rolex wants to restrain access to certain models. By doing this, they encourage the grey market. There is nothing we can do to change their marketing strategy I guess.

But as customers we have the power to kill grey. We just have to follow your way of doing OP, that is to refuse buying grey!


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[Rolexatlast]

Maybe we need to be innovative.

Perhaps instead of Rolex Retail Prices tracking the grey market, which would be chaotic, maybe Rolex should simply auction off its inventory each month.

You submit your bid to the Rolex website. If Rolex make 1000 units of your desired model, then the 1000 customers with the highest bids are directed to their nearest AD

[SkyDwelling]

Originally Posted by VincentM

But as customers we have the power to kill grey. We just have to follow your way of doing OP, that is to refuse buying grey!

Good luck with that. As you can see TRF is telling me to shove my principles where the sun doesn't shine

I still wouldn't do it though. If I finance the gray market then what grounds do I have to ever criticize any gray market practices no matter how predatory or disruptive they are? End of the day these are people who acquire goods on mass scale to flip them and thus deny real collectors the chance to acquire them through the official channels. People have the right to buy gray if they decide to, but no one can ever correctly claim it's the right thing to do or that I am wrong when I refuse to. I can make analogies following that same logic that would horrify you, but let's keep it light hearted and fun

Thanks all for the input.

[CashGap]

Originally Posted by SkyDwelling

If I finance the gray market then what grounds do I have to ever criticize any gray market practices no matter how predatory or disruptive they are?

Not everything you don't like or don't understand is bad.

Elaborating does not change that :)

To stay principled, go to an AD and drop maybe $15k on gold/diamond jewelry with 75% gross profit. Your blue skydweller will appear at MSRP that same day, I assure you.

What a world. Buying a Rolex in the “underworld” (grey market) is straightforward, easy, and professional. Buying “legitimately” (AD) is full of intrigue, games, lies (“You’re number XVII on our list”), and deception. Whatever your preference, isn’t that WEIRD?

[Rado63]

Very simple to explain. Rolex is in demand because they flipped the secondary market from a dumping ground for lower than MSRP pricing to a place where prices are above MSRP. Today, you must buy everything the AD offers you otherwise you won't get the coveted steel sports pieces. The AD sells all the inventory and the secondary market is left to set the going price. Since I can't walk in and get blue skydweller I am forced to pay the premium and psychologically you think the watch is worth more than other brands. Meanwhile, The other brands are still trying the old trick of limited editions to create traffic. Rolex just says, no purchase history, then no watch.

[DLRIDES]

Tldr

[fsprow]

The reality is the only people that are upset with the current situation are the “MSRP or bust” buyers.

[Madman37]

Forget the AD experience, the only thing good about an AD is you save a crap load of cash if you get it from them, all that grovelling you have to do Pretending to enjoy chats with them about watches like their your friend.

Imagine if you had gone grey 6 months after it came out you would have got it for even cheaper than now and been enjoying it. The grey dealer would have got out a carpeted tray to put the watch on and given you a glass of champagne while handing over the cash, the AD experience.

Go get it now on grey, it sounds like it will make you happy. If the prices drop to MSRP and you lose cash then hooray you can buy another watch and the AD will have to grovel at your feet so you win both ways.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by Madman37

Forget the AD experience, the only thing good about an AD is you save a crap load of cash if you get it from them, all that grovelling you have to do Pretending to enjoy chats with them about watches like their your friend.

Imagine if you had gone grey 6 months after it came out you would have got it for even cheaper than now and been enjoying it. The grey dealer would have got out a carpeted tray to put the watch on and given you a glass of champagne while handing over the cash, the AD experience.

Go get it now on grey, it sounds like it will make you happy. If the prices drop to MSRP and you lose cash then hooray you can buy another watch and the AD will have to grovel at your feet so you win both ways.

This point of view is making me laugh. Especially the pretending to enjoy chats with the AD. I happen to really like my SA and a few of the other folks at the AD but I imagine some people don't feel that way. Made me laugh anyway, Thanks!!!

[Madman37]

Originally Posted by garyk

This point of view is making me laugh. Especially the pretending to enjoy chats with the AD. I happen to really like my SA and a few of the other folks at the AD but I imagine some people don't feel that way. Made me laugh anyway, Thanks!!!

Lol no problem I hope he does buy it grey it will make him happy.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by SkyDwelling

I began attempting to get a blue dial Sky Dweller in 2017 when the watch was announced and it has been nothing but unpleasantness. At different times I could have easily bought it gray market and I've always had the money for that but I chose not to on principle. Also because I want the experience I always had whenever I bought a Rolex. I used to be able to walk into an AD, find everything in stock (except the SS Daytona), buy a spanking new watch with my own name on the warranty then go home and enjoy removing the stickers and sizing it to my wrist. That's a part of the fun of buying a Rolex and I will not replace it with a gray market watch purchase.

For 4 years I contacted almost a hundred AD's. No one has my watch, no one would even put my name on a waiting list for one, and on occasion it would be implied that if I buy available watches it might be a good start for a "relationship" that might get me on a list. I do want the watch but nowhere am I desperate enough to spend tens of thousands on watches that I do not want in order to get it. This means that 4 years on I'm still unable to get the watch nor even have my name on a list. No problem, my life will not come to a halt because of a watch or any other piece of goods.

Still I don't understand why they haven't thought of certain measures to end this problem, and wanted to discuss it with you in case I was missing something. I don't believe the suggestion that Rolex wants this or loves it. If it did it wouldn't have instructed AD's to take extreme action to disrupt gray market such as cutting the tags, removing the stickers at the store, and keeping the warranty card for a year. Also if you look at Rolex social media you will see chaos. Every time Rolex makes a post it gets hundreds of negative replies from people complaining they can't get watches and telling stories of blackmail by AD's and such. No one wants that and Rolex can't be happy about this ongoing negativity on its social media.

I looked at secondary market sites and saw a great abundance of watches with extremely high mark ups. My desired Sky Dweller goes for 25 to 30 thousand that's more than double the price. It is the same on the bay. Hundreds of watches for double the price most brand new with stickers and warranties with recent dates. Thousands of people therefore get those watches without any intent to keep them and instead unload them for double the money immediately. Two ideas I think might fix this.

1st, why don't Rolex increase the prices of the watches to what ever people are paying for them gray market? If every watch made is happily bought by some one at a high mark up or double the price then why don't Rolex sell them for these exact prices? The speculators would then still buy the watches and sell them at triple the price? No problem Rolex raises the price again as long as people are willing to buy every last watch for that money from gray market. This should continue until the watches reach a price that no one wants to pay a dollar over and that would kill the grey market and Rolex would still sell every last watch made.

That sounds unfair to normal collectors who then have to pay three times the original price, but they could never have got the watches at the original price any way. If in order to get a desired watch at the original price one first must buy other undesirable watches that they can't sell for what they paid for, are they really getting the desired watches at that original price when they have lost a lot of money on other watches first?

2nd solution I was thinking about, is some thing like what car companies do. If you want to buy one of the limited hyper cars you can't sell it for a certain number of years or else you will be black listed and would never get another car from them. Why won't Rolex decide that only the person who's name is on the warranty can have any sort of service for a number of years after purchase? If some one else takes the watch to any AD for repair in that period the watch is rejected and it's serial gets black listed and the buyer would have to find another way to service it or get original parts for it. It might not end it completely but sure a person would hesitate to buy a gray market watch if he knows that for 7 years if the watch has a problem or gets damaged it will be impossible to repair it with original spare parts.

Very interested to hear your thoughts and fill in the gaps for me. I am sure if it was that simple Rolex would have done it a long time ago so I must be missing some thing.

Your best option is to switch brands I think

[Sprta]

So if you want Rolex to raise their prices to the grey market, just buy it now from the grey, price will be the same. Pretend Rolex listened to you.

[upsidedownbelt]

I agree for the most part that Rolex doesn’t need to do anything but...

I went to the Rolex boutique in San Diego the other day and the cases were EMPTY. If I was just a new Rolex customer who didn’t have the guts or wasn’t savvy enough to buy gray then what do I do? I am not going to do the whole “establish a relationship” nonsense. I would probably go across the hall to Omega.

The “price for Rolex entry” at an AD is almost nonexistent unless you are looking for an undesirable watch. This can’t be a good long term strategy for getting new customers.

[spikep]

The SkyDweller is amazing. I agree just pay market price if that’s what you really want and start enjoying it. I had to do that for a Pepsi, it stung a bit paying 2x MSRP, but now I enjoy the watch instead of getting frustrated waiting.

[Cabaiguan]

“Still I don't understand why they haven't thought of certain measures to end this problem”

OP...what problem? And a problem for WHOM? Rolex has no problem. They have an enviable brand and sell every watch they make.

You can argue that WE, the consumer, have a problem in not being able to purchase a Rolex. Well, there’s a solution to that. Buy something else. This happens in many other cases...cars, clothing, homes, etc. It just is.

[garethevans]

Yeah, I feel your frustrations.

I am in the same boat. 2 years on a waitlist for a Pepsi. I even went to the Rolex launch event in London!

I had a call in the first week of January this year to say they had a GMT for me, I was so excited!! Finally after 2 long years I could buy my dream watch. But then I found out it was the two tone model which I’d never expressed an interest in. I passed.

I asked when I’d get to buy the SS Pepsi and was told pretty bluntly, likely never, as I have no regular buying history with the company.

I had actually bought a ceramic Sub from the dealer when they first came out but I subsequently sold it and have no proof of purchase. I even went through old bank statements looking for proof but I found nothing. So really I have no provable history and no chance to buy it at retail.

I’ve made my peace with it. I typically buy second hand older style Rolex models and they’ve massively appreciated in value. The one watch I now really want is the new Pepsi, and as much as I hate the idea of paying over retail for it, I’ve decided that I really want it and so I’ll pay the premium.

It will be a watch I’ll enjoy so much it will be worth it. I’ll likely never sell it, same as my old Sub which I still enjoy wearing to this day. These are lifelong pieces to hand down to your kids, they’re special, and they’re worth it (at least to me they are) even at the premium.

Yes, it’s not the best situation, I would much rather buy it at retail price, but it is what it is. I’m not buying a load of other models I have no interest in to be in with a chance of buying it one day, surely you’ll end up paying the same for the watch anyway and wasting time on a waitlist. I’m just going to cough up.

If it’s your one dream watch, it’s worth the price in my eyes.

The only other thing you might want to consider is competitions. I’ve entered a few competitions on the off chance I might win one. Now that would be a nice feeling to pick one up for the price of a ticket (about $50).


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