Insanity! Where does it stop?

[telesquire]

Doesn't seem that many buyers for them at these prices right now here in the UK. If they were such hot property the grey dealers wouldn't have so many in stock. Even your smaller grey seems to have five or six Daytona out of a stock of 40 Rolex. I saw one larger London based bricks n mortar grey dealer before with 57 of them, they only have the one store too.
Rolex stock in general at these dealers seems to sit about for quite some time. I saw one well known grey before with a meteroite dial PM GMT that shows up as being first advertised in May on his Instagram page.....Whoopee! Hardly flying off the shelves!

[grimps]

Originally Posted by telesquire

Doesn't seem that many buyers for them at these prices right now here in the UK. If they were such hot property the grey dealers wouldn't have so many in stock. Even your smaller grey seems to have five or six Daytona out of a stock of 40 Rolex. I saw one larger London based bricks n mortar grey dealer before with 57 of them, they only have the one store too.
Rolex stock in general at these dealers seems to sit about for quite some time. I saw one well known grey before with a meteroite dial PM GMT that shows up as being first advertised in May on his Instagram page.....Whoopee! Hardly flying off the shelves!

Most grey dealers would offer you 23000 pounds for a white dial Daytona tomorrow , they wouldn't have 50 in their store if they didn't think they'd be able to sell them or they'd continue to go up in value

[Goin2drt]

Originally Posted by BillA

Price of a SS Daytona ranges between $38K to $42K, grey dealers, for a watch with an msrp of $13,150.

Where does it end? Is this insanity? Do people have this kind of money to burn? I just don’t get it.

End rant.

People want to be cool. It is the most hyped (well maybe second to the PP) watch and it is hard to get so people with money want it even more so this can be another "bobble" on their person that shows people how awesome they are.

For those people $40K is a rounding error. They want what they want and they will pay whatever to have it NOW.

The only way it stops.
1. Rolex starts cranking these out like candy and Econ 101 takes over and the SnD curve starts to change and as soon as they flood the supply the demand and prices goes back down. (not going to happen).
2. Anything other than that the prices will continue to rise as long as the hype continues and people still have money.

Shutting down grays, selling online blah blah blah doesn't change the pricing whatsoever unless either they make more or people stop hyping them and the demand decreases.

[alllexandru]

funny how 99% of people dont give a ..... on watches Daytona included, it is all in our twisted wis life
move on, it is what it is, let them pay thats fine.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by alllexandru

funny how 99% of people dont give a ..... on watches Daytona included, it is all in our twisted wis life
move on, it is what it is, let them pay thats fine.

And to add, art lovers dont care if 99% of the populating doesn't get paying what they did for a painting or musicians paying $100k for a Steinway. Its always the niche collectors within the culture that value what it is that sets the tone of that particular industry. Now some of the general public are looking for tangible items to park their money into and that can be watches, art, real estate, or vintage Fender guitars.

[alllexandru]

Originally Posted by alllexandru

funny how 99% of people dont give a ..... on watches Daytona included, it is all in our twisted wis life
move on, it is what it is, let them pay thats fine.

Hate to quote myself

[SubMillennial]

these aren't end users buying these, just resellers from other resellers

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by SubMillennial

these aren't end users buying these, just resellers from other resellers

That is exactly what fueled the tulip mania. It was resellers buying tulip options, not even the actual bulbs because they hadn't even been grown yet. The banks were lending on the tulip options, so resellers would buy the tulip options and levered themselves up 10:1. Then they would turn around and sell the option to another flipper. The original party then paid back their loan and kept the profit. The next party had often times already gone to the same bank and levered up 10:1 themselves for that same option, so they had to find a 3rd party now to sell to, repay the loan, and walk away with profit. Sometimes the same option traded hands 10 times in a single day, with all of the buyers using 10:1 leverage and scalping profits each time. It wasn't until the first bank saw this and said no, we are taking away the leverage, that the rest of the banks also took away the leverage and the music stopped playing.

On top of that everyone couldn't conduct their normal, routine businesses because the Black Plague was sweeping through Europe at the time and Holland was getting hit. The Black Plague virus pandemic created a situation of easy money with the banks and bored/desperate merchants, all wanting to trade and make easy profits with these tulip options.

To quote the venerable Yogi Berra, it's Deja Vu all over again!

[teck21]

Originally Posted by Mendota

That is exactly what fueled the tulip mania. It was resellers buying tulip options, not even the actual bulbs because they hadn't even been grown yet. The banks were lending on the tulip options, so resellers would buy the tulip options and levered themselves up 10:1. Then they would turn around and sell the option to another flipper. The original party then paid back their loan and kept the profit. The next party had often times already gone to the same bank and levered up 10:1 themselves for that same option, so they had to find a 3rd party now to sell to, repay the loan, and walk away with profit. Sometimes the same option traded hands 10 times in a single day, with all of the buyers using 10:1 leverage and scalping profits each time. It wasn't until the first bank saw this and said no, we are taking away the leverage, that the rest of the banks also took away the leverage and the music stopped playing.

On top of that everyone couldn't conduct their normal, routine businesses because the Black Plague was sweeping through Europe at the time and Holland was getting hit. The Black Plague virus pandemic created a situation of easy money with the banks and bored/desperate merchants, all wanting to trade and make easy profits with these tulip options.

To quote the venerable Yogi Berra, it's Deja Vu all over again!

There is no end to the supply of tulips.


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[Mendota]

Originally Posted by teck21

There is no end to the supply of tulips.


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Not to veer completely off topic, and this is a completely separate conversation, but there literally was a finite supply of bulbs. In fact, there weren't even any at all. It was all options trading (futures) with the intention for the last man standing to ultimately take possession of the actual bulb, but nobody wanted the actual bulb. They just wanted to flip the option and take their sliver. If you haven't case studied what happened or grown tulips yourself, they take ~12 years to cultivate and are incredibly fragile and finicky, plus they have to come from the mother bulb. They weren't native to Holland, either, so they were imported into the country not long before the excess. That's a big part of what happened because they were new and rare. So yes, there absolutely was a limited supply which, combined with freely flowing capital with leverage, combined with scalping and FOMO, plus a pandemic, created the mother of all bubbles.

I'm not saying this is the same. I'm just saying it's fascinating and ironic how many similarities there are, including a raging pandemic.

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[teck21]

Originally Posted by Mendota

Not to veer completely off topic, and this is a completely separate conversation, but there literally was a finite supply of bulbs. In fact, there weren't even any at all. It was all options trading (futures) with the intention for the last man standing to ultimately take possession of the actual bulb, but nobody wanted the actual bulb. They just wanted to flip the option and take their sliver. If you haven't case studied what happened or grown tulips yourself, they take ~12 years to cultivate and are incredibly fragile and finicky, plus they have to come from the mother bulb. They weren't native to Holland, either, so they were imported into the country not long before the excess. That's a big part of what happened because they were new and rare. So yes, there absolutely was a limited supply which, combined with freely flowing capital with leverage, combined with scalping and FOMO, plus a pandemic, created the mother of all bubbles.

I'm not saying this is the same. I'm just saying it's fascinating and ironic how many similarities there are, including a raging pandemic.

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The other poster’s supposition is that the entire market for Rolex watches was based on the constant reselling of the watch, like tulips.

There is no end user for the watch. Or the tulip. It exists simply to be sold to the greater fool.

You seemed to agree.


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[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by Mendota

That is exactly what fueled the tulip mania. It was resellers buying tulip options, not even the actual bulbs because they hadn't even been grown yet. The banks were lending on the tulip options, so resellers would buy the tulip options and levered themselves up 10:1. Then they would turn around and sell the option to another flipper. The original party then paid back their loan and kept the profit. The next party had often times already gone to the same bank and levered up 10:1 themselves for that same option, so they had to find a 3rd party now to sell to, repay the loan, and walk away with profit. Sometimes the same option traded hands 10 times in a single day, with all of the buyers using 10:1 leverage and scalping profits each time. It wasn't until the first bank saw this and said no, we are taking away the leverage, that the rest of the banks also took away the leverage and the music stopped playing.

On top of that everyone couldn't conduct their normal, routine businesses because the Black Plague was sweeping through Europe at the time and Holland was getting hit. The Black Plague virus pandemic created a situation of easy money with the banks and bored/desperate merchants, all wanting to trade and make easy profits with these tulip options.

To quote the venerable Yogi Berra, it's Deja Vu all over again!

The difference being that nobody seems to be using leverage in this market. Unlike your example, and 2008-2009 where people and entities were over leveraged and the music did stop for them and cause havoc, a lot of people seem to have made money in crypto, or monetized their social media, or by following social media stock trends like Gamestop and others. It almost makes me feel "slow dumb and stupid" as my dad would say, for having built a nice portfolio of high dividend yielding stocks and real estate investments while dollar-cost-averaging the proceeds from my middle-management corporate job.

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by Oystersteel92

The difference being that nobody seems to be using leverage in this market. Unlike your example, and 2008-2009 where people and entities were over leveraged and the music did stop for them and cause havoc, a lot of people seem to have made money in crypto, or monetized their social media, or by following social media stock trends like Gamestop and others. It almost makes me feel "slow dumb and stupid" as my dad would say, for having built a nice portfolio of high dividend yielding stocks and real estate investments while dollar-cost-averaging the proceeds from my middle-management corporate job.

Actually, margin debt is at an all time record high. Almost a trillion dollars. Far more than 2008 or any other point.

No, you are doing it right. Those of us who are diversified in real estate, stocks, who have built our own businesses or have devoted careers to growing others are going to be fine. You are doing it right. Don't listen to the bored, millennial daytraders who think they are experts simply because they are picking things that are going up. A rising tide lifts all boats. Everyone's an expert when nothing goes down.

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[bob sims]

Originally Posted by Mendota

That is exactly what fueled the tulip mania. It was resellers buying tulip options, not even the actual bulbs because they hadn't even been grown yet. The banks were lending on the tulip options, so resellers would buy the tulip options and levered themselves up 10:1. Then they would turn around and sell the option to another flipper. The original party then paid back their loan and kept the profit. The next party had often times already gone to the same bank and levered up 10:1 themselves for that same option, so they had to find a 3rd party now to sell to, repay the loan, and walk away with profit. Sometimes the same option traded hands 10 times in a single day, with all of the buyers using 10:1 leverage and scalping profits each time. It wasn't until the first bank saw this and said no, we are taking away the leverage, that the rest of the banks also took away the leverage and the music stopped playing.

On top of that everyone couldn't conduct their normal, routine businesses because the Black Plague was sweeping through Europe at the time and Holland was getting hit. The Black Plague virus pandemic created a situation of easy money with the banks and bored/desperate merchants, all wanting to trade and make easy profits with these tulip options.

To quote the venerable Yogi Berra, it's Deja Vu all over again!

People pay over a million dollars for a piece of cardboard 52 Mantle card that sold for half a penny I believe.
No second hand!

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by bob sims

People pay over a million dollars for a piece of cardboard 52 Mantle card that sold for half a penny I believe.
No second hand!

I have to correct myself. Earlier this year one of those half cent pieces of cardboard sold for over FIVE MILLION dollars! I wonder how many people told the seller to unload it over the years for 10 or 20 grand before the "bubble" burst!
https://www.sportscollectorsdaily.co...ard-ever-sold/

[teck21]

Originally Posted by SubMillennial

these aren't end users buying these, just resellers from other resellers

So the resellers from other resellers sell them to yet other resellers?

After that?

What a stupid argument.


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[RealMadrid1988]

Originally Posted by SubMillennial

these aren't end users buying these, just resellers from other resellers

This is just patently false. Just last week someone came on here and their first post was an incoming white Daytona purchased (for them as a gift) on the gray market at $40k.

There are undoubtedly countless others who are also buying and too afraid to admit it because of all of the posts (like those in this thread) calling them stupid.

[Laszlo]

Peter Schiff this AM.

Peter said, “Stock up now!”

Buy the things that you think you may need a year from now, two years from now. Buy it now. Especially the stuff that is nonperishable. Because in the future, stuff is going to be in even shorter supply than it is now, but prices are going to be much higher. So, why wait for the prices to go up? Just buy the stuff that you need now while it’s available and a lot less expensive than it’s going to be pretty soon.”

So yeah, please stock up on Rolexes.

[JohnGingerwood]

I just dont understand why people that can spend that much on a steel watch do not get gold.

[boogiebot]

Originally Posted by JohnGingerwood

I just dont understand why people that can spend that much on a steel watch do not get gold.

This is a great question.


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[JSolution]

Originally Posted by JohnGingerwood

I just dont understand why people that can spend that much on a steel watch do not get gold.

Me too no contest for me it’s only a few extra for a white gold Daytona

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by JohnGingerwood

I just dont understand why people that can spend that much on a steel watch do not get gold.

Because they want the “in” sports look. Heard of $1500 plus sneakers? Pretty common. They could have bought John Lobb shoes, but don’t want them.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by JohnGingerwood

I just don't understand why people that can spend that much on a steel watch do not get gold.

Totally. I will never understand this.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by JohnGingerwood

I just dont understand why people that can spend that much on a steel watch do not get gold.

The material from which a watch is made is irrelevant. We're not dealing in gold bars or bulk stainless steel. They are very different watches in SS or gold, and each have their own and different appeal based on design, feel and weight, among other details.

Also, I'll point out that an all-gold Daytona is about $20K more on the secondary market, give or take a grand or two.

[1665fan]

Cryptona to the moon!!!

[rolexpatek363]

Groundhog day on a watch forum.

[Pw92676]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Groundhog day on a watch forum.

Is this still a watch forum?

[Robf52]

Pay to play. There's obviously a significant portion of the population with the interest and funds to support these prices. No one forces people to spend their money. One person's crazy price is another one's bargain. Where it ends? Probably will take an deep economic recession.

[RealMadrid1988]

Hope it keeps going up!

[Jonathanhumes]

I popped into my AD this morning and asked if I'm likely to get my GMT for my birthday in February. I may be a little too positive but I got the impression it's a possibility. He also mentioned Rolex now have a team to identify people flipping watches. Sounded true, but let's see. Fingers and toes crossed.