Is “the puke” coming to the watch market?

[APPRF]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Visited an AD over the weekend ,picked up a serviced watch.
They say its crazier than ever ,also receiving interesting offers of a lewd nature ..foreign visitors trying their luck with "incentives"

Demand at ADs more
Demand at Grey less .

Then ,when the realization hits ,that getting it from the AD,isn't going to be easier ,they run to the greys again and pricing goes up again .

Demand >> supply ,with stabilization of market pricing,slightly lower than peak .

You can count on human natures instant gratification urges.

Most people who go to ADs don't buy Grey usually. If they get it from AD that's fine, if not they are certainly not paying the ridicules prices Greys are asking. Some will pay 10-20% over retail, but not these current prices. There will always be the few that have too much money than sense, but they will not cause the return of rising prices in this current market, and economy circumstances. Also I hope these current market posts continue as it helps educate the newcomers, and people who may be fooled into paying 2x 3x etc by who are continuing the hype..

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by David001

Of course it is, I've been right so far but we're all guessing and my guesses are based on what's actually unfolding. I can't imagine what type of unseen global event would turn things on their heads and send the markets spiralling up again.

But this has been done to death, how many more of these threads do we need? I wish I hadn't risen to the provocation. They all descend into a vehicle for angry people to dump their angst about the price fall.

Sadly, many people paid insane prices during a crazy COVID bubble. They have already lost money. Often they claim they don't care about the money but the sensitivity many display when falling prices are discussed suggests otherwise.

I have no doubt we will return to MSRP. Just a matter of time. Normal business will be resumed. There may be dead cat bounces along the way but we are heading back to MSRP, even discounts. ADs will resist but the market will prevail. Rolex pumping out a million watches a year is like gravity, always pulling prices down to MSRP. When the flippers and the spivs disappear you will be left with those people who just want to buy a watch: collectors, people buying for birthdays, for special anniversaries etc.

Prices crashing and availability are the issues at the moment, so it not surprising they are discussed. Just skip those threads or start your own thread about what you do want to discuss, if they cause anxiety.

For youngsters who only became interested in Rolex watches during the last few years it may seem incredible to them that normal is buying a watch at MSRP or even with a discount. Paying x2 or x3 the retail price is abnormal and it has been amazing to see how people behave during a bubble.

The end of COVID, prices returning to normal, the end of shortages, the world reopening, travel getting back to normal and governments and citizens living sensibly and within their means, paying their bills, is great news. The end of the amatuer flipper, whatever they are flipping, is great news. We should be optimistic about the future. Being able to buy the products we want again is good news. The last few COVID years were never going to continue indefinitely. May they never return.

Those who got caught up in the bubble. Cut you losses now, if you still can, or just enjoy your watches and learn from the experience.

[LA_LEC]

Originally Posted by johnwigan

Sadly, many people paid insane prices during a crazy COVID bubble. They have already lost money. Often they claim they don't care about the money but the sensitivity many display when falling prices are discussed suggests otherwise.

I have no doubt we will return to MSRP. Just a matter of time. Normal business will be resumed. There may be dead cat bounces along the way but we are heading back to MSRP, even discounts. ADs will resist but the market will prevail. Rolex pumping out a million watches a year is like gravity, always pulling prices down to MSRP. When the flippers and the spivs disappear you will be left with those people who just want to buy a watch: collectors, people buying for birthdays, for special anniversaries etc.

Prices crashing and availability are the issues at the moment, so it not surprising they are discussed. Just skip those threads or start your own thread about what you do want to discuss, if they cause anxiety.

For youngsters who only became interested in Rolex watches during the last few years it may seem incredible to them that normal is buying a watch at MSRP or even with a discount. Paying x2 or x3 the retail price is abnormal and it has been amazing to see how people behave during a bubble.

The end of COVID, prices returning to normal, the end of shortages, the world reopening, travel getting back to normal and governments and citizens living sensibly and within their means, paying their bills, is great news. The end of the amatuer flipper, whatever they are flipping, is great news. We should be optimistic about the future. Being able to buy the products we want again is good news. The last few COVID years were never going to continue indefinitely. May they never return.

Those who got caught up in the bubble. Cut you losses now, if you still can, or just enjoy your watches and learn from the experience.

Total rubbish.

[Moondoggy]

Unfortunately I have been puking in my mouth for a few years now with where this hobby has gone.

[Nauti]

Cars, watches, art, wine, whiskey, property etc are all physical items that have a value whatever that may be at any point in time subject to market fluctuations / conditions.

Comparisons of said physical assets with crypto values and cryptos extremes of volatility are tenuous at best

However its fair to say a sector of what drove the watch market to its recent highs have possibly exited the market having been pummelled by exposure to crypto causing a cooling and some of the quick buck dealers who borrowed to buy inventory will evaporate.

The dust will settle wars will come to an end energy prices will lower (there’s no shortage currently just higher profits for suppliers).

Lists for in demand pieces will shorten but be in no doubt there will still be a ‘list’

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

He or she has repeatedly claimed he/she has been collecting watches for 4 decades so that qualifies him/her as a veteran?

I've been driving cars for five decades. I'm Mary Barra, and I never realised.

I've been riding motorcycles too, so maybe I'm Jochen Zeitz?

Confusing.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

How did you even formulate those questions in the first place about someone you do not know in online forums? Like I'm angsty, insecure, buying "fashion watch" and angry that it's diminishing in value. There must be a basis surely? Or are they pure rhetoric?

I have been here for more than 4 years and I have never asked those ridiculous questions of anyone. And I only have 1 account here.

How are these personal questions relevant to the discussions here?

Try to ignore it. I've had very similar treatment from this character, who is claiming that he started collecting Rolex watches in his teenage years - a likely story!

I had a successful and reasonably well-paid career in hospital medicine, but with children, school fees, mortgage, etc., it wasn't until the age of 38 that I found I could finally afford my first Rolex. That was in 2001. I've built a small collection since that first one, with some bought and sold along the way - always at a loss - but despite telling him this, he persistently accuses me of being an anxious newbie watch investor who is in over his head, and terrified of falling prices.

I've bought two watches which, through blind luck, happen to have become very popular since I bought them. One is an FPJ I acquired used and at half it's MSRP in 2016. He's not started on that one yet, but he's given me endless grief about a Nautilus I bought in 2011, accusing me of buying it "as an investment", claiming that I'm "not a true enthusiast", and set himself up as somehow morally superior because he "doesn't care about values", despite multiple posts on the topic himself. He's projected feelings of anger and fear onto me because the prices have fallen a little in the past month or so. All this, and he doesn't know me from Adam.

FWIW I retired at 55, debt-free and with an extremely good index-linked Government pension, and because of that I don't have any clear need to invest in anything at all now. Having developed the habit of saving and investing all my life, it's a very pleasant change for me to no longer need to. I'm completely out of the stock market, having sold my portfolio in Feb '20 because, as a doctor, I saw the potential for a global crash caused by the looming pandemic.

The only reason I wish to sell the Nautilus is that its value makes me uneasy about people with bad intent spotting it. I'm waiting for it to be discontinued before selling on the advice of a watch dealer I spoke to, who thinks it will go up again.

[Moondoggy]

Goodness me. May the force be with you.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Given the strong emotions on both sides of this argument, I think we can all agree this hobby has changed, and not for the better.

It hasn't changed much for me. Two Rolex watches I particularly like have been hard to get. One was a long wait and the other (still not in my collection) will be a longer wait. I still collect watches of all shapes, sizes, brands and price points, and wear them for the love and enjoyment of it.

There's a lot on noise at the moment and a lot of idiots creating it. Don't take any notice. It's as irritating as you want it to be. If it impacts on plans, wants and aspirations, change them or hold back. It will pass.

[sneakertinker]

Oh ffs…This place is ridiculous…

How anyone that’s even remotely a watch enthusiast can complain about lowering prices is beyond me. I mean honestly, wouldn’t it stand to reason that spending less money for a watch you want, as an enthusiast, is a good thing?

[temporarychicken]

I bought my first 18 years ago.

I wanted to buy a new one a year ago. The market was going nuts. Then it went more nuts.

When things come back to MRSP I'll buy. If they never do, I wont.

Let's see who dies first? It's either the watch boom or me lol!

[David001]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Try to ignore it. I've had very similar treatment from this character, who is claiming that he started collecting Rolex watches in his teenage years - a likely story!

I had a successful and reasonably well-paid career in hospital medicine, but with children, school fees, mortgage, etc., it wasn't until the age of 38 that I found I could finally afford my first Rolex. That was in 2001. I've built a small collection since that first one, with some bought and sold along the way - always at a loss - but despite telling him this, he persistently accuses me of being an anxious newbie watch investor who is in over his head, and terrified of falling prices.

I've bought two watches which, through blind luck, happen to have become very popular since I bought them. One is an FPJ I acquired used and at half it's MSRP in 2016. He's not started on that one yet, but he's given me endless grief about a Nautilus I bought in 2011, accusing me of buying it "as an investment", claiming that I'm "not a true enthusiast", and set himself up as somehow morally superior because he "doesn't care about values", despite multiple posts on the topic himself. He's projected feelings of anger and fear onto me because the prices have fallen a little in the past month or so. All this, and he doesn't know me from Adam.

FWIW I retired at 55, debt-free and with an extremely good index-linked Government pension, and because of that I don't have any clear need to invest in anything at all now. Having developed the habit of saving and investing all my life, it's a very pleasant change for me to no longer need to. I'm completely out of the stock market, having sold my portfolio in Feb '20 because, as a doctor, I saw the potential for a global crash caused by the looming pandemic.

The only reason I wish to sell the Nautilus is that its value makes me uneasy about people with bad intent spotting it. I'm waiting for it to be discontinued before selling on the advice of a watch dealer I spoke to, who thinks it will go up again.

If you stop making stuff up and referencing me then I'll simply stop responding to you. You're not a victim.

For example, show me a single post where I said I bought a Rolex in my teens. You post what can only be described as lies and then get bent out of shape when I point it out. Now you're claiming to be a doctor, if you were then I shudder to think of what your patients endured. I honestly think you've got something wrong with you, it's not just me is it, you seem to annoy quite a lot of people on here.

If you and the other fellow stop making underhand comments then I'll never respond to either of you again. You're in total control of this, stop playing the victim.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by David001

I'll simply stop responding to you.

Great! Do it, please. You've given me endless grief about my supposed motivations and feelings, and then deny everything when it's pointed out, and I'm not the only person you've targeted in a very similar way on the forum.

"claiming to be a doctor" - absolutely typical of your trolling.

[David001]

Ok, I shouldn't have put that picture up, you know the one where I posted an opinion and then you accused me of being a newbie with no watches, so I posted a case full of Rolex and Patek with a handwritten note lying on them saying that you were a bit dim. That's what started all this.

I deleted the picture.
Now can we move on, or do you want the last word?

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

I 've bought two watches which, through blind luck, happen to have become very popular since I bought them. One is an FPJ I acquired used and at half it's MSRP in 2016. He's not started on that one yet, but he's given me endless grief about a Nautilus I bought in 2011, accusing me of buying it "as an investment", claiming that I'm "not a true enthusiast", and set himself up as somehow morally superior because he "doesn't care about values", despite multiple posts on the topic himself. He's projected feelings of anger and fear onto me because the prices have fallen a little in the past month or so. All this, and he doesn't know me from Adam.

Every word resonates with me, and thanks for sharing. However, I don't think we need to justify our watch journey or collection to a troll who can singlehandedly start a fight in an empty room. That said, I will never get so bitter and triggered over someone's and wife's collection. There are so many of members with superior timepieces that I can only dream of, and actually that's one of the biggest reasons I came to TRF - to see nice watches and read about members' experience with them.

Nice 5513 you posted the other day.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Moondoggy

Unfortunately I have been puking in my mouth for a few years now with where this hobby has gone.

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by sneakertinker

Oh ffs…This place is ridiculous…

How anyone that’s even remotely a watch enthusiast can complain about lowering prices is beyond me. I mean honestly, wouldn’t it stand to reason that spending less money for a watch you want, as an enthusiast, is a good thing?

Yes indeed. Prices falling, watches actually being available to buy, with no AD nonsense, no long waiting lists, - is a good thing. But clearly not for everyone. Draw your own conclusions why that is.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

I've been driving cars for five decades. I'm Mary Barra, and I never realised.

I've been riding motorcycles too, so maybe I'm Jochen Zeitz?

I'm in agreement with the point you are making.