Low Balling....

[MJ EXPLORER]

Originally Posted by rpstrimple

Daytonas are always going to be hard to get. It's the unicorn of the brand. But subs and GMTs? I wouldn't be surprised to see those in cases in a year.

This is spot on. I’ve seen every hot model over the years just sitting in the case; except a steel Daytona. I’ve seen lots of wealthy guys walking in wearing them, but they never stop to look at watches. They go right on passed to the overpriced jewelry with their wife/significant other.

I’ve seen this scenario play out 20 times over the years and it is always without exception a white dial Daytona.


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[pepemaui]

Originally Posted by MJ EXPLORER

This is spot on. I’ve seen every hot model over the years just sitting in the case; except a steel Daytona. I’ve seen lots of wealthy guys walking in wearing them, but they never stop to look at watches. They go right on passed to the overpriced jewelry with their wife/significant other.

I’ve seen this scenario play out 20 times over the years and it is always without exception a white dial Daytona.


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Yeah, Daytona always the same circa 80's onward....Maybe even before...

[martinr]

Never understood the “no lowball offers” request. It takes zero amount of time to not respond.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Crazy when it comes from members that self-reportedly have multiple decades of Rolex experience. Almost like they remember the past and don’t want it back. Not sure why. Buying a Rolex felt more special back then to me, not less.

It’s obvious which ones have recently purchased on the secondary market. A quick search in their thread history will show. That’s a risk one takes when they buy at market prices.

They also like to pick on new joiners on the forum saying they’re pressing forward a biased agenda. I own RG DD40 olive, but you don’t see me denying a 25-35% market drop on them. The state of the secondary prices doesn’t affect me given I bought at or below retail from the AD.

[skatamail]

Originally Posted by boomer28

agree 100% here. Wait times will drop, check out the "ad wait times megathread" on reddit. Seeing more people with zero/limited history waiting <=6 months for a variety of pieces. Secondary market will cool but there will always be a premium for the gmt/daytona type watches but it will be a bit more reasonable.

amen

[ResidencyEvil]

Originally Posted by ronricks

The models that will be in the cases are likely to be Datejusts, Oyster Perpetuals, Yacht Masters, and Day Dates etc. which was the case up until 2019. I doubt you will see Subs and GMT's in cases unless things get really bad.

I distinctly remember seeing a sub in a case and being offered it in 2015. It's a sub. It's supposed to be available.

[MJ EXPLORER]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

It’s obvious which ones have recently purchased on the secondary market. A quick search in their thread history will show. That’s a risk one takes when they buy at market prices.

They also like to pick on new joiners on the forum saying they’re pressing forward a biased agenda. I own RG DD40 olive, but you don’t see me denying a 25-35% market drop on them. The state of the secondary prices doesn’t affect me given I bought at or below retail from the AD.

Abe, can we all just stop and appreciate how awesome your screen name and avatar are? The sausage king of Chicago!


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[Chewbacca]

Originally Posted by MJ EXPLORER

Abe, can we all just stop and appreciate how awesome your screen name and avatar are? The sausage king of Chicago!


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Here here.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by MJ EXPLORER

Abe, can we all just stop and appreciate how awesome your screen name and avatar are? The sausage king of Chicago!


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I appreciate it!

When I’m not attending to my maître d’ responsibilities at Chez Quis, I’m chatting watches here w/ my fellow peers.

[Reikolexguy]

Originally Posted by Mystro

The genie is out of the bottle with AD’s by using Rolex as a carat to sell other jewelry. It’s never going to go back to the way it was buying a Rolex at a AD with watches in the display cases. Those days are long gone.
It’s a hard pill to accept for some and Rolex might not ever fit into their comfort zone of purchasing but fortunately there are many other brands with full display cases that can be purchased on the spot, even with a discount that will fit into their buying criteria.

I second that.

For customers to come begging for your product is a dream come true for any business.

There is an overriding financial incentive to maintain the current status quo where the supplier gets to pick its customer entirely at its own discretion, safe in the knowledge that there’s a whole line of eager customers who are more than happy to give you their money.

Even if Rolex were to ramp up production to the point where supply catches up to demand, the ADs and flippers will continue to engage in all manner of marketing & sales kabuki in order to keep this gravy train going.

Only a catastrophic drop in consumer demand for Rolex is going to change the current landscape. And I doubt it’ll happen anytime soon, if ever.


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[Cigars&Watches]

I agree with Mystro

Professional SS pieces like subs, GMTS, SD,EXP will never be in display cases again. If times go back to pre pandemic levels these pieces will be bundled back to the greys.. and not offered walk-ins who provide next to zero return for buying that piece…

You’ll see DD, DJ ,ladies, TT, PM in cases. Buy one of those and you could get a sub etc..

It makes no business sense for an AD you to put SS in display cases. It will not happen

[rpstrimple]

Funny, I thought Rolex were getting a little picky about how their ADs distribute watches. I guess they would have to turn a blind eye if ADs just kicked them to grey dealers.

I realize my opinions may be a little drastic or worst case scenario. But I would not be shocked to see some SS sports models in cases in a year. That's just my opinion. I've been following things since around 2012 (not that that makes me an expert at all).

It's all just hype. Once the hype fades and money isn't to be made flipping luxury goods, then we just go back to an AD actually selling watches to people off the street. Folks celebrating a promotion, a big casino win, a new child, wedding, etc. It's arguably better for the brand if it reverts back and it blows up. Then you might 1) attract new customers who become loyal to the brand 2) welcome back old customers who've had to sit on the sidelines for years because they weren't paying inflated, hype driven, prices.

The easy money will leave. It always does.

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by Cigars&Watches

I agree with Mystro

Professional SS pieces like subs, GMTS, SD,EXP will never be in display cases again. If times go back to pre pandemic levels these pieces will be bundled back to the greys.. and not offered walk-ins who provide next to zero return for buying that piece…

You’ll see DD, DJ ,ladies, TT, PM in cases. Buy one of those and you could get a sub etc..

It makes no business sense for an AD you to put SS in display cases. It will not happen

The "New Paradigm" stage of the bubble.

[pepemaui]

Originally Posted by Reikolexguy

I second that.

For customers to come begging for your product is a dream come true for any business.

There is an overriding financial incentive to maintain the current status quo where the supplier gets to pick its customer entirely at its own discretion, safe in the knowledge that there’s a whole line of eager customers who are more than happy to give you their money.

Even if Rolex were to ramp up production to the point where supply catches up to demand, the ADs and flippers will continue to engage in all manner of marketing & sales kabuki in order to keep this gravy train going.

Only a catastrophic drop in consumer demand for Rolex is going to change the current landscape. And I doubt it’ll happen anytime soon, if ever.


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Makes sense...sort of.....

How does closing dozens of AD's play into that?

[Reikolexguy]

Originally Posted by johnwigan

The "New Paradigm" stage of the bubble.

Regardless of what stage of the Rolex bubble we are in, I’ll probably die from old age before I can finally receive from my AD an allocation of the SS black dial sky dweller.

Starting to think I should mortgage the kids and just go grey.


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[Mystro]

Originally Posted by pepemaui

Makes sense...sort of.....

How does closing dozens of AD's play into that?

Funnels more customers (ie.demand) to the AD’s left and gives them even more power over the final product to decide who and what conditions it takes to buy a Rolex. This “ultimate control” strategy was established and put in motion a long time ago when Rolex took parts accounts away from very good independent Rolex watchmakers. You have to stop thinking that Rolex is in the business to sell watches. Rolex is in business to protect and sell the brand. Rolex is the master at what they do beyond any other luxury brand and is ridiculous to second guess they don’t have everything mapped out decades in advanced regardless what the economy does. Rolex is a long term player set on keeping its dominance.

[dnd2984]

Originally Posted by pepemaui

Gotta say, I am NOT unhappy.....Im slightly tickled to read that when watches were being offered at 500% (John Mayer), $200k, and some offered $150k (Not Me) they were called "LOWBALLERS" for their 350% offer.....

Still amazes me to see post "reasonable offers considered" and "No Low Ballers" when the asking price was 2-5 times MSRP.....Interesting how they thought they were the judge and jury of the asking and offer price...

I personally would start offering retail or below on any watch people are interested in obtaining....There is a plethora of inventory waiting....If they say ^*$#+@ you, so what....

When did free markets and capitalism die?

[Incroyable12]

Originally Posted by martinr

Never understood the “no lowball offers” request. It takes zero amount of time to not respond.

I've also noticed that in some cultures lowballing is a way of starting negotiations.

[Reikolexguy]

Originally Posted by pepemaui

Makes sense...sort of.....

How does closing dozens of AD's play into that?

Originally Posted by pepemaui

Makes sense...sort of.....

How does closing dozens of AD's play into that?

I’d proffer the following reasons:

From a business point of view, it’s probably financially advantageous to concentrate & divert most of their stock to their biggest AD customers.

The big ADs have the highest turnover and it’ll save Rolex a lot of $$ on the administrative costs alone when they streamline the number of ADs they have. It inevitably costs more to service a small AD in a small city / town.

Big ADs will always have a larger order book and are much more likely to be situated in a prime area of a large, well connected metropolis.

These big ADs will have higher footfall traffic which translates into potentially higher sales. And logistics is much less of a hassle for Rolex too.

If we take Rolex word at face value, that they simply can’t keep up with demand, then I suppose it does make sense to channel what limited stock they have to their biggest clients.

It’s just how it is in business, I suppose. Most business would do the same thing and pay more attention to their biggest accounts.

Perhaps the only drawback to this is that it concentrates the AD pool, and the greater leverage that entails will often end up costing end customers like us more at retail. When industries consolidate & become concentrated, more often than not, prices & profits of the largest players go up.

For the smaller ADs who got their badges pulled by Rolex on this basis alone, it’ll really leave a sour taste in their mouths, unfortunately. Especially if they’ve been Rolex retailers for a long time.

With that being said, I’m an idiot who is often completely wrong on most things.


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[Incroyable12]

Many of these older smaller ADs seem like second-tier mom and pop jewelers so I'm assuming Rolex wants to consolidate and make sure all the ADs are prestigious enough and located in high income status cities like Greenwich, CT and the major metropolises.

[fsprow]

Certainly not forecasting price changes but an important difference from several years ago is high Asian (particularly Chinese) watch demand. Strong COVID restrictions over the last year have greatly reduced this demand but their lifting may substantially increase demand again. We will see.

[NachoNeal]

Visited my favorite grey today and he said he had more rolex stock than ever before. Said they're just not selling.

[rolex16]

^and what do you think will happen because of this? Greys stop or dramatically slow buying, AD sales follow suit and slow down but they have to keep buying from Rolex each month and the pressure builds til they start putting the watches in cases. Not hard to figure out folks.

[Reikolexguy]

Originally Posted by rolex16

^and what do you think will happen because of this? Greys stop or dramatically slow buying, AD sales follow suit and slow down but they have to keep buying from Rolex each month and the pressure builds til they start putting the watches in cases. Not hard to figure out folks.

This is an important point to note.

ADs have minimum sales targets to achieve in order to retain the Rolex agency.




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[rpstrimple]

I think we are already seeing a shift in grey buying. According to some folks, they just flat out aren’t. Big sign there.

More people seem to be getting “the call.” Sounds like more folks at the top of lists aren’t buying from ADs and folks further on down the line are getting the opportunity. Maybe it’s a sign of the economic times, maybe buying action has slowed due to the novice flippers who got on lists. Who knows. But it seems more watch people are getting watches to actually wear.

Add on the reports of massive inventories at greys that aren’t moving. Then look at the moda groups and nothing is really moving. It all starts to add up. It’s all a matter of who blinks first.

[Incroyable12]

It's obvious that most of the people who were buying during the frenzy were those who hit it big during the Crypto boom.

[boomer28]

Originally Posted by Incroyable12

It's obvious that most of the people who were buying during the frenzy were those who hit it big during the Crypto boom.

Yea some deny this but "new money" seeks out old school luxury goods to fit in. I saw this on Wall Street in the pre-2008 boom with lotta sales/trading guys who stumbled into high 6 figure jobs overnight. Brewsters millions type behavior. One guy spent 2 grand on cashmere socks, I shit you not...

[Slambonie]

Originally Posted by Mystro

[QUOTE=smg8;12206423]Why?

You could get discounts on PM Rolexes and walk in to buy watches for decades.

It then changed due to a global pandemic and the knock on effects (too much liquidity in markets, limited options for discretionary spend, free money being given away, supply chain shortages).

So why would it not go back to before as those various factors unwind? Why would you think the decades that preceded the past couple of years are a blip and the last couple of years is a new normal, rather than the last couple of years being a blip?

The lack of Rolex SS models in a AD was years before the Covid lock downs and decades when considering the SS Daytona. The forum was filled with pages as soon as Covid first hit declaring the world was going to end for Rolex and the bubble was going to burst.

It’s a different Rolex brand now in the way it is perceived by the general public and the way AD’s have now used it as a tool to sell other products. Some like to demonize the grey market but it is the AD’s that are the first to handle a Rolex watch directly from Rolex and it’s the AD’s that will never put them in a display case again for open sales. There is too much leverage and power now utilized by the AD to ever let that go. Rolex approves and even continues to thin out their franchise funneling even more customers to less dealers. Rolex also is helping the AD with their tactics by giving them “display models”. We are so far away from Rolex 15 years ago it isn’t possible to return to those days.[/QUOTE]

You know you can disregard anything this fish says with how extreme of language he uses. "never" and "isn't possible to return" lol i mean i know he must be trolling because no one could go to such extremes and be serious.

[taitun4life]

Originally Posted by Reikolexguy

I second that.

For customers to come begging for your product is a dream come true for any business.

There is an overriding financial incentive to maintain the current status quo where the supplier gets to pick its customer entirely at its own discretion, safe in the knowledge that there’s a whole line of eager customers who are more than happy to give you their money.

Even if Rolex were to ramp up production to the point where supply catches up to demand, the ADs and flippers will continue to engage in all manner of marketing & sales kabuki in order to keep this gravy train going.

Only a catastrophic drop in consumer demand for Rolex is going to change the current landscape. And I doubt it’ll happen anytime soon, if ever.


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If the trend continues the demand drop will happen. Definitely not spontaneously but gradually and by the time the brand realizes it, it’s always too late. I can think of some brand in the IT/Communications sector.

Simple law of physics and business; “for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction”

If Rolex continues with this trend like Hermes et al… they won’t be here in another 50yrs. 💯

[Reikolexguy]

Originally Posted by taitun4life

If the trend continues the demand drop will happen. Definitely not spontaneously but gradually and by the time the brand realizes it, it’s always too late. I can think of some brand in the IT/Communications sector.

Simple law of physics and business; “for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction”

If Rolex continues with this trend like Hermes et al… they won’t be here in another 50yrs.

True. You make some very valid points.

On a side note, I reckon that after 50 years, I’d probably still be waiting for an SS black dial sky dweller allocation from my AD. Oh well…


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