Determining Market Value

[hennabav]

I've been thinking about this topic ever since I wrote my last thread regarding the 16710 with 3186 movement. We all know that that is a very rare watch and is currently bringing a bit of a premium in prices. Well my question is what exactly determines the premium value of a watch for people??

There are many people out there that say the watch is no different and will not be worth any different than a 3185 16710 and will need to wait 20 years to be worth anything. I understand that value is driven by supply and demand in its most basic sense but why does it really take 20 years to know whether the watch is worth anything or not. Another question is how do people predict future value as well. For example, the Explorer II orange hand and the original Milguass, those were impossible to sell and nobody wanted them. Some people would say that its all driven by demand. But there were certainly not much demand when it first came out.

Just curious to hear what others have to say about this and what their opinions are. Do people think the 16710 - 3186 is going to be a very collectible item that holds high value or just the same model with a different movement?? I have read on the Rolex Reference website that they estimated there's only about 35000 or so produced.

[smallcandle]

My short answer is supply and demand vs. a specific person's desire to aquire a "unique" piece coupled with a willingness to spend close to whatever the asking price might be. You will never predict a watch's value 20 years from now and I think it is futile to even try.

[Evan614]

My father always said "It is only worth what someone else is willing spending for it"

[HL65]

Well said Evan614--and given that people are paying the premium --and the supply is less--and the demand is there--those all work for it. I personally own one and plan on keeping it and wearing it sparingly.

[mmmmp]

Here's another example of S vs D

A friend of mine's father collects Beatle rarities. Now, get this: he purchased for a large sum a copy of The Beatles first write up in U.K's Mersyside newspaper. (We're talking about a local, Liverpool, newsprint publication.) It's basically a few sheets of paper - intrinsic value of nothing.

He's been offered USD $20,000.00 for it. Yes, it's rare, in good condition and has history - but let's face it - it's not really *worth* anything. At least a Rolex, any Rolex has value. Heck, I've even heard they can keep time too!

Anyway, just my opinion.
Mark

[JUSTROLEXES]

Originally Posted by Evan614

My father always said "It is only worth what someone else is willing spending for it"

X2

[rfknauss]

Originally Posted by Evan614

My father always said "It is only worth what someone else is willing spending for it"

[BASSETHOUNDS]

Originally Posted by hennabav

I've been thinking about this topic ever since I wrote my last thread regarding the 16710 with 3186 movement. We all know that that is a very rare watch and is currently bringing a bit of a premium in prices. Well my question is what exactly determines the premium value of a watch for people??

There are many people out there that say the watch is no different and will not be worth any different than a 3185 16710 and will need to wait 20 years to be worth anything. I understand that value is driven by supply and demand in its most basic sense but why does it really take 20 years to know whether the watch is worth anything or not. Another question is how do people predict future value as well. For example, the Explorer II orange hand and the original Milguass, those were impossible to sell and nobody wanted them. Some people would say that its all driven by demand. But there were certainly not much demand when it first came out.

Just curious to hear what others have to say about this and what their opinions are. Do people think the 16710 - 3186 is going to be a very collectible item that holds high value or just the same model with a different movement?? I have read on the Rolex Reference website that they estimated there's only about 35000 or so produced.

You say ONLY 35000 produced , that should answer your question . Also nothing on the documents gives away that the watch is fitted with a 3186 . Fat chance that Rolex will disclose the serial numbers of all those fitted with one . So even in the unlikely event that all of these 35000 start fetching serious premiums what will prevent a scammer to fit a 3186 in a 16710 , these movements are not much of a rarity neither .
It's a bit like "beauty is in the eye of the beholder" . There are always 2 prices on the same object : one of the seller and the other of the buyer .
I honestly think that this"rarity" will only cater to some hardened Rolex collectors , lets say a few thousand . The other 30.000 will have to sit on their investment .
Just think that all those models fetching big bucks like Comex , DRSD , PM Daytona's etc , sure none were originally bought with investment in mind .
Just my 2c

[TurboWatch]

Originally Posted by BASSETHOUNDS

. So even in the unlikely event that all of these 35000 start fetching serious premiums what will prevent a scammer to fit a 3186 in a 16710 , these movements are not much of a rarity neither .

Just my 2c

Now who in his right mind (unless he's sixpence short of a shilling as Paddi often says) would take a 3186 from say an Explorer II ( $4K currently ) and install that in a Z serial GMT II ( $4-$4.5K ) to produce a $6-$6.5K GMT w/3186 ?

[HL65]

X2....Why is this debate still going on anyway?? The market speaks for itself. End of story. Tom--I know you know!!