Now 35k - OP 41 Turquoise Tiffany

[Goin2drt]

Originally Posted by rlx123

What about the guy who is smart enough to earn a good fortune and wants to pay grey price for a watch because he doesn’t want to play the AD game?


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This right here. $35k to many many many people is a rounding error. They see something they like or something that will get them likes on social media they will drop that amount no problem.

I do worry about the group of people right now though that are spending their paper money like drunken sailors. They see their 401k or real estate investment prices on Zillow and feel they “have made it”. They go spend and usually leverage themselves and then the correction comes AS IT ALWAYS DOES. Good night Irene.

[Nav01L]

Just consider this, and it may all end up making sense:

5711 Nautilus
- Prestige brand: CHECK
- Reasonably achievable list price in the greater scope of the brand: CHECK
- Highly distinctive, easily recognizable design: CHECK
- Extraneous event brings it to the forefront of popular attention: CHECK (2018, JayZ starts dropping bars like "No jewels in this Patek Philippe")
- Adopted by popular culture as a status symbol: CHECK
- Sharp rise in demand: CHECK
- Limited availability: CHECK
- Critical voices, disbelief, and disgruntlement in the community: CHECK
- Eventual acceptance of the stratospheric new price level it went to: CHECK
- Resulting valuation: 120,000++

15202 Royal Oak
- Prestige brand: CHECK
- Reasonably achievable list price in the greater scope of the brand: CHECK
- Highly distinctive, easily recognizable design: CHECK
- Extraneous event brings it to the forefront of popular attention: CHECK (being the original Genta watch in a Genta craze initiated by the 5711)
- Adopted by popular culture as a status symbol: CHECK
- Sharp rise in demand: CHECK
- Limited availability: CHECK
- Critical voices, disbelief, and disgruntlement in the community: CHECK
- Eventual acceptance of the stratospheric new price level it went to: CHECK
- Resulting valuation: 105,000++

124300-0006 OP
- Prestige brand: CHECK
- Reasonably achievable list price in the greater scope of the brand: CHECK
- Highly distinctive, easily recognizable design: CHECK
- Extraneous event brings it to the forefront of popular attention: CHECK (Tiffany 5711)
- Adopted by popular culture as a status symbol: Very much in the process
- Sharp rise in demand: Very much in the process
- Limited availability: Probably less out there in total than either of the two above
- Critical voices, disbelief, and disgruntlement in the community: Very very very much in the process
- Eventual acceptance of the stratospheric new price level it went to: We shall see
- Resulting valuation: We shall see

[bibbi]

Now that the "issue" of the OP Turquoise blue price trend is all over the press (ok, maybe all over subject-specialized press) we may sit down and have good time watching the prices increase.

https://timeandtidewatches.com/waw-h...ual-turquoise/

https://www.fratellowatches.com/the-...-doesnt-exist/

[Randy9999]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

Just consider this, and it may all end up making sense:

5711 Nautilus
- Prestige brand: CHECK
- Reasonably achievable list price in the greater scope of the brand: CHECK
- Highly distinctive, easily recognizable design: CHECK
- Extraneous event brings it to the forefront of popular attention: CHECK (2018, JayZ starts dropping bars like "No jewels in this Patek Philippe")
- Adopted by popular culture as a status symbol: CHECK
- Sharp rise in demand: CHECK
- Limited availability: CHECK
- Critical voices, disbelief, and disgruntlement in the community: CHECK
- Eventual acceptance of the stratospheric new price level it went to: CHECK
- Resulting valuation: 120,000++

15202 Royal Oak
- Prestige brand: CHECK
- Reasonably achievable list price in the greater scope of the brand: CHECK
- Highly distinctive, easily recognizable design: CHECK
- Extraneous event brings it to the forefront of popular attention: CHECK (being the original Genta watch in a Genta craze initiated by the 5711)
- Adopted by popular culture as a status symbol: CHECK
- Sharp rise in demand: CHECK
- Limited availability: CHECK
- Critical voices, disbelief, and disgruntlement in the community: CHECK
- Eventual acceptance of the stratospheric new price level it went to: CHECK
- Resulting valuation: 105,000++

124300-0006 OP
- Prestige brand: CHECK
- Reasonably achievable list price in the greater scope of the brand: CHECK
- Highly distinctive, easily recognizable design: CHECK
- Extraneous event brings it to the forefront of popular attention: CHECK (Tiffany 5711)
- Adopted by popular culture as a status symbol: Very much in the process
- Sharp rise in demand: Very much in the process
- Limited availability: Probably less out there in total than either of the two above
- Critical voices, disbelief, and disgruntlement in the community: Very very very much in the process
- Eventual acceptance of the stratospheric new price level it went to: We shall see
- Resulting valuation: We shall see

Best post yet by far that attempts to explain this phenomenon.

[Rori]

Originally Posted by rlx123

What about the guy who is smart enough to earn a good fortune and wants to pay grey price for a watch because he doesn’t want to play the AD game?


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Money is not a factor here, paying 30k for a 5K watch that is not discontinued or limited edition is insane and I don’t think that even billionaires do it. I would go to my AD and tell him I have 30K to spent at your store for Christmas, I want at least 3 steel Rolexes one of them is a turquoise OP. I’m sure I’ll get the call in no time:-)


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[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by Rori

Money is not a factor here, paying 30k for a 5K watch that is not discontinued or limited edition is insane and I don’t think that even billionaires do it. I would go to my AD and tell him I have 30K to spent at your store for Christmas, I want at least 3 steel Rolexes one of them is a turquoise OP. I’m sure I’ll get the call in no time:-)


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Well how about you do that then? I’m sure nobody has thought about this before you at this point.

In the meantime, what’s insane is attaching the notion of a watch’s value to its MSRP. These watches have become a social phenomenon. They are not cogs, wheels, oils and hands. They are a projection of who we want to be perceived as in the world. The more popular they get, the better they work in that capacity and the higher the demand for them.

An OP 41 in robin egg blue would have portrayed you as a somewhat effeminate, fashion forward extrovert a year ago, which few folks wanted and values were low. Now, things have evolved and mass adoption was propelled by the Tiffany story. If you wear one now, it tells the world that you too are bang on trend, along with some of the coolest individuals in the game. That perception, to many folks has been worth the six figure prices of the Nautilus and Royal Oak for long enough now, so why wouldn’t they spend 30k for a robin egg OP, especially since the blue Genta watches are all but played out? And why would that be mad if they are getting exactly what they’re looking for?

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

Just consider this, and it may all end up making sense:

5711 Nautilus
- Prestige brand: CHECK
- Reasonably achievable list price in the greater scope of the brand: CHECK
- Highly distinctive, easily recognizable design: CHECK
- Extraneous event brings it to the forefront of popular attention: CHECK (2018, JayZ starts dropping bars like "No jewels in this Patek Philippe")
- Adopted by popular culture as a status symbol: CHECK
- Sharp rise in demand: CHECK
- Limited availability: CHECK
- Critical voices, disbelief, and disgruntlement in the community: CHECK
- Eventual acceptance of the stratospheric new price level it went to: CHECK
- Resulting valuation: 120,000++

15202 Royal Oak
- Prestige brand: CHECK
- Reasonably achievable list price in the greater scope of the brand: CHECK
- Highly distinctive, easily recognizable design: CHECK
- Extraneous event brings it to the forefront of popular attention: CHECK (being the original Genta watch in a Genta craze initiated by the 5711)
- Adopted by popular culture as a status symbol: CHECK
- Sharp rise in demand: CHECK
- Limited availability: CHECK
- Critical voices, disbelief, and disgruntlement in the community: CHECK
- Eventual acceptance of the stratospheric new price level it went to: CHECK
- Resulting valuation: 105,000++

124300-0006 OP
- Prestige brand: CHECK
- Reasonably achievable list price in the greater scope of the brand: CHECK
- Highly distinctive, easily recognizable design: CHECK
- Extraneous event brings it to the forefront of popular attention: CHECK (Tiffany 5711)
- Adopted by popular culture as a status symbol: Very much in the process
- Sharp rise in demand: Very much in the process
- Limited availability: Probably less out there in total than either of the two above
- Critical voices, disbelief, and disgruntlement in the community: Very very very much in the process
- Eventual acceptance of the stratospheric new price level it went to: We shall see
- Resulting valuation: We shall see

I agree with most of this, but as a Brit who was right there in June 2016 I do still think it was actually WIS that started the hype train as they went crazy for the Nautilus and SS Rolex, but not Omega or even AP initially, after Brexit when the watches here suddenly became dead cheap for those abroad, and thus once prices start rising then everyone around the world starts to take notice, so altho rappers and SM have hyped things beyond belief since then, at least the catalyst was from WIS and watch people who spotted these bargains, to begin this whole new era.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by bibbi

Now that the "issue" of the OP Turquoise blue price trend is all over the press (ok, maybe all over subject-specialized press) we may sit down and have good time watching the prices increase.

https://timeandtidewatches.com/waw-h...ual-turquoise/

https://www.fratellowatches.com/the-...-doesnt-exist/

I think these online magazines have also really affected the watch market, they were only about the watches before but are now equally about pricesl they are just like the old stocks and shares magazines with their buy recommendations, watches really have been commoditized.

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by AK797

I think these online magazines have also really affected the watch market, they were only about the watches before but are now equally about pricesl they are just like the old stocks and shares magazines with their buy recommendations, watches really have been commoditized.

Very good point

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by AK797

I agree with most of this, but as a Brit who was right there in June 2016 I do still think it was actually WIS that started the hype train as they went crazy for the Nautilus and SS Rolex, but not Omega or even AP initially, after Brexit when the watches here suddenly became dead cheap for those abroad, and thus once prices start rising then everyone around the world starts to take notice, so altho rappers and SM have hyped things beyond belief since then, at least the catalyst was from WIS and watch people who spotted these bargains, to begin this whole new era.

Interesting angle, to some extent certainly true that the initial rebirth of the coolness associated with the Nautilus and the RO is probably a product of the 40th anniversary campaigns, the steel hype professed by people like Clymer and a few others which, for the first time in history reached an audience which was wider than the shady bar they were meeting in and the fact an actual watch community formed on social media.

So yes, the impetus was probably from the WIS and then quickly spread into popular culture through some select artists and celebrities.

Whether Brexit had anything to do with it though I’m not sure. I think the ups and downs of the GBP have certainly been exploited well enough, but not sure that gave rise to anything that wouldn’t otherwise have happened.

[Chadridv]

Originally Posted by bob sims

Looks like the "stupid" people who bought these at 18 weren't so stupid after all?
The "mass produced pieces of metal" crowd seems to have gone to radio silence.
Shane, come back...Shane...

that's a common theme around these parts.

Also, you hear don't buy the hype buy a watch simply cause you love it... lol. OK so that's what I did when I bought my daytona last year for 26k. I didn't buy it for an investment, I didn't buy it cause of hype, I bought it cause selling my other one a couple years prior was my biggest (watch related) regret and it was my goal to get one back. Glad I didn't wait for the price to come back down lol.

Then you have hypocritical investment talk. If you tell me I'm stupid for paying 26k you're likely saying it's a bad investment. Which is the first rule of TRF, you don't talk about investments. So you got people breaking their own rules by passing judgment and criticizing those that pay above retail. While what they're really doing is adding their 2 cents on whether or not it's a good investment. Then you comically have people just constantly being proven wrong as all of these watches continue to climb in value. I love the way these threads age. Go back and look at the "daytona going for $19k" threads and read the comments.

Sorry, rant over.

[rlx123]

Originally Posted by Rori

Money is not a factor here, paying 30k for a 5K watch that is not discontinued or limited edition is insane and I don’t think that even billionaires do it. I would go to my AD and tell him I have 30K to spent at your store for Christmas, I want at least 3 steel Rolexes one of them is a turquoise OP. I’m sure I’ll get the call in no time:-)


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It’s all relative. You wouldn’t think twice paying for a pack of gum. To a billionaire, $35k is like a pack of gum. If the watch is what he wants and it makes him happy, then why not. I think it’s insane to NOT buy what makes you happy just because you worry about the inherent value of the watch, especially when it’s a drop in a bucket for the billionaires or even multimillionaires. You can’t take the money with you when your time is up.


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[Aquaholic_user]

I fart $35k, there's no ceiling.

Sent from my balloon knot

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by rlx123

It’s all relative. You wouldn’t think twice paying for a pack of gum. To a billionaire, $35k is like a pack of gum. If the watch is what he wants and it makes him happy, then why not. I think it’s insane to NOT buy what makes you happy just because you worry about the inherent value of the watch, especially when it’s a drop in a bucket for the billionaires or even multimillionaires. You can’t take the money with you when your time is up.


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How many billionaires are buying this watch? You have no clue who is buying these or any others at grey, no one does except for the dealers themselves. I'm sure there are plenty of people that are leveraging themselves just because of the social hype and must have factor. Otherwise people like David wouldn't be offering Affirm financing. The billionaire ratio is played out, most people get it.

[Deroya]

if anyone spends 30k on an OP. even 10k, they need their head examined

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

Interesting angle, to some extent certainly true that the initial rebirth of the coolness associated with the Nautilus and the RO is probably a product of the 40th anniversary campaigns, the steel hype professed by people like Clymer and a few others which, for the first time in history reached an audience which was wider than the shady bar they were meeting in and the fact an actual watch community formed on social media.

So yes, the impetus was probably from the WIS and then quickly spread into popular culture through some select artists and celebrities.

Whether Brexit had anything to do with it though I’m not sure. I think the ups and downs of the GBP have certainly been exploited well enough, but not sure that gave rise to anything that wouldn’t otherwise have happened.

Yeah it was the shock Brexit vote that tanked the Pound, it was literally the BC and AD for watches looking back. In June you could buy a 5711 and 12 for under retail prices, same with the Subc, in July you simply could not or even find one at retail, a total market change. I remember I was ready to buy an AP ROO and was looking at a few for a couple of months, then in July when I went to pull the trigger, all 3 had been sold in a couple of weeks, and this was just a ROO, not even a RO.

The smart money came in thick and fast that summer and after the UK was spent, the money turned towards the US and other countries soon followed. The way the market has changed so much means that it probably would have gone this way eventually but Brexit probably speeded up the process by a year or two.

[bibbi]

Originally Posted by Deroya

if anyone spends 30k on an OP. even 10k, they need their head examined

It is always dependent on the given point of view.

From our perspective the Sun is huge and far. But then it is just one of approx. 400 billion stars in the Milky Way only. And the Milky Way is just one among billions of galaxies in the Universe. So from the latter POV the Sun os nothing. And so is 30k - for many negligible.

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by bibbi

It is always dependent on the given point of view.

From our perspective the Sun is huge and far. But then it is just one of approx. 400 billion stars in the Milky Way only. And the Milky Way is just one among billions of galaxies in the Universe. So from the latter POV the Sun os nothing. And so is 30k - for many negligible.

All that just to say 30K is nothing to some. You take the long way home?

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

All that just to say 30K is nothing to some. You take the long way home?

But very elegantly so.

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by Rori

Money is not a factor here, paying 30k for a 5K watch that is not discontinued or limited edition is insane and I don’t think that even billionaires do it. I would go to my AD and tell him I have 30K to spent at your store for Christmas, I want at least 3 steel Rolexes one of them is a turquoise OP. I’m sure I’ll get the call in no time:-)


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Are you an expert on what billionaire's do?
They drop a million on a bottle of wine at the drop of a hat.

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by bob sims

Are you an expert on what billionaire's do?

They drop a million on a bottle of wine at the drop of a hat.

But then they will only have 999 more millions

[Driver8]

I find it absolutely hilarious how there are so many daft people out there, who are buying in at these crazy prices simply because it has a slightly similar dial colour to a completely different, limited edition, last of it's line, genuine Tiffany-collaboration (and hence genuinely Tiffany-coloured), Patek watch that sold for crazy money in a charity auction.

The two things are totally and utterly unrelated. It's like if there was suddenly a gold shortage, and people started buying up loads of brass because it's also a metal and it's a similar colour. It makes about as much sense!

I'm not having a go at anyone who bought one at RRP because they liked it, nor those who are now listing them for insane money - I mean, why not? All the time there are clowns prepared to pay for what the latest hype tells them they should be wearing, then why not make money off them? I'm just questioning the sanity of anyone (irrespective of how wealthy they are) who BUYS one of these at 5, 6, 7 times RRP. I find it all hilarious!

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by Driver8

I find it absolutely hilarious how there are so many daft people out there, who are buying in at these crazy prices simply because it has a slightly similar dial colour to a completely different, limited edition, last of it's line, genuine Tiffany-collaboration (and hence genuinely Tiffany-coloured), Patek watch that sold for crazy money in a charity auction.

The two things are totally and utterly unrelated. It's like if there was suddenly a gold shortage, and people started buying up loads of brass because it's also a metal and it's a similar colour. It makes about as much sense!

I'm not having a go at anyone who bought one at RRP because they liked it, nor those who are now listing them for insane money - I mean, why not? All the time there are clowns prepared to pay for what the latest hype tells them they should be wearing, then why not make money off them? I'm just questioning the sanity of anyone (irrespective of how wealthy they are) who BUYS one of these at 5, 6, 7 times RRP. I find it all hilarious!

But Hulk, Daytona, Pepsi, 5711 and RO are fine? Some watches have a social currency component which is so engrained into their image that it's a legitimate part of their appeal and why people like them in the first place and then want to buy them because they genuinely like them. I would argue this could be the case with the OP41 too.

[Driver8]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

But Hulk, Daytona, Pepsi, 5711 and RO are fine? Some watches have a social currency component which is so engrained into their image that it's a legitimate part of their appeal and why people like them in the first place and then want to buy them because they genuinely like them. I would argue this could be the case with the OP41 too.

No, the grey-market prices of those other examples aren't OK either IMO. I started my love of watches during a time when going ga-ga over a certain colour variation wasn't a thing.

But irrespective of that, this turquoise OP has only recently got its 'social currency component' due to lots of people apparently being slightly colour-blind, mistaking the name "Patek" for "Rolex", being unable to see that the words "Tiffany & Co." aren't written on the dial, and the tiny little fact that it's not a limited edition piece.

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by Driver8

No, the grey-market prices of those other examples aren't OK either IMO. I started my love of watches during a time when going ga-ga over a certain colour variation wasn't a thing.



But irrespective of that, this turquoise OP has only recently got its 'social currency component' due to lots of people apparently being slightly colour-blind, mistaking the name "Patek" for "Rolex", being unable to see that the words "Tiffany & Co." aren't written on the dial, and the tiny little fact that it's not a limited edition piece.

It says Tiffany right there, though

[Demon Barber]

Originally Posted by JacksonRain

That's really cute. This is coming from someone who created a post, looking for validation from trf strangers, only a few months ago, stating "hey guys, I was offered the Platinum daytona at retail by my AD I would be crazy to pass this opportunity up right?"

Lol!!

Just out of curiosity, let's just say hypothetically you have to sell your platinum Daytona tomorrow. Would you sell it for 120,000, or will you sell it for the $75,000 you bought it for? If you would sell it for the market, $120,000, would you feel guilty about it? Your words are heartwarming, but your timepiece has a price, a market price. Let us know when you get a chance

Neither of us are flippers. I do not sell my watches. I do feel warm inside when I get a popular watch, and I love hyped pieces. There's a difference. happy holidays.

You're a real piece of work being so condescending and patronizing. If you read the rest of that thread after you stalked my previous posts looking for an argument, you'd see that it was my grail watch and I would never sell it. I was seeking out the public opinion on the rarity to judge the likelihood of ever being offered one again, because it was unexpectedly offered and I wasn't planning on spending so much on a watch at that particular time.

I know my watch could be sold for a profit, but I won't do it. The people who do are why this whole thread and argument exists, and then people hate the watch because they are angry how expensive and unobtainable it has become. That was the point of my post, and it stands on its own merit.

Happy holidays, troll.

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by Demon Barber

You're a real piece of work being so condescending and patronizing. If you read the rest of that thread after you stalked mey previous posts looking for an argument, you'd see that it was my grail watch and I would never sell it. I was seeking out the public opinion on the rarity to judge the likelihood of ever being offered one again, because it was unexpectedly offered and I wasn't planning on spending so much on a watch at that particular time.



I know my watch could be sold for a profit, but I won't do it. The people who do are why this whole thread and argument exists, and then people hate the watch because they are angry how expensive and unobtainable it has become. That was the point of my post, and it stands on its own merit.



Happy holidays, troll.

Neither would I, my friend. We don't sell our watches. We enjoy them. We have that in common.

We are on the same page!

Best of health with your Daytona. It's beautiful. Enjoy cheers

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

But very elegantly so.

Indeed. Fair and well stated!

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by Driver8

No, the grey-market prices of those other examples aren't OK either IMO. I started my love of watches during a time when going ga-ga over a certain colour variation wasn't a thing.

But irrespective of that, this turquoise OP has only recently got its 'social currency component' due to lots of people apparently being slightly colour-blind, mistaking the name "Patek" for "Rolex", being unable to see that the words "Tiffany & Co." aren't written on the dial, and the tiny little fact that it's not a limited edition piece.

- Slightly colorblind: Isn't that slightly unfair to those who find this color and/or its distinctive quality genuinely appealing? In my eyes, while we can debate endlessly whether it is or isn't close enough to Tiffany's brand colors, the Rolex has actually a slightly prettier color tone.

- Mistaking the brand: Why would the appeal be reliant on this. I think its amply clear to any of us that we won't get the Nautilus, so the lack of a Patek inscription is not relevant. Most of us are probably happy enough with this being an attractive and highly recognizable Rolex.

- Lack of Tiffany & Co inscription: See above re the Patek inscription, not sure this is really relevant. The Tiffany piece has no doubt served as a propellant for a new, broader trend. But this trend was arguably already on the way with the Rolex - which believe it or not is an appealing watch on its own merits which was actually getting quite popular before this whole Tiffany affair.

- Not a limited edition: Neither are the regular Nautilusses, and I'd argue they are rare enough. In addition, as I've said before, there are probably less robin egg blue OPs in the world in absolute numbers than there are 5711s. And yet we consider the latter to be rare.

So with all that said, I have to confess, I like the robin egg blue OP to the point where I can see value in it even at 30k. Luckily, I got a call last week that prevented me from having to think about this with any level of seriousness.

[~JJ]

Originally Posted by Nav01L

- Slightly colorblind: Isn't that slightly unfair to those who find this color and/or its distinctive quality genuinely appealing? In my eyes, while we can debate endlessly whether it is or isn't close enough to Tiffany's brand colors, the Rolex has actually a slightly prettier color tone.

- Mistaking the brand: Why would the appeal be reliant on this. I think its amply clear to any of us that we won't get the Nautilus, so the lack of a Patek inscription is not relevant. Most of us are probably happy enough with this being an attractive and highly recognizable Rolex.

- Lack of Tiffany & Co inscription: See above re the Patek inscription, not sure this is really relevant. The Tiffany piece has no doubt served as a propellant for a new, broader trend. But this trend was arguably already on the way with the Rolex - which believe it or not is an appealing watch on its own merits which was actually getting quite popular before this whole Tiffany affair.

- Not a limited edition: Neither are the regular Nautilusses, and I'd argue they are rare enough. In addition, as I've said before, there are probably less robin egg blue OPs in the world in absolute numbers than there are 5711s. And yet we consider the latter to be rare.

So with all that said, I have to confess, I like the robin egg blue OP to the point where I can see value in it even at 30k. Luckily, I got a call last week that prevented me from having to think about this with any level of seriousness.

The OP has nothing to do with Tiffany and there’s a made up correlation with an auction piece that does have a real partnership to drive profits. Plus, it’s not even the true Tiffany brand color. I can’t disagree with your third bullet point enough…. stamped Tiffany Rolex dials have been commanding premiums for decades. You can’t just dismiss the stamp and collaboration or the prior posters gold/brass analogy comes into play. I have no issue with the OP, in fact bought my wife one a couple years ago in a different shade of blue, but to draw any correlation to the 5711 auction makes zero sense to me.