CONFIRMED news regarding the professional line

[bobernet]

They will raise prices at the same time. Moving the product up market. There was more separation from Omega/Breitling before they started increasing pricing on new models.


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[The Libertine]

Originally Posted by TickTockChuck

I think Rolex are masters of marketing and brand protection. Perhaps they see the secondary market (Greys & Quick-Flippers) as a bit out of control with potential to harm the brand and want to pull back on supply to allow a reset. They would likely prefer new sales through ADs in a more contained and consistent manner. My AD indicated that Rolex wanted to slow the grey market and encourage MSRP sales without discounts, the thought being certain ADs would be more likely to retain inventory than risk empty expensive displays which looks bad. I've heard it said that many ADs like to have Rolex as it brings people in and helps sell other more profitable products. Let's face it, Rolex knows what they're doing and proven so time and time again. I personally appreciate the brand protection, but understand the frustration of those entering the market recently. My 2 cents. Cheers!

I agree.

Whatever their strategy, or reasoning, Rolex is handling its business in a manner that it believes is in its best interests. And as a Rolex owner, I too appreciate brand protection.

[jph4387]

So I have run the spectrum of emotions and reactions to this throughout the day. I've been agonizing on whether or not purchase a ceramic sub and here is my take after some level headed thinking. Well not completely level headed, I might have had a whiskey or two. With that said, my prediction is this:

This is news to prepare for shortages due to an update. Rolex will add the 3235 to the GMT's, Explorers, and Subs. With the new movement, they'll get great demand similar to the Daytona. For the next few years, the supply will not keep up with the demand which will be the lower production. Rolex is preparing ADs for this.

In addition my mind is wandering about what to do with the market. My take is look at the 5 digit subs versus ceramic as a guide. If Rolex updates the sports models with new movements, it will also be paired with a sizable price increase. Demand for the new 3235 based sport watches will accompany the new higher price. My gut says the current ceramic subs while in less favor, will still hold in value as an option for those who don't want to pay the new MSRP or secondary prices until the newness wears off. If you're in the market, buy used now and you'll stay flat in value or even gain a little. If you're in the market for new from an AD, I'd say wait after Basel because you risk the downside.

On a side note, I spoke to my AD. He hadn't received a letter, YET, but he has heard about the rumors. When I asked for a discount on a SS sub, he said I appreciate the question, but I've had 10x the requests for one that I have supply and plenty who are willing to pay the price.

[Sprta]

I suspect that the production cutbacks started a while back. Perhaps Rolex has finally decided to formally notify their ADs, even though most already know shortages will continue. It would appear that Rolex wants the hard to get models to go to their very best customers, and not to the occasional buyers. Its pretty much continuing the existing trend.
For what its worth my AD did not receive a letter yet, but they stating what the OP posted.

[Dr.Brian]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Take me with you....

You can rent my beach house if you want.

[dwamps]

I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member.

Rolex is doing a great job so far.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by Dr.Brian

You can rent my beach house if you want.

I have a condo on the beach in La Jolla Brian (puffing out chest and speaking very loudly )



Uhm... how BIG is it you ask?










Smaller then your homes bathroom.

[Dr.Brian]

Originally Posted by jph4387

So I have run the spectrum of emotions and reactions to this throughout the day. I've been agonizing on whether or not purchase a ceramic sub and here is my take after some level headed thinking. Well not completely level headed, I might have had a whiskey or two. With that said, my prediction is this:

This is news to prepare for shortages due to an update. Rolex will add the 3235 to the GMT's, Explorers, and Subs. With the new movement, they'll get great demand similar to the Daytona. For the next few years, the supply will not keep up with the demand which will be the lower production. Rolex is preparing ADs for this.

In addition my mind is wandering about what to do with the market. My take is look at the 5 digit subs versus ceramic as a guide. If Rolex updates the sports models with new movements, it will also be paired with a sizable price increase. Demand for the new 3235 based sport watches will accompany the new higher price. My gut says the current ceramic subs while in less favor, will still hold in value as an option for those who don't want to pay the new MSRP or secondary prices until the newness wears off. If you're in the market, buy used now and you'll stay flat in value or even gain a little. If you're in the market for new from an AD, I'd say wait after Basel because you risk the downside.

On a side note, I spoke to my AD. He hadn't received a letter, YET, but he has heard about the rumors. When I asked for a discount on a SS sub, he said I appreciate the question, but I've had 10x the requests for one that I have supply and plenty who are willing to pay the price.

I wouldn’t buy anything right before Basel. You never know what they’re going to do, and you might have to take a bit of a loss on a flip for the latest and greatest that you like even more. Of course there’s always a new latest and greatest on the way. That’s why I always resist flipping my Sea Dweller. It gets the job done, looks pretty good, and is a bit different from the more common Subs I see all the time. If they came out with an 8 day movement, and shoehorned it into a similarly sized case, that would get my attention. I have a bunch of watches and I like the idea of being able to skip a week and still be in business when I strap it on. YMMV.

[Alexwwjd]

A couple more in the collection and I am done.... or not.


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[Thatguy]

Originally Posted by Alexwwjd

A couple more in the collection and I am done.... or not.


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That is what I tell my wife. Not sure she believes me though.......


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[douglasf13]

Originally Posted by bobernet

They will raise prices at the same time. Moving the product up market. There was more separation from Omega/Breitling before they started increasing pricing on new models.


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Not really. Rolex started dramatically raising their costs in the middle of last decade, and then Omega followed suit about five years later. In the first half of last decade, the difference in cost between an Aqua Terra/DJ or Planet Ocean/SubDate was about where it is now, percentage-wise, so Omega really just caught back up.

I think most of us just didn't realize this because we weren't all talking about it as much on the internet in 2004.

[oldman2005]

Originally Posted by WhiskyVerb

I call complete and total bullshit on this. This is a troll of a post and there seems to be quite a few suckers on there that believe you. What a waste of time on this forum - which I would prefer to spend my time to learn and share. Not this stupid nonsense.

You can kiss my

I wouldn't get to stress out reading too much posts here, go outside and play...If Rolex discontinues the whole Sport watches tomorrow I wouldn't careless. This pic taken today looking toward San Francisco from the East Bay, there's much more into life then just Rolex as material does not really bring happiness

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by WhiskeyKoffee

I wish you would quit beating around the bush with this subtle approach of yours, and instead tell us how you really feel.

I thought he was you and I was like wow can’t believe the guy with the wiener dog was such a d@#$

Originally Posted by ROLEX MAN

I'm waiting for the next recession, and then the market will be flooded!!

Originally Posted by Dr.Brian

Exactly.
Last time around I picked up a house, a Rolex and a Mercedes. Then doubled down and rode the wave to where we are today.
Next time it will be a beach house and a DD.

Yessir gents! Resisting all temptation to overpay, buying Rolex at my AD only and eyeing 5 digits as well. If Rolex updates the sub the 5 digit subs are posed for a good year me thinks

[Magwitch]

I agree that the new movement will increase demand (if offered) but remember that there are millions of 3135's running quite well and millions of beer can clasps that have functioned well for many years. I don't think the older movement pieces will be devalued but I DO see the increase in demand. I wonder what the supply will be. I will be at the AD on Monday and pick their brains. They are always straight with me.

[Wcdhtwn]

Originally Posted by WhiskyVerb

I call complete and total bullshit on this. This is a troll of a post and there seems to be quite a few suckers on there that believe you. What a waste of time on this forum - which I would prefer to spend my time to learn and share. Not this stupid nonsense.



You can kiss my

Gerardo is probably the most trusted person on this board. All of the GTG’s happen because of him and not only do we like him here, I personally know high level people in the watch sales world and the press who regard him highly. He would not post this information if he didn’t believe it to be 100% credible.


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[doboy007]

Originally Posted by oldman2005

I wouldn't get to stress out reading too much posts here, go outside and play...If Rolex discontinues the whole Sport watches tomorrow I wouldn't careless. This pic taken today looking toward San Francisco from the East Bay, there's much more into life then just Rolex as material does not really bring happiness

If you truly believe that you should sell all your watches you mentioned earlier in this thread

[Dr.Brian]

I think the conspiracy is that they stopped making the old movements, were running out of watches early due to record demand, and then had to contract the allocations stretch the supply. All the while they built supply of the newly upgraded ones to release shortly after Basel. That’s my prediction. And it actually makes sense.
That would explain why they decreased production this year and why previously available models were suddenly more rare. And they could simultaneously decide to cut production, contract their distribution and raise prices. Why do so many BNIB Rolexes end up on the grey market? Clearly they’re not selling the way the home office wants them to be sold.

[77T]

Originally Posted by oldman2005

I wouldn't get to stress out reading too much posts here, go outside and play...If Rolex discontinues the whole Sport watches tomorrow I wouldn't careless. This pic taken today looking toward San Francisco from the East Bay, there's much more into life then just Rolex as material does not really bring happiness

He can’t hear you - now has been banned.



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[tbonesteak]

Basel 18 IMO... They’re in the business of increasing their market share and selling watches, not vice versa.

With the amazing year in 2017 for Rolex, why not increase prices and make a splash while the iron is hot? Last thing any company wants to do when firing on all cylinders is decrease sales, so I’d think this is very temporary.

[Ticknaway]

The more I think about this it seems to be a very risky proposition for Rolex. I wonder if the are thinking now that they couldn’t have made this decision at the worst time with the new JLC sports line being released as well as the new entry level VC appearing at SIHH. Unfortunately for Rolex these watches are every bit the caliber of a Rolex sports model. I guess only time will tell especially it their boutiques start to scream about lost sales.

[dera]

Originally Posted by tbonesteak

Basel 18 IMO... They’re in the business of increasing their market share and selling watches, not vice versa.

With the amazing year in 2017 for Rolex, why not increase prices and make a splash while the iron is hot? Last thing any company wants to do when firing on all cylinders is decrease sales, so I’d think this is very temporary.

Yes, so selling more Datejusts makes Rolex more money.
Remember - Rolex makes money based on the MSRP of the watch, they make roughly the same amount of money from a DJ41 fluted than from a Sub. The fact that ADs prefer not to discount SS Professionals has no effect on profit margins for Rolex.
Most sold Rolex lineup is the Datejust.

So increase market share and sell more watches = make less Professional models, and more Datejusts.

[tbonesteak]

Originally Posted by dera

So increase market share and sell more watches = make less Professional models, and more Datejusts.

To me, this would be a very bold assumption on their part, borderline reckless.

[WS9D]

Originally Posted by Dr.Brian

Exactly.
Last time around I picked up a house, a Rolex and a Mercedes. Then doubled down and rode the wave to where we are today.
Next time it will be a beach house and a DD.

As did I minus the mercedes...bought 3 watches instead lol. Markets are good now and trying to dump one of my houses to for when next low tide hit.

As a WIS, I am interested in how this will play out, whether it's if Rolex is trying to move up in the chain, or we will have new movements in the line-up.

I love Rolex, but currently, priced more than I want to pay. I've really been growing quite fond of Tudor, and this may be part of the Rolex marketing plan.

Better buy you Tudors now before the prices really go up on them...

[DoctorA]

Originally Posted by jph4387

So I have run the spectrum of emotions and reactions to this throughout the day. I've been agonizing on whether or not purchase a ceramic sub and here is my take after some level headed thinking. Well not completely level headed, I might have had a whiskey or two. With that said, my prediction is this:

This is news to prepare for shortages due to an update. Rolex will add the 3235 to the GMT's, Explorers, and Subs. With the new movement, they'll get great demand similar to the Daytona. For the next few years, the supply will not keep up with the demand which will be the lower production. Rolex is preparing ADs for this.

In addition my mind is wandering about what to do with the market. My take is look at the 5 digit subs versus ceramic as a guide. If Rolex updates the sports models with new movements, it will also be paired with a sizable price increase. Demand for the new 3235 based sport watches will accompany the new higher price. My gut says the current ceramic subs while in less favor, will still hold in value as an option for those who don't want to pay the new MSRP or secondary prices until the newness wears off. If you're in the market, buy used now and you'll stay flat in value or even gain a little. If you're in the market for new from an AD, I'd say wait after Basel because you risk the downside.

On a side note, I spoke to my AD. He hadn't received a letter, YET, but he has heard about the rumors. When I asked for a discount on a SS sub, he said I appreciate the question, but I've had 10x the requests for one that I have supply and plenty who are willing to pay the price.

Reasonable speculations but let’s take it one by one:
Daytona just came out less than two years ago so no chance getting new movement or upgrade so price increase will just be price increase!!

Skydweller, similar to Daytona. Even more since it was just released last year. Can only get price increase and no upgrade

Special pieces such as green sub and BLNR are less likely to get new movements to be discontinued a couple of years later so either will get price increase (as is without any upgrades to the movement) or get discontinued

Sea dweller 43, is an anniversary model (like the Kermit) where it’s not meant to be upgraded. So again either price increase or discontinued

DeepSea (James Cameron) similar to the above, either price increase or discontinue given that it’s a “special occasion” watch

DJ41 just got a new movement and can only be price increase

YM II relatively new But might get movement upgrade!


So now you’re left with the subC LN, YM, GMT LN and the rest of the DJ line and those I agree, I expect movement upgrade

My $0.02

[dera]

Originally Posted by tbonesteak

To me, this would be a very bold assumption on their part, borderline reckless.

That's how it works. Rolex sells probably ten times the amount of Datejusts as they do Professionals (at least on the ADs I know, the ratio of DJ vs Professional deliveries is around 10-to-1).
I'd imagine a Sub with the ceramic bezel costs more to produce than a fluted DJ41 (there isn't much gold in the bezel in weight). Yet a Sub date retails for $8550, and a fluted DJ41 $9350. DJ41 makes Rolex more profit, than a Sub date.

The ADs probably aren't too happy about it, ADs make slightly higher profit on the Professional models due to not having to give any discounts on them, but with the brand as strong as Rolex, they can't really complain much.
People on these forums forget that probably 99% of Rolex watches are bought by people who just want to buy a classic nice watch and that's it.

[doboy007]

Originally Posted by DoctorA

Special pieces such as green sub and BLNR are less likely to get new movements to be discontinued a couple of years later so either will get price increase (as is without any upgrades to the movement) or get discontinued

I’ll take either scenarios since I already own both :)

[tbonesteak]

Originally Posted by dera

That's how it works. Rolex sells probably ten times the amount of Datejusts as they do Professionals (at least on the ADs I know, the ratio of DJ vs Professional deliveries is around 10-to-1).
I'd imagine a Sub with the ceramic bezel costs more to produce than a fluted DJ41 (there isn't much gold in the bezel in weight). Yet a Sub date retails for $8550, and a fluted DJ41 $9350. DJ41 makes Rolex more profit, than a Sub date.

The ADs probably aren't too happy about it, ADs make slightly higher profit on the Professional models due to not having to give any discounts on them, but with the brand as strong as Rolex, they can't really complain much.
People on these forums forget that probably 99% of Rolex watches are bought by people who just want to buy a classic nice watch and that's it.

I’d have to question those ratios (10-1), especially over the last few years... Maybe it’s different elsewhere, but where I live, I can basically throw something out my window and hit someone wearing a Sub.

[dera]

Originally Posted by tbonesteak

I’d have to question those ratios (10-1), especially over the last few years... Maybe it’s different elsewhere, but where I live, I can basically throw something out my window and hit someone wearing a Sub.

Well, as the msrp prices show, it's in Rolex's own interest to increase that ratio

Go to a local Tourneau and count the number of Professional models compared to Datejusts on display - I bet it's more than 10-1.

To get rid of this discrepancy, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 15-20% price hike in some SS Professional models...

[DoctorA]

Originally Posted by doboy007

I’ll take either scenarios since I already own both :)

I’m with you since I got mine too!

[tbonesteak]

Originally Posted by dera

Well, as the msrp prices show, it's in Rolex's own interest to increase that ratio

Go to a local Tourneau and count the number of Professional models compared to Datejusts on display - I bet it's more than 10-1.

Well yea, bc one is always selling out and the other is left behind. Just my opinion, but we’re all obviously speculating without any hard numbers.