Perspective on future resale price & choices in life

[Dan2010]

Originally Posted by Welshwatchman

I can't wait to see your "should I get married?" thread.

The answer is still c...............................or is False........I'm confused now......

[Grissom]

Very entertaining reading here!

With the OP trying to "manage the risk" associated with spending money on any large capital purchase, I suppose purchasing anything that would seem to hold it's "desirability", maintain a low production with respect to demand, continue to increase it's retail pricing, AND that has a viable and active secondary market would best "manage the risk". Which currently produced, recently discontinued, or vintage piece to buy is where we might want to defer to Vincent's (Rolexwatcher) algorithm!

While certainly an interesting question, almost impossible to predict, given the uncertain nature of future demand/interest, economic stability or instability, and the like.

Of interest is that in the past, many of the most collectible items have turned out to be the crappiest, and/or least desirable, and/or true errors, and/or special order/unique, and/or most expensive for their time, thus resulting in very little being sold and/or still in reasonable working order, and finally, usually having been made and purchased WITHOUT the slightest thought of future collectibility at the time of purchase.....thus somewhat counterintuitive when looking at buying for future value today. In the past, purchases seem to have been made based upon usability and appropriateness for the task at hand.

[Tools]

I don't remember the question ...

But I will say that it would be odd for me to buy one of the watches mentioned based on what I thought the market might be in the near future..

The chances are that everybody else would think the same thing and so, it would turn out the reverse.. !!

But let me make a guess on these 4 and their future...

. TT DJ II - No real market for it today, no real market for it in the future.. Nice dress watch and will have it's niche buyers.


. Milgauss GV - It's the one that everybody is getting and speculating about being the next "Newman". Because of that, I say that the white Milgauss will be the real future performer. The Black is likely to do well in 20 years too.


. Explorer 39mm - Classic heritage, likely to carry on that line and be a respectable performer and very liquid. Still, not likely to out-perform any other Rolex model.


. Sub-C LN - It's a Sub.. It will lose some value in the short term, then recover it after a decade and remain pretty steady there for the next decade. Since there are lines waiting to get one now, there will be plenty in the marketplace for the next half century..

[Grumpy Badger]

Originally Posted by RolexWatcher

I would buy a Rollie (14060M) and go on a scuba diving holiday

NB: The above was just for fun. On a serious note, don't buy a Rolex to save your ass. Buy it after you got your house in order (i.e. the more important things in life).

Glad I did the right thing!

[bewithabob]

i was going to say something about cookies, but I dont want this thread to get locked down....

I have never used the resale expectations as the criteria for a watch choice.

By example, could any of us have predicted the financial collapse and the worldwide increase in the price of precious metals?

One might do better by buying only the rarest and most collectible watches...or perhaps investing in gold. If you had the wisdom to put a few thousand in Apple or Microsoft years ago, you would have enough left over to buy several Rolexs...

A soothsayer...or perhaps a whirling dervish would be able to give you the most accurate predictions of resale values.... 10 years from now...

[esm]

Originally Posted by Welshwatchman

I can't wait to see your "should I get married?" thread.

including the possibility of selling/trading in 2, 5 or 10 years time on the used market.

may want to consider the upgrading option also

[Dan2010]

Originally Posted by esm

including the possibility of selling/trading in 2, 5 or 10 years time on the used market.

may want to consider the upgrading option also

No that is an easy one. It's cheaper to keep her!

[HL65]

Can't believe it only took a month for this post to resurface in a slightly different form though. All new cars and new Rolexes make great investments but typically only when you pay retail. They both in fact likely to appreciate at roughly 10% per year. They both are also great retirement vehicles- no pun intended. I have years of data and statistics to back this up.

[dddrees]

I bought my watches (luxury items) for purely enjoyment purposes.

[horseco]

TT DJ II
2 year - 68.475%
5 year - 59.730%
10 year - 65.834%

Milgauss GV
2 year - 71.395%
5 year - 65.813%
10 year - 50.282%

Explorer 39mm
2 year - 93.169%
5 year - 87.671%
10 year - 87.183%

Sub-C LN
2 year - 73.193%
5 year - 93.945%
10 year - 60.281%

awesome answer!!!!

[Explorer 2011]

vincent. thanks for making my explorer the best at holding value! I will make sure i refer to this thread in future. lol

[Roja]

Even if you could determine the ballpark figure on which would keep it's price the highest, and even if you could store it for safekeeping, the one factor you cannot determine (which is the most important factor) is the necessity/speed with which you will want to sell it.

Most of the wonderful things I once owned, that I decided to sell, I sold at a lower price than perhaps they were worth. It's a question of supply and demand and impulse.

[Danand]

The car versus watch question often fails to take into account need. If you NEED a car ( for work for instance) then the depreciation is acceptable, within reason. The OP mentioning $25k puts the car in an average category, not luxury. It may not be worth spending much less depending on factors such as reliability, warranty, usefulness, etc.
If you NEED a watch a $20 walmart special will perform well for reading time.
Both a watch and a car will lose value over the short-medium term. The watch likely less so in the case of a rolex. But as I mentioned there are many other factors involved.
I am of the opinion in the case of both watches and cars that you should (for prudence ) consider both to be money 100% gone upon taking delivery. Whatever you get later as resale is a bonus and should not be counted on.
Being self employed I have no one to rely on for my retirement but myself, and this prudence is part of my generally conservative financial outlook.
Just my .02.

[Danand]

Another factor is how a watch is sold. If you sell privately you may get close to the average of the resale values, but if you sell to a dealer you will take a much bigger hit since that dealer will have to factor in their cut and still resell the watch at the appropriate price. (same goes with cars). Another reason to consider the value later to be low if anything.

[mtrunner]

E) all of the above are true. That is my answer and I am sticking to it. Wait or is it D) which states A) and C) are true? Now I am completely confused.

[rolexsweep]

Originally Posted by Sub Man

Errrr.... Can I phone a friend???

hahhahahahahahahahahahh exactly what i was thinking

[paddy_crow]

1) There is no single answer that applies in all cases, but generally speaking, depreciation/appreciation is almost never a straight line. A second or third order equation is normally the best fit.

2) I never try to justify the purchase of a luxury item. If I want it and can afford it, I buy it. When I want two luxury items and can only afford one, I base the decision on which I want more.

[pfrench4]

Originally Posted by rolexertion

Of this you may be sure: Rolexes will show their maximum value when you want to buy one, and then show their minimum resale value when you are forced by circumstances to sell one. Or more.

Isn't that always the case...

[bokmeipai]

If you are worried about finances or a possibility of unforseen circumstances than the only option you have would be to keep your money in an interest earning account. Whether you buy a Rolex or a car even if you were to sell it back the same day you acquired them you would take a big hit. Buying a luxury item is for personal satisfaction not for an investment. As for your example, which is more of a necessity : a car or a watch? Do what makes you happy, life is short. You can always make more money but you can't make more time.

Originally Posted by watchf

You folks are mistaken. Please do not jump on the watches are for wearing not for investing theme the minute you see the word 'resale value'. What I am asking is directed to assess if one needs to sell in the future due to unforeseen circumstances that you will never have expected to happen to you, would the watches save you even though you bought the watches out of admiration rather than as a form of investment. Buying watches as an investment to me is not a wise choice as there are many other true investment options that are profitable.

[TKB]

cash in a safe, rolex, car, in that order. any further info would need to be put in day trading format.

[gregmoeck]

25K car = bad idea unless you really need a car.
25K in watches for future growth = bad idea
25K in bank = a slow way to make a couple hundred bucks a year
25K is best just tucked away for 20 years down the road. tuck it away and forget about it, maybe get all cash and put it in a saftey deposit box.

[MrCowboy99]

read my sign line.. good luck!

[lhanddds]

I can't really answer the first question. I don't feel there are very many "new cars" in the $25,000 range that will be a good investment. First of all, new cars, in general, depreciate so much when they are driven off the lot. A 1 year old model is automatically a better investment. Second, in that price range, you don't have many autos which will hold their value, predictably IMHO. I think collecting vintage watches are a good investment as far as retaining their value. I would not classify them as an investment medium and I don't call mine an investment. I know I'm not going to lose much money. New models are a crap shoot. Buy one you like.

[barters]

Dude, if you want to invest your money there are some great opportunities in Northern Africa right now. If you want to buy a watch that you can pull your cash out of at a later date I would recommend a used Sub or Daytona (stainless).

I can't think of any good car investments out there--unless you are talking about buying a Ferrari Enzo or something like that.

[lhanddds]

Originally Posted by conrail

Uhhh, unless its a classic car that will hold its value, ANY modern car (with the exception of some exotic limited edition one) should never be looked at as a "good investment." Its going to lose its value and never regain it.

A modern Rolex will slowly depreciate but then it might appreciate back up to your purchase price far in the future. So not really a good "investment" here either, and Rolex is one of the few brands that hold their value the best.

Nice, original vintage Rolex are appreciating. This is your best "investment" area of Rolex watches.

Agree 100%

[Al1988]

From my limited experience I would say that it is safe to assume that most TT watches bought at MSRP lose more value than SS be it 2, 5 or 10 years down the line.

Again, historically I would say that the SS Sub will hold its value much better than other models due its popularity.

As for your second question, if buying both at full retail price i'd say that an SS Rolex will retain its value more. Cars tend to be upgraded more frequently than Rolex's, with new body designs etc coming out for cars every few years.

Thats my opinion anyway, what it's worth I don't know