I'm curious what you guys think if they discontinue the SUB-C

[inv1siblehand]

Originally Posted by sillo38

This is Rolex we're talking about though. Somebody will start calling them by some nickname like fatboy or something and it'll end up with a cult following and continue to rise like every other sport watch.

So true!

I think you may have inadvertantly become that somebody

[franklee168]

I own and wear it because it's my style. Don't care if it goes up or down in pricing because I'm not selling. There are better investments to put money into besides watches.

[kieselguhr]

That was fun. Reminds me of research questionnaires in school. Thanks for the fun exercise OP

1. Let's say Basel 2020 comes and Rolex releases a new 40mm Sub with a new movement, slightly slimmer lugs and discontinue the current model

Prices will remain similar because everyone and their mother has the discontinued model with the wider lugs and last of the classic movement...


2. Rolex releases a new Sub but just an updated movement and leaves the lugs alone, will

Prices will remain similar because “ohh hey another submariner with an outdated movement that's been with us forever”


3. Rolex releases a 42mm Sub with slimmer lugs and new movement, will

A. They will discontinue the 40mm and prices will spike for a little bit as people try to hype the “rarity” of the 40mm submariner then it dies down really fast . At which point prices remain similar.


4. Rolex releases a 36mm submariner on April 1st as a joke.

[akilis]

Originally Posted by Glosstritium

This is a fun question to see what people on here think...


1. Let's say Basel 2020 comes and Rolex releases a new 40mm Sub with a new movement, slightly slimmer lugs and discontinue the current model, will

A. Prices will shoot through the roof cause everybody wants a discontinued model and it will become a rarity with the only sub with the wider lugs and last of the classic movement...

Or

B. Prices will drop?


2. Rolex releases a new Sub but just an updated movement and leaves the lugs alone, will

A. Prices will go up since its the last classic movement that's been with us forever

Or

B. Prices will drop?


3. Rolex releases a 42mm Sub with slimmer lugs and new movement, will

A. They will discontinue the 40mm
B. They will keep the 40mm also
C. Hell yea I can't wait for the new 42mm

4. Rolex releases a 36mm submariner together with the 42mm, will

A. Discontinue the 40mm
B. Keep all three in the sub line
C. No way they will release a 36mm

they will be just update the movement everything stay the same. Price of the newer one will be at lease 5k more than the old one...and then the old one value stay the same...that's my prediction

[Token74]

My view for what it is or isn’t worth...

If they just update the movement, I can’t see it having any impact on anything in the short term. Nobody is holding off buying a submariner because of the movement, so don’t see why demand would increase.

Equally, demand will continue to exceed supply so residuals of the current submariner will be unaffected. I would imagine that greys will charge a premium for the new over the old but few will pay it, it will just ensure they sell through the obsolete model.

I note the use of the word ‘rare’ in the original post, this is a word that sends Padi and others into a spin at the best of times but never more so than when talking about a modern day submariner I suspect!

In time, there will likely be a premium on the newer movement, but it will be insignificant.

If they change the size, that would have a much more significant impact, but they won’t! They could introduce a bigger submariner as an alternative to the 40mm, but given they added a date magnifier to the 43mm Sea Dweller, it would be a strange move, and Rolex aren’t known for strange moves. So, nothing to see here.

They could, and in my view should, update the case and lug shape a little. They don’t need to so they likely won’t, but the best companies update their products before the market asks them to do so, so they may. Unless it is ground-breaking, which it won’t be, I can’t see it having a significant impact on the market in the short term because of the waiting lists. What will happen though is that everyone on here will love it for a week, then find out that they can’t get one, and then everyone will say they don’t like it!

My suspicion is that they will update the movement and introduce a TT in a different colour scheme. They make incredible margins on TT and right now they can capitalise on the TT revival and the lack of supply of steel models which will drive some to buy TT who wouldn’t otherwise.

All guesswork and speculation.


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[inv1siblehand]

In short - no matter what they do all Submariners will increase in value. A rising tide lifts all boats.

My prediction for Basel 2020 is a PM or TT sub with a very slight alteration to the lugs and an upgraded movement.

I don't think there will be a massive change to the maxi case simply because the larger lume plots enhance legibility and might look too big on the dial if they slim down the lugs too much.

[mountainjogger]

IMOP, none of these scenarios will not matter because no one would be able to find one at MSRP from a dealer for many years. Unless supply increases, the effect on the current model (then superseded) will be negligible at best.

[Chester01]

I don’t think so. They will eventually put a new movement in and the slimming of the lugs will also happen, but slowly. An abrupt change in the lugs make it look like Rolex made a mistake in making them so large in the first place. The sub has as most Rolex models an exercise in slow evolution over time. So no discontinuation, just evolution.

[playford]

New movement will I'd say go for a bit more on grey market.

42mm won't happen, that's what the SD43 is for.

who knows about case changes?

[GoingPlaces]

1. Values unaffected, everyone has a Sub.
2. Values unaffected, Rolex consistently improves movement and values remain unaffected. Zenith Daytona is the exception.

Sub will remain 40, as other poster stated perhaps a Tudor but not Rolex.

[007_Omega]

All I know is that the next Sub is going to be aesthetically and technically superior to this generation.

I'm really curious to see whether Rolex will simply add the new movement, crown between swiss made, and slightly trim down the lugs or will they be bold and do something more?

If the SD43 didn't exist, then I could get behind the idea of Rolex possibly increasing the size.

On the subject of the fat lugs, if Rolex truly slims down the lugs this generation will still have its fans. There are plenty of people who like the fat lugs because they like bigger and bolder things. Not everyone appreciates classic proportions.

[ronricks]

How can a mass produced watch with a 10 year production run be “rare”? That defies all logic.

[Jabbo84]

Well, since you asked. They will probably ruin it by making it bigger than 40 mm. Sometimes I think Rolex thinks the only ones interested are ballers and rappers

[Beto737]

I want the old case, with new movement, and a little more detail to the dial. Perhaps a slight waffle pattern. If any changes happen, I suspect the current Hulk will continue to be desirable.

[Bigblu10]

Lug size seems to just be a watch forum obsession, hardly a real world issue.
Size will stay 40mm. You want bigger? You have the SD43 and DSSD
Only logical change I see is the new movement, but not even that is guaranteed this time around. These speculation threads happen year after year with relatively few changes.
Rolex has no problems selling every Submariner that comes out of the factory. Why would they go back to the design board to completely redo it? To satisfy all the keyboard quarterbacks on these watch forums? Yeah, sure.

[DoctorA]

I’m not a marketing expert but it would make no sense what so ever to mess with the most iconic product you have!
They might update movement, change bezel material from aluminum to ceramic, make special colors, change the font or writing style........etc. but to change the case size or mess dramatically with its aesthetics, I highly highly doubt it!!

[glamorama]

This speculation that Rolex will release a 42mm Sub i don’t understand at all as there is a “sea dweller” looking like a sub at 43mm. Why would they release a 42mm sub and leave the 40mm space they’ve been in forever open. To me it’s a 0.01% chance with a 42mm sub.

[Sandpit]

Won’t change and will only be a movement update. The GMT case didn’t change. No reason to think the sub will.

[polaris72]

Nothing will happen. New Sub’s wait list will be miles long, so everyone will hold on onto their old Subs.

[brandrea]

It only makes sense that the Submariner line will get the 32xx movement at some point. My guess is that other changes to the case, bezel dial etc would be mostly minimal ala GMT.

Submariners will always be in demand so 8 don’t think prices of previous generations will change. If anything they tend to tread higher as they arent being made anymore

[tie219]

Originally Posted by brandrea

It only makes sense that the Submariner line will get the 32xx movement at some point. My guess is that other changes to the case, bezel dial etc would be mostly minimal ala GMT.

Submariners will always be in demand so 8 don’t think prices of previous generations will change. If anything they tend to tread higher as they arent being made anymore

This is correct

[mailman]

I don't care because I'm not buying either one I dint care about a new movement with a longer power reserve or what the rotor is. I get they want to move forward and it makes sense. The 3135 works just fine for me

[Kestrel]

My opinion: Certain to get the new movement. The 3135 will sunset at some point. Too expensive to maintain two separate lines making them, and they must be good at making the new one after five years. Plus the other major Pro lines already switched (ym, gmt, SD, DS). Almost certainly slightly thinner lugs. The watches of the last few years are correcting from the large lugs of last decade. See the gmt, DS, DD40. But only slight change. There already is a 43 mm sub (well, SD43) so little chance they go to 42mm.

Question is do they release all metals at once or do what they did last time and release gold and TT first, then SS sub date then SS sub. Do they do a Pt version and set the world on fire.

Prices on the old models will go up or stay the same (provided no overall market downturn). Prices for new models will be sky high on the secondary market, again, unless there is an overall slowdown. Only the TT skyD and ym 2 sell for a discount against msrp these days I believe, amongst non full pm pieces. Even the black dial deep sea sells for a 5% premium or so. Just four years ago it sold new for 20% off.

[Onikage]

Originally Posted by Kestrel

The watches of the last few years are correcting from the large lugs of last decade. See the gmt.

The GMT hasn't changed at all. I wish it had.

[Cesium137]

What was section 2 sub section B again?

[toolr]

Other than a possible movement change, probably unannounced, I don't see the Sub changing at all.