submariner prices coming down in grey market

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by PatRols

What is your reference mate? General statements are dangerous. There is a car and there is a Ferrari, there is a handbag and there is a Birkin Hermès, there is a sofa and there is a Paulin. The best of luxury items that suffer shortage of supply have always been sought for.

...just like there is a watch and there is a Rolex (or a Patek).



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My reference is twofold...

1) Panerai-15 years ago they were white hot! Empty cases as AD, selling over MSRP, vintage stuff was increasing every time there was an auction. Fast forward to 10 years and people had enough. Values dropped like a led balloon, and many of the collectors who had their retirement savings in Panerai moved in to Rolex.

2) Rolex- for people new to the game, many do not realize this is new. Several years ago it wasn’t like this. Cases at every AD were filled and DISCOUNTS on new watches from an AD of about 15% was standard.

When you study these two facts alongside a general understanding of luxury market trends and hype, to think this will last forever is foolhardy.
To be clear I am a huge Rolex fan as well as Panerai. I buy watches to enjoy...stocks and real estate are for investing. I am looking forward to a market correction for Rolex so that I can reasonably buy more watches that I want, just as has happened with Panerai.

[Fire bloke]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

My reference is twofold...

1) read above

2) read above
just as has happened with Panerai.

Well said ,,sounds good to me

[PatRols]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

My reference is twofold...

1) Panerai-15 years ago they were white hot! Empty cases as AD, selling over MSRP, vintage stuff was increasing every time there was an auction. Fast forward to 10 years and people had enough. Values dropped like a led balloon, and many of the collectors who had their retirement savings in Panerai moved in to Rolex.

2) Rolex- for people new to the game, many do not realize this is new. Several years ago it wasn’t like this. Cases at every AD were filled and DISCOUNTS on new watches from an AD of about 15% was standard.

When you study these two facts alongside a general understanding of luxury market trends and hype, to think this will last forever is foolhardy.
To be clear I am a huge Rolex fan as well as Panerai. I buy watches to enjoy...stocks and real estate are for investing. I am looking forward to a market correction for Rolex so that I can reasonably buy more watches that I want, just as has happened with Panerai.

Haha! A lot of whishful thinking around here.

Reminds me 8 years ago when I declined buying a Paul Newman at €40k !

Now you need to define « forever ». 10 or 15 years from now who knows. But right now I am quite confident that these market conditions are there to last and Rolex will do all they can to keep it up. They adopted the exact same marketing/sales strategy as Ferrari and Hermès.

Wake up guys.



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[locutus49]

You are British. How do I know? Because you said tonne and not ton.

Originally Posted by peterpl

Dont get caught up in the hype man. Every sensible person knows these things are just watches and there is no way a luxury tangible item such as watches will continue to increase in value forever without a pullback and normalisation.

Instagram and social media was the number 1 factor in all this hype. Once social media dies down for watches which is already happening there is going to be tonnes of ppl holding the bag on these pieces.

[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by locutus49

You are British. How do I know? Because you said tonne and not ton.

THAT. And the "normalisation."

[3sheets86]

So I take it this all refers to current models and not any of the discontinued?

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by locutus49

You are British. How do I know? Because you said tonne and not ton.

Close - Aussie.

We are British in a sense

[ratty]

Originally Posted by locutus49

You are British. How do I know? Because you said tonne and not ton.

??????

Ton is an imperial measurement (2240 lbs) and is often used in the UK.

Tonne is a metric measurement (1000kgs or 2200 lbs) and the only time I have heard it used in the UK is in relation the vehicle weights which are usually stamped in metric units.

Or am I just showing my age?

[bezler]

It is normal for manufactured objects to be worth less than msrp, with used objects being worth even less. Of course things will normalize.

Originally Posted by sond86

Crap! As I just bought a sub and blnr


I just hope they don’t fall below msrp + 9% tax I paid
Maybe they will drop below?

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[vicsdca]

If availability in ADs keeps getting worse while grey prices start coming down, that should tell you something...

[scurfa]

Originally Posted by vicsdca

If availability in ADs keeps getting worse while grey prices start coming down, that should tell you something...

Yes that the real fans and wearers are sick of playing this waiting game, I’m one of them, if you treat your real customers like this they eventually walk away leaving only speculators in the market place, squeezing supply could in time backfire especially at a company like Patek, Rolex I’m sure would bounce back.

[Laszlo]

The horror. The horror...

[bonovox]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

The horror. The horror...

+1

[Heathen23]

Many of these references have past their warranty period and in some cases there were few warranty expired references in circulation. That is now impacting hulks in particular as they gained there momentum well after original release.

[DoctorA]

Market it ticking up again and with it I expect prices will go up

[Ghost410]

God i can only hope all stainless models return to MSRP eventually. Drop market, drop!

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by Ghost410

God i can only hope all stainless models return to MSRP eventually. Drop market, drop!

You wish

[Laszlo]

Well, the sad part is that if you’re dumb enough to pay 50-to-100% above Rolex MSRP, and if you actually want to trade it in, you’re only getting MSRP for it give or take the model (Daytona.) And if you try and sell it on your own without a solid reputation like DavidSW, you’re going to be sitting on it for months and months and months. In its current state the only people benefiting are larger resellers. It’s like real estate, it’s a business to benefit the banks and the real estate industry. It’s not there for you (joe consumer) and it’s rigged. Except for the few that know the system.

[akilis]

Originally Posted by Lucifer

is it due to rumors on new sub or updated movement?

got these prices

TT bluesy - 12k to 13k max.
date SS - 10k max
no date SS -9k
HULK - 13 to 15k

not just the sub, overall down a bit

[The1019]

They are all falling no one is feeding the greed any longer only the traders are left holding the watches no one wants to pay the over hyped prices and not should they either
Prices are falling and people are waking up the not feeding the greedy so that they can buy a watch at decent price
Rolex set a price if you think it’s worth more than Rolex charge it’s not a wise move for mass produced watches

[904VT]

The Chinese/HK watch market is about to burst if the bubble hasn’t already. US is now the number 1 Swiss watch market. Rolex and others better wisen up or they will get hit too. They’ve been sending too many LVs and other allocation watches to those Asian markets (and allowing too many out of country purchases elsewhere) to remain truly diversified in revenue. With that correction we’ll easily see 2015 pricing again, which is why watches are not meant to be investments.

[exador]

Originally Posted by 904VT

The Chinese/HK watch market is about to burst if the bubble hasn’t already. US is now the number 1 Swiss watch market.

Not quite. But HK and USA swap the #1 spot approx every 10 years (last time USA was #1 was 2009).

[904VT]

Originally Posted by exador

Not quite. But HK and USA swap the #1 spot approx every 10 years (last time USA was #1 was 2009).

Actually....the US is now (at least month over month) and it’s a major sign of slowing discretionary purchases globally. Of course geopolitical issues are influencing as well skewing slightly. Though China and HK combined are still well above. It may take all of 2020 for it to show caught up on a YOY basis or perhaps it goes back the other way and HK recovers.

[HK852GMT]

Though China and HK combined are still well above. It may take all of 2020 for it to show caught up on a YOY basis or perhaps it goes back the other way and HK recovers.

HK's figures are massively bloated in recent years by mainland money coming over and buying stuff. The current issues in HK have seen tourism from the PRC drop through the floor, as well as a tightening of belts in preparation for whatever comes next.

The watch neighbourhood in Dundas Street is quite quiet at the moment and prices stopped rising on most models about four months ago. The length and depth of any correction here will depend entirely on HK/PRC govt actions in the coming weeks/months.

[tie219]

I got mine at MSRP so no worries here

[MSchu]

Ac3?

[SpeedyTuomas]

Good. Rolex and this craze is so played out imo.

[garyk]

Two thing I learned from my elders, what goes up, must come down and buy low, sell high

[Jabbo84]

....I’m worried about inflation

[MSchu]

Originally Posted by garyk

Two thing I learned from my elders, what goes up, must come down and buy low, sell high

Margins... dollar cost average!

Originally Posted by Jabbo84

....I’m worried about inflation

only in the short term. long term, effects can be mitigated... unless you buy short

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