Is demand real?

[johntictoc]

Don’t forget that people who were on the list may not be in the market anymore

[UK_]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Demand has dropped off, its statistically impossible for what has happened in the world to have not had some impact. It’s math folks. That said, there was never a major demand issue, simply supply pinched off by the literal thousands of gray market sellers. Like I have said many times, if you can have any watch in the Rolex catalog by Monday morning, that’s not excessive demand or that the watch is rare. A Picasso is rare, in that there are only so many. Any gray dealer and their uncle has a Daytona. What’s that tell you?

That the price is a function of supply and demand, and rare is relative.

Compared to the amount of people who want a Hulk, there is no where enough free supply for an a market price of £7k.

Grey dealers are not making the market, they are participating in the market like me and you, the balance of supply (Rolex ADs) and Demand (end buyers who want a Hulk) make the market, and the price.


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[Podmornica]

Not sure about the fall in demand, but I am sure the grey prices ARE NOW HIGHER THAN EVER for almost all ss models!

[Swaye]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

These "cold call" incoming posts are leaving out pertinent details, such as not including the exact reference, not disclosing referrals or other connections to the dealer etc.

It creates the illusion of these references being easy pickings. It's not fair to newer members who don't know better and so they get frustrated when these false expectations can't be met.

This. Travelling all over the world for several years before Covid, and seeing ADs all over the world, the supply is absolutely low and demand high. Watches are not available for most at retail, and this is a worldwide phenomena. Outside of total luck moments nobody in any significant numbers is getting the new Cermit (or Daytona, BLRO, etc.) from an AD without knowing somebody who is a heavy hitter or being a VIP themselves.

I wish people here would better explain their "I lucked out" stories because I believe strongly it gives a complete false impression of where things are at for 99% of the buying public.

[Ranger67]

Got an totally unexpected email from my AD (one previous purchase) to go and view the new range.

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by garyk

I think the demand is real but I hope you’re right to whatever degree you can be. You would think Rolex as a manufacturer might be capable of figuring out how to fix what’s wrong at least by a small percentage?!

I believe it could absolutely be fixed but i don’t know that as a brand, they have a big incentive to fix it. If everyone can get anything they want, outside of say a Daytona, the demand will drop and people will move on. People love what they can’t have. They love talking about their stainless Rolex being hard to get.

This forum is a small subset of watch wearers. I believe Rolex main business is still the guy or gal that saves, buys one watch, and wears it forever. If that person wanted a GMT for example and is on a wait list of 2 years, they might just buy something else, maybe a DJ or an OP. Now you have someone that could come back for the one they really want once their number is called.


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[mykii]

Originally Posted by Swaye

This. Travelling all over the world for several years before Covid, and seeing ADs all over the world, the supply is absolutely low and demand high. Watches are not available for most at retail, and this is a worldwide phenomena. Outside of total luck moments nobody in any significant numbers is getting the new Cermit (or Daytona, BLRO, etc.) from an AD without knowing somebody who is a heavy hitter or being a VIP themselves.

I wish people here would better explain their "I lucked out" stories because I believe strongly it gives a complete false impression of where things are at for 99% of the buying public.

Agree. .

[RobertoCleveland]

I was at my local AD the other day for an adjustment, their half-filled cases only contained classic color Oyster Perpetuals, Datejusts, and one lone rhodium dial Yacht Master.

[holdingon]

Demand is real. One major difference vs 10-20 yrs ago is IWC/Pam/Breitling/Omega(somewhat better) are all in the gutter one way or another. They really have no real competition until until you reach 15k+ USD zip code.

[MILGAUSS88]

I would describe the demand as a mile wide an a inch deep.

By this I mean that demand has created additional demand. The end buyer is not really there for the all the watches available at "market price."
A lot of the current demand is from dealers hoping to sell the watch for a profit.

The antique market was similar in the late 90's.
At that time at least half of my sales were to other dealers. At this time, it accounts for about 10% of my sales.
And market prices are down 50% to 70% for most categories. 90% for some.

If China and Hong Kong have some problems, the whole market could go south pretty quick.

[mountainjogger]

Perception is reality.

Stay safe.

[alphadweller]

I was very lucky this year. I got the new Bluesy the day I called without purchase history from one of the six ADs I called. I was later told by the SA they received a shipment shortly after my call and no one else had yet registered interest since the announcement. I got the very first to land from Geneva. Lucky strike. But then again the Bluesy is not a super hot watch.

I was also able to try a blue OP41 right after checking out the Bluesy. It was their third OP41 after a week since the release. Everyone seems to be wanting an OP this year. That's the new hot watch.

[ZOOK]

Originally Posted by BillA

I have noticed lately many “Incoming” threads from members who said they received a call from an AD and they had never done business with before. No purchase history and picking up what we like to call, hard to get pieces.

Maybe Rolex has finally implemented a system to keep the AD - Authorized Distributors honest! They are forced to sell to a 'buy and wear' guy instead of the watch resellers.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by inadeje

BillA - I think that anyone who believes that the economic turmoil being instigated worldwide by the virus induced shutdowns is living in a fantasy land. The economic distress hasn’t yet got a good foothold, but it will. It may not affect many of the big luxury brands (like Rolex) because they’ve already had manufacturing shutdowns, and could easily just lower production. Its the consumers who will dwindle to a trickle. What we are seeing in the market is the reverse of my synopsis (for now), only because people with cash on hand are loading up on some pieces.

I'm on record as having predicted economic calamity by August, so obviously I was wrong and the US has been far more resilient than I expected. That being said, I find the interconnectivity of a capitalist market fascinating.

It does seem that demand is there, but to other's point, there have been quite a few incomings lately. I find myself wondering, in general, how the jewelry business is going. It feels like the AD's are getting watches in and immediately going down their lists, or customer contacts if they don't maintain a formal list and trying real hard to sell the watches before they hit the cases. Maybe a cash crunch brought on by nothing else selling in their stores has them highly motivated to make payroll and expenses month to month.

I live in an area that never fully locked down and is really pretty back to normal in most ways. Full mask order, but restaurants are open at 60% capacity and theatres at 25% though they don't have much to show. Banks are dragging their feet keeping lobbies closed, but still pretty normal....and yet there are shops and restaurants closing left and right, and some that never made it back. That eventually has to be felt somewhere. I would not want to be the guy selling business casual clothing or renting out commercial space right about now.

Back to Rolex. If in fact, bundling is how greys get much of their stock, I also wonder if that has slowed down because there is very little to bundle with. My AD was down to 10 watches last time I was in, and only the 2 diamond pimped Datejusts and one ladies pearlmaster would be a genuinely hard sale.

[Rob_b]

I remember on this forum, when AD supply was bountiful, the discussion was whether one should pay a little more to purchase off an AD for the Rolex purchase "experience" AD relationship building etc, or just save a few dollars and go grey. How times have changed! And you'd be right in saying that was then, and this is now.
I bought a WG Daytona on bracelet here off one of our trusted sellers here for $16.5K only 3-4 years ago, so for me personally, it's a little hard for me to get caught up in the current hype.
So if it's taken 5 years for the pendulum to swing, how long till it swings back? Will there be an economic jolt to the world that will shock prices back by forcing discrestionary spending? Will Rolex production increase? Or will it be a slow thaw and take another 5 years to swing back to walking into an AD, say your name, and say, I'm here to purchase a..............
Live long enough, and you will notice cycles. Never believe when someone says, but this time, it's different.
But yes, I believe the demand is real. For now.

[Dr.Brian]

I think a lot of the initial demand is fueled by flippers and dreamers who are hoping to score a new model to sell on for a profit or to flip it again to a trusted seller.
Look at the demand for the green dial sub. I didn’t like it at $9, not $14, and certainly not $28. Is it really rare? They used to be in cases a couple years ago. Dreamers and artificial demand.

[Navarino]

Demand is real.

Of all the "hot" models, I would say the most "random" incoming posts I see are with the BLNR. I think that's partly due to the fact that 1) a lot of collectors may already have the preceding reference and 2) there is no doubt that the Pepsi is the "hotter" of the two current SS GMTs when it comes to demand (personal preference is entirely different).

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by UK_

That the price is a function of supply and demand, and rare is relative.

Compared to the amount of people who want a Hulk, there is no where enough free supply for an a market price of £7k.

Grey dealers are not making the market, they are participating in the market like me and you, the balance of supply (Rolex ADs) and Demand (end buyers who want a Hulk) make the market, and the price.


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Lol are you serious. Gray is siphoning off supply. If not for the gray market the AD’s would have hundreds of thousands of SS models available and instead the gray has snapped them up, and unlike the AD can’t overcharge. Listen, I have been in the Rolex game since the 80’s and have always purchased my Rolex at AD’s and can recall walking in and buying what I wanted and seeing 3/4 gmt or subs. As gray market increased the amount of SS watches went down. It’s not rocket science here people


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[excelerater]

The sad thing is most ADs have a pretty large foot print of an area in a shop
thats not producing sales and taking up space

I went to 2 ADs this week and its like a gun shop. EMPTY

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by legacy404

Eventually even the greys have to pay bills. I'm sure they have loans of some form out on their inventory.

Its possible AD's are now allocating more to randoms not on waitlists just walking in to stifle greys. There is a high likelihood that someone who can't buy a piece from an AD that visit will eventually just go online and buy there. And that guy may not ever be a return customer. Going through a waitlist can be a tedious task, when you know the guy that just walked in is ready to buy.

A smart AD would figure out that continuously pawning off your inventory to greys can hurt them in the long run.


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You make good points. However it’s also likely that the massive recession has caused some to hold back and save their beans for what ever comes next.


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

The Rolex market is over when it is. That will be, when it isn't cool to wear one and the big spenders have moved on to new toys. A total production of one million watches in a world of billions of people is really nothing, so good economy or bad, the Rolex market will be brisk and very tight until attitude and style moves elsewhere.

And how many people in that billions can actually afford a Rolex? Now how many remaining actually have a desire to own what many would claim to be a completely outdated, useless tool that a phone gives for free?

I’m as big of a watch nerd as any, but people grossly over estimate how ‘large’ the luxury watch market buying group really is.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Lol are you serious. Gray is siphoning off supply. If not for the gray market the AD’s would have hundreds of thousands of SS models available and instead the gray has snapped them up, and unlike the AD can’t overcharge. Listen, I have been in the Rolex game since the 80’s and have always purchased my Rolex at AD’s and can recall walking in and buying what I wanted and seeing 3/4 gmt or subs. As gray market increased the amount of SS watches went down. It’s not rocket science here people


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Peep eBay user IDs and new business name creations on any medium which allows selling. In the past 2-3 years I’ve seen the amount of ‘watch’ or ‘time’ business names increase probably 10 fold. It’s insane lol. Everybody thinks they’re a professional re-seller right now, and it’s working well, can’t knock it. When tides turn and you’re holding stock depreciating monthly though, they’ll unfortunately go under quickly if not properly hedged.

[TestnDoc]

The demand is off the charts. I got the call yesterday on the stainless blue face Skydweller. I’ve have a relationship with that AD for 15+ years, having bought many Rolexes and lots of jewelry for my wife. So in sum, the demand is real.

[Harry-57]

In 2019 my AD received two SS blue Sky Dwellers, one SS black Sky Dweller, and one SS white Sky Dweller. They declined to put me on the list for a SS black Sky Dweller because there were too many people in front of me. Which was not many. But with six people listed for black, a few more listed for any colour, and roughly one black watch turning up every year, the maths were not hard.

At the end of March I dropped my Z-Blue in for repair. I asked about the possibility of getting listed for a SS BLRO and the SA offered me a BLNR from the safe.

So the answer, as always, is that it all depends on a number of things, all variables.

[JLM3]

It does look the Ad's have been getting more from the incoming threads....

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

In 2019 my AD received two SS blue Sky Dwellers, one SS black Sky Dweller, and one SS white Sky Dweller. They declined to put me on the list for a SS black Sky Dweller because there were too many people in front of me. Which was not many. But with six people listed for black, a few more listed for any colour, and roughly one black watch turning up every year, the maths were not hard.

At the end of March I dropped my Z-Blue in for repair. I asked about the possibility of getting listed for a SS BLRO and the SA offered me a BLNR from the safe.

So the answer, as always, is that it all depends on a number of things, all variables.

To be honest, the SkyD really does seem like it’s produced in fairly small numbers. I’ve never even seen one in the wild on somebody’s wrist in my entire life.

The ‘shortage’ people speak of on GMT and Subs though is absurd.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by JacksonRain

What watches are you trying to get out of curiosity Bill.

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GMT Pepsi

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by BillA

GMT Pepsi

One of the best. prettier than the Daytona...I'm sure you will get it, hopefully sooner than later. I've seen very few posts with Pepsi and cummings with no purchase history... Almost every single one of them had a story behind it from what I recall

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[donas]

Originally Posted by BillA

I have noticed lately many “Incoming” threads from members who said they received a call from an AD and they had never done business with before. No purchase history and picking up what we like to call, hard to get pieces.

So that leads me to believe that demand may not be as great as we think and that these prices on the resale market may not be realistic. (Grey market resellers). Of course the SS Daytona and the likes will be hard to get but other pieces may be attainable.

I understand this is not provable with hard facts, but just the same, noticing this going on.

I don't think anything can be based off of a few "incoming posts". TRF represents a small sample of those who purchase or want to purchase a Rolex. Even if the supply / demand was to be determined from TRF, we'd need to see a post from everyone who has tried to get the same watch. If I was to guess, it would be hundreds or thousands of requests per actual acquisition.

I would venture to say that if you attempted to purchase a more sought after model, you would not be met with success in a timely manner. There is no doubt there is a much higher demand than there is supply. Even if the blame game for the greys was true, there would be substantially more listed than the one or two new models on the big name dealer sights.

I called around to several ADs and had some good conversations with a few. The manager of one location explained what a predicament it is to gain new customers by allotting pieces to them vs keeping valued customers by the same means. This may very well be a new strategy by many ADs, which was not a concern in the past.

Just my observations, like everyone else, just trying to make sense of the madness

[garyk]

Originally Posted by holdingon

Demand is real. One major difference vs 10-20 yrs ago is IWC/Pam/Breitling/Omega(somewhat better) are all in the gutter one way or another. They really have no real competition until until you reach 15k+ USD zip code.

Isn’t that the truth! I remember being in Los Angeles when everyone wanted a Panerai. The Beverly Hills store never had more than 5 or 6 watches in the entire store. I think they were trying to emulate Rolex. Didn’t work out. I love my Panerai but I don’t think they are very hot anymore.