Market correction… YES or NO??? Thoughts?

[mykii]

Originally Posted by Krash

It looks like we’re starting to see supply/demand issues with other brands now besides the obvious ones (Rolex, Patek, AP)

For example, someone told me it’s virtually impossible to get some of the more popular Nomos models (Orion 38, Tangente 38, Ludwig 38).

I really don’t know for sure, but I checked some authorized dealer websites of Nomos, and they’re all sold out.

I checked the Nomos website for these models and it says delivery in 6 months.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think its all BS - I see those Nomos models on a daily basis in NYC.

[sj24k]

Just woke up from a great night’s sleep, yet somehow exhausted again.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[1665fan]

Nomos lol…..facepalm

[Tensai]

I know the certain answer to your question.
But I must keep it to myself for now.
Sorry.

[Chester01]

The market will continue to be manipulated as is for the foreseeable future. Why wouldn’t it? The AD benefits, gray market benefits? And posts like this indicate for most folks these days , the only relevance Rolex has is it’s monetary value. I mean given one can check their phone for the time, there is really little relevance in the brand today beyond the investment value and status from posting a hot piece on the instabooks.

[Mystro]

What if the market correction is significantly higher?? That is a factor no one anticipated over the last four years. Every market correction had to be lower but in fact the market correction was higher.

[gerry100]

Dont think we know what the served market (SM) is.

Only a small fraction of the population will buy a Rolex at any price.

IMHO, that fraction has been increased by low interest rates and money printing (me),boredom et al.

The SM could hit saturation at any time

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by curare78

Does anyone out here besides me think that after the holidays there will be a market correction? First or second quarter of 2022. Or with the current supply/demand mismatch the market will continue to go up?

I realize no one has a crystal ball but just curious what fellow collectors think.

TY
SB

No

[stevestil]

i know im new here but i just dont see how we can go from AD's not giving watches to just anyone and empty display cases to a market correction and display cases full again.

i really feel like this is going to be the new normal for quite some time unless there is a MASSIVE market crash which im not too sure of anytime soon.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Mystro

What if the market correction is significantly higher?? That is a factor no one anticipated over the last four years. Every market correction had to be lower but in fact the market correction was higher.

It can be higher, a lot higher as most base 'value' / 'price' on a devaluating item 'constant'.

Heck, it already is a lot higher... if one smartly compares prices of then versus now of homes, average car cost/upkeep, food costs, COL(A), etc.

I'd say more, yet don't wanna be banned from TRF.

Good luck out there

...and may the odds be ever in your favor

[stewester]

Originally Posted by Mystro

What if the market correction is significantly higher?? That is a factor no one anticipated over the last four years. Every market correction had to be lower but in fact the market correction was higher.

100% agree with this. I think we're much more likely to see prices double or even triple what they are today than go back anywhere near retail in the next 5 years.

[ks58]

Zero chance of market correction.

[dg1111]

The Rolex price drive is related to the overall market. We are over a decade into a boom. Everyone who owned property or had money in the stock market 10 years ago is feeling pretty rich right now. Wages are high. People have disposable income to spend on watches. While I do feel that prices for stocks, real estate, etc. are crazy high, the economists at the national banks seem to have figured out a way to keep it going. My thought is that the market will keep going up until the economists run out of ammunition. When they do run out, things could look pretty bad. I have no idea when that will happen.

[Anton911]

Originally Posted by BillA

Yes, definite correction in 1st or 2nd quarter next year…..prices going up.

This,spot on.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by BillA

Yes, definite correction in 1st or 2nd quarter next year…..prices going up.

Exactly what will cause people to try to buy and drive prices even higher.

There will be no corection, this is the new normal.

[amanbra]

Other than economics I think the perception of Rolex needs to change for there to be a correction.

If the brand one becomes linked to tasteless people (risk here) or criminals (possible) or both? Or all the social media instagrammers decide Rolex is simply not cool enough and the new thing is swatch or something or NFT apple watch faces... I don't know.

I would rely on the fact these luxury goods will simply keep going up in price.

[garyk]

I've lived through many market corrections over the past 50 years. The sky was actually never falling, the bottom was never reached and Rolex watches among other goods continued to rise in price unabated!! Don't hold your breath...

[FrenchBigCrown]

Originally Posted by TimeAZ

That's what they all said last year. And the year before. And the one before that... and so forth.

Look where we are now.

Exactly. I've been hearing (and reading) about 'corrections', 'prices flattening' and 'bubbles about to burst' for years now.

It's usually wishful thinking, in my opinion.

There will never be a better time to buy than 'now' (and that's whenever 'now' is) - unless you own Doc Brown's DeLorean.

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by curare78

You are most likely right but I’m sure I’m to impulsive to wait. My next post…. Did anyone else get destroyed with the market correction. Lol.

Too*

I'm sure there have been people waiting for about 5 years now since things began getting crazy, there is no sign of slowing down. No, no Market correction for the watch market. There was a slight dip around July, which is common as every summer is rather slow, but this is the climate and it will likely be the climate in the foreseeable future. Things will probably just keep getting "worse" or better, depending how you look at it.

My post fully answered your question

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

[JacksonRain]

Originally Posted by BillA

Yes, definite correction in 1st or 2nd quarter next year…..prices going up.

This

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

[Luke0968]

Not sure about Rolex, but we are definitely due a market correction of some sorts. Look at real estate and the stock market - both being propped up by government stimulus. Now we are facing huge inflation, those will be withdrawn and we’ll be left with a higher cost of living. Sure, wages are rising, but not enough to offset inflation.

My view - we’ve been living with cheap debt for over a decade. Interest rates are sure to go up, albeit slowly, and people will be more wise to borrowing (particularly those using leverage for luxury goods). Doubt it will affect the Rolex market dynamic much though as pretty sure it’s a market fuelled by people who have enough money not to worry about inflation ��

[teck21]

As some posters have pointed out, the idea of a correction in Rolex prices upwards is actually a good one.

This correction started a couple of years ago and is simply ongoing unless economic conditions change for the worse very drastically.

Rolex watches at MSRP were simply too cheap in today’s new economy.

They are still way too cheap, and secondary market prices simply reflect that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Matthew__Thomas]

No correction, too much money that was pumped in the system. The market will be really strong at least through 2022 if not into 2023. Now, if inflation keeps getting worse and the fed has to raise interest rates, that’ll be a different sorry in 2023-2024.

[Seddyspaghetti]

No.

[airchitect]

Originally Posted by TimepieceRPP

Only when the stock markets and bitcoins bubble burst.

Basically this……

Stocks, real estate, and all the coins will have to pop first………….THEN the other random markets like watches, cars, atv’s, and beanie babies will burst…..


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Polar Bear]

As always, the best time to buy a Rolex is yesterday

[huncho]

Originally Posted by TimepieceRPP

Only when the stock markets and bitcoins bubble burst.

ah yes the famous bitcoin bubble that's been going on since it was $500 and survived countless crashes including march 2020

[7enderbender]

Nobody knows. There is a huge renewed interest in watches - even in the “emerging markets” (which I think I the main reason why Western stores remain empty).
Now, prices will come down if and when the world markets crash and all the bozos who “invested” ( in essentially worthless houses, bitcoin and tech companies that sell mostly the idea of value but nothing real) - will take a bath. That’s when they will get rid of their Daytonas and ugly Pateks again that they bought as “investments” and to impress their peers.
Now, as satisfying as seeing some of those dummies again with their cardboard boxes in the street may seem - it’s not a situation that any of us should want. Because what’s coming will make 2008 look like a walk in the park (which it mostly was). We should enjoy the watch shortage and high prices as the kind of first world problem that it is and while we still can.

[Epanerai12]

If/When the credit markets tighten and spreads widen yes. Grey's will get squeezed to death on their bank loc, many will simply unload for as much as they can (or anything they can) and/or fold their tents. Advertising and sponsor Money flowing to "influencers" will evaporate sending them to real jobs only for those to be non-existent for them given their skillsets. The housing market tightens when credit gets tough and home prices come down, sending many buyers today underwater - prob not going to be nearly like a 2008 but tight and tough credit will grind the system everywhere, including and usually beginning with luxury goods. That in conjuction with a msrp price rise will prob free up the rolex/pp/ap market some... to what degree is purely speculation. I remember when I bought my first submariner in 2009 and I got 15% off and 0% financing. They were practically begging me to buy a submariner(or anything) to keep their lights on.

[Driver8]

Judging from the vast majority of responses in this thread (and the many others like it), I'd be shouting against a hurricane to offer an alternative viewpoint. People will only ever listen to what they want to hear.

All I will say is that a market bubble is created by speculation and greed, fuelled by people expecting the prices to keep on increasing forever. That is pretty much a text book definition. Apply that thinking to the current watch market (and the views/beliefs of many members here, as shown by their replies on this thread), and draw your own conclusions...

Yes, the watch market is slightly different to financial markets in as much as with watches you are buying a physical asset instead of a virtual one in the case of stocks and shares, but there are obvious parallels.

It's also worth noting that most bubbles are only recognised as such after the event, as right up until it bursts people maintain that it's not a bubble and some kind of "new normal". The key to spotting potential bubbles is to consider rationality - if consumer behaviour becomes irrational (like, for example, paying 3x retail for something) then it may indicate that we're in a bubble.

Anyway, as a qualified economist, I'm the first to admit that a lot of economic predictions are guesswork - EDUCATED guesswork informed by past knowledge and understanding, but still guesswork to some extent as none of us have crystal balls. Either way, I would just advocate a modicum of caution.