When did Rolex AD MSRP availability issues start?

[101031-28]

Originally Posted by Tqmb79

Late 2017 / early 2018

This

[YoyoGift8]

Originally Posted by tqmb79

late 2017 / early 2018

+1

[uhren917]

Originally Posted by Tqmb79

Late 2017 / early 2018

Yup! In early 2018, SAs were telling me by summer inventory levels would return. They were wrong. Discounts slowly dried up, then availability.

[pj1369]

When they re-released the Rolex Pepsi on Jubilee, things started getting extra crazy at a faster clip. That's when my discounts were reduced and waits started with my longtime AD. And, in past two years, it magnified across so many other pieces outside sports steel watches, imo.


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[inadeje]

Originally Posted by seabreeze60

Does anyone remember the history of when Rolex ADs started running out of popular models?

Daytona SS Zenith was impossible to buy between 1992 and 1999 (end of production) I tried. Ended up buying a TT.

I wasn’t interested any any others at the time, so I have no idea. Over the years since 2000 onwards the ADs seemed stocked with most other Rolex whenever I looked. The current situation seems to have started late 2017, getting gradually more critical since 2019.

[VogelPhoenix]

There were local shortages in 2015, often related to exchange rate fluctuations. E.g., finding a BLNR in the Eurozone in 2015 was difficult - I tried ~10ADs or so, and best I could do was get on a waitlist (they actually called a few months later, but by then I had already bought one in Switzerland).

The next major event was the collapse of the UKP before/after the Brexit vote in mid-2016 The resulting arbitrage opportunity cleaned out the British ADs, and then things spread (geographically, and within the Rolex model range) from there. At least that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

[Roger Lococco]

2016 in Asia.


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[PepsiBezel]

I think after the the ceramic SS Daytona 116500 (2016) followed by the Paul Newman Paul Newman Daytona then-record breaking auction (2017) things started to take off to the races.

I remember seeing occasional sports models in 2017. By 2018 stainless steel sport models were hard to find, and it’s continued on that trend since.

[Feb_29]

It started in Asia(Chana) around late 2015 early 2016 and spread out to the rest of the world in late 2017 early 2018. I remember seeing Asian tourists getting off the plain and getting on the bus heading right out to Rolex boutiques.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Feb_29

It started in Asia(Chana) around late 2015 early 2016 and spread out to the rest of the world in late 2017 early 2018. I remember seeing Asian tourists getting off the plain and getting on the bus heading right out to Rolex boutiques.

You’re confusing this with covid

[Feb_29]

Originally Posted by GB-man

You’re confusing this with covid

I think it's you who confused. COVID started late 2019. But hey, this spread can be call a Rolex virus.

[258Pearl]

Originally Posted by Feb_29

I think it's you who confused. COVID started late 2019. But hey, this spread can be call a Rolex virus.

[GB-man]

I was just being an a****** but you walked into that a bit lol

[afmars]

Late 1990s - everything but Daytonas readily available, Daytonas can be had with some effort.
2017 - ceramic Daytona impossible to get, BLNRs hard too.
2018 - forget about any steel GMT, subs also scarce
2019 - explorers start disappearing. Pretty much no professional models in steel except the odd ball YM or explorer, Milgauss
2020 - steel DJ41s starting to disappear. PM/TT sub, Daytona, etc can still be seen in display cases
2021 - PM sports models gone, but still some OPs, DD 36, dateJusts in display cases
2022 - exhibition only watches in display cases, and perhaps a diamond encrusted lady datejust or two.

[pj1369]

Originally Posted by afmars

Late 1990s - everything but Daytonas readily available, Daytonas can be had with some effort.
2017 - ceramic Daytona impossible to get, BLNRs hard too.
2018 - forget about any steel GMT, subs also scarce
2019 - explorers start disappearing. Pretty much no professional models in steel except the odd ball YM or explorer, Milgauss
2020 - steel DJ41s starting to disappear. PM/TT sub, Daytona, etc can still be seen in display cases
2021 - PM sports models gone, but still some OPs, DD 36, dateJusts in display cases
2022 - exhibition only watches in display cases, and perhaps a diamond encrusted lady datejust or two.

Agree ^


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[JSolution]

Originally Posted by afmars

Late 1990s - everything but Daytonas readily available, Daytonas can be had with some effort.
2017 - ceramic Daytona impossible to get, BLNRs hard too.
2018 - forget about any steel GMT, subs also scarce
2019 - explorers start disappearing. Pretty much no professional models in steel except the odd ball YM or explorer, Milgauss
2020 - steel DJ41s starting to disappear. PM/TT sub, Daytona, etc can still be seen in display cases
2021 - PM sports models gone, but still some OPs, DD 36, dateJusts in display cases
2022 - exhibition only watches in display cases, and perhaps a diamond encrusted lady datejust or two.

This is well summed up.

[Jsol]

Originally Posted by afmars

Late 1990s - everything but Daytonas readily available, Daytonas can be had with some effort.
2017 - ceramic Daytona impossible to get, BLNRs hard too.
2018 - forget about any steel GMT, subs also scarce
2019 - explorers start disappearing. Pretty much no professional models in steel except the odd ball YM or explorer, Milgauss
2020 - steel DJ41s starting to disappear. PM/TT sub, Daytona, etc can still be seen in display cases
2021 - PM sports models gone, but still some OPs, DD 36, dateJusts in display cases
2022 - exhibition only watches in display cases, and perhaps a diamond encrusted lady datejust or two.

Amazingly accurate!


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[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by afmars

2021 - PM sports models gone, but still some OPs, DD 36, dateJusts in display cases

OPs disappeared when the old line got discontinued and the new line came out, so that's september 2020.


I haven't seen DJs back in 2020 either.

[afmars]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

OPs disappeared when the old line got discontinued and the new line came out, so that's september 2020.


I haven't seen DJs back in 2020 either.

Of course these things will vary a lot AD to AD and region to region. I am mostly speaking generally from my experience at local ADs in Arizona.

I remember a visit to my AD in April 2021 where (in the case) they had 3-4x op34, a DD 36, 4-5x datejust (blend of 36 and 41) and a TT seadweller.

YMMV


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[samuel019]

You wanna know when or what started it??

Blame the hype monger of all hype mongers, the 116500. Been here on TRF for a decade and that was the first model I can remember seeing selling for a premium.

Even back in 2013 when the Platona was first introduced the very first ones here were selling 1-2k under MSRP. The 116500 fresh outta the gate were listed 8-10k over.

Just look in the history of the classifieds here on TRF. I have. So the 116500 opened the flood gates somewhat and by 2018 it was full blown madness. So I guess to answer your question I’d say 2018 but the 116500 was a catalyst

[Watcheroo]

Right around July 2017 - that’s the first time my AD (at the time) told me that they weren’t taking “orders” anymore.


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[GB-man]

I can only speak for the United States but 2012-2016 was a fantastic time to collect watches.

Everything was available. The hardest to land retail were the 5711 blue and then BLNR. Either could be had for 1-2 k premium NIB. Daytonas were 11-12k NIB. 5711 25k. Anything PM Rolex I could have 25% off and that would land you in the good graces of any AD. Aquanauts and other stainless Rolex discounts were there for the buyer who had some hustle. Nobody went to the AP boutique because they didn’t discount. Tiffany had aquanauts and nautilus (not 5711) in the case for sale. 15400 were 12k 15202 were 18k. You could trade a sandwich and coke for an FPJ.

[afmars]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I can only speak for the United States but 2012-2016 was a fantastic time to collect watches.

Everything was available. The hardest to land retail were the 5711 blue and then BLNR. Either could be had for 1-2 k premium NIB. Daytonas were 11-12k NIB. 5711 25k. Anything PM Rolex I could have 25% off and that would land you in the good graces of any AD. Aquanauts and other stainless Rolex discounts were there for the buyer who had some hustle. Nobody went to the AP boutique because they didn’t discount. Tiffany had aquanauts and nautilus (not 5711) in the case for sale. 15400 were 12k 15202 were 18k. You could trade a sandwich and coke for an FPJ.

Wow! Those were the days.

[TswaneNguni]

Around 2018,but really in 2020.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by afmars

Wow! Those were the days.

They absolutely were for the tiny niche of nerds buying them. Ignore price because honestly back then they almost seemed more expensive because we took losses on everything…

I lost 3k on my first 5711, 4K on my 5167, 3k on my first 15400 etc

The real part I miss is being able to walk into any store while on vacation and receiving excellent service and having the option to buy anything released that year at SIHH or Basel. We debated the watches for their merits, availability was almost never a conversation except for a 5131 etc.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by GB-man

They absolutely were for the tiny niche of nerds buying them. Ignore price because honestly back then they almost seemed more expensive because we took losses on everything…

I lost 3k on my first 5711, 4K on my 5167, 3k on my first 15400 etc

The real part I miss is being able to walk into any store while on vacation and receiving excellent service and having the option to buy anything released that year at SIHH or Basel. We debated the watches for their merits, availability was almost never a conversation except for a 5131 etc.

I miss the part when I was not afraid of scratching little precious on the wrist ..

When Rolex just retained value was the fun era .

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

I miss the part when I was not afraid of scratching little precious on the wrist ..

When Rolex just retained value was the fun era .

We use to have endless threads about wrist awareness lol

Back when scratching your genta was a matter of ocd not cpa

[Ensign]

Originally Posted by GB-man

They absolutely were for the tiny niche of nerds buying them.

Yup - I felt like a nerd shopping at ADs back then in the 90s. I didn’t trust the few greys and online sources. Discounts were offered by desperate SAs left and right.

We had a strange attachment to the brand back then. We were spending thousands on mechanical watches when our peers were were wearing cheap quartz watches and buying German sports sedans or taking trips. There wasn’t the internet community, of course. If you were deep in the hobby you got those magazines. But Rolex was more personal back then; I don’t remember wearing it to get noticed. Your Rolex was worn under a sleeve and you admired how robust the design and engineering was.

[Gekota]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I can only speak for the United States but 2012-2016 was a fantastic time to collect watches.

Everything was available. The hardest to land retail were the 5711 blue and then BLNR. Either could be had for 1-2 k premium NIB. Daytonas were 11-12k NIB. 5711 25k. Anything PM Rolex I could have 25% off and that would land you in the good graces of any AD. Aquanauts and other stainless Rolex discounts were there for the buyer who had some hustle. Nobody went to the AP boutique because they didn’t discount. Tiffany had aquanauts and nautilus (not 5711) in the case for sale. 15400 were 12k 15202 were 18k. You could trade a sandwich and coke for an FPJ.

That was truly the golden era when it came to availability of the modern pieces.

[goodolejr]

Fall 2017