Prices not dropping?

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

There will be no line in 3 months' time according to the gurus here. We can get any watch we want at MSRP or below then, including those lovely Pateks, just like the old days. Happy are those who save up for times like that. Bookmark your calendar

Net margin is thin (10%). So they need volume or big pieces.

Most of these new flippers and new greys made wrong personal and professional choices stacking fixed costs: nice car leasing, nice apartment, risky speculation, commercial rental, employees, etc.

The weakest ones will quickly have to make "hard decisions" (=sell under their break point).
The others have enough financial backing to survive (Richemont's Watchfinder) and can try to find a solution to keep a positive appearance.

Now we do not know what is happening behind the curtain.

Trust is important in this business. The greys and the flippers do not want to scare anyone and they know that bad news are contagious and toxic for the whole business.

Fun story: In the 2000's I was working for a big IT service company. Internally we knew that they were almost bankrupt. In parallel they were publishing job openings in the newspaper (it was an other time!) and on Internet. We understood that they were fake and only used A) to reassure the customers in case they heard a rumor B) as a selling argument for the sell teams.

[2loaded]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

Not sure how your inferring I’m a “tire kicker”. Lots of TRF members lurk on Moda and they welcome it. You think all 45.5k members are actively buying/selling? I don’t think so bud.

I get all my pieces new from the AD just like you, but in my case, they don’t force undesirable references on me that I have to spam the classifieds here to try and sell. We actually share a Dallas AD too.

Flippers amongst us indeed.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by HMHM

I fully agree that the Rolex franchise is immensely important to every AD. It’s their cash cow these days and it draws customers in to their boutiques. That being said, if like you said that ADs are doing their best to ensure their watches end up with end users rather than flippers/secondary dealers, why does the latest YG YM42 appear on DSW’s website? Many other ADs have not even seen the latest releases, yet DSW has gotten one to resell at a mark up. I’m highly curious how does the AD do their due diligence and sell likely their first received piece to a flipper. The fact that a 2022 release was sold to a customer (likely a good customer since he/she got it that quickly), who then flips it for a profit, suggests that the AD is either bad at their job in identifying appropriate customers or they are in it together. Either way we look at it, doesn’t reflect that good on the AD, does it?

I bet rolex will buy them all to identify the ADs. They will send a nice letter to the ADs, lower their margin or remove them from the network.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by EEpro

The 520 Daytona I have listed in the classifieds. I also corrected my post so the language would be clearer. All offers were 40% below list price instead of the usual.

On a stainless Daytona no less. I am quite surprised it was that low, but i knew it was nowhere near the $1-$2k margin some around here like to preach about.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

I bet rolex will buy them all to identify the ADs. They will send a nice letter to the ADs, lower their margin or remove them from the network.

It would be great if they did! Like you said, even the Rolex owned Geneva boutique has not seen most of the 2022 releases, yet one is available for resell on the secondary market. Thats just ridiculous.

There’s nothing left to say honestly. If the AD can’t allocate watches to people who will actually wear the watch, then what’s their role of being an AD?

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by rolex16

On a stainless Daytona no less. I am quite surprised it was that low, but i knew it was nowhere near the $1-$2k margin some around here like to preach about.

It's 20% with my usual TS. I can't complain. My whole collection came from AD except for this 520.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by EEpro

It's 20% with my usual TS. I can't complain. My whole collection came from AD except for this 520.

Yeah, and that’s sort of expected, but not the figures others tout around here. You’d think greys were running charities to hear some people tell it.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by 2loaded

Flippers amongst us indeed.

Definitely.

Sure got quiet.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

Definitely.

Sure got quiet.

So your AD sells to someone flagrantly flipping? And people think this is an isolated incident? But yeah, ADs would never risk losing their Rolex AD status…

Sounds like they should be reported to Rolex USA.

[samuel019]

Well I just want to add this. Granted it’s gonna be a long one and only my opinion but to all the posters that say how silly it is to wish gloom and doom on peoples livelihoods, economic crashes, etc etc etc just so they can buy a watch cheaper is just stupid.

I don't see anyone saying anything like that. Watch lovers/enthusiasts, the true watch people, have been treated like pure shit the last 3-5 years by A D’s and just want the WATCH madness to stop. Enough is enough. It’s just people releasing pent up frustration over all the bull crap. The hoarding, the 200-300% markups, the getting told we have nothing for you, the omg demand is through the roof, the SD43 is as hard as a RG Daytona, and on and on and on.

Case in point, my 116515. 10 years plus, over 100k spent, other jewelry as in my wife’s engagement ring that was not cheap, not a flipper, not over bearing-check in once every 1-2 months, buying when cases were full, etc. and not only did my A D not come through I got teased/texted with pictures of 4 different RG Daytona’s that ultimately ended with none so I had to go Grey.

I guess you could say well you didn’t have to well actually yes I did. Because I for one am a watch lover and wanted the model badly especially after all the teases. Now if the market wasn’t filled with so much BS would I have had to? I guess that’s up for debate. So enclosing IF by taking a “tad” bit of satisfaction that the wrong people in this hobby may take it on the chin and its awesome well call me an evil a$$ if you’d like

I just feel that if we remove the hype, pull back the curtain, and some people, the WRONG people, get exposed the true watch people can get back to enjoying this hobby. Most importantly TRF can return to some sort of normalcy.

[Al1969]

Originally Posted by samuel019

Well I just want to add this. Granted it’s gonna be a long one and only my opinion but to all the posters that say how silly it is to wish gloom and doom on peoples livelihoods, economic crashes, etc etc etc just so they can buy a watch cheaper is just stupid.

I don't see anyone saying anything like that. Watch lovers/enthusiasts, the true watch people, have been treated like pure shit the last 3-5 years by A D’s and just want the WATCH madness to stop. Enough is enough. It’s just people releasing pent up frustration over all the bull crap. The hoarding, the 200-300% markups, the getting told we have nothing for you, the omg demand is through the roof, the SD43 is as hard as a RG Daytona, and on and on and on.

Case in point, my 116515. 10 years plus, over 100k spent, other jewelry as in my wife’s engagement ring that was not cheap, not a flipper, not over bearing-check in once every 1-2 months, buying when cases were full, etc. and not only did my A D not come through I got teased/texted with pictures of 4 different RG Daytona’s that ultimately ended with none so I had to go Grey.

I guess you could say well you didn’t have to well actually yes I did. Because I for one am a watch lover and wanted the model badly especially after all the teases. Now if the market wasn’t filled with so much BS would I have had to? I guess that’s up for debate. So enclosing IF by taking a “tad” bit of satisfaction that the wrong people in this hobby may take it on the chin and its awesome well call me an evil a$$ if you’d like

I just feel that if we remove the hype, pull back the curtain, and some people, the WRONG people, get exposed the true watch people can get back to enjoying this hobby. Most importantly TRF can return to some sort of normalcy.

Well said.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Al1969

Well said.

X2

[Al1969]

Originally Posted by rolex16

X2

Time for the hobby to return to the enthusiasts.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Al1969

Time for the hobby to return to the enthusiasts.

Totally! Let’s hope it happens this year.

[JRell]

…just dropped again…just a little…

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by JRell

…just dropped again…just a little…

I get Jomaspammed 3x daily and saw they lowered the green dial nautilus from $850,000 to $594,500. Not only is it a better price it sounds way less made up.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by Al1969

Well said.

Originally Posted by rolex16

X2

Originally Posted by Al1969

Time for the hobby to return to the enthusiasts.

Originally Posted by rolex16

Totally! Let’s hope it happens this year.

Damn right. Hopefully

It’s not only that handful or dozens of backpack wannabe watch dealers it’s also some of the A D’s. And that’s all some of us are saying. Simply saying the watch market taking a dip is needed to correct everything. It’s ALL connected.

Are there members here that have wonderful amazing A D relationships here on TRF? Of course. Hell one guy has posted he already has gotten 5 in 2022 alone including a Meteorite 515. So there’s always gonna be an exception to the rule but IMO they are the few and most of us are the plenty. At the end of day it’s all connected. A D’s 1,000,000% know what’s going on in the secondary market. That’s why they act like they are doing you a solid. So if a few bad eggs get thrown in the trash to make a difference then oh well. Those rotten eggs just might be the fuel to the flame that brings back some type of normalcy. So let em burn

Notice I stated bad eggs and I would Not put the majority of our awesome Trusted Sellers in that category.

[2loaded]

Originally Posted by rolex16

So your AD sells to someone flagrantly flipping? And people think this is an isolated incident? But yeah, ADs would never risk losing their Rolex AD status…

Sounds like they should be reported to Rolex USA.

Yea, something is foul here. The amount of FS posts seems to exceed that of a hobbyist.

[David001]

Originally Posted by GW44

Genuinely interested in your definition of "back to normal" please David.

Originally Posted by GW44

With respect Nick the US and UK markets are very, very different. So I look forward to David (who I think is Uk based as well) to answer the question posed.

Thanks.

I was going to respond to your earlier claim of ADs in the UK receiving less watches now, which I thought was contradictory because at the same time you said you'd bought 2x new Rolexes in ADs and turned down a WG Sub in less than a month!
But I decided that it wasn't worth the hassle, I didn't sign on to educate you and you appear to be one of those people that always wants to argue and demand "verifiable evidence" yet offer none yourself.

Here we are though, long post -

Back to normal for me is how it was for the first 35yrs of me collecting watches prior to 2017. Back to normal for you might be something different, I have no idea. I started off in my teens buying what I could afford and bought most of everything including my Rolex sport watches out of the case, except my Daytona which I had a short wait for and no discount. The caveat is that I wasn't buying a Patek every two months like some people here apparently were, so I can't comment on whether that was possible.
I usually saved up and bought a watch every year around bonus time and the only ones I remember waiting for was a limited edition Omega, an IWC and a Daytona.

I lived in the USA for ten years. There was no difference in watch buying except some brands weren't as common. I struggled to buy an IWC because they weren't as popular there at the time as Europe and we had to wait until we went to Europe to buy my wife's Baume et Mercier.

But the USA is a vast country and you can't make sweeping statements, it's like saying English people are the same as Romanians because they're only a few thousands miles apart. If you take a guy from Boston MA and stick him in a room with a Texan, or a guy from Miami, you'll see they'll probably have quite different cultures and tastes. The language is mostly the same but laws, attitudes and tastes vary from state to state, I think a lot of people (even some Americans) don't fully appreciate that sometimes.

From a transaction point of view I didn't notice any differences, I would go into a watch shop, choose the watch I wanted, ask for a discount and have a chat. In fact the only difference is the Americans were very interested in my accent and always wanted to chat for ages and they're very courteous, whereas if you go into WOS in Manchester during the same period you'd have met a fat lady with a bad attitude and a greasy chubby bloke with ginger teeth that didn't know anything about watches.

City folk were more likely to be watch enthusiasts than country folk, but that's true the world over. You're more likely to find someone wearing a gold sub in the grove in Miami than you are in Linton Nebraska. Same difference in Knightsbridge versus Grimsby.

You'll have to tell me all about those massive differences that you're claiming because I didn't see them, perhaps you were in a different place? I was mostly east, MA, NH, NC, except for 3yrs in Houston. It might be very different in CA for example, I only ever visited.

I have no idea what the USA has been like in the last decade, I haven't been back other than short transits through Miami, so perhaps time has changed it?

You've made two statements (very different markets in US and UK, and UK ADs getting less watches now) but offered nothing by way of explanation.
You'll have to explain what you mean and offer verifiable evidence

[boring_sandwich]

Originally Posted by David001

I was going to respond to your earlier claim of ADs in the UK receiving less watches now, which I thought was contradictory because at the same time you said you'd bought 2x new Rolexes in ADs and turned down a WG Sub in less than a month!
But I decided that it wasn't worth the hassle, I didn't sign on to educate you and you appear to be one of those people that always wants to argue and demand "verifiable evidence" yet offer none yourself.

Here we are though, long post -

Back to normal for me is how it was for the first 35yrs of me collecting watches prior to 2017. Back to normal for you might be something different, I have no idea. I started off in my teens buying what I could afford and bought most of everything including my Rolex sport watches out of the case, except my Daytona which I had a short wait for and no discount. The caveat is that I wasn't buying a Patek every two months like some people here apparently were, so I can't comment on whether that was possible.
I usually saved up and bought a watch every year around bonus time and the only ones I remember waiting for was a limited edition Omega, an IWC and a Daytona.

I lived in the USA for ten years. There was no difference in watch buying except some brands weren't as common. I struggled to buy an IWC because they weren't as popular there at the time as Europe and we had to wait until we went to Europe to buy my wife's Baume et Mercier.

But the USA is a vast country and you can't make sweeping statements, it's like saying English people are the same as Romanians because they're only a few thousands miles apart. If you take a guy from Boston MA and stick him in a room with a Texan, or a guy from Miami, you'll see they'll probably have quite different cultures and tastes. The language is mostly the same but laws, attitudes and tastes vary from state to state, I think a lot of people (even some Americans) don't fully appreciate that sometimes.

From a transaction point of view I didn't notice any differences, I would go into a watch shop, choose the watch I wanted, ask for a discount and have a chat. In fact the only difference is the Americans were very interested in my accent and always wanted to chat for ages and they're very courteous, whereas if you go into WOS in Manchester during the same period you'd have met a fat lady with a bad attitude and a greasy chubby bloke with ginger teeth that didn't know anything about watches.

City folk were more likely to be watch enthusiasts than country folk, but that's true the world over. You're more likely to find someone wearing a gold sub in the grove in Miami than you are in Linton Nebraska. Same difference in Knightsbridge versus Grimsby.

You'll have to tell me all about those massive differences that you're claiming because I didn't see them, perhaps you were in a different place? I was mostly east, MA, NH, NC, except for 3yrs in Houston. It might be very different in CA for example, I only ever visited.

I have no idea what the USA has been like in the last decade, I haven't been back other than short transits through Miami, so perhaps time has changed it?

You've made two statements (very different markets in US and UK, and UK ADs getting less watches now) but offered nothing by way of explanation.
You'll have to explain what you mean and offer verifiable evidence

Well said.

[Old Expat Beast]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

Not sure how your inferring I’m a “tire kicker”. Lots of TRF members lurk on Moda and they welcome it. You think all 45.5k members are actively buying/selling? I don’t think so bud.

I get all my pieces new from the AD just like you, but in my case, they don’t force undesirable references on me that I have to spam the classifieds here to try and sell. We actually share a Dallas AD too.

Danny83 has been badgering mods for hours to get this post deleted. Very annoying. Seems like you struck a nerve.

[Miker86]

A trusted reseller I’ve bought from previously in the UK has now reduced their prices on existing stock. This isn’t Watchfinder either who reduce from 50% over market price to 30% over market price. Maybe things are moving now.

[2loaded]

Originally Posted by Old Expat Beast

Danny83 has been badgering mods for hours to get this post deleted. Very annoying. Seems like you struck a nerve.

Very interesting.

[ninjin]

My family always taught me, "if your head is not so big, why did you buy such a big hat?".

There will always be AD's and there always be grey/used/secondary dealers. This is straight up commericial business. Buying and selling a Rolex is no different from buying a car. You can go to the Car dealership for that brand, buy used from a used car dealer or go via a broker. They are both use the same business model.

In a normal market, where supply can satisfy demand, the AD will try and sell as much as they can to their retail customers. If you have a used watch you want to part exchange, the AD will assist and they will call up their buyer and find out what they will pay. Once the deal is completed, you walk away with your new watch and your used one will be going to the used watch dealer. The models that are low in demand and the AD find hard to shift, will be sold off to the grey dealers at a discounted price. The grey dealers will then sell these watches to the public at a discounted price from MRRP.

For most of you on this forum and reading this thread, this is something you may find strange. Anyone who has actively purchased Rolex prior to 2016 will know the above scenario.

I've been buying Rolex since 2000 and the market was relatively static until 2017. You could walk in and buy most (the SS daytona was always a little difficult) via the AD. If they did not have it in stock, most would take a few weeks to order in via Rolex. If it was just a dial colour, they would swap out the dial with another one, either in store or at RSC. If you wanted the retail experience you went to an AD.

If you were savvy and cared only for the best price, you would find a grey dealer and see how much you could save on the watch compared to an AD. Bear in mind, AD's in those days also discounted if you asked. As a rule of thumb, the grey was always going to be the cheapest option.

If you wanted a used one, you would just go to a shop that sold used ones. It was simple then....

So, since 2017 the pricing structure in the model above has not existed and what we know today is the norm. AD's no/minimal supply at MRRP, Grey's supply immediately at premium and used prices crazy high.

As with any commodity, prices will fluctuate up and down. The Rolex curve since 2017 has only been going one way and it hit the top in Feb 2022. The rollercoaster is now at the top and ready to start the downward gravity ride.

So where does, "if your head is not so big, why did you buy such a big hat?" come into this? Those who bought to wear and could afford the purchase price (MRRP or Grey/used) will be annoyed prices have dropped for sure but will not feel financially strained. Those who spent beyond their financial means to buy a Rolex thinking that it will only go up in price or those who treated it as a commodity, are the ones who think (wish/pray to god) that the Rolex prices are not dropping.

Their heads are buried so far deep in the sand to stop their heads wallowing in the negative equity inside their hats.

[underpar]

Originally Posted by ninjin

My family always taught me, "if your head is not so big, why did you buy such a big hat?".

There will always be AD's and there always be grey/used/secondary dealers. This is straight up commericial business. Buying and selling a Rolex is no different from buying a car. You can go to the Car dealership for that brand, buy used from a used car dealer or go via a broker. They are both use the same business model.

In a normal market, where supply can satisfy demand, the AD will try and sell as much as they can to their retail customers. If you have a used watch you want to part exchange, the AD will assist and they will call up their buyer and find out what they will pay. Once the deal is completed, you walk away with your new watch and your used one will be going to the used watch dealer. The models that are low in demand and the AD find hard to shift, will be sold off to the grey dealers at a discounted price. The grey dealers will then sell these watches to the public at a discounted price from MRRP.

For most of you on this forum and reading this thread, this is something you may find strange. Anyone who has actively purchased Rolex prior to 2016 will know the above scenario.

I've been buying Rolex since 2000 and the market was relatively static until 2017. You could walk in and buy most (the SS daytona was always a little difficult) via the AD. If they did not have it in stock, most would take a few weeks to order in via Rolex. If it was just a dial colour, they would swap out the dial with another one, either in store or at RSC. If you wanted the retail experience you went to an AD.

If you were savvy and cared only for the best price, you would find a grey dealer and see how much you could save on the watch compared to an AD. Bear in mind, AD's in those days also discounted if you asked. As a rule of thumb, the grey was always going to be the cheapest option.

If you wanted a used one, you would just go to a shop that sold used ones. It was simple then....

So, since 2017 the pricing structure in the model above has not existed and what we know today is the norm. AD's no/minimal supply at MRRP, Grey's supply immediately at premium and used prices crazy high.

As with any commodity, prices will fluctuate up and down. The Rolex curve since 2017 has only been going one way and it hit the top in Feb 2022. The rollercoaster is now at the top and ready to start the downward gravity ride.

So where does, "if your head is not so big, why did you buy such a big hat?" come into this? Those who bought to wear and could afford the purchase price (MRRP or Grey/used) will be annoyed prices have dropped for sure but will not feel financially strained. Those who spent beyond their financial means to buy a Rolex thinking that it will only go up in price or those who treated it as a commodity, are the ones who think (wish/pray to god) that the Rolex prices are not dropping.

Their heads are buried so far deep in the sand to stop their heads wallowing in the negative equity inside their hats.

Does be anyone actually read anything this long? And who writes this??

[David001]

Originally Posted by underpar

Does be anyone actually read anything this long? And who writes this??

I read it, I thought it was a decent post.

[Chris]

Originally Posted by underpar

Does be anyone actually read anything this long? And who writes this??

Delete

[Chris]

Originally Posted by ninjin

My family always taught me, "if your head is not so big, why did you buy such a big hat?".

There will always be AD's and there always be grey/used/secondary dealers. This is straight up commericial business. Buying and selling a Rolex is no different from buying a car. You can go to the Car dealership for that brand, buy used from a used car dealer or go via a broker. They are both use the same business model.

In a normal market, where supply can satisfy demand, the AD will try and sell as much as they can to their retail customers. If you have a used watch you want to part exchange, the AD will assist and they will call up their buyer and find out what they will pay. Once the deal is completed, you walk away with your new watch and your used one will be going to the used watch dealer. The models that are low in demand and the AD find hard to shift, will be sold off to the grey dealers at a discounted price. The grey dealers will then sell these watches to the public at a discounted price from MRRP.

For most of you on this forum and reading this thread, this is something you may find strange. Anyone who has actively purchased Rolex prior to 2016 will know the above scenario.

I've been buying Rolex since 2000 and the market was relatively static until 2017. You could walk in and buy most (the SS daytona was always a little difficult) via the AD. If they did not have it in stock, most would take a few weeks to order in via Rolex. If it was just a dial colour, they would swap out the dial with another one, either in store or at RSC. If you wanted the retail experience you went to an AD.

If you were savvy and cared only for the best price, you would find a grey dealer and see how much you could save on the watch compared to an AD. Bear in mind, AD's in those days also discounted if you asked. As a rule of thumb, the grey was always going to be the cheapest option.

If you wanted a used one, you would just go to a shop that sold used ones. It was simple then....

So, since 2017 the pricing structure in the model above has not existed and what we know today is the norm. AD's no/minimal supply at MRRP, Grey's supply immediately at premium and used prices crazy high.

As with any commodity, prices will fluctuate up and down. The Rolex curve since 2017 has only been going one way and it hit the top in Feb 2022. The rollercoaster is now at the top and ready to start the downward gravity ride.

So where does, "if your head is not so big, why did you buy such a big hat?" come into this? Those who bought to wear and could afford the purchase price (MRRP or Grey/used) will be annoyed prices have dropped for sure but will not feel financially strained. Those who spent beyond their financial means to buy a Rolex thinking that it will only go up in price or those who treated it as a commodity, are the ones who think (wish/pray to god) that the Rolex prices are not dropping.

Their heads are buried so far deep in the sand to stop their heads wallowing in the negative equity inside their hats.

My mum used to say hang your hat where you can reach it.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by David001

I was going to respond to your earlier claim of ADs in the UK receiving less watches now, which I thought was contradictory because at the same time you said you'd bought 2x new Rolexes in ADs and turned down a WG Sub in less than a month!
But I decided that it wasn't worth the hassle, I didn't sign on to educate you and you appear to be one of those people that always wants to argue and demand "verifiable evidence" yet offer none yourself.

Here we are though, long post -

Back to normal for me is how it was for the first 35yrs of me collecting watches prior to 2017. Back to normal for you might be something different, I have no idea. I started off in my teens buying what I could afford and bought most of everything including my Rolex sport watches out of the case, except my Daytona which I had a short wait for and no discount. The caveat is that I wasn't buying a Patek every two months like some people here apparently were, so I can't comment on whether that was possible.
I usually saved up and bought a watch every year around bonus time and the only ones I remember waiting for was a limited edition Omega, an IWC and a Daytona.

I lived in the USA for ten years. There was no difference in watch buying except some brands weren't as common. I struggled to buy an IWC because they weren't as popular there at the time as Europe and we had to wait until we went to Europe to buy my wife's Baume et Mercier.

But the USA is a vast country and you can't make sweeping statements, it's like saying English people are the same as Romanians because they're only a few thousands miles apart. If you take a guy from Boston MA and stick him in a room with a Texan, or a guy from Miami, you'll see they'll probably have quite different cultures and tastes. The language is mostly the same but laws, attitudes and tastes vary from state to state, I think a lot of people (even some Americans) don't fully appreciate that sometimes.

From a transaction point of view I didn't notice any differences, I would go into a watch shop, choose the watch I wanted, ask for a discount and have a chat. In fact the only difference is the Americans were very interested in my accent and always wanted to chat for ages and they're very courteous, whereas if you go into WOS in Manchester during the same period you'd have met a fat lady with a bad attitude and a greasy chubby bloke with ginger teeth that didn't know anything about watches.

City folk were more likely to be watch enthusiasts than country folk, but that's true the world over. You're more likely to find someone wearing a gold sub in the grove in Miami than you are in Linton Nebraska. Same difference in Knightsbridge versus Grimsby.

You'll have to tell me all about those massive differences that you're claiming because I didn't see them, perhaps you were in a different place? I was mostly east, MA, NH, NC, except for 3yrs in Houston. It might be very different in CA for example, I only ever visited.

I have no idea what the USA has been like in the last decade, I haven't been back other than short transits through Miami, so perhaps time has changed it?

You've made two statements (very different markets in US and UK, and UK ADs getting less watches now) but offered nothing by way of explanation.
You'll have to explain what you mean and offer verifiable evidence

Thank you for replying David and I’ll do you the courtesy of a full reply to your varied points.

Like you I’ve been buying watches from brands like Rolex for 35+ years and have seen all the changes in the retail landscape over that time.

And, again like you, I’ve lived, worked and bought watches all over the world in that time too. A significant part of my life was spent living/working in California and New York and I’m very well travelled in the US per se so like to feel I have a decent take on the consumer goods markets stateside. Given the business’s I currently own and run it’s important to have an appreciation of differing worldwide markets whilst concentrating on the Uk one as that is where we derive our revenue streams.

There are many direct correlations between the US and UK markets for various product categories but at the same time there are several (including the watch market and it’s nuanced landscape) areas that are, I believe, very different.

And yes I do not have “verifiable proof” of this view but, as with a lot you’ve said, neither do you and it’s just an opinion. I’ve no issue with that if it’s one borne of experience (as ours both are) but I do have an issue with certain posters making vast, sweeping comments with zero context or explanation as they choose to run with the herd posting mentality or style you often see on forums. I will maybe (if I can be bothered) respond to his facile “well said” post in due course.

I really have no skin in the game (watch market movements) here or desire to debate/argue on line with anyone but if someone is going to post in a style that says a lot but offers nothing to move the topic on then I’m going to ask a direct question to ascertain their understanding or motivation.

Onto your prediction. You believe the watch market will wind back 5-6 years to where we were in 2016/2017. That’s fine that you think that but I personally just don’t see it happening in the manner you describe or hope for. I also wish the market would return to where it was and for us watch fans it was, bluntly, less of a total faff to buy/collect what you want/when you want or could afford. But the landscape has changed and the brands like Rolex have too. I believe that even if you take out all the flippers, speculators and scalpers it’ll still look very much like it does now but, maybe, just with slightly shorter lead times and, again maybe, less outlay being required. Will Rolex watches be freely available at list price or discounted? In my view, absolutely not as we aren’t in that world anymore.

You also reference my recent purchases and that I declined a new White Gold Sub but, with respect, not the fuller context of why/what I said there. Another poster made an unsubstantiated post about declining new watches being rife (not his word, but his gist) and offered no context (which I did in my post) to that statement…..hence me asking the direct question that you requoted back to me of “verifiable proof” As is usual for him here and on the UK TZ forum he offers no value or real colour to wide ranging comments on watches/the market so I called him on that and he’s yet to offer anything of note in response here. Make of that what you will.

As for AD’s in the Uk getting less watches over the last, say, 2-3 years is that something we really need to debate or put figures to?! Come on, it’s plainly obvious that the Uk market has got less watches over that recent period and it’s contributed to the market we have now as well as the huge levers that were Brexit and then Covid. I do have direct quotes from “my” Uk Rolex AD (that I know well/trust implicitly as I know the owners of the business over many years) on the current allocations/stock holding they have vs. times past and it is vastly lower year on year.

I hope that this (also lengthy) reply goes some way towards answering your questions and fleshing out my views, experience and reasons for posting David.

Have a nice weekend

[GW44]

Originally Posted by David001

I read it, I thought it was a decent post.

Me too….