Prices not dropping?

[Podmornica]

I've noticed a slow moving trend .. Watches are sitting with new ones coming in on a daily basis. There's more Pepsi offerings now than ever before.

[yonexsp]

Massive dump of watches for sale on Rolex & Omega forums by the leading Greys.


Never sent so many put up for sale in such a short space of time. Especially on the Omega forums.

https://www.watchrecon.com/?last_days=1

[huncho]

Originally Posted by yonexsp

Massive dump of watches for sale on Rolex & Omega forums by the leading Greys.


Never sent so many put up for sale in such a short space of time. Especially on the Omega forums.

https://www.watchrecon.com/?last_days=1

omega had full cases even during the peak, not surprised that if rolexes are going through a fire sale omegas are being dumped

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

Note how confident he is about market evolution (smile lost, looking down and touching things to reassure him-self)... "Best time to buy"... He is less convincing that the usual youtube influencers...

https://youtu.be/TkT6cKfXCw8?t=35

PS: I know it is feminine magazine psychology. ;)

"Body language analysis" is pseudoscientific BS. and you're using it because of a phenomenon called confirmation bias.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by yonexsp

Massive dump of watches for sale on Rolex & Omega forums by the leading Greys.


Never sent so many put up for sale in such a short space of time. Especially on the Omega forums.

https://www.watchrecon.com/?last_days=1

I'd expect if many end users were buying Omega as a substitute for a bloated-price submariner ($17k for a no date ) and now the submariner is coming down it's going to hit omega resales hard. I have 4 modern omegas and I'm a fan fyi.

[Goin2drt]

Originally Posted by yonexsp

Massive dump of watches for sale on Rolex & Omega forums by the leading Greys.


Never sent so many put up for sale in such a short space of time. Especially on the Omega forums.

https://www.watchrecon.com/?last_days=1

Somebody tell the Trusted Sellers here please. Not seeing any "dumping" but do have my eyes on a few.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Goin2drt

Somebody tell the Trusted Sellers here please. Not seeing any "dumping" but do have my eyes on a few.

But they are making super lowball offers to purchase and passing on purchases of "hot" items. Doesn't seem to show much confidence in the future of the market.

[Goin2drt]

Originally Posted by rolex16

But they are making super lowball offers to purchase and passing on purchases of "hot" items. Doesn't seem to show much confidence in the future of the market.

I don’t disagree however they are not unloading these hot items either like you would think based on all these posts. I am waiting patiently ready to buy these “hot” deals folks are talking about.

[cfidentification]

Hello All,

I have watched (pun intended) this forum for several years. This particular thread caught my attention, and I just finally could not help myself. I am not a professional economist, but I have been involved, like many of you, in various endeavors where there was a transition from collector passion and interest to an investment opportunity. When the dealers take over, it essentially ruins the subject because the passion leaves and the $$$ take over.

I am sure some of you have done the same, I have kept a spreadsheet going back some years where I tracked certain Rolex indexes. I recorded certain key indicators such as the MSRP, “gray market” asking prices from various sources across the web and in person, rough sale price, and, perhaps the most interesting aspect- the turnover ratio. Another interesting piece of data revealed those indexes which were poor buys for the flipper or gray marketeer- where the estimated profit on the flip was practically nil or the turnaround time was too long for too little a return. To keep it clean only certain Rolexes were tracked, and the watches were consistent- complete kits with box, papers, and so forth. There are some estimations taken since we cannot know what the exact gray sale price was, nor the actual turnover date, so we use the best estimate we have; nothing is perfect. I am sure you all would agree, at least on the Rolex Forums the discounting on stale listings tends to be just a few hundred dollars at best, minuscule in a deal typically exceeding over $10k on the low end.

We all know there are retail buyers from the AD which are at an advantage over others. For example, I believe the sales tax rate in Manhattan is about 8.875%. Clearly this puts someone in Anchorage, Alaska at a 0% rate at a clear economic advantage on a possible flip. Yes, there is a Rolex AD in Anchorage. This could be well over a 1k of leverage in the seller’s favor.

So, here are the facts:

The era of cheap money is coming to an end. Interest rates in the United States are increasing and will likely continue to trend upwards. The published WSJ Prime Rate as of May 13th stands at 4.00% currently, it was 3.25% a year ago. The Fed discount rate is now 1.00, it was .25 a year ago. See a trend? Obviously large purchases are made easier with cheap money which creditors are eager to lend. Look at how hot RV and boat sales were, fueled by the cheap money but as interest rates climb, that $100,000+ boat or RV is not as cheap anymore. If you bought a Rolex on a flip, floating easy credit and low interest, well, that is changing. People I know in the car, RV, and airplane business all agree it is starting to slow, some say a lot, some say a tad- all say starting to slow down. Look at introductory rates on new credit cards, or those with a variable rate, the rates are climbing. Worried about used car prices? These should start to settle, the repo business is getting busier, I know people in the business.

Inflation in the United States is understated. No matter what the talking heads say about it, they are bending the inflation calculation to keep it low for the news. Gas went up some 20 cents a gallon in a matter of hours just days ago where I am. Look at basic essential living expenses, all going up with no end in sight. Proposed billions more just handed to whomever in the Ukraine on the horizon will make this worse, along with other policies. Having a nice watch on your wrist means nothing when you cannot make your essential living expenses. If that timepiece is financed, well that is one of those first expenses which will have to be jettisoned in belt tightening.

China lockdowns, war in Ukraine with no end in sight, frozen Russian monies, uncertainties with European economies, and general instabilities all cannot be excluded from consideration affecting Rolex internationally. Put as much weight on any and all of them as you wish.

FACT WITH SOME OPINION- For people with disposable incomes, I agree with the YouTuber, people want to get out and travel, the numbers for airlines, hotel rooms, and so forth justify this assertion. Money will flow toward experiences more so than toward watches and the like.

Rolex is in business and actively producing new watches every day. We can speculate as to the volume or this index is made more than that index. I am not calling markets on vintage or high demand indexes which are out of production. But even though Rolex has increased the MSRP on their current catalog, these watches are in production. FACT- the undeniable force of supply and demand. For any number of reasons demand was high resulting in wait lists and such, and supply was short. Rolex rolled out new indexes, and people reach deep to be the first to have that newest model, spare money, you name it. However, eventually the supply will catch the demand. Look at the watches being offered on the gray market- many, if not most, have warranty cards dated within days, weeks, or maybe months before being offered for sale. One can always claim buyer remorse, angry spouse, or a bad economic spin to get out of your brand-new unworn Rolex, but likely these were purchased with the intention of flipping. The appetite of the true buyer/wearer, flipper/speculators, and secondhand dealers will eventually have to get satisfied because you do run out of market, and people run out of money. Once you start holding inventory time is not on your side, you must keep them moving, so discounting to whatever degree is almost inevitable because you must meet your costs. Remember- a business is not a museum; things are there to buy not to just admire; so, passing on offers which keep cash coming in is still cash flow toward the business. Its great if you can be in business and have the luxury of not selling anything and keeping your doors open, let me know your secret. You can have hubris, but your inventory will be liquidated at a considerable discount as part of closing the business.

I considered numerous sources for a good triangulation and more accurate data. On May 12th I saw a large Rolex re-seller on eBay discounted most, if not all, their catalog offerings 9-15%. These discounts are still reflecting an overinflated price in my opinion, but you see the downward trend. Main point- prices are not going up, ebay has a worldwide presence, and certain guarantees to ease the sale, and activity on the listing is transparent, you can see it; you don’t see a shortage of listings and you certainly do not see Rolexes being hotly contested.

Consider this real example- the Milgauss 116400GV was not the fastest mover out there but has been one of the shooting stars starting late 2021 and into 2022, probably because of the relatively low price point and relative obscurity against the newest indexes. Speculations about it being discontinued the last several years have probably helped too. In December 2021 the MSRP was $8,300; I saw ads listing them as high as $20k, wow over 100% markup, lots of listings in the 15k range. I watched listings stalled out and going stale at $12,000. I did see a sale at $12,250.00 (approximately). So here we are now in May, 2022- five months later. MSRP now up to $9,150.00. C24 has NIB Milgauss offerings at $15K, with a sprinkling around the mid to high $13,000s here and there. There is one listed for $14,295 on Bobswatches. There is a posting on eBay at $12,592, which is about as low as I see. Talk about a range, we are talking a difference of over $7k from the observed high to low from different sources- now what does that tell you about uncertainty and how solid the “market value” of this particular index is. In this instance, it is obvious someone has picked a price point where they are comfortable moving it.

So, if I paid $12,595 on eBay, and we are assuming it is an authentic piece of course but this goes without saying. At full MSRP, NIB from an AD out the door would run me $9750, the difference of some $2840 in markup, nearly 30%. Remember about the differentials in sales tax, not to mention a modest markup paid to each set of hands this watch is passing thru, it doesn’t leave much room. Ideally, a person puts themselves on the list, walks in, pays for their watch and goes out the door, flipping it before their credit card payment is due for a quick thousand or so. The gray market dealer of course goes up from there.

In another example, consider the Submariner 124060. In December 2021 the MSRP stood at $8100. It’s now up to $8950. Most buyers from an AD would be below $10k out the door at MSRP with a reasonable allowance for taxes. Back in December 2021 I saw listings asking as high as $20k, the lowest was about $13.5k. There are some lists well over that now, approaching 24-25k; now that is optimism. You can find current listings on the low end asking the high 12k’s, with most offerings between $14k to $15k. So what does this mean? Essentially, there are listings which are expecting you to pay up over 200% markup for the privilege. But, no matter what the charts plot, if we had askings on gray market 124060’s, we still have listings in the same general price range, give or take, we had in December, right? You would expect, aside from the outliers on the high-end prices would have naturally continued to climb, but this does not seem to be the case, any gain is marginal, at best. This brings us back to supply and demand, you can ask whatever price you want, and we can all price our product within a few hundred of each other to see whose moves first, but because there are plenty of active sales around, there is no shortage; there is just too much than a prospective person is willing to pay. In December 2021 I saw a sale in the high $12000’s, suggesting that was the “just price”, the intersection where buyer and seller are good with the deal. So, if that was the “just market price” five months ago, how do we reckon the askings today? We can be reasonably assured there have been a lot of AD sold 124060’s in the last five months and plenty of those have appeared on the 2nd hand market, meaning there were still a lot of speculative buyers, not wearers cleaning the AD’s out. I am confident there is still quite a bit of stale inventory starting to sit, so again, the demand cup is likely full, but the facet keeps running.

So let’s look at some of the confounding variables here. We can reasonably presume certain listings are simply click bait listings. Some are going to frauds attempting to scam someone out of money when no such watch actually exists. There are offerings which I also deem click bait because they are high water mark prices and the offering is legit, its just that someone is in no hurry to sell and would just simply sell for the right price, but they are not motivated and would be okay if it never sold, but it would for the right price. Furthermore, we cannot exclude certain regional factors as well. Until recently it was customary to do business across state lines to avoid sales tax, again, a real net savings to the buyer. It also stands to reason that fixed and variable business costs differ from place to place, and overhead is a lot higher in some places. Of course there are underserved markets as well. If you do not have an AD in your area, then you have to deal with a reseller unless you plan to travel where there are AD's, and hope luck is on your side. Is there a new generation of enthusiasts which actually places a value on the brand of Rolex or any other brand for that matter.

So its not all doom and gloom. There will always be that high end clientele whom neither monies asked nor economies affect. There will be certain Rolexes which remain in high demand and will buck the general trends of what we discussed here. Rolexes will always be worth something, what that something is remains the debate. The other night I was in a well established brick and mortar jeweler (Not a Rolex AD) in a very hot area. They had a nice selection of pre-owned Rolexes but I felt their pricing was too high, which was not greeted too well by the salesperson, who could not have disagreed with me more- their advice- buy now before the price goes up. Well the price may go up, as a singular matter of fact, but that does not mean it will sell. In the months ahead someone will be right, and someone will be wrong.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

"Body language analysis" is pseudoscientific BS. and you're using it because of a phenomenon called confirmation bias.

Are you convinced by his response? :) For me, it is interesting, because we can see that he was caught off-guard.

See the difference with these youtuber/greys who want to reassure their audience/customers (for sure they prepared the scene off-camera): https://youtu.be/eQf1QSVSo8M?t=529

In all volatile or uncertain markets, people make bets.
In all markets, big players act not necessary like what they say on camera.

Everyday famous wall streeters or banks are telling their customers to do something, but are actually betting against them.

Nothing new...

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Goin2drt

I don’t disagree however they are not unloading these hot items either like you would think based on all these posts. I am waiting patiently ready to buy these “hot” deals folks are talking about.

That's true. They are not moving the prices and the pieces are sitting for weeks and months. Don't totally understand the rationale there, but hey, guess that's why I'm not a watch dealer!

[eijiboy]

Pepsi just hit below 24k




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

Are you convinced by his response? :) For me, it is interesting, because we can see that he was caught off-guard.

See the difference with these youtuber/greys who want to reassure their audience/customers (for sure they prepared the scene off-camera): https://youtu.be/eQf1QSVSo8M?t=529

In all volatile or uncertain markets, people make bets.
In all markets, big players act not necessary like what they say on camera.

Everyday famous wall streeters or banks are telling their customers to do something, but are actually betting against them.

Nothing new...

I don't agree with your analysis in the first place, and I'm buggered if I'm going to waste more time on speculative YT videos about watch prices.

The truth is that no-one knows where prices are going, and daily anecdotal updates are ridiculous.

Can we talk about watches, at all? Tell us about your collection.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Can we talk about watches, at all? Tell us about your collection.

That would be for another thread. This one is titled "Prices not dropping?" I think it is appropriate to keep this discussion going in this thread. Lots of good info.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Pepsi just hit below 24k




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He has been quite active the past few days. Seems to be dumping as much as he can.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by rolex16

That would be for another thread. This one is titled "Prices not dropping?" I think it is appropriate to keep this discussion going in this thread. Lots of good info.

Lots of people seemingly trying to talk down prices as well. "Panic is taking hold", etc. And the daily (hourly?) anecdotes about what an unnamed dealer is apparently offering for whatever-it-is, is just fluff.

Maybe there should be a separate "prices" sub-forum for you investment types?

[GB-man]

There’s NIB 2022 Pepsis at 23k. No idea where the real money is but it’s not 23k. It’s lower.

[thenewrick]

When I started getting into watches 3.5 years ago or so I wanted a Milgauss. It was $6,500 used in good condition and $8,000 from AD thereabouts. I passed on the used and the new because I couldn't quite afford at the time and I thought they might go lower. Now they're $12+ used and hard to get from AD. But at one point new listings were around $18k for them.

We're about halfway back to normal in a matter of 2 months pretty much. I doubt it'll go fully back to 2018 levels but it'll settle somewhere between where we are now and 2018 levels I think.

[sudo_root]

I’ll add my two cents, I have two highly sought after Rolex references, I’ve spoken to over a dozen known and highly regarded Grey’s. 90% outright refused to purchase anything period, the remainder that did offered to buy one SS sports model at 3k over MSRP (meanwhile it’s for sale on their site for the 20’s). Another all gold model at 5k UNDER MSRP.

If you are buying a watch from a grey, you’re a fool for paying asking.

/rant.

[RUSH2689]

Can we get a TL;DR for war & peace up there?

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

I don't agree with your analysis in the first place, and I'm buggered if I'm going to waste more time on speculative YT videos about watch prices.

The truth is that no-one knows where prices are going, and daily anecdotal updates are ridiculous.

Can we talk about watches, at all? Tell us about your collection.

If you feel despise for this thread and the people participating, why waste your and *our* time here? Bye.

[jarecki]

This is a good read from the Wall Street Journal, that has some uncanny relevance to what’s happening in the watch market as well. It describes what we call “the puke” in Wall Street parlance. It hasn’t happen yet in the watch market, but could happen I guess. It’s probably coming for stocks and crypto.

“When Will the Selling Stop?”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-wi...pos_5#cxrecs_s

[Goin2drt]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

I don't agree with your analysis in the first place, and I'm buggered if I'm going to waste more time on speculative YT videos about watch prices.

The truth is that no-one knows where prices are going, and daily anecdotal updates are ridiculous.

Can we talk about watches, at all? Tell us about your collection.

Maybe your time would be spent in the 100 nickname threads. This thread is actually about pricing which the people are talking about.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

If you feel despise for this thread and the people participating, why waste your and *our* time here? Bye.

I was talking about YT videos, not people in this thread.

You could change your forum handle to "Combien?"

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by RUSH2689

Can we get a TL;DR for war & peace up there?

I thought that as well.

The bits I read were very good. When I have time I will read it.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by yonexsp

Massive dump of watches for sale on Rolex & Omega forums by the leading Greys.


Never sent so many put up for sale in such a short space of time. Especially on the Omega forums.

https://www.watchrecon.com/?last_days=1

Originally Posted by huncho

omega had full cases even during the peak, not surprised that if rolexes are going through a fire sale omegas are being dumped

Does he actually mean Omega watches are being listed for sale or a lot of Rolex/Tudor/APs are listed on the 'Omegaforums for sale' forum?

[Goin2drt]

Originally Posted by johnwigan

I thought that as well.

The bits I read were very good. When I have time I will read it.

Yeah more than a paragraph and I am out.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by huncho

omega had full cases even during the peak, not surprised that if rolexes are going through a fire sale omegas are being dumped

Fire sale is somewhat of an exaggeration.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Fire sale is somewhat of an exaggeration.

lol well you would think it's one with all the threads here lately

[socalsean]

I look forward to seeing some two toned DJs and Cellinis available for sale at ADs.