2018 Sneak Peak on AP Website

[Marciano490]

Originally Posted by GB-man

That's par for the course with most AP though. Mine was 22k before the margin cut.

That's the old world, man. They're closing down ADs and moving everything to boutiques with no discounts. I inquired after my status on the steel openwork wait list and was let know that it was unlikely to happen this year and that going forward AP was only going to make hot pieces available to VIPs who had paid full price for all pieces.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by GB-man

That's par for the course with most AP though. Mine was 22k before the margin cut.

In US dollar terms, I sold mine for more than that used to watchfinder on monday, quite a bit more. Its a different ballgame across the pond i guess considering they are going to mark it up vs what they paid me and resell it. Yet you can buy them new for less in the states.

[LAFLARE]

Green ceramic?

[Soly20]

This camouflage strap looks so off! Who comes up with these ideas?

[Rickn]

The camo is for when the ting goes skrrrrrraaa pap pap ka ka ka skidiki.

[tng11]

Hong Kong cut from 12 ADs earlier this year to 6, which is a huge cut for a market that large. I was told that a new condition is any AD who wants to continue to carry AP, must have it in a separate standalone "boutique-like" setup. Despite that, only the main company-owned boutique gets the 15202s, openworks, etc. And of course, the main boutique doesn't do discounts, or only does a very small amount on less popular pieces.

[kunlun]

So, under the boutique-only model, where do the unsold watches go? Surely the gray market will continue.

[Marciano490]

Originally Posted by kunlun

So, under the boutique-only model, where do the unsold watches go? Surely the gray market will continue.

No, they're sold/bundled with the popular models. The hot models are used as prods to move the colder pieces. After that, sure, they go to greys, so if you want a discount on that steel millenary, I guess it'll still be there.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by kunlun

So, under the boutique-only model, where do the unsold watches go? Surely the gray market will continue.

A boutique isnt under the same pressure to move inventory as an AD since its owned by the brand. Their margins are higher and they make more money per watch since there is no AD middle man. Boutiques cant heavily discount as AP in switzerland can see their books unlike and AD so it will affect the grey market no doubt.

Unsold watches would probably sit at the boutique and given enough time would probably go back to AP for "recycling". I doubt they will go out the back door at 40% off. A boutique system is 100% about control and AP would be the ones making those decisions not an independent AD.

[GB-man]

In my opinion if AP wants to continue to sell as many watches in the US as they are today then either cut prices or let the discounting continue.

I frequent the boutiques and don’t see them chock full of customers.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by GB-man

In my opinion if AP wants to continue to sell as many watches in the US as they are today then either cut prices or let the discounting continue.

I frequent the boutiques and don’t see them chock full of customers.

I think they should just sell them to markets where the demand is. Its not the US quite frankly and AP isnt as big of a thing. Their distribution isn't ideal as their retail pricing is much more acceptable in areas with stronger demand. The UK has had 3 retail price increases due to the pound falling so in local currency the brits are paying way more than two years ago and they still buy them. The US hasn't had an increase and only buy at 20% discount or more.

[Marciano490]

Here's what's confusing to me: wouldn't these companies have sophisticated enough analytics to predict the demand for models after a few years? There's no reason why AP should be producing too many millenaries per year or Patek too many calatravas or ACs, and certainly no reason to overproduce grand complications. I imagine those markets and sales data are very stable.

So, instead of continuing to overproduce disfavored models and then having to use hot models as a prod to move that merchandise, wouldn't the smarter business move be to more carefully tailor the production of the "cold" models, bulk up the production of the hot models and sell them as they're in demand?

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Marciano490

Here's what's confusing to me: wouldn't these companies have sophisticated enough analytics to predict the demand for models after a few years? There's no reason why AP should be producing too many millenaries per year or Patek too many calatravas or ACs, and certainly no reason to overproduce grand complications. I imagine those markets and sales data are very stable.

So, instead of continuing to overproduce disfavored models and then having to use hot models as a prod to move that merchandise, wouldn't the smarter business move be to more carefully tailor the production of the "cold" models, bulk up the production of the hot models and sell them as they're in demand?

Ive been saying that forever with AP. It makes no sense to me.

With Patek, its a little different as they are less of a sports watch company and dress pieces move slower and i dont think they want to be sports watch heavy. AP is sports watches. A millenary is in between dress and sports, but i have never once seen a JA in and AD ever. So they are sports watches.

Why they pump out funky colors and 37mm RO's that dont sell while neglecting pieces that have waitlists a mile long is weird. Why produce so many 15450's but not 15400's for example. Its the same movement. With Patek its grand comps or PC's which are different movements and not interchangeable. AP's core is the 3120 and they can stick that into many different cases across the RO and ROO lineup. Their dial production also doesnt match demand. Everyone wants the new blue dial ROC but they dont make that dial in the largest numbers. why? Ive seen the other two dials many times and won't buy them, i actually would have bought blue if an AD had one.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

I think they should just sell them to markets where the demand is. Its not the US quite frankly and AP isnt as big of a thing. Their distribution isn't ideal as their retail pricing is much more acceptable in areas with stronger demand. The UK has had 3 retail price increases due to the pound falling so in local currency the brits are paying way more than two years ago and they still buy them. The US hasn't had an increase and only buy at 20% discount or more.

It will be a cold day in hell before AP abandons the US market

Frankly I don't think they can pull off a boutique only model like say LV. If they could just run a tighter ship like rolex that would be a start. Hell rolex sells what 20x as many watches and has better control of their distribution.

[benlee]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

Ive been saying that forever with AP. It makes no sense to me.

With Patek, its a little different as they are less of a sports watch company and dress pieces move slower and i dont think they want to be sports watch heavy. AP is sports watches. A millenary is in between dress and sports, but i have never once seen a JA in and AD ever. So they are sports watches.

Why they pump out funky colors and 37mm RO's that dont sell while neglecting pieces that have waitlists a mile long is weird. Why produce so many 15450's but not 15400's for example. Its the same movement. With Patek its grand comps or PC's which are different movements and not interchangeable. AP's core is the 3120 and they can stick that into many different cases across the RO and ROO lineup. Their dial production also doesnt match demand. Everyone wants the new blue dial ROC but they dont make that dial in the largest numbers. why? Ive seen the other two dials many times and won't buy them, i actually would have bought blue if an AD had one.

To maintain exclusivity? By making fewer pieces available for selected popular references, they indirectly drive even higher demand and desirability for them and raise the brand profile. Basically, it's a marketing strategy they copied from Patek. With huge margins, AP doesn't need to sell a lot to cover cost and as a family business, they don't need to show profitability figures like Richemont or Swatch group to answer to shareholders either, and it's fine for them to make more of the less popular pieces that takes a longer time to sell ( I am sure they don't need the cashflow as well ). So actually this makes a lot of sense and I guess it will continue for some time, baring any external factors.

[Marciano490]

Originally Posted by benlee

To maintain exclusivity? By making fewer pieces available for selected popular references, they indirectly drive even higher demand and desirability for them and raise the brand profile. Basically, it's a marketing strategy they copied from Patek. With huge margins, AP doesn't need to sell a lot to cover cost and as a family business, they don't need to show profitability figures like Richemont or Swatch group to answer to shareholders either, and it's fine for them to make more of the less popular pieces that takes a longer time to sell ( I am sure they don't need the cashflow as well ). So actually this makes a lot of sense and I guess it will continue for some time, baring any external factors.

I disagree. You can have a brand like Mille that is all about exclusivity, but you can't have exclusivity within a brand that also has low barriers to entry. The overall prestige of Audemars isn't enhanced because the openwork or ceramic perpetual is hot right now. That doesn't carry over to people buying ROO 44s or 15400s or Millenaries.

Just like, BMW and Mercedes lost brand lustre when they started making models available for 30k.

If anything, it's alienating to the existing customer base to draw segments within people who have been buying from you for years. I get the psychological impulse to want a watch because you can't have it or because everyone else wants it - and I went through that with the 5711 - but at a certain point you wake up, realize you're being disrespected by sales people at a brand you've spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on, and stop letting some company play games with you.

[benlee]

Originally Posted by Marciano490

I disagree. You can have a brand like Mille that is all about exclusivity, but you can't have exclusivity within a brand that also has low barriers to entry. The overall prestige of Audemars isn't enhanced because the openwork or ceramic perpetual is hot right now. That doesn't carry over to people buying ROO 44s or 15400s or Millenaries.

Just like, BMW and Mercedes lost brand lustre when they started making models available for 30k.

If anything, it's alienating to the existing customer base to draw segments within people who have been buying from you for years. I get the psychological impulse to want a watch because you can't have it or because everyone else wants it - and I went through that with the 5711 - but at a certain point you wake up, realize you're being disrespected by sales people at a brand you've spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on, and stop letting some company play games with you.

Oh it most certainly does I think. All top brands have these hard to get desirable models. AP, PP, RM and to a certain degree even Rolex ( C-Daytona ),are prominent examples. By limiting supply on selected models, they further inflate demand and makes the brand seems more exclusive and desirable overall, kind of like a tail-coat effect. Or else, what is your explanation that these brands are pursuing this course of action? Or put it this way, when was the last time we heard about Breguet or IWC or Omega having a long waiting list? But again, these brands are corporations so immediate profits is probably more important than long term brand equity.

As for the "low barrier price point", it's all relative. Of course AP watches have much lower entry price than say RM of course, but they are on a different bracket and it's also by no means cheap to a lot of people.

Actually, I personally disliked all these "games" the brands played and watch collecting eventually is going to descend to become more like buying stocks and shares, where people look at a timepiece potential "investment value" vs it's horological merit as consideration for purchase. Actually it is already happening now and I am sometimes guilty of this also. Unfortunately, I think this trend is going to stay with us for a while.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Marciano490

Here's what's confusing to me: wouldn't these companies have sophisticated enough analytics to predict the demand for models after a few years? There's no reason why AP should be producing too many millenaries per year or Patek too many calatravas or ACs, and certainly no reason to overproduce grand complications. I imagine those markets and sales data are very stable.

So, instead of continuing to overproduce disfavored models and then having to use hot models as a prod to move that merchandise, wouldn't the smarter business move be to more carefully tailor the production of the "cold" models, bulk up the production of the hot models and sell them as they're in demand?

I think this will happen and with Rolex too as the huge demand for popular SS watches is now un-ignorable and the windows and windows of unsold DJs that desecrate the flagship expensive stores looks utterly ridiculous, and the brand then becomes laughable in the real world even if in the cyber world they are smashing it like never before.

[Marciano490]

Originally Posted by AK797

I think this will happen and with Rolex too as the huge demand for popular SS watches is now un-ignorable and the windows and windows of unsold DJs that desecrate the flagship expensive stores looks utterly ridiculous, and the brand then becomes laughable in the real world even if in the cyber world they are smashing it like never before.

I stopped in Wempe on 5th a couple weeks ago on my way to dinner to say hi to a friend who works there. Their Rolex display cases were half empty. She asked me if they had anything in I wanted. I pointed to all the empty slots/cushions and said, "see each one of those? That represents a Rolex I want that you don't have." It was like some steel watch ghost town.

[AK797]

Green watches are always a tough sell when they are first released, the LVc was no different but is an absolute darling now, however this one I'm not feeling at all.

[Marciano490]

I imagine the prestige resounds on the owner of the rare model, not the brand. Rolex isn’t more prestigious because Daytona’s are backordered.

I don’t always assume that companies are rational or smart. I think the idea is to use the hot pieces as prods or lures or rewards, but I’d imagine they’d make more money short and long term and alienate fewer customers by just cutting the crap models and making more of the good stuff.

[GB-man]

Respect to you all but I’m laughing out loud over here.

Rolex started this game not Patek and certainly not AP.

They are trying to mimic Rolex treatment of the Daytona I don’t know how you could ignore that.

And yes, the Rolex Daytona strategy makes Rolex more prestigious. This strategy works to some degree but less for Patek and AP in that order.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Respect to you all but I’m laughing out loud over here.

Rolex started this game not Patek and certainly not AP.

They are trying to mimic Rolex treatment of the Daytona I don’t know how you could ignore that.

And yes, the Rolex Daytona strategy makes Rolex more prestigious. This strategy works to some degree but less for Patek and AP in that order.

i totally agree with that generally.

To me though it makes Rolex lame. Its a mass produced watch where as the others are not. I actually give Patek or AP much more of a pass because of lack of availability. In Rolex's case its a much more calculated and artificial scarcity based on production volume alone. They did start it though.

[Urooj]

Fugly! RIP AP has the lost plot...from avant garde aesthetics and design essence handingover their mainstay to a child with a box of crayons...it’s my favourite brand I’m devastated with this effort...

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Urooj

Fugly! RIP AP has the lost plot...from avant garde aesthetics and design essence handingover their mainstay to a child with a box of crayons...it’s my favourite brand I’m devastated with this effort...

im sure they are going to release something nice in the next couple of days and we will be happy.

Their direction in general though isn't good, for me at least with all the loud colors of the past few years. They are still going to release watches i like though. Im confident in that.

[GB-man]

My AP guy already had 3 pre-orders the night of the preview. They are going to sell these no problem.

[SC11]

Originally Posted by GB-man

My AP guy already had 3 pre-orders the night of the preview. They are going to sell these no problem.

Oh no you caught me out

[AK797]

I understand, as Thierry has stated most (in)eloquently, that AP and PP do not want to become one or two watch companies and so they want to maintain as broad a range as possible but the market dynamics have changed so startlingly in the last year that production allocation changes have to be made, even for Rolex. The current stock market vibe of watches can't continue, or all these watches will just be viewed as trade-able commodities, even by most of the forums. Greed, for lack of a better word, always wins.

[2nastie]

Not sure if anyone else saw this on IG stories (via AP profile), they had a quick "preview" with Lebron James being the spokes person for the ROO 25th Anniversary.

[Pocosso]

Does it means no ROC in-house movement?