Rolex availability and gray market

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by jlovda

After reading these comments you can get the feeling DateJusts are one step above Timex's in desirability.

If you “desire” to spend $7k on a Timex, be my guest.

[milgauss1349]

For us it only this only helps encourage us to the gray market for those simple folk who are buying a Rolex to have a Rolex they likely don’t know of the gray market or are unwilling to access it and therefore will wait.
It doesn’t help that Rolex has been withdrawing smaller retailers from being ADs and leaving them with just Tudor.


114300 Rolex Oyster Perpetual 39mm
79280 Tudor Tiger Prince

[jlovda]

Originally Posted by pickettt

If you “desire” to spend $7k on a Timex, be my guest.

It seems no one here can understand a joke or hyperbole.

[ian.thomas]

Originally Posted by pickettt

“SS”, you say?

I should have put "... 904L Stainless Steel Storage".

[ian.thomas]

Originally Posted by jlovda

It seems no one here can understand a joke or hyperbole.

I can!

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by ian.thomas

I should have put "... 904L Stainless Steel Storage".

I thought it looked like the storage area at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark......

[ian.thomas]

Originally Posted by pickettt

I thought it looked like the storage area at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark.

It is.

It was a follow-up to my comment on page one, "I like to think Rolex has an end-of-Indiana Jones size warehouse full of SS watches ... all boxed up and sitting right next to the Ark of the Covenant."

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by ian.thomas

It is.

and the Swiss are known to hold stuff for you know who!

[Bigblu10]

This thread definitely deserves a huge bowl of popcorn and a cold Coke!

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by ian.thomas

It is.

It was a follow-up to my comment on page one, "I like to think Rolex has an end-of-Indiana Jones size warehouse full of SS watches ... all boxed up and sitting right next to the Ark of the Covenant."

Ah, I hadn’t seen that.

[lawrence1]

Originally Posted by jsausley

My point was to that it's only 1 sale regardless.

1 reseller + 0 end user = 1 sale

0 reseller + 1 end user = 1 sale

Regardless of WHO Rolex sells the watch to, it's 1 sale for a Rolex AD. And by encouraging this scarcity, both the reseller and the end user are probably posting all over TRF, Reddit, Watchuseek, Facebook and Instagram about how they got lucky finding this watch, which further drives demand and makes other people want the watch as well. I'm not talking about real PRE-OWNED watches that come back up for sale, I'm talking about BNIB watches that are selling for OVER retail.

So my point is that if Rolex can only sell one watch to the end user above, it actually makes MORE sense if it goes to the reseller because they're getting free advertising out of it which will probably make more customers long term.

Finally, in your example of yourself being a customer who will NOT buy from a reseller, if you really want a Rolex (and not an Omega or some other brand) you're just going to jump on the list anyway and buy two years later. If you decide not to buy it in two years when it's finally offered to you, Rolex has certainly sold a dozen or more in that timeframe to resellers who are doing advertisement work for them.

THIS is the current model. What it does is allow Rolex to get more bang-for-their-buck while keeping demand high and making sure that watches move fast and for full retail. Increasing supply to meet the demand will at best move the same number of watches in a shorter timeframe, but at worst diminish brand value by removing most of the scarcity and demand created by the social media frenzy I'm talking about above.

As someone in business, I'm envious of the Rolex situation. If I had items that my customers could NOT get elsewhere (meaning another primary source), and I had people waiting in line to snap them up, and they were going so crazy for them that they are willing to buy secondhand from other resellers for 50% markup or more, I'd be happy as a lark.



Many people do buy from gray market dealers. When I see a BLNR come up for sale in one of the many watch trading Facebook groups, it gets snatched up within an hour as long as it's not outrageously priced (like MORE than on C24). Just today I saw one posted for $10,500, 2015 warranty card, well used, with desk diving scratches, that didn't even last 15 minutes.



I don't buy that. The instant gratification crowd are the ones snapping up the watches on secondhand market and are the ones driving up the price. It's the old farts like you AND me with financial responsibility in mind that are willing to wait 6 months to 2 years for an AD to get it, so we can save a few hundred dollars.

I also don't believe that many people will get tired of waiting and switch brands. Rolex is in the position of having the most well-known, valuable brand in the watch industry with a hundred years of excellent marketing. No other brand is going to jump overnight and take their sales. Yes, this shortage may cause Omega, TAG Heuer and on the upper echelon, Audemars Piguet to sell more watches on the short term -- but I guarantee you that if you call one of these BLNR buyers back next year, even if he has already bought a ceramic Speedmaster Professional Purple Side of the Neptune, he WILL still buy that BLNR.



This is basically restating what I said before but the tl,dr is:

I believe that people who want a Rolex NOW will be willing to pay more on gray market for them (I know several people locally who bought from Bob's Watches, Jomashop or C24 recently for Rolex watches). If they aren't willing to pay more on gray market they will either wait, or go buy something else. But my whole argument is that the number who "go buy something else" is less than the number of NEW buyers that SCARCITY has brought into the Rolex market.

Agree to disagree. There is no doubt in my mind Rolex is losing out on a ton of sales due to these games. There are nu guarantees that these buys will wait for months and years to buy these watches. They are also alienating loyal Rolex buyers in the process. The proof is in the number of threads you can see on this very site. Also, these new buyers that you claim are coming in by the boatloads .... what are they buying? They are walking into ADs across the world and getting laughed right out, because there is nothing desirable to sell them, no inventory. Then they go look at other brands, and likely buy something else. These new guys are surely not waiting several months or years to buy their first Rolex. Only hardcore Rolex fanboys do that. Anyway ... agree to disagree. Difference of opinion. moving on.

[R!$]

Originally Posted by lawrence1

Agree to disagree. There is no doubt in my mind Rolex is losing out on a ton of sales due to these games. There are nu guarantees that these buys will wait for months and years to buy these watches. They are also alienating loyal Rolex buyers in the process. The proof is in the number of threads you can see on this very site. Also, these new buyers that you claim are coming in by the boatloads .... what are they buying? They are walking into ADs across the world and getting laughed right out, because there is nothing desirable to sell them, no inventory. Then they go look at other brands, and likely buy something else. These new guys are surely not waiting several months or years to buy their first Rolex. Only hardcore Rolex fanboys do that. Anyway ... agree to disagree. Difference of opinion. moving on.

Rolex is catering to its "fanboys". Thats a big enough market

[Ljung]

Originally Posted by R!$

Rolex is catering to its "fanboys". Thats a big enough market

Fanboys and fangals, actually.

More and more ladies wearing Rolex sports models.

Full range of smaller size models available at AD

[GerardoG]

Fun fact: just had a VERY interesting meeting. Guess how are AD sales doing?

Think double digits (%). Yes, HIGHER.

[Brazicano]

Sales are up 30 percent. There’s not enough watches to go around that’s all it is.

[lawrence1]

So are other watch makers and everything else in the luxury goods marketplace. So what?

Sales would be even higher if the actually produced more watches that people want to buy and less of the stuff that collects dust.

[penguinrolex]

Originally Posted by Brazicano

Sales are up 30 percent. There’s not enough watches to go around that’s all it is.

But are "rolexes to customers" up 30%?
I'll bet they aren't. I'll bet inventory is accumulating in the Grey market and in speculator's safety deposit boxes. Private collectors buying more inventory than they want so they can buy a rare - they'll sell the unwanted inventory below retail. Lol it's like the limited edition booster packs for Magic the Gathering.

[Texasjim]

Originally Posted by meyers

Rolex doesn't give a damn about me, or any of us, or what we think of their business model. And frankly, I respect them for that

We need like buttons on this site! Yuuuussss, and on point!

[blackhawks-fan]

Originally Posted by tbonesteak

Shortage? First I'm hearing about it.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by penguinrolex

But are "rolexes to customers" up 30%?
I'll bet they aren't. I'll bet inventory is accumulating in the Grey market and in speculator's safety deposit boxes. Private collectors buying more inventory than they want so they can buy a rare - they'll sell the unwanted inventory below retail. Lol it's like the limited edition booster packs for Magic the Gathering.

the watch still gets sold by Rolex via an AD. Im sure they don't care if it goes to a collectors vault or a "customer"

In fact Rolex probably prefers it if anything. They try to make the watches disappear themselves to make them look rare, and when people hide them at the bank vault it furthers the perception of scarcity.

[Juantxo]

Thank you all for your comments and observations. Manufacturers such as Rolex must contemplate building an immense monument to the power of the Internet to exacerbate consumerism and unwarranted needs.

[05carbondrz]

Originally Posted by jsausley

I feel like a lot of people don't understand the effects of what is going on here.

The shortage is driving demand. The 6 months to 6 year waitlist is pushing exclusivity which makes these watches desirable.

Yes, there are some customers who would buy a watch same day that can't because it's unavailable. But they're either going to go gray market or get their name on a list. Very few Rolex buyers are moving to other brands. We hear about it here but this is the vocal minority. Most people want a Rolex that will retain value and be noticed by others, not an Omega that is worth 60% of retail and will fly under the radar.

Right now Rolex literally sells every single stainless watch they ship, pretty much instantly. There is no other market, short of Ferrari or Hermes Birkin, that moves product in this way. If these watches were not scarce they would sit on AD shelves for days or weeks and even sometimes be offered at a discount.

There are only two things that could hurt Rolex long term at this point: a global market recession, which would lead to a large number of preowned watches coming online and to the discounting of the brand, and therefore watches will start to sit in AD windows because preowned ones are cheaper, or, another brand stealing some of Rolex's market. That doesn't happen overnight. No one knows, outside of watch circles and the luxury market, what an Audemars Piguet or a Patek is. Yes, I know these are scarce and command above retail too, but you're talking about a watch reference that is made in the hundreds of units per year, not tens of thousands like a Submariner.

You forgot Supreme,People pay top Dollar and wait in huge lines for it with a HUGE Grey Market.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by GerardoG

Fun fact: just had a VERY interesting meeting. Guess how are AD sales doing?

Think double digits (%). Yes, HIGHER.

I mean the plan was all along to sell as many DJ41 and new 36s as possible. And Explorer 2s. Allowing, a slow trickle of Professional models until the Sub65 update and until 3285 production is full steam ahead.

[jsausley]

Originally Posted by 05carbondrz

You forgot Supreme,People pay top Dollar and wait in huge lines for it with a HUGE Grey Market.

Yeah, that's true, I've heard about them a bit. Is that mostly young people?

[JR16]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

they have plenty of everything in the preowned section

I’ve seen it and they sure do!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[emtee]

Originally Posted by penguinrolex

Yep. This is the first step of channel management to follow when middlemen are taking over your sales channels: tell your retailers not to sell to a middleman/wholesaler/speculator and start inspecting what they appear to be doing.
Let's say 'grey' is anyone who is hoping to resell or trade this in the near future at a higher price. This includes grey dealers, middlemen who are buying from the AD and then selling to a grey, and speculators who only bought the watch BECAUSE they see price increases AND they intend to flip it to a grey dealer, soon.

If all the available inventory is sitting in AD display cases, Rolex can ask their ADs "how much inventory do you have?" and make their production and pricing decisions based on good information.

When so many watches go to grey market, Rolex doesn't know how much went to customers and how much is tied up in the grey market as inventory. They can't make accurate production and pricing decisions. They're afraid to increase production and accidentally flood the market.


When the watches are sold from an AD, Rolex inspectors can make sure the brand is properly represented. Clean space, nice suits, good cases, champagne when you buy, no scratch and dent specials.
When the watches all go grey, Rolex loses control over their brand image. Customer experience is "you buy SS rolex from the back of a van, and you're never completely sure it's authentic. the box is scratched up, the watch is gummy because it sat for six months waiting for the AD to release the warranty papers." This affects the value of their brand.

Fun example from a different industry of why it's bad to let someone else take over your distribution channel: Pepsi introduced Doritos into a country. Wholesalers started buying ALL the doritos bags. Prices went up, so more wholesalers wanted to buy them. Wholesalers just traded the bags back and forth, because having a bag increases the value of your inventory. If a customer finds a bag in a store, it's old and beat up and they are unlikely to buy it. If they do buy it, they won't buy a second bag of doritos. If pepsi just ships a ton of doritos...the wholesalers will flood the market with their old bags and then start grabbing new bags.


So one perspective is that Rolex is selling every SS they make...
but the problem is they are no longer driving the car. They can't turn (increase/decrease production) and they can't react to icy conditions (recession, change of fashion trends) because they don't know the right price and production to reach END customers and they aren't in control of their image anymore.



haha yes i'm spending way too much effort to avoid doing work today

Very interesting post

[exador]

Kiwi author pens children’s book “The Wonky Donkey”. Retails for $7.99 and is moderately successful.

YouTube clip of Scottish Granny reading the book to her grandson goes viral with over 3 million views.
https://youtu.be/gbsZohEMn38

Wonky Donkey becomes #1 on the Amazon Best Seller list. Publisher scrambling to keep up with demand. Waiting lists of 2 months. Used copies appear on eBay for up to $200.

Sound familiar?

[XtraCrispy]

Here's my little tidbit...

I usually stop in my AD once a month just to look at all the shiny Rolex's sitting in the case and get mine cleaned - no Sub's or Daytona's of course. The last time I was there, I was told the current wait time for a Sub was 6 months (I didn't ask if that was for any Sub model) and 2 years for a Daytona. He told me Rolex has cut back on production. I asked why but he did not have a reason.

[mg Barcelona]

3 hours ago I walked into an AD and asked for a 114060. They had one and I pick it up Friday after the funds have transferred. That said, I did ask if they had a BLNR and they said no. Sometimes I wonder about this availability thing.

[blackhawks-fan]

Originally Posted by ian.thomas

I can!

I found the humor in the comment.