ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
22 August 2019, 12:24 PM | #61 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Land of the Free
Posts: 506
|
|
22 August 2019, 01:17 PM | #62 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jul 2007
Real Name: R.J.
Location: Canada
Posts: 1,546
|
Quote:
The B-to-B sales is something that I find very interesting - I think the "pump and dump" is being orchestrated by the grey market - you have to wonder how many are getting to the end consumer at these prices...if at all.. some of the "sold" watches in the FS could be shill sales - or non-sales then relisted with the effort to give the impression that they are selling, and make you think that you may "miss out" if you don't jump at this one... the internet and social media have driven the market, and Grey dealers were the first to manipulate social media / forums/ internet - leaving brands themselves struggling to establish online presence. So the proficient Greys are well positioned to drive up the Hype... If you don't think taht grey dealers are operating under a variety of accounts, you are kidding yourself... One of the things that these models have offered was "social currency" aka "bragging rights" with a world forum to which you can now brag... instead of previously - you would buy a watch and exactly 0 people you know would care... but what I'm seeing now, is every other IG post, 'incoming' thread, and FS thread is one of these "hot Models" The familiarity and frequency is making them less valuable as "social currency".. people who are buying without real desire, and only with the idea to "turn a quick profit" might get nervous when something that they couldn't afford doesn't immediately sell... you can convince yourself that this BLNR could sell for 20k because of the istings on Chrono24, but good luck adding your sale to the pile (which was pointed out earlier include hundreds of this same model) furthermore, people looking to brag might find it less worth bragging about when "everyone" seems to have them... and more stories get out about people getting them at their AD at retail (many times with little-no effort) will make people less willing to admit to paying premiums...or find it less brag-worthy... I don't think that these prices are the new normal ... when there is too much of a discrepancy between asking price and intrinsic value, and whenever FOMO is a factor, it is a bubble doomed to burst. I do find the speculation threads to be fairly interesting and entertaining lately ... but as a watch collector and genuine lover of watches, I fear for the aftermath... You can see the industry starting to react and now start to focus strategy on secondary market value (with more endless limited editions) that I worry that more budget will be diverted to marketing, and less to actual watch making research and development. when all Rolex has to do is change half of a bezel colour, and people lose their shit... who the hell needs innovation, hand decorated movements, perpetual calendars, enhanced precision, longer power reserves, guilloche, and repetition de minutes?
__________________
@RJKAMA on Instagram |
|
22 August 2019, 01:45 PM | #63 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Real Name: Steven
Location: Glocal
Posts: 21,180
|
Quote:
__________________
__________________ ----> Was Great Seeing Everyone At The TRF December 9 Tampa Meetup <---- https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=968133 Love timepieces and want to become a Watchmaker? Rolex has a sensational school. www.RolexWatchmakingTrainingCenter.com/ Sent from my Etch A Sketch using String Theory. |
|
22 August 2019, 01:48 PM | #64 |
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: .
Posts: 6,692
|
That is EXACTLY what happens. Been happening for ages to create a false sense of urgency to the buyer like you said. Its a well known tactic
|
22 August 2019, 03:01 PM | #65 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jun 2015
Real Name: BMF
Location: Tennessee USA
Watch: FPJ UTC
Posts: 2,263
|
Quote:
I understand the desire for prices to drop and I'm not advocating against. But it appears there are more than a few hoping for this inevitable drop that aren't really seeing the true market picture. Supply is nowhere near demand and a lot of people are willing to pay a significant premium. Prices won't take any appreciable hits until the economy and markets falter. |
|
22 August 2019, 03:26 PM | #66 |
Banned
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Moon
Watch: Swiss
Posts: 2,270
|
They're dropping in Asia, but not Europe or North America. You're merely at the wrong side of the world.
Prices have dropped 10-15% for some models. They aren't seeing the "gold rush" attitude in terms of pricehike anymore. |
22 August 2019, 07:01 PM | #67 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: ByDawns Earlylite
Watch: 16800
Posts: 3,580
|
This use to be a really fun place to spend time with interesting people.
|
22 August 2019, 07:22 PM | #68 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Earth
Posts: 1,550
|
I don't see price declines on most models from what I see, Hulk is where it was a month ago, same for BLRO, white 500c might have gone down a bit, but not significantly so. The only thing that went down significantly is BLNRj, which makes sense. Novelty is wearing off and Rolex released a truckload of them, so it is only logical it went down, but I don't see it going down much more.
|
22 August 2019, 07:26 PM | #69 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2014
Real Name: Pat
Location: Boston, MA
Watch: 216570, 126600
Posts: 468
|
|
22 August 2019, 08:00 PM | #70 | |
Banned
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,600
|
Quote:
|
|
22 August 2019, 08:19 PM | #71 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: New York
Posts: 1,038
|
|
22 August 2019, 08:32 PM | #72 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2018
Real Name: Larry
Location: Finger Lakes
Posts: 6,007
|
I think there are some interesting people here, and I sure have learned a whole bunch. This thread and its ilk doesn't fit that description. Speculation about speculation makes WISs go blind, fyi.
|
22 August 2019, 09:03 PM | #73 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: US
Posts: 3,878
|
Nice to see a new thread on the forum, I thought this was going to be about "I inherited a Rolex from my Grandfather", now that is interesting stuff. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
|
22 August 2019, 09:52 PM | #74 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2009
Real Name: Brian
Location: Northern Virginia
Watch: One of Not Many
Posts: 17,892
|
Agreed
__________________
IWC Portugieser 7 Day, Omega Seamaster SMP300m, Vacheron Constantin Traditionnelle Complete Calendar, Glashutte PanoInverse, Glashutte SeaQ Panorama Date, Omega Aqua Terra 150, Omega CK 859, Omega Speedmaster 3861 Moonwatch, Breitling Superocean Steelfish, JLC Atmos Transparent Clock |
22 August 2019, 11:16 PM | #75 | ||
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Real Name: Steven
Location: Glocal
Posts: 21,180
|
Quote:
Quote:
The admins and mods need to find a way to migrate the noise level to a new section for price, speculation, etc
__________________
__________________ ----> Was Great Seeing Everyone At The TRF December 9 Tampa Meetup <---- https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=968133 Love timepieces and want to become a Watchmaker? Rolex has a sensational school. www.RolexWatchmakingTrainingCenter.com/ Sent from my Etch A Sketch using String Theory. |
||
22 August 2019, 11:17 PM | #76 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2009
Real Name: Brian
Location: Northern Virginia
Watch: One of Not Many
Posts: 17,892
|
Again, agreed
__________________
IWC Portugieser 7 Day, Omega Seamaster SMP300m, Vacheron Constantin Traditionnelle Complete Calendar, Glashutte PanoInverse, Glashutte SeaQ Panorama Date, Omega Aqua Terra 150, Omega CK 859, Omega Speedmaster 3861 Moonwatch, Breitling Superocean Steelfish, JLC Atmos Transparent Clock |
22 August 2019, 11:22 PM | #77 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Apr 2018
Real Name: Harry
Location: England
Posts: 10,673
|
I'll take your "Price Speculation" section and raise you an "Is It Safe Section". (I'll keep the "WRUW" section, the "Incoming" section and the "Show Us Your Modified Rolex" section up my sleeve for now).
|
23 August 2019, 02:06 AM | #78 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Middle America
Posts: 1,085
|
|
23 August 2019, 02:08 AM | #79 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Middle America
Posts: 1,085
|
Quote:
|
|
23 August 2019, 02:23 AM | #80 | |
Banned
Join Date: May 2013
Real Name: Robear
Location: Come and Take It!
Watch: 126710 BLRO
Posts: 1,632
|
Quote:
|
|
23 August 2019, 02:23 AM | #81 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Land of the Free
Posts: 506
|
This topic is so rampant because it’s ruining people’s outlook on the hobby. Arguably the most important topic at hand.
What’s to talk about if you can’t get anything? |
24 August 2019, 01:35 AM | #82 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Florida
Posts: 1,124
|
Quote:
Grief Stage 1 (Denial): "Prices aren't going to go down... Look at these Auctions!" Grief Stage 2 (Anger): (<~~~ You are about to enter this stage.) I await your "F*** the GREYS! Greedy Hoarders!" type posts. Grief Stage 3 (Bargaining): Next will be the "You know, the extra $12k I paid wasn't so bad, I did get to enjoy the watch for a Year before anyone else who waited and paid MSRP." Grief Stage 4 (Depression): Followed by "I can't believe I paid so much. I don't even like wearing it. It is a constant reminder of a $12k void." Grief Stage 5 (Acceptance): Finally "I know I'll never recoup the cost, but I love it anyway and one day, it will be my Son's watch."
__________________
IG@Construction_Time --- 1986 DD 18038 --- 1992 YM 16628 --- 2015 116600 SD4K --- SBDX001 MM300 --- 2009 Omega Ploprof White --- 2010 Omega LE LMPO |
|
24 August 2019, 01:40 AM | #83 | |
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Dec 2009
Real Name: The Mystro ;)
Location: Central Pa.
Posts: 15,511
|
Quote:
|
|
24 August 2019, 01:54 AM | #84 | |
Banned
Join Date: May 2014
Real Name: Mike
Location: BOS
Watch: 16710;14060;214270
Posts: 6,375
|
Quote:
|
|
24 August 2019, 03:04 AM | #85 | |
Banned
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Vienna
Posts: 1,299
|
Strong results, yes
https://www.sothebys.com/buy/25e5416...e-1ba10a9dfc69 Quote:
|
|
24 August 2019, 03:28 AM | #86 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2016
Real Name: Steve
Location: UK
Posts: 198
|
I look forward to "investors" and anyone who bought to make a profit taking a bath whilst I collect a BLRO at retail.
|
24 August 2019, 03:32 AM | #87 |
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: Tokyo
Watch: SD43,PAM1616,Hulk
Posts: 3,567
|
batgirl is now selling at hkd 115,000. really dropping fast!
|
24 August 2019, 04:29 AM | #88 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: New Jersey
Watch: PP 5712/1A
Posts: 519
|
It's true that the board used to be filled with happy incoming pics and Rolex minutiae (which I love) but the crazy market factors currently at play are interesting in their own right and do merit examination and discussion. People who don't find this interesting should just not open the thread instead of complaining...
Prices of some models are certainly going to drop, and likely soon. BLRO comes immediately to mind. I doubt though that we will see a synchronized price reduction across all SS watches as some seem to think. To suggest a "global recession" will be the catalyst for a price drop is to more or less say that economic boom is the primary driver of increased SS prices and I don't believe that. SS popularity is primarily based on changing dress codes for work and desire for status in a less formal work environment. That's not going anywhere, and scarce models are going to command a healthy premium for a long time. Consequently, any model that becomes less scarce will see a corresponding drop in price. |
24 August 2019, 06:12 AM | #89 |
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: EU
Posts: 806
|
I brought this up on the thread "prices are dropping hard", but I believe the stock of BLRO and BLNR is getting larger by the day and is moving really slow per chrono24. I have added the cheapest listings of these 2 references to my notepad about 10 weeks ago and they are still there - unsold.
Not sure if the prices will drop hard or not, but I believe they will melt considerably in the next 12 months as we see more BLRO and BLNR hitting the AD. People with the money willing to pay 100% premium probably bought it by now. Also, my local AD quoted me 5 year waiting time for the BLRO and when I have visited him 2 weeks ago he advised it will be around 2 years now ... |
24 August 2019, 07:01 AM | #90 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: California
Posts: 518
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|
*Banners
Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.