Put one watch away for 20 years...

[007_Omega]

Originally Posted by schoolboy

How do you double your money every 7 years?

Is that practical?

I’ve been meaning to look into the market but haven’t yet :(


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Yes, generally a successful rate of return is doubling your money every 7 years in the market. You want to hit a 10% ROI every year and if you calculate that based on your initial investment it should roughly double every 7 years.

I'd do more research online as there are plenty of resources.

As to the practicality, many people do not invest with expendable income and they do not have the strong hands to ride the highs and lows of the economy. If you put money you can't afford to risk into the market, then you'll likely end up like the many people who buy high and sell low.

Generally, I think a rule of thumb is putting 10-15% of your income in the market. If you really want to get into a strong mentality, act as if you make 10-15% less than you actually do and consider your investing a tax that will be returned to you in the long-term.

Sorry for getting off topic guys but anyway my quick thoughts on the subject.


So, generally speaking a Rolex watch is a terrible investment in the long-term given these numbers. They can be fantastic short-term investments though. You can buy a model and then it gets discontinued a year later and make 30% gains. If you sell after a year at a 30% gain, then you've done very well. Or you could get lucky and get a hold of a watch that isn't hot, then blows up in popularity like the Hulk. The point is, sticking a watch in a safe for long-term gains, at least at the level we are talking about (not piece uniques and extremely rare Pateks/vintage Rolex, and watches like that) is a very bad idea. It's why I cringe when people say they buy watches for their new kids. It's an excuse to buy yourself a watch. You could put the money for the brand new Rolex bought for the baby and put it in the market and then when they are adults they'll have enough money to buy that Rolex and pay a huge chunk of their University tuition...

[TankTom]

Originally Posted by 007_Omega

Yes, generally a successful rate of return is doubling your money every 7 years in the market. You want to hit a 10% ROI every year and if you calculate that based on your initial investment it should roughly double every 7 years.

I'd do more research online as there are plenty of resources.

As to the practicality, many people do not invest with expendable income and they do not have the strong hands to ride the highs and lows of the economy. If you put money you can't afford to risk into the market, then you'll likely end up like the many people who buy high and sell low.

Generally, I think a rule of thumb is putting 10-15% of your income in the market. If you really want to get into a strong mentality, act as if you make 10-15% less than you actually do and consider your investing a tax that will be returned to you in the long-term.

Sorry for getting off topic guys but anyway my quick thoughts on the subject.


So, generally speaking a Rolex watch is a terrible investment in the long-term given these numbers. They can be fantastic short-term investments though. You can buy a model and then it gets discontinued a year later and make 30% gains. If you sell after a year at a 30% gain, then you've done very well. Or you could get lucky and get a hold of a watch that isn't hot, then blows up in popularity like the Hulk. The point is, sticking a watch in a safe for long-term gains, at least at the level we are talking about (not piece uniques and extremely rare Pateks/vintage Rolex, and watches like that) is a very bad idea. It's why I cringe when people say they buy watches for their new kids. It's an excuse to buy yourself a watch. You could put the money for the brand new Rolex bought for the baby and put it in the market and then when they are adults they'll have enough money to buy that Rolex and pay a huge chunk of their University tuition...

30% gains? You can make 70-100% without the watch even being discontinued. Buy a Daytona, Hulk, Pepsi etc. at retail and you’re well above 30% the second you walk out of the door. If the hulk gets discontinued tomorrow and you bought it for £6,600, it’s immediately worth nearly TRIPLE. So you might have missed a 0 off your figure of 30.

[007_Omega]

Originally Posted by TankTom

30% gains? You can make 70-100% without the watch even being discontinued. Buy a Daytona, Hulk, Pepsi etc. at retail and you’re well above 30% the second you walk out of the door. If the hulk gets discontinued tomorrow and you bought it for £6,600, it’s immediately worth nearly TRIPLE. So you might have missed a 0 off your figure of 30.

I seriously laugh at comments like this.

99% of people can't get a Daytona, Hulk, or Pepsi at retail. To do that, you usually have to spend tons of money to get the privilege. In the process of spending that money, you'd usually lose on the undesirable pieces and/or jewelry bought in the process of getting the status to buy the hot steel models.

Now, there are always exceptions. Some people get lucky and are able to get these models without having to spend a boatload of cash on other models.

It's nice to think making 300% gains on a watch is as easy as walking into an AD or putting your name on a list. Buying your wife a $20k piece of jewelry that is in fact worth $6k if sold on the open market to wait a year to get a Pepsi that is worth $7k more than you paid is a fantastic investment.

You know those grey market dealers you see on these forums. They are usually making 10-15% on the hot Steel Rolex models. Not 300%. You want to know why? It's not as easy as just walking into a store and buying them, and the competition between them to buy one is immense.

But keep thinking your Rolex purchases are fantastic investments. Maybe you've hit the goldmine with your AD and simply purchase hot steel Rolex models, without any expectation to grease their palms with PM purchases and jewelry. Hey, it happens with some older members who have been buying Rolex from the same AD for decades. Otherwise, keep dreaming in the lalaland you live in.

I've beaten the market with Rolex sales. It doesn't mean they are good investments. That's called a short-term flip. Should I have held onto those watches long-term rather than selling within a few years for the profit, I'd have gotten crushed by the market. Good thing I love my watches for wearing and not for my 401k plan so the point is mute I guess.

[Texex]

Originally Posted by 007_Omega

Let's say I double my money every 7 years in the market. 20 years is about 21 years.

A new James Cameron after tax would cost me about $14,000.

Do I think in 21 years a James Cameron will be worth $112,000? Guys, stop with this Rolex watch investment thing. In the short-term, you can make nice gains and I don't dispute that but in the long-term you're going to get destroyed by just letting that much money sit in a safe.

Now, if you wear the watch then that is a different story.

I'll play devils advocate to this point for fun. As an example, the 16710 from 2007 (only 13 years ago) had an original MSRP of around $4,500. One recently sold at Phillips auction house for $30,000. That's a higher appreciation than your example 17% annually vs 11% annually and MUCH better than you can expect annually from the market.

https://www.phillips.com/detail/rolex/NY080119/2

That being said, this is a unique situation with a rare watch being left untouched for many years. I do think you can make money as there are very few NOS (completely unworn) Rolex that are 20 years old, I've never seen one even online.

If you pick right not only will you not get destroyed but, you will crush the market. But.... who is qualified to pick right? Not me, my coin is in the market, real estate etc., not in a safe. But it's a fun exercise. I vote for the new Air King, reasonable MSRP with room to grow and probably not long for the catalogue.

[faimag]

Any watch you can get 2 of ! one to wear and one to lock away!

[YGRLX]

Op - great question!

I think I would choose gem set model... maybe a gmt saru. When I look back at vintage gem sets they really stand the test of time

[Harry-57]

Hypothetically speaking, I would buy it to wear it. In 20 years it will be an heirloom, although it will have spent 20 years living in my safe, on the days I wasn't wearing it. It will say more about me (or the memory of me) than the four internal walls of my safe ever will.

[Rado63]

Straight into the safe today, A fully stickered 116508 green dial, or fully stickered 116610LV. 20 years from now NOS, probably worth a few bucks to collectors.

[Roddypeepa]

A mint SD4k. Short run, desirable now. Could’ve very in future.


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[GONZO2LR]

and what happens if something happens to you and maybe it stays in the safe for another 50 years and a relative finds it a 100 years later?

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by GONZO2LR

and what happens if something happens to you and maybe it stays in the safe for another 50 years and a relative finds it a 100 years later?

We'll get a "My Granddad" post and half the respondents will call it a fake.

[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

We'll get a "My Granddad" post and half the respondents will call it a fake.

[bogdoc]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

We'll get a "My Granddad" post and half the respondents will call it a fake.

[KBM]

Because they made about 15 of these, proportionally to Rolex standards.

[Rolex-istanbul]

lets pass the covid 19 first than we can think of 30 years later.

[Rori]

Originally Posted by timepiecegentleman

If you were going to put a brand new watch away in the safe today for roughly 30 years, solely for the purpose of having a true new vintage piece, which one would you choose?


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SD43. I’m sure that at some point in time, it will lose the red line.


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[Pw92676]

I wish I had another 116500 black to put away in the safe for this purpose.

[LJubel328]

I've put my hulk aside.

[kieselguhr]

I understand the idea but I would rather wear the watch

[Ferdelious]

My SD4K

[42itus]

Unless you’re wealthy enough to buy one to wear and one to put away this approach towards watches doesn’t work for me.
20 years from now I will be almost 70 and I don’t think it will give me joy to have a pristine safe queen that may have tripled in value. And if you account for inflation probably less. I would rather have those 20 years back of the enjoyment of wearing that watch. But that’s just me.

But to contribute to this thread I would say one should consider something like a SD43 or a Deepsea Deep Blue. Something out of the ordinary.

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[ndrs63]

Tudor Black Bay 58, black. If this line will have a long life, then the original will be the most sought after


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[mykii]

Honestly probably the Pepsi since it is in it's pioneer round of modern updating. A NOS has potential 30yrs from now, as does hard to get models that are also relatively "first ofs" (e.g. Hulk, Kermit), and uncommon models that people don't really love but are still aesthetically pleasing (e.g White Milgauss but not the AirKing).

[Swaye]

116508 green dial mint in 20 years would be fun I suppose.

[nachopc]

Submariner Fat Four LV


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[tech114]

None. None of the models available nowadays are unique and/or classic enough to have some kind of vintage feels after 20 years.

[Bobby T]

Originally Posted by tech114

None. None of the models available nowadays are unique and/or classic enough to have some kind of vintage feels after 20 years.

You probably would have had the same view about putting away, watches such as GMTs, Daytonas, etc.. 20, 30 and 40 years ago. I'm not saying "do it" all I'm saying is to think that none of the current models will become "classics' might be a bit short-sighted.......only time will tell!!!

[doubleinfive]

I am now starting to see the effects of the Covid-19 lockdowns...

[challer]

Pt dd

[subprimero]

Milgauss Z blue.