Prices not dropping?

[apinault]

Hey gang and happy Mother’s Day to everyone out there!
Interesting, I think, people are saying prices are dropping on the grey market. David S W sure isn’t. I’ve been monitoring a few DJ41s and the price haven’t budged. Maybe just on chrono they’re dropping? Anyway DSW seems to be a pretty reputable seller maybe that’s why.
Have a great Sunday!

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by apinault

Hey gang and happy Mother’s Day to everyone out there!
Interesting, I think, people are saying prices are dropping on the grey market. David S W sure isn’t. I’ve been monitoring a few DJ41s and the price haven’t budged. Maybe just on chrono they’re dropping? Anyway DSW seems to be a pretty reputable seller maybe that’s why.
Have a great Sunday!

We don't know if and what they are trading for. David has lots of influence on grey values. I suspect once or if his prices drop, it could have a broad effect.

Wait and see.

[JRell]

I just watch this video yesterday about prices. They are indeed dropping. You are looking at just list prices.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fTclY3M1vRk

[inadeje]

Originally Posted by JRell

I just watch this video yesterday about prices. They are indeed dropping. You are looking at just list prices.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fTclY3M1vRk

Thanks, that video is a good analysis

[JRell]

Originally Posted by inadeje

Thanks, that video is a good analysis

You are welcome! I very much enjoyed seeing actual data regarding this topic since there is so much speculation.

[rmwill]

Watch charts analysis. LOL. He has no data either.

Originally Posted by inadeje

Thanks, that video is a good analysis

[blargle]

Originally Posted by apinault

Hey gang and happy Mother’s Day to everyone out there!
Interesting, I think, people are saying prices are dropping on the grey market. David S W sure isn’t. I’ve been monitoring a few DJ41s and the price haven’t budged. Maybe just on chrono they’re dropping? Anyway DSW seems to be a pretty reputable seller maybe that’s why.
Have a great Sunday!

the the greys can hold out a bit longer, just like the property market, but once it pops, it just wont stop :)

[rolex16]

Already discussed ad nauseam. Prices are dropping, but big greys holding firm. I would not even think about buying anything from grey/secondary other than straight up vintage right now. More room to fall...

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Already discussed ad nauseam. Prices are dropping, but big greys holding firm. I would not even think about buying anything from grey/secondary other than straight up vintage right now. More room to fall...

This. The guy who runs Moda a sold a panda Daytona the other day for $37k via auction. Prices are down significantly. Grey list prices aren’t reflecting mkt value. They know once they start dropping prices it will be a rush for the exit with each trying to undercut the other to move underwater inventory.

[blargle]

once the prices pop

they just wont stop!!

[Marcjvr]

Sell sell sell

[shirtguy]

David is keeping his prices more or less the same

However he is buying at a lower price

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by shirtguy

David is keeping his prices more or less the same

However he is buying at a lower price

Correct, and in some cases he’s declining to purchase various references.

[subtona]

Originally Posted by shirtguy

David is keeping his prices more or less the same

However he is buying at a lower price

That would be a good indicator or also an equallly good excuse to capitalize on the increasing uncertainty. Either way, no one knows for sure but I am leaning towards a downturn continuing.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by subtona

That would be a good indicator or also an equallly good excuse to capitalize on the increasing uncertainty. Either way, no one knows for sure but I am leaning towards a downturn continuing.

I agree with you. As the economy continues to go down so will luxury items leading the way.

[Patton250]

I would think a thread like this would make everyone on this forum very very happy. Everyone’s been bitching about pricing for the last 5-6 years. It had to crash sometime and it looks like now is the time. The stock market going to continue to decline and energy costs are skyrocketing. That hurts overall business and is going to push out all the people that had extra money that really weren’t interested in the hobby to begin with. Flippers will stop buying to flip and that will lead to extra inventory for those who actually want these special timepieces. People here should be celebrating.

[blargle]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I would think a thread like this would make everyone on this forum very very happy. Everyone’s been bitching about pricing for the last 5-6 years. It had to crash sometime and it looks like now is the time. The stock market going to continue to decline and energy costs are skyrocketing. That hurts overall business and is going to push out all the people that had extra money that really weren’t interested in the hobby to begin with. Flippers will stop buying to flip and that will lead to extra inventory for those who actually want these special timepieces. People here should be celebrating.

my portfolio is down about 100 rolexes.... so im not celebrating believe me

[GaoKS]

Originally Posted by blargle

my portfolio is down about 100 rolexes.... so im not celebrating believe me

Damn baller

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I would think a thread like this would make everyone on this forum very very happy. Everyone’s been bitching about pricing for the last 5-6 years. It had to crash sometime and it looks like now is the time. The stock market going to continue to decline and energy costs are skyrocketing. That hurts overall business and is going to push out all the people that had extra money that really weren’t interested in the hobby to begin with. Flippers will stop buying to flip and that will lead to extra inventory for those who actually want these special timepieces. People here should be celebrating.

I agree, but it seems enthusiasts of that mindset are in short supply around here…

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I would think a thread like this would make everyone on this forum very very happy. Everyone’s been bitching about pricing for the last 5-6 years. It had to crash sometime and it looks like now is the time. The stock market going to continue to decline and energy costs are skyrocketing. That hurts overall business and is going to push out all the people that had extra money that really weren’t interested in the hobby to begin with. Flippers will stop buying to flip and that will lead to extra inventory for those who actually want these special timepieces. People here should be celebrating.

For many people it will be tough times ahead for sure, no relief in sight. Expensive inflation, energy, and money. Personally I just want to be able to walk into an AD, ask what is available and walk out with a watch.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

For many people it will be tough times ahead for sure, no relief in sight. Expensive inflation, energy, and money. Personally I just want to be able to walk into an AD, ask what is available and walk out with a watch.

The entire spectrum of the middle class will suffer. Of course the lower middle class as usual will be hit the hardest but the stock market collapse will hurt the upper middle class also. I hate it when the economy does this type of crap especially when it’s so avoidable. Oh well at least we can get whatever Watches we want at retail in the very near future. Remember the grays are used to have these watches at a discount when that’s what the market dictated. Maybe they will again one day. We used to get some great deals from David SW.

[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by Patton250

The entire spectrum of the middle class will suffer. Of course the lower middle class as usual will be hit the hardest but the stock market collapse will hurt the upper middle class also. I hate it when the economy does this type of crap especially when it’s so avoidable. Oh well at least we can get whatever Watches we want at retail in the very near future. Remember the grays are used to have these watches at a discount when that’s what the market dictated. Maybe they will again one day. We used to get some great deals from David SW.

The stock market seems to be doing fine from my perspective. If you go back to pre-pandemic levels, current market levels give it about a 10% annual return over the past several years. It up way too fast due in part to all the money laying around. And now we are back down closer to where we should have been.

[BT1985]

Originally Posted by No SUBctitute

The stock market seems to be doing fine from my perspective. If you go back to pre-pandemic levels, current market levels give it about a 10% annual return over the past several years. It up way too fast due in part to all the money laying around. And now we are back down closer to where we should have been.

Yep. This is a healthy correction in my opinion. For all risk asset classes, including watches. Rolex watches are only a risk asset class for those that bought with an intent to sell at some point in the short term. Rolex watches are a good store of value history suggests and certain models can absolutely be a great investment but a lot of people just view them as their watch that they will bang around and one day pass on to their kids (which is a better way to look at it I think).


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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by No SUBctitute

The stock market seems to be doing fine from my perspective. If you go back to pre-pandemic levels, current market levels give it about a 10% annual return over the past several years. It up way too fast due in part to all the money laying around. And now we are back down closer to where we should have been.

You can spin that however you want but my 401(k) is down 16% for the year. That’s reality no matter how many flowers you try to put next to it. It probably is is just a correction but we shall see. All the other indicators look terrible also. Interest rates and energy. Look what happened back in the 70s when those two things skyrocketed. You’re going to need more flowers.

[Tim Plains]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

Personally I just want to be able to walk into an AD, ask what is available and walk out with a watch.

I think we all want that but I doubt it will drop to that point, at least with stainless GMTs, Daytonas and the like.

[Nico81]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I would think a thread like this would make everyone on this forum very very happy. Everyone’s been bitching about pricing for the last 5-6 years. It had to crash sometime and it looks like now is the time. The stock market going to continue to decline and energy costs are skyrocketing. That hurts overall business and is going to push out all the people that had extra money that really weren’t interested in the hobby to begin with. Flippers will stop buying to flip and that will lead to extra inventory for those who actually want these special timepieces. People here should be celebrating.

Agree.. this will flush out alot of flippers


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[orthopa]

Interest rates are going up sharply, the money supply is contracting. Prices for all assets are going to contract. Some faster then others but luxury items are likely the first to drop.

House prices, stocks, bond prices, used car prices, luxury items all will drop in price. Just give it time. The greys maybe trying to eek out a couple grand more but the price drop with come. The money supply is contracting and quickly.

[rolexjackson]

I’ve noticed that some of the smaller Greys pricing has fallen. NashV watch for example has lowered several of his more expensive pieces in the last few weeks. Also I’ve noticed that the smaller ones including DVSW isn’t buying the same way either. I am by no stretch of the imagination a flipper but I recently moved out some of my collection to make room for some new pieces.


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[rmwill]

Stands to reason that the most hyped references are dropping for a few reasons. The Ukraine war, Chinese economic slowdown/lockdowns, and the pre Basel world speculation of discontinuation by "investors". I am shopping for a specific DJ41 or OP39 and they haven't seen any declines, but remember that there is zero selling price transparency in the secondary watch market. If a watch is one that folks buy to wear, I don't think much has changed.

[Kinnakeet]

Anyone who doesn’t see that prices are falling and going to fall are fooling themselves. Same with selling a watch to a grey. They most likely won’t even offer to buy. That includes green subs and the different GMT’s that are out.