Is demand real?

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by johnjm

Why do people still believe that the greys swoop in?

Accept the fact that you are a small fish in a big pond. And there are three times as many fisherman.


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Originally Posted by UK_

Exactly this.

People seem to not like the fact that there is now massive demand for these watches, real demand from the very large number of people who want them and have the money (regardless of what has been posted above, many multiples of people can afford them compared to the 80s, how many more are now sold in Asia?).

1 million may be produced, but it’s relative, demand outstrips that supply. Someone’s perception of ‘rare’ has nothing to do with it - it’s all about demand and supply.

Just because many are for sale does not mean there is enough supply to meet demand, otherwise prices would drop. And those numbers form Chrono are useless anyway, how many are actually watches?

Like most people I don’t know, but I don’t think greys are buying many multiples of desired SS models form ADs. What I think is happening is those who do buy, are tempted by the quick £2k they can make and flip it to a grey dealer.

There is no grand central grey dealer coordinating a world wide conspiracy to fix prices. They sell them for as much as they can get.

SS is a bit of a bubble clearly. For the ‘Everyman’ who wants to buy a Rolex, they can get a DJ, OP etc any time they want.

But I suspect Rolex is more interested in the higher end of the market, not the one off buyers.


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[teck21]

Originally Posted by johnjm

Why do people still believe that the greys swoop in?

Accept the fact that you are a small fish in a big pond. And there are three times as many fisherman.


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It’s hurtful to the ego so they dream up theories that cannot be proven.

The information necessary to prove them right, or wrong is not available.

So these theories become the truth because they can’t be proven wrong, not because they are proven to be right.

All because the truth hurts more than the lie.

Anyways I think I’m gonna stay out of the whole ADs funneling to grey debate henceforth. It’s really pointless.


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Devildog

I think where you're going wrong here is that you are making the (flawed) assumption that what happens in the USA happens across the globe as far as AD's selling direct to the resellers is concerned.

You're asserting that the greys create the supply pinch. But its a bit chicken and egg. Which came first?

An alternate view is that the greys are only acquiring the numbers of watches they are because of the increased demand and hence the ability to enhanced profits. The grey market model in the US has undoubtedly changed significantly now that demand from ADs exceeds supply and ADs don't need to offload slow selling stock.

I've been into Rolex watches since the 80's too. Up until a few years ago you'd hardly see another sports Rolex in the wild. Now they are to be seen everywhere, worn buy a significantly different demographic.

Popularity and hence demand has never been higher. Ever.

Y(US)MMV. That does not mean the same necessarily applies globally

I agree with many of your points, however there are plenty of gray market dealers outside the USA and a simple search on chrono 24 would suggest many all over the world. But imagine for example, all the gray market supply went back to the AD. Right now on chrono 24, (all brand new in box) 155 hulks, 122 BLNR, interestingly 128 brand new 116710LN, 288 BLRO, 161 ss daytonas.

Now, this does not count the thousands in the hands of the gray market outside of chrono 24. Do you really think that if the gray market disappeared today and this supply went back to the AD, there would not be more to go around? It’s simply math. There is more hype about Rolex that’s for sure, but what I am unclear on and I don’t see any hard data is demand is up. But among what demographic and I would argue demand is down with another demographic.

One can’t argue that 1) The prices of Rolex have outstripped inflation by a massive degree, 2. Real wages have gone down for a massive amount of the population (not just in US- see international labor organization reports) This also means that demand may have dropped off for some Rolex buyers, and one can argue why Rolex is swimming upstream in the AP territory these days (or trying to). So my argument is not so flawed as it is based on data. Second, I have been alive and in the game long enough to tell you that the AD were here first and the gray market not a significant factor until 2010 or so. So no chicken and egg. The gray market serves a function however and so they co-exist. So yes, your point is correct sort of. The gray market can sell to the increased demand among a much smaller subset of the financially well off that will pay not to wait, but your point also Ignores the likely fall off in demand for the true middle class buyers of the 70’s-90’s.

I would also make another point to consider. It’s entirely possible that The demand has gone up mainly for SS models and Rolex is making similar proportions of SS, two-tone, and gold models as well as there other models. As we moved into the 2000’s people became more interested in ss, (also evident in the jewelry market higher demand in white gold platinum around 2000) Rolex may simply not have shifted their production to match the shifted demand for the two tone watches and gold in the 80’s and 90’s to the SS. So less a demand issue than a shift in tastes. I still see Plenty of other models on display cases, just not the sport models.


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by johnjm

Why do people still believe that the greys swoop in?

Accept the fact that you are a small fish in a big pond. And there are three times as many fisherman.


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Where is your data for that? Do you recall seeing any gray dealers in the 80’s, how about the 90’s, even prior to 2010?


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[johnjm]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Where is your data for that? Do you recall seeing any gray dealers in the 80’s, how about the 90’s, even prior to 2010?


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Where is your data? Simple economics demand vs supply.

Imagine someone told you that you could hail a taxi from your device in the 80s.


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by teck21

Anyways I think I’m gonna stay out of the whole ADs funneling to grey debate henceforth.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Where is your data for that? Do you recall seeing any gray dealers in the 80’s, how about the 90’s, even prior to 2010?


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The answer is in your sign-off in the last line above. Do you recall having the Internet in your pocket in the 80’s or 90’s? How long before 2010 did you buy your first iPhone?

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont

The answer is in your sign-off in the last line above. Do you recall having the Internet in your pocket in the 80’s or 90’s? How long before 2010 did you buy your first iPhone?

I’m confused. You say demand has gone up. I partially agree. Demand has shifted from two tone and gold and the DJ/DD models to the SS models and Rolex has kept the ratios the same. So demand for the SS models has gone up. Certain demographics demand has gone up, and in certain demographics gone down. Do you really think having the hundreds of thousands of gray market watches back in the hands of AD would not make it easier for most to access them?

It’s like widgets. Let’s say there are 100k made by company x and sent to 100 sellers. Now 10 other sellers buy up all the widgets and jack the price. Now instead of having 100 sellers, folks have less to go to and have to pay more. Increase demand? Not necessarily, pinched off supply. Like putting you thumb on the nozzle of the hose, same water just being pinched.


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[Pam673]

ADs not only sell through the backdoor but are also selling across continents.

Digital platforms like whatsapp make selling things across border extremely easy.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by johnjm

Where is your data? Simple economics demand vs supply.

Imagine someone told you that you could hail a taxi from your device in the 80s.


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Phones don’t create demand, they create hype via instabook. How many people have phones and can afford to buy a Rolex? Less and less if you look at economics and don’t give me that baloney about middle class in developing counties. It’s not the middle class buying rolexes.


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[johnjm]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Phones don’t create demand, they create hype via instabook. How many people have phones and can afford to buy a Rolex? Less and less if you look at economics and don’t give me that baloney about middle class in developing counties. It’s not the middle class buying rolexes.


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Whatever you say , I look forward to the script and subsequent movie about the shady dealings. I’d buy a ticket.

Now let me get back to washing the dishes.


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[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Demand has dropped off, its statistically impossible for what has happened in the world to have not had some impact. It’s math folks. That said, there was never a major demand issue, simply supply pinched off by the literal thousands of gray market sellers. Like I have said many times, if you can have any watch in the Rolex catalog by Monday morning, that’s not excessive demand or that the watch is rare. A Picasso is rare, in that there are only so many. Any gray dealer and their uncle has a Daytona. What’s that tell you?

Just because someone lists a Daytona doesn't mean that they have one. Many of these folks (established, trusted dealers excluded) will list if, make a deal for a big price and then go out and buy the watch for a bit less and flip it.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by Chester01

I’m confused. You say demand has gone up. I partially agree. Demand has shifted from two tone and gold and the DJ/DD models to the SS models and Rolex has kept the ratios the same. So demand for the SS models has gone up. Certain demographics demand has gone up, and in certain demographics gone down. Do you really think having the hundreds of thousands of gray market watches back in the hands of AD would not make it easier for most to access them?

It’s like widgets. Let’s say there are 100k made by company x and sent to 100 sellers. Now 10 other sellers buy up all the widgets and jack the price. Now instead of having 100 sellers, folks have less to go to and have to pay more. Increase demand? Not necessarily, pinched off supply. Like putting you thumb on the nozzle of the hose, same water just being pinched.



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I can’t speak to your confusion, only to your statements. The grey market dealers haven’t pinched supply because they too have to sell those watches. They have diffused and unfocused the supply perhaps but not pinched it; the watches remain in the marketplace. And to return to your previous post that I quoted the dynamic that lead to the ascendence of the greys didn’t exist in the 80’s or 90’s and barely in the oughts because the Internet via smartphones wasn’t ubiquitous then.

[yonexsp]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

In 2019 my AD received two SS blue Sky Dwellers, one SS black Sky Dweller, and one SS white Sky Dweller. They declined to put me on the list for a SS black Sky Dweller because there were too many people in front of me. Which was not many. But with six people listed for black, a few more listed for any colour, and roughly one black watch turning up every year, the maths were not hard.

At the end of March I dropped my Z-Blue in for repair. I asked about the possibility of getting listed for a SS BLRO and the SA offered me a BLNR from the safe.

So the answer, as always, is that it all depends on a number of things, all variables.

Even if it takes years, I will wait for BLRO or Daytona. The wait for my Batgirl wasn't that bad. I even bought a Rootbeer one day as it was in the window. Even they have gone now.

[UK_]

Originally Posted by Chester01

I’m confused. You say demand has gone up. I partially agree. Demand has shifted from two tone and gold and the DJ/DD models to the SS models and Rolex has kept the ratios the same. So demand for the SS models has gone up. Certain demographics demand has gone up, and in certain demographics gone down. Do you really think having the hundreds of thousands of gray market watches back in the hands of AD would not make it easier for most to access them?

It’s like widgets. Let’s say there are 100k made by company x and sent to 100 sellers. Now 10 other sellers buy up all the widgets and jack the price. Now instead of having 100 sellers, folks have less to go to and have to pay more. Increase demand? Not necessarily, pinched off supply. Like putting you thumb on the nozzle of the hose, same water just being pinched.


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You say Rolex have kept the manufacturing ratio across SS and TT the same, I didn’t know this information was available.

You don’t seem to recognise that there has been an economic boom in China and Asia, creating a whole new economic class that buy luxury goods.

You don’t think that social media, influencers, access to celebrity culture affects demand.

You think that people buying and selling watches some how constricts demand into the market.

You think that putting a few hundred Daytona into AD would somehow make these more available to ordinary people, rather than not even make it into the case but go to one of their VIP clients.

You think that there are the same volume of people in the word who want and can afford a Rolex today as there was in a time when Europe was split by a wall, nuclear war was a real possibility, Dubai was a desert, China was having famines and there was hardly any TV never mind an iPhone.

If I believed all those things I would have the same view point I suppose.

But I don’t, so I will stick to the fact that as real values have went up (market prices), demand is massively up too.


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Kevin of Larchmont

I can’t speak to your confusion, only to your statements. The grey market dealers haven’t pinched supply because they too have to sell those watches. They have diffused and unfocused the supply perhaps but not pinched it; the watches remain in the marketplace. And to return to your previous post that I quoted the dynamic that lead to the ascendence of the greys didn’t exist in the 80’s or 90’s and barely in the oughts because the Internet via smartphones wasn’t ubiquitous then.

Yes cell phones are all over, but increased hype does not mean increased demand. Cell phone don’t by the watches, bank accounts do.

But let me clarify, I’m not saying that demand has not gone up a little, perhaps it has but the watches are not actually hard to get. They are hard to get at the AD. This proves it’s not a scarcity in like a Picasso is scarce where there is a finite amount. You and I can get any Rolex model we want this week. That’s a fabricated scarcity and not real. There is no argument. It’s not that the watches can’t be had, you have to pony up. You also can’t deny that if those watches the gray is holding went back onto the hands of the Ad there would be more go around at MSRP. These are facts.


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

Just because someone lists a Daytona doesn't mean that they have one. Many of these folks (established, trusted dealers excluded) will list if, make a deal for a big price and then go out and buy the watch for a bit less and flip it.

I have sold on chrono 24 and you have to prove you have the watch. They tell you to set the time to a random time and snap a pic. So between chrono 24 and the hundred grays, I can’t say for certain but there are plenty out there for those that want them.


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by UK_

You say Rolex have kept the manufacturing ratio across SS and TT the same, I didn’t know this information was available.

You don’t seem to recognise that there has been an economic boom in China and Asia, creating a whole new economic class that buy luxury goods.

You don’t think that social media, influencers, access to celebrity culture affects demand.

You think that people buying and selling watches some how constricts demand into the market.

You think that putting a few hundred Daytona into AD would somehow make these more available to ordinary people, rather than not even make it into the case but go to one of their VIP clients.

You think that there are the same volume of people in the word who want and can afford a Rolex today as there was in a time when Europe was split by a wall, nuclear war was a real possibility, Dubai was a desert, China was having famines and there was hardly any TV never mind an iPhone.

If I believed all those things I would have the same view point I suppose.

But I don’t, so I will stick to the fact that as real values have went up (market prices), demand is massively up too.


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I don’t disagree with the economic boom in Asia. But don’t confuse a boom in middle class with the Rolex buying boom. Yes, some are getting wealthier and many more poorer- these are facts and backed by data. Yes internet creates hype, but what’s less clear is how many buyers. The facts are you and I can get any watch we want, they are sitting on gray market shelves we simply have to pony up. That’s not real scarcity it’s fabricated. If it were real demand, they would not be available anywhere. And yes, putting several hundred more back in the AD would make a difference. I bought my Daytona at MSRP in 2014 from an AD. Yes, math wins here and more watches at the AD makes more available to everyone.


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[Bigblu10]

Originally Posted by Chester01

I don’t disagree with the economic boom in Asia. But don’t confuse a boom in middle class with the Rolex buying boom. Yes, some are getting wealthier and many more poorer- these are facts and backed by data. Yes internet creates hype, but what’s less clear is how many buyers. The facts are you and I can get any watch we want, they are sitting on gray market shelves we simply have to pony up. That’s not real scarcity it’s fabricated. If it were real demand, they would not be available anywhere. And yes, putting several hundred more back in the AD would make a difference. I bought my Daytona at MSRP in 2014 from an AD. Yes, math wins here and more watches at the AD makes more available to everyone.


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Let's not forget just because there are "economic booms" in certain parts of the world doesn't mean that every person with 10K in their bank account wants to go out and buy a new Rolex. There are likely many wealthy folks out there who would not spend more than $100 on any watch. This forum and it's members are definitely in a closed bubble, compared to the rest of the population.

[UK_]

Originally Posted by Chester01

I don’t disagree with the economic boom in Asia. But don’t confuse a boom in middle class with the Rolex buying boom. Yes, some are getting wealthier and many more poorer- these are facts and backed by data. Yes internet creates hype, but what’s less clear is how many buyers. The facts are you and I can get any watch we want, they are sitting on gray market shelves we simply have to pony up. That’s not real scarcity it’s fabricated. If it were real demand, they would not be available anywhere. And yes, putting several hundred more back in the AD would make a difference. I bought my Daytona at MSRP in 2014 from an AD. Yes, math wins here and more watches at the AD makes more available to everyone.


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We are never going to agree, which is good as this would me much more boring if we did.

I don’t understand the ‘scarcity’ point, it’s all about supply and demand, not how absolutely scarce something is. Most (consumer goods) things can be bought, no matter how rare. The variable is how much everyone else wants it, which will set the price.

Anyway, you have a Daytona, and I don’t!


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by UK_

We are never going to agree, which is good as this would me much more boring if we did.

I don’t understand the ‘scarcity’ point, it’s all about supply and demand, not how absolutely scarce something is. Most (consumer goods) things can be bought, no matter how rare. The variable is how much everyone else wants it, which will set the price.

Anyway, you have a Daytona, and I don’t!


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Lol. I gave the Daytona to my wife anyway. A whole other story about how sometimes a watch is a grail on your mind and not on the wrist lol.


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[640ibimmerguy]

Not sure but went to one of my local AD/s last week, was told 6 years before I could get a SUB and they wouldn't even add me to the list it's so long. It's not like I live in NY or some huge metropolitan city either. I offered to put down a deposit and was told no. Even asked what if I paid in full (wouldn't do that but curious) and was still told no.

I was basically told we don't want your business go away, haha. Oh well.

On a side not, they had a late 70's model sub date, 1 owner that was pretty cool. Not worth the 10k they were asking at least to me, but still a nice looking watch. I believe the bezel and face were faded b/c they were more of a gray color which I thought was pretty cool looking.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Lol. I gave the Daytona to my wife anyway. A whole other story about how sometimes a watch is a grail on your mind and not on the wrist lol.


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TT white dial Daytona is one of the best unisex watches there is IMO

[UK_]

Originally Posted by 640ibimmerguy

Not sure but went to one of my local AD/s last week, was told 6 years before I could get a SUB and they wouldn't even add me to the list it's so long. It's not like I live in NY or some huge metropolitan city either. I offered to put down a deposit and was told no. Even asked what if I paid in full (wouldn't do that but curious) and was still told no.

I was basically told we don't want your business go away, haha. Oh well.

On a side not, they had a late 70's model sub date, 1 owner that was pretty cool. Not worth the 10k they were asking at least to me, but still a nice looking watch. I believe the bezel and face were faded b/c they were more of a gray color which I thought was pretty cool looking.

Sadly, they don’t want your business, if it’s a one off purchase of a SS Rolex.

Makes it even worse when you open a magazine form today and find this!




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[johnjm]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Yes cell phones are all over, but increased hype does not mean increased demand. Cell phone don’t by the watches, bank accounts do.

But let me clarify, I’m not saying that demand has not gone up a little, perhaps it has but the watches are not actually hard to get. They are hard to get at the AD. This proves it’s not a scarcity in like a Picasso is scarce where there is a finite amount. You and I can get any Rolex model we want this week. That’s a fabricated scarcity and not real. There is no argument. It’s not that the watches can’t be had, you have to pony up. You also can’t deny that if those watches the gray is holding went back onto the hands of the Ad there would be more go around at MSRP. These are facts.


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[640ibimmerguy]

Originally Posted by UK_

Sadly, they don’t want your business, if it’s a one off purchase of a SS Rolex.

Makes it even worse when you open a magazine form today and find this!




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So here's the funny thing and you are correct, they don't care which is fine.
Bought my wife some diamond ear ring studs from a jeweler I've used for 20 years now. Lets say for fun these were about $8k. Co-workers goes to this same AD mentioned in first post and buys the same size ear rings (not sure clarity and color but mine are very good on both ) and pays $16k for the same size. i know a lot of factors can make up some of that difference.

Fast forward, just had an eternity band made for her, would've easily been more than double at the rolex AD.

The way I see it, I save a ton of money not using this guy, so if I have to pay 4-5k on the secondary for a model I really want I've still come out ahead.

One last thing, the jeweler I use, has a Batgirl in his safe, purchased locally from a customer who purchased from the AD, brand new, I could buy it for about $15k...I'd still come out ahead.

[Gasoil4ever]

I think demand is real.

But : many buyers are on multiple AD’s list for the same model. So it inflates the demand artificially.

The buyers I know who are top listers because they buy a lot... buy a lot to resell at a premium or put in the safe as investments.

I know quite a few collectors with over 20 watches in their possession with at least 5-6 unworn.

It’s the average Rolex joe like me that use to buy at some special occasion (child birth, anniversary, professional milestone, big bonus) that can’t get a chance anymore to get a SS watch available when the day comes.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by johnjm

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Lol. Has to be one of my all time favorite shows!


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[Saltzy]

I've stated my opinion before, and I do not look at my watch as an "investment" in the sense that pisses off the OG squad here, but if you don't think that .6% APR at BEST these days for savings accounts is impacting some of this demand you're crazy.

Rolex is up for the same reason that sports memorabilia and art is up.

If I can't get ANY yield in anything without a high degree of risk (which the entire stock market is to me right now), and I can't get it in any traditional fixed income vehicle, why the hell not find a used SS sport model Rolex at a good price, at be able to wear it and enjoy it, and get probably get a better ROI/lower risk than I would with that money sitting in an account somewhere these days.

[Posh Gentleman]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

For flippers, you mean it’s rolex/ap/pp or bust. For us watch enthusiasts there’s other brands that make superior watches for the price point.

But yes, for flippers and hype beasts you’re only able to acquire a Rolex/AP/PP at msrp and flip it for a profit.

That’s not why a lot of us are in the game.

I have 3 watches (all rolex) and I think it is more than enough for me as a collection. I have difficulty wearing all 3 watches with enough wear out of each piece.

for most guys, having a 2-3 nice watch collection will do.

question is, do you want to have Rolex / AP / PP in that rotation, or do you want to squeeze in some other random piece from other brands into that rotation.

Omega - nice movement and nicely built, but cases are way too big for my wrist at 42-44mm.

Panerai - I think these are ugly as hell, so hard pass

Seiko - cases are wayyy too big

IWC - not a fan of dial / case design.

any other watch brands you like?