Insanity! Where does it stop?

[dsk28]

About 9 years ago I was offered a Richard Mille RM10 for $22k.
I passed on the deal, thinking it was an absurd amount of money for a 3 finger HMS + Date Titanium watch on rubber.
That same watch is now worth $150k.

[majidessa]

I was checking Joma Shop and noticed that TT Daytonas are priced around $30K !! Its not just the SS that has gone crazy I guess....

Seriously though I see SS Daytona hitting the $50k mark very soon in early 2022

[WILLIWALKER]

Bof, 11 years ago, I had the possibility of ordering a Simplicity from the great Philippe Dufour for ~ 20ke !
~ 300 / 500k today

[padi56]

Originally Posted by BillA

Price of a SS Daytona ranges between $38K to $42K, grey dealers, for a watch with an msrp of $13,150.

Where does it end? Is this insanity? Do people have this kind of money to burn? I just don’t get it.

End rant.

Well the modern day Daytona must be the most over hyped watches today ever, a great movement but today many buy the hype to wear it. And Rolex watches now to many are seen as little more than ££$$€€ object things, sold to the highest bidder. And while there are those willing to pay crazy prices for mass produced watches afraid the trend will not end.

[Gerardus]

I don't care ...to be honest. I own the watches I want. Ridiculous to sponsor a hype....

[Oxfordian]

Originally Posted by jacky_lai

I just got a second hand black dial for $32K. You'll never get a chance to buy one from AD for retail price. Sorry to say, but that's the reality.

And this is the reason why prices are rising, people paying OTT prices for a watch that retails at a third (or thereabouts) of the price paid.

No criticism of you for doing so, its your money and you have the right to spend it as you see fit. But your post answers the OP's initial question.

As for me, well I'll probably never buy a Daytona, I am certainly not going to buy at above retail and my AD tells me that the wait is a long long time or never. I might be more enthusiastic if Rolex grew the watch a bit, added a mm or two, now that would interest me.

Congrats on getting the watch, may you enjoy it for many years to come.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by IAN1

PP 5711 is a $35K watch selling for $140. Everyone accepts that as "normal". Is that insanity?

This is another great example of the insanity. Plus the 5711 shouldn’t sell for a dime over 20K and 20K is being generous. It’s a 19.5K watch tops. I will never understand the obsession over this reference. Never.

OP, so long as people are willing to pay it will keep going. That’s also what’s causing the flipping.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by padi56

Well the modern day Daytona must be the most over hyped watches today ever, a great movement but today many buy the hype to wear it. And Rolex watches now to many are seen as little more than ££$$€€ object things, sold to the highest bidder. And while there are those willing to pay crazy prices for mass produced watches afraid the trend will not end.

You are absolutely right of course. Rolex has become a status symbol now. I suppose it kind of has been for the last 40 years or so but it’s really hit new heights this last 10 years and the Daytona seems to be the pinnacle of it. It used to be the gold submariner or Day Date but now the “want to impress their friends” people think it’s the stainless steel Daytona. Just crazy.

[airchitect]

Regardless of the market or someone’s wealth, yes yes it is stupid. That’s all there is to it. And for anyone thinking otherwise, I could probably hunt down some beenie babies for you if you’d like….


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[padi56]

Originally Posted by Patton250

You are absolutely right of course. Rolex has become a status symbol now. I suppose it kind of has been for the last 40 years or so but it’s really hit new heights this last 10 years and the Daytona seems to be the pinnacle of it. It used to be the gold submariner or Day Date but now the “want to impress their friends” people think it’s the stainless steel Daytona. Just crazy.

Agree up to a point but Rolex have always been expensive I remember my Father taking on two jobs and save for almost 5 years to buy his first Rolex back in the early 1980s . Different story today with more disposable income and credit cards for this or that, plus interest free buying. But IMHO Rolex watches today not so much a status more of a hype symbol with many of the so called not watches today. Thinking they got something rare or special because they are hard to get, instead of a mass produced watch made in there millions.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by Mendota

That is exactly what fueled the tulip mania. It was resellers buying tulip options, not even the actual bulbs because they hadn't even been grown yet. The banks were lending on the tulip options, so resellers would buy the tulip options and levered themselves up 10:1. Then they would turn around and sell the option to another flipper. The original party then paid back their loan and kept the profit. The next party had often times already gone to the same bank and levered up 10:1 themselves for that same option, so they had to find a 3rd party now to sell to, repay the loan, and walk away with profit. Sometimes the same option traded hands 10 times in a single day, with all of the buyers using 10:1 leverage and scalping profits each time. It wasn't until the first bank saw this and said no, we are taking away the leverage, that the rest of the banks also took away the leverage and the music stopped playing.

On top of that everyone couldn't conduct their normal, routine businesses because the Black Plague was sweeping through Europe at the time and Holland was getting hit. The Black Plague virus pandemic created a situation of easy money with the banks and bored/desperate merchants, all wanting to trade and make easy profits with these tulip options.

To quote the venerable Yogi Berra, it's Deja Vu all over again!

The difference being that nobody seems to be using leverage in this market. Unlike your example, and 2008-2009 where people and entities were over leveraged and the music did stop for them and cause havoc, a lot of people seem to have made money in crypto, or monetized their social media, or by following social media stock trends like Gamestop and others. It almost makes me feel "slow dumb and stupid" as my dad would say, for having built a nice portfolio of high dividend yielding stocks and real estate investments while dollar-cost-averaging the proceeds from my middle-management corporate job.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by padi56

Agree up to a point but Rolex have always been expensive I remember my Father taking on two jobs and save for almost 5 years to buy his first Rolex back in the early 1980s . Different story today with more disposable income and credit cards for this or that, plus interest free buying. But IMHO Rolex watches today not so much a status more of a hype symbol with many of the so called not watches today. Thinking they got something rare or special because they are hard to get, instead of a mass produced watch made in there millions.

Absolutely no doubt about it. Although I kind of consider “status symbol” and “hype symbol” to be the same thing. But there’s no way a Daytona could get to be 40K or even worse a 5711 getting to be 100K without both the desire for status fueled by the massive social media hype.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Absolutely no doubt about it. Although I kind of consider “status symbol” and “hype symbol” to be the same thing. But there’s no way a Daytona could get to be 40K or even worse a 5711 getting to be 100K without both the desire for status fueled by the massive social media hype.

Agree about the so called social media, many today have lost the use of there own brain. And they rely on so called social media to make there minds up, or to do the thinking for them, same for much on Youtube today, most nothing more than clickbait.

[Oldwoods]

Originally Posted by Beto737

I was recently told that to compete in Daytona market today, takes upwards of $300-400k spend history. I think they were trying to tell me something…

I picked up a new Daytona from my AD yesterday and my spend with them is nothing like the figures quoted. I have, however, nurtured a long standing relationship with them which, I believe, is very important.

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by Oystersteel92

The difference being that nobody seems to be using leverage in this market. Unlike your example, and 2008-2009 where people and entities were over leveraged and the music did stop for them and cause havoc, a lot of people seem to have made money in crypto, or monetized their social media, or by following social media stock trends like Gamestop and others. It almost makes me feel "slow dumb and stupid" as my dad would say, for having built a nice portfolio of high dividend yielding stocks and real estate investments while dollar-cost-averaging the proceeds from my middle-management corporate job.

Actually, margin debt is at an all time record high. Almost a trillion dollars. Far more than 2008 or any other point.

No, you are doing it right. Those of us who are diversified in real estate, stocks, who have built our own businesses or have devoted careers to growing others are going to be fine. You are doing it right. Don't listen to the bored, millennial daytraders who think they are experts simply because they are picking things that are going up. A rising tide lifts all boats. Everyone's an expert when nothing goes down.

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[Longhorn]

When will the hype for 31mm Oyster Perpetuals go down? My partner wants to expand her collection.

[1665fan]

The cryptona is here to stay it seems……hype has officially taken over and it’s the desire of most collectors

[Tricolore66]

People don’t buy things, they buy feelings. To a lot of people the cost of the status they feel when wearing the unobtainable is worth the money. There’s also a lot of funny money out there, between an overheated financial market, crypto, etc. I look at my investments and it’s exciting, but I have no illusions about having done much of anything to have earned it, but definitely spend much more freely because of it. I can’t believe anyone who had to work really hard for their money, even if they had plenty of it, would be paying 3-4x MSRP for a watch.

[Geckobros]

Meh, it's far easier to enjoy the comedy than trying make sense of it.

[afjag256]

All tied to crypto and stocks. In their minds, buying a Rolex is diversifying. Pure speculation but I wonder if there is a bit of money laundering in the mix.

[DocHorton]

Originally Posted by BillA

Price of a SS Daytona ranges between $38K to $42K, grey dealers, for a watch with an msrp of $13,150.

Do people have this kind of money to burn? I just don’t get it.

End rant.

Yes

[watchwatcher]

To the rest of the world, spending thousands of dollars on a watch is insane. So...a little perspective here.

My thought: it's only insane if you buy it at that price and it's worth around 50% of what you paid for it when you decide to get rid of it or trade it in. You, know, like a car? Now, that's insane.

I'll say this about Daytona's, the only time I've ever regretted selling one is when I sold one.

[Rori]

Originally Posted by Cdaddylutz

It stops when people realize their throwing their money away.

Silly rabbits.

This


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[Rori]

Originally Posted by BillA

Price of a SS Daytona ranges between $38K to $42K, grey dealers, for a watch with an msrp of $13,150.

Where does it end? Is this insanity? Do people have this kind of money to burn? I just don’t get it.

End rant.

I would call it STUPIDITY.


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[DocHorton]

Originally Posted by Cdaddylutz

It stops when people realize their throwing their money away.

Silly rabbits.

They aren't throwing their money away, in fact it's exactly the opposite. They buy a Daytona and there's a pretty good chance in 6 months it's worth more than what they paid.

[Duey]

Originally Posted by franktehtank

Notice how crypto is up again? Follow the money! People are willing to buy watches directly with crypto gains to avoid paying capital gains taxes. When you're up several multiples of your original investment, and stand to lose a large portion to the tax man, those prices don't seem so crazy.

I personally think a large portion of the Rolex hype/flippable brands market is driven by this type of tax evasion.

Well said

As long as this make be-leave crpto money is flowing and growing the watches will too. When you can buy a watch from DavidSW with Dogecoin on Bitpay there's going to be an end coming soon.

We now have BITO - The fund tracks CME bitcoin futures, or contracts speculating on the future price of bitcoin, rather than the crypto itself. And it's going up ....

(please no crypto is great and the US dollar isn't comments. We're just talking pricing)

[Beto737]

Originally Posted by Oldwoods

I picked up a new Daytona from my AD yesterday and my spend with them is nothing like the figures quoted. I have, however, nurtured a long standing relationship with them which, I believe, is very important.

Congratulations, wear it good health!

I agree with you, if, you’ve had a long standing relationship with an AD for many years. If they know you, you’re a local, been doing steady business with them for a long time, and are a polite and likable person, they may go to bat for you.

Despite that, depending on your market area, you may still need a significant amount of spending history to be allocated a stainless Daytona. In my AD area, even the janitors have more money than I! I lost my original AD a couple of years ago, and it’s an uphill battle.

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by franktehtank

Notice how crypto is up again? Follow the money! People are willing to buy watches directly with crypto gains to avoid paying capital gains taxes. When you're up several multiples of your original investment, and stand to lose a large portion to the tax man, those prices don't seem so crazy.

I personally think a large portion of the Rolex hype/flippable brands market is driven by this type of tax evasion.

Do you trade crypto or do you make any type of crypto transactions yourself? This is not how crypto works. Maybe in the movies or TV shows because it's all mysterious and sounds cool on TV, but this is not how it works in the real world. Every single crypto transaction is a reported and potentially taxable event just like buying stock or any other tradeable asset is. When you buy any denomination, that's reported and forms your cost basis. When you sell even a few cents worth, that's also reported regardless of whether you bought a stick of gum with it at a store that accepts crypto or you bought a watch or car, or you pulled some out to spend on hookers and blow. It's all logged and reported.

At the end of the tax year on the federal 1040 tax return there is a form where you then self report all of your crypto transactions for the year and you pay normal capital gains taxes on it. Remember, your broker or whatever platform you are using for trading the crypto has already reported all of your transactions to the IRS through their own annual reporting, so it's now up to you to make sure you self report it accurately on your end when you file for that tax year so it matches up with what they reported, just like you have to do with any stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, options, etc. you sold that year. Robinhood, Coinbase, and other platforms try to make it easy by providing you with a year-end summary of all of your crypto transactions for the tax year from depositing, trading or withdrawing, but they all recommend that you also keep your own records and keep track of any purchases you make with crypto online or at merchants who accept it so you can reference back to the line item on the annual summary to know what it was for.

Bobby Axelrod likes to pay his guys with crypto on a thumb drive when they do shady stuff for him and it makes for great TV, but that's not how it works for the rest of us.

[Monty22]

Originally Posted by VegasBaby

Another one of these threads .....we get it.........you can't get the SS model you want at an AD..............move on...............whining and complaining on TRF won't help.

Thank you! There aren’t any “AD games” going on. Supply has way outstrips demand and any retailer would save things that are in high demand for their best customers. Just because you have $10-$15,000 of room on your credit card or in your bank account, it does not make you special. Sorry


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[bob sims]

Originally Posted by Mendota

That is exactly what fueled the tulip mania. It was resellers buying tulip options, not even the actual bulbs because they hadn't even been grown yet. The banks were lending on the tulip options, so resellers would buy the tulip options and levered themselves up 10:1. Then they would turn around and sell the option to another flipper. The original party then paid back their loan and kept the profit. The next party had often times already gone to the same bank and levered up 10:1 themselves for that same option, so they had to find a 3rd party now to sell to, repay the loan, and walk away with profit. Sometimes the same option traded hands 10 times in a single day, with all of the buyers using 10:1 leverage and scalping profits each time. It wasn't until the first bank saw this and said no, we are taking away the leverage, that the rest of the banks also took away the leverage and the music stopped playing.

On top of that everyone couldn't conduct their normal, routine businesses because the Black Plague was sweeping through Europe at the time and Holland was getting hit. The Black Plague virus pandemic created a situation of easy money with the banks and bored/desperate merchants, all wanting to trade and make easy profits with these tulip options.

To quote the venerable Yogi Berra, it's Deja Vu all over again!

People pay over a million dollars for a piece of cardboard 52 Mantle card that sold for half a penny I believe.
No second hand!