BLNR Price Crash

[espanol]

Originally Posted by pearson1995

The 11 series will always be the first two coloured ceramic Rolex. Being the first imo in time will be looked back on as an icon of the 6 digits.

Could be, but I don't think having the provenance of "first colored ceramic bezel" is anything of importance. Who knows though.

We can skew anything to have some title of first, but first place doesn't always matter.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

The Rolex and AD will try their best to continue the charade while the secondary watch market is the place where we can really see the price and demand trends.

Offering watches at MSRP and being prepared to give discounts if demand falls is a charade?

[Podmornica]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

Offering watches at MSRP and being prepared to give discounts if demand falls is a charade?

No. The AD will try to to maintain the perception of scarcity as long as possible so the buyers can still have the sense of being rewarded by their call and so they can maintain the desirability of the brand. Because, once you can get something easily, you don't want it anymore. People want what they can't have. Psychology 101.

Quite a few examples here where buyers got cold feet once the AD called them sooner than expected (within a few weeks compared to a few months back in 2020) for certain references thus creating the effect that these watches are not that hard to come by anymore and that the buyers will likely lose 20% of the value of the watch as soon as they get out of the store if they decide to sell them or if they are in suddenly in need of a cash after the purchase.

Not to mention that at this point probably 50% those who are clogging the waiting lists are flippers who are interested in nothing but a quick profit. Once they realize there's no profit to be made they will move to something else.

We will likely never see the watch hype in our lifetime again as we did in 2019-2022. This is now a whole different world compared to 2020 in terms of helicopter money and lock down effect. Trend is also changing and the hype is moving to something else as with everything in history.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

No. The AD will try to to maintain the perception of scarcity as long as possible so the buyers can still have the sense of being rewarded by their call and so they can maintain the desirability of the brand. Because, once you can get something easily, you don't want it anymore. People want what they can't have. Psychology 101.

More like uninformed, gullible people 101. Maybe that's what psychology is.

I can't understand how walking into a shop and buying something I want is less desirable than not being able to. But I guess that's my problem to deal with!

At the moment I'm waiting for a high demand camera. The internet was on fire about it. Everybody wants one. I wish everybody would stop wanting one so that I could buy mine.

[courboy]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

More like uninformed, gullible people 101. Maybe that's what psychology is.

I can't understand how walking into a shop and buying something I want is less desirable than not being able to. But I guess that's my problem to deal with!

At the moment I'm waiting for a high demand camera. The internet was on fire about it. Everybody wants one. I wish everybody would stop wanting one so that I could buy mine.

Leica Q3? Hoping to get mine soon but the dealer is saying another 6 months in reality.

[fskywalker]

Originally Posted by denmanproject

Pro tip - pay retail and not give a flying crap about grey prices

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[Rico_Brasole]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

The Rolex and AD will try their best to continue the charade while the secondary watch market is the place where we can really see the price and demand trends.

Greys are holding out as well. My grey dealer has 3 Kermit’s and can’t move them at current prices. Lowering the prices will eat into already slim margins and set a precedence.


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[Radbloke]

126710BLNR full set, just sold $14,200.

[Radbloke]

Originally Posted by Rico_Brasole

Greys are holding out as well. My grey dealer has 3 Kermit’s and can’t move them at current prices. Lowering the prices will eat into already slim margins and set a precedence.


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Holding old stock in hopes it will gain value in a falling market is not a great long-term business strategy.

[ThatOtherGuy7]

Originally Posted by Radbloke

126710BLNR full set, just sold $14,200.

Where? I’d like to buy one around $13.5-14K.

[Radbloke]

Originally Posted by ThatOtherGuy7

Where? I’d like to buy one around $13.5-14K.

Moda. Have patience my friend.

[ThatOtherGuy7]

Originally Posted by Radbloke

Moda. Have patience my friend.

Ah, okay. I’d prefer to buy from a reputable gray once prices drop to then. Wouldn’t mind spending an extra $1,500 or so over retail + tax vs waiting for AD.

[Rico_Brasole]

Originally Posted by Radbloke

Holding old stock in hopes it will gain value in a falling market is not a great long-term business strategy.

I’m not sure our resident Grey Dealers are Harvard educated MBAs here. They haven’t had to actually sale a watch in about 5-6 years, the market sold it for them.

The desperation is showing in their ads. A trusted seller is using the term “unworn condition”

BLNR is from 2019. In other words, this model has been polished and possibly laser welded to reflect unworn condition.

I’m going to enjoy the downfall. It’ll be fun to watch. We can go back to having 2-3 trusted sellers and the rest will be flushed out.

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[bmwsubmariner]

Originally Posted by Chewbacca

A quote is not cash. Many people say DavidRW will say it’s got a scratch and smells like a bottle of Creed spilled on it so it’s worth $7-$9k after it’s already in his gold plated hands!

Classic wholesaler wear down tactic!

(And Seikos and Casios are also watches part of this hobby)

Just curious, is this a common tactic now for David? To state that it has a small scratch or imperfection and lower the price once it's in his hands, even if disclosed up front? I haven't sold/traded with David in a few years, but I know Bobs is known for doing this.

[bmwsubmariner]

Thanks to those for posting what is really happening with the market and on MODA for those of us that aren't on Facebook much. When you look at gray prices and see them not moving, it gets frustrating when you're a watch enthusiast that wants to buy, not one that simply wants to flip. I understand all sides of the hobby and some wanting to flip and make money, others wanting a status symbol and others really enjoying watches and the history. Don't really care which category someone is in, but as someone that does want to purchase a watch that they've wanted for a while, seeing the market cool a bit is refreshing.

Will continue monitoring the 116500 market and if it drops enough in the next 6-12 months will go that direction. If gray prices remain nutty, will grab a 16570 most likely from a reputable vintage gray dealer and enjoy that for a few years. Have yet to try a 5 digit piece.

[Radbloke]

Originally Posted by bmwsubmariner

Thanks to those for posting what is really happening with the market and on MODA for those of us that aren't on Facebook much. When you look at gray prices and see them not moving, it gets frustrating when you're a watch enthusiast that wants to buy, not one that simply wants to flip. I understand all sides of the hobby and some wanting to flip and make money, others wanting a status symbol and others really enjoying watches and the history. Don't really care which category someone is in, but as someone that does want to purchase a watch that they've wanted for a while, seeing the market cool a bit is refreshing.

Will continue monitoring the 116500 market and if it drops enough in the next 6-12 months will go that direction. If gray prices remain nutty, will grab a 16570 most likely from a reputable vintage gray dealer and enjoy that for a few years. Have yet to try a 5 digit piece.

For the big greys to start moving that needle, people need to stop handing over too much money. Thankfully that seems to be starting to happen. However, as we've discussed here a few times, the firsr of the 'hot' pieces to go up will usually be the last to come down. That means daytona I'm afraid. However, with this being one the super-hype models, it will continue to go down once the 12-series start hitting the market. The hype beasts hate an old model. 11-series subs are selling under 10 now.

[joli160]

Originally Posted by Rico_Brasole

I’m not sure our resident Grey Dealers are Harvard educated MBAs here. They haven’t had to actually sale a watch in about 5-6 years, the market sold it for them.

The desperation is showing in their ads. A trusted seller is using the term “unworn condition”

BLNR is from 2019. In other words, this model has been polished and possibly laser welded to reflect unworn condition.

I’m going to enjoy the downfall. It’ll be fun to watch. We can go back to having 2-3 trusted sellers and the rest will be flushed out.

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You seem to forget that there are a lot of very honest people who will never use the tactics you like us to believe.
I’ve bought many grey watches and not once it was not as described.

[bmwsubmariner]

Originally Posted by Radbloke

For the big greys to start moving that needle, people need to stop handing over too much money. Thankfully that seems to be starting to happen. However, as we've discussed here a few times, the firsr of the 'hot' pieces to go up will usually be the last to come down. That means daytona I'm afraid. However, with this being one the super-hype models, it will continue to go down once the 12-series start hitting the market. The hype beasts hate an old model. 11-series subs are selling under 10 now.

Appreciate the insight - I’m always expecting 116500’s to be $5-10k above retail. But the current $10-15k is where it starts getting a bit crazy for me. If in the next year they’re low to mid $20s, that’s perfect. Or, I’ll reach out to gray dealers to see where they’re at regarding pricing. Don’t like to waste dealers time, but it seems that a lot of watches are on consignment now, so people may be willing to take a couple thousand dollars less than asking price if they bought at retail.

[njlam]

Anyone have any recent luck getting one at MSRP?

[Polarexplorerii]

Originally Posted by njlam

Anyone have any recent luck getting one at MSRP?

Check out my post I just got the call from my AD on 10-6, I waited 3 yrs for one. I was so curious to see was a grey would pay so as soon as I walked out the AD, I sent them pic's and they immediately called me and only offered me $14K!!!