AD today: "They're coming"

[tmilnthorp]

Originally Posted by Rexplorer214270

Are you talking about ALS, Vacheron, JLC? Being part of the Richemont group and publicly traded has not seem to hurt their resale value....

Good point!

[Cuts33]

Originally Posted by tmilnthorp

One of my favorite brands is part of a giant publicly-owned company that must sell as many watches as possible to satiate the share holders. Lemme tell you what it does for resale...

*Cries in Omega

Very small minority of customers of any brand give any thought to resale when purchasing a watch.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by SubMillennial

Does China get watches in proportion to their population or the same allotment as always? Is this known? I wonder if it's like a five year wait over there just to get a Milgauss

Not sure what Rolex’s considerations are in deciding how much stock to allocate to each country, but I’m pretty sure sales figures (current and expected) play a much larger part than population per se.

China and India have been the most populous countries for the longest time but Rolex never shipped much, if any to either country until recently.

And there’s no waitlist for watches in China (or pretty anywhere in Asia).

You either have an in with someone with the power to allocate the watches, bundle as instructed or be an established spender.

No such thing as an AD in Asia today that allows anyone to walk out with any popular model at msrp. And everything is popular in Asia today.

Although Expressions of interests are granted to the walk ins who simply won’t take no for an answer.


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[dannyp]

Originally Posted by Fencer28

However the current state of the Rolex market is definitely a bubble. I think going forward in 2022 it will be somewhere between pre-2017 and now in terms of demand.

Originally Posted by kearez

Rolex to ramp up production would need more highly skilled and trained workers, which take years to add their work force. If it takes a AP 10 years to qualify a watch maker, I’m sure Rolex is 2-3 minimum.

And here I think we have the calculus going through Rolex HQ's collective mind to ensure that the current market is treated as a balloon (which can be inflated/deflated in a slow, controlled way) and not a bubble (that just keeps growing until it pops).

I'm sure Rolex would be happy to produce and sell 1.1m watches next year; it's not Patek and has always pride itself on scale. But you can't do that for just a year or two; justifying that ramp-up means predicting such demand well into the future. Otherwise either the market will end up flooded with 200,000 extra unsold watches, or Rolex becomes something you buy at 30% off.

I'm sure the present situation is the lesser of two evils from the Rolex perspective.

[drfrankenstein]

Just want to provide a counterpoint to the increased production problems. Increasing production doesn't necessary mean extensive investment and a long term commitment - simply keeping the factory open longer could increased production up to 20% or more. I'm not saying Rolex should do this (maybe it's not even possible given their contracts and laws) but it is a solution which would allow for more production without significant increase in capital and could be scaled back when necessary. This is something anyone in a business would do first before putting more capital into infrastructure.

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by drfrankenstein

Just want to provide a counterpoint to the increased production problems. Increasing production doesn't necessary mean extensive investment and a long term commitment - simply keeping the factory open longer could increased production up to 20% or more. I'm not saying Rolex should do this (maybe it's not even possible given their contracts and laws) but it is a solution which would allow for more production without significant increase in capital and could be scaled back when necessary. This is something anyone in a business would do first before putting more capital into infrastructure.

Spot on Dr F. Thanks for sharing your insight.

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by drfrankenstein

Just want to provide a counterpoint to the increased production problems. Increasing production doesn't necessary mean extensive investment and a long term commitment - simply keeping the factory open longer could increased production up to 20% or more. I'm not saying Rolex should do this (maybe it's not even possible given their contracts and laws) but it is a solution which would allow for more production without significant increase in capital and could be scaled back when necessary. This is something anyone in a business would do first before putting more capital into infrastructure.

This assumes that there are sufficient qualified watchmakers (that don't have to either be trained or recruited away from competitors). Parts manufacturing, yes, but that doesn't strike me as where the bottlenecks are.

[Lukebennett21]

Spoke to my AD today as well and they reported that supply seems to be increasing but even still demand is increasing at a faster rate. Good to know people are getting off of the waiting list though!

[McinRolex]

Originally Posted by Lukebennett21

Spoke to my AD today as well and they reported that supply seems to be increasing but even still demand is increasing at a faster rate. Good to know people are getting off of the waiting list though!

I heard that before.

[superspectral]

Waiting, waiting, waiting...12 weeks so far on DJ special order. That doesn't sound long, reading these threads.

[drfrankenstein]

Originally Posted by dannyp

This assumes that there are sufficient qualified watchmakers (that don't have to either be trained or recruited away from competitors). Parts manufacturing, yes, but that doesn't strike me as where the bottlenecks are.

They could use the watchmakers they have and have them work longer hours. Again, not saying they could or should but it’s the first thing you would do to increase production.

[1665fan]

Tudor has no problem pumping them out.....I guess there in a Covid free area..

[teck21]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Tudor has no problem pumping them out.....I guess there in a Covid free area..

You’re right, definitely nothing to do with Tudor demand being much lower than Rolex.


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[dannyp]

Originally Posted by drfrankenstein

They could use the watchmakers they have and have them work longer hours. Again, not saying they could or should but it’s the first thing you would do to increase production.

I am not a watchmaker, but I feel that the strain on the hands and eyes would preclude significantly longer hours (or that those hours would come with diminishing returns).

[Johngalt1]

Originally Posted by drfrankenstein

They could use the watchmakers they have and have them work longer hours. Again, not saying they could or should but it’s the first thing you would do to increase production.

These are highly trained professionals who simply won’t be forced to overwork - they could jump ship and go elsewhere. On top of that, particularly in Switzerland, I wouldn’t be surprised if there are labor contracts and/or unions preventing them from getting pushed too much. This isn’t sweatshop work where one cog in the machine can be exchanged for another.

[SubMillennial]

Rolex SA may be privately owned but at some point if demand keeps going up, despite aspirations of PP/AP/ALS levels of status, in which case the company might view shortages as a branding strategy, eventually a point will be reached where too much money is being left on the table and either supply will be boosted or prices will be raised across the board. Moving up a tier in perceived status might be desirable but I doubt they would do so at the expense of potentially billions more in revenue. It’s not a charity, after all.

[RolexSimon]

Just looking at this table (in CHF). Why would Rolex want to increase sales any more? Approach Longines or Swatch? Sure - wind back up to pre-COVID levels of 800,000-1M per annum but that's not going to result in the changes many members seem to think is desirable. Stopping ADs flipping to Grey. Non-transferrable warranties, tracking serial numbers to spot flippers - all would make a difference.

[Sunny_Submariner]

Originally Posted by Seddyspaghetti

Wishful thinking. But only time will tell.

Pun intended?

[flauntes]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Tudor has no problem pumping them out.....I guess there in a Covid free area..

hahahahahahahahahahahahh

[jstan9]

Originally Posted by Keanuchan

Thanks for the info. Honestly I am sick of this kind of waiting game, like I am begging them, excuse me I am the customer to spend money on...
afterall it is JUST a watch!!! Will return when this crazy market becomes "normal", doesn't mind to wait for years or decades. Hahaha.

I’m with you. I’ve decided to sit out the frenzy. I’d love to add to my humble collection and don’t understand why Rolex is leaving money on the table by constricting supply and leaving the delta to the gray dealers (and more power to them, they’re providing product in a cartel-controlled market). I just don’t get it. It’s exhausting. And, as you say, it’s just a watch in the end.

[drfrankenstein]

Originally Posted by Johngalt1

These are highly trained professionals who simply won’t be forced to overwork - they could jump ship and go elsewhere. On top of that, particularly in Switzerland, I wouldn’t be surprised if there are labor contracts and/or unions preventing them from getting pushed too much. This isn’t sweatshop work where one cog in the machine can be exchanged for another.

I'm a highly trained professional also, more so than a watchmaker in fact, and I'd work extra hours if the price was right. It's not brain surgery to make watches. I'm glad we have a representative from the Swiss Watch Makers Union on TRF however....

[pwf6031]

Originally Posted by drfrankenstein

I'm a highly trained professional also, more so than a watchmaker in fact, and I'd work extra hours if the price was right. It's not brain surgery to make watches. I'm glad we have a representative from the Swiss Watch Makers Union on TRF however....

To some people — in fact a lot of people — money is not the end all in life. Money and time are both currencies. I would not work more for any additional amount of money. I have enough money but sadly can not buy any additional time.

[TimeAZ]

Originally Posted by pwf6031

To some people — in fact a lot of people — money is not the end all in life. Money and time are both currencies. I would not work more for any additional amount of money. I have enough money but sadly can not buy any additional time.

Well said!

[drfrankenstein]

Originally Posted by pwf6031

To some people — in fact a lot of people — money is not the end all in life. Money and time are both currencies. I would not work more for any additional amount of money. I have enough money but sadly can not buy any additional time.

This literally has no bearing on the conversation or context.

[VacherObsessive]

Originally Posted by drfrankenstein

I'm a highly trained professional also, more so than a watchmaker in fact, and I'd work extra hours if the price was right. It's not brain surgery to make watches. I'm glad we have a representative from the Swiss Watch Makers Union on TRF however....

Classic

But I think the average Swiss working/middle class would rather have time than money, it’s the European way - they have a simpler way of life, unlike the American work culture ie work until you drop to get that extra bit of coin. The Swiss if on the French side will be having 2 large glasses of cognac with their 2 hour lunch break, much like the French, one would expect. They don’t eat at their desk

[garyk]

Originally Posted by RolexSimon

Just looking at this table (in CHF). Why would Rolex want to increase sales any more? Approach Longines or Swatch? Sure - wind back up to pre-COVID levels of 800,000-1M per annum but that's not going to result in the changes many members seem to think is desirable. Stopping ADs flipping to Grey. Non-transferrable warranties, tracking serial numbers to spot flippers - all would make a difference.

Wow, interesting numbers! Thx for posting...

[drfrankenstein]

Originally Posted by VacherObsessive

Classic

But I think the average Swiss working/middle class would rather have time than money, it’s the European way - they have a simpler way of life, unlike the American work culture ie work until you drop to get that extra bit of coin. The Swiss if on the French side will be having 2 large glasses of cognac with their 2 hour lunch break, much like the French, one would expect. They don’t eat at their desk

Two hours lunch breaks while getting sauced is the reason for the watch shortage!

[MONTANTK]

I wonder how much of the demand issue stems from Rolex not allowing ADs to order specific items. Basically Rolex sends them whatever they want. I bet that has A TON to do with the current market

[Computantis]

Originally Posted by drfrankenstein

Two hours lunch breaks while getting sauced is the reason for the watch shortage!

And you know... I’m ok with that. As long as they don’t track their lunch breaks with would-be watches for us D:

[TimeAZ]

Originally Posted by VacherObsessive

Classic

But I think the average Swiss working/middle class would rather have time than money, it’s the European way - they have a simpler way of life, unlike the American work culture ie work until you drop to get that extra bit of coin. The Swiss if on the French side will be having 2 large glasses of cognac with their 2 hour lunch break, much like the French, one would expect. They don’t eat at their desk

So true.

In America, you live to work.
In Europe, you work to live.