True collectors and the tanking Rolex market

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by droso

Prices are dropping, but can you really see a blro dropping £9k to last summer’s levels when they were already double msrp? At this point everyone was still complaining secondary prices were insane! I find it hard to believe that the Rolex clientele will be passing up on new stock from ADs because of inflation/energy prices - most will be the top 1% of earners so demand will remain high and supply low. We will have to see how it pans out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

£17k (last summer roughly) would be $22k today. And that’s with the atrocious sterling rate. Yes, I absolutely do see it achieving those levels. They’re not far off at wholesale prices.

[JSolution]

These threads about people hoping the market crashes are ridiculous to me:

Why on earth would anyone want the value of their assets to crash? The only people who are hoping so must be people that can’t afford to buy the watches at current market prices, which tells me that really they even with another 20 percent drop that means you really are over stretching and shouldn’t be buying them anyway.

Anyone in the right mind with with a Rolex, or watch collection surely aren’t hoping that should they ever want to sell/ trade out they’re going to receive thousands upon thousands less than what they would of?

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by JSolution

These threads about people hoping the market crashes are ridiculous to me:

Why on earth would anyone want the value of their assets to crash? The only people who are hoping so must be people that can’t afford to buy the watches at current market prices, which tells me that really they even with another 20 percent drop that means you really are over stretching and shouldn’t be buying them anyway.

Anyone in the right mind with with a Rolex, or watch collection surely aren’t hoping that should they ever want to sell/ trade out they’re going to receive thousands upon thousands less than what they would of?

Personally I just want the flipper and investor bros to clear off. If this is what it takes that’s fine.

[Chris]

Originally Posted by JSolution

These threads about people hoping the market crashes are ridiculous to me:

Why on earth would anyone want the value of their assets to crash? The only people who are hoping so must be people that can’t afford to buy the watches at current market prices, which tells me that really they even with another 20 percent drop that means you really are over stretching and shouldn’t be buying them anyway.

Anyone in the right mind with with a Rolex, or watch collection surely aren’t hoping that should they ever want to sell/ trade out they’re going to receive thousands upon thousands less than what they would of?

[interestedinwatches]

Originally Posted by JSolution

These threads about people hoping the market crashes are ridiculous to me:

Why on earth would anyone want the value of their assets to crash? The only people who are hoping so must be people that can’t afford to buy the watches at current market prices, which tells me that really they even with another 20 percent drop that means you really are over stretching and shouldn’t be buying them anyway.

Anyone in the right mind with with a Rolex, or watch collection surely aren’t hoping that should they ever want to sell/ trade out they’re going to receive thousands upon thousands less than what they would of?

Because it would be nice to actually not have to wait years if not infinitely long for a piece at the AD.

Because it would be nice to enjoy the watches for what they are rather than investment pieces.

Because it would be nice to accidentally scratch a watch because that is what they are and not worry about the price tanking.

Because it would be nice to actually walk around with a watch on your wrist without alerting potential thieves that they can score a shit ton of money by robbing you.

[rolexpure]

Originally Posted by JSolution

Anyone in the right mind with with a Rolex, or watch collection surely aren’t hoping that should they ever want to sell/ trade out they’re going to receive thousands upon thousands less than what they would of?

My Current collection consists of the below

RG DD40 Olive
RG DD40 Chocolate
YG DD40 Silver Motif
116618LB
126715CHNR
126710BLNR
116610LV
116500LN White and Black dial

To me I'm glad prices are dropping. Yeah my entire watch collection just dropped 20-30% but who cares? I dont because I'm not selling (except maybe the CHNR).

I never bought anything I cant afford and yes I did pay gray market for some pieces. I honestly just want all the artificial flippers gone and all the guys pumping an artificial market gone. These guys are a virus to the hobby.

We need the market to drop and stabilise. Its better for everyone long term. NOTHING repeat NOTHING goes up and up and up and up forever. This is HEALTHY for the watch game.

[JSolution]

Originally Posted by interestedinwatches

Because it would be nice to actually not have to wait years if not infinitely long for a piece at the AD.

Because it would be nice to enjoy the watches for what they are rather than investment pieces.

Because it would be nice to accidentally scratch a watch because that is what they are and not worry about the price tanking.

Because it would be nice to actually walk around with a watch on your wrist without alerting potential thieves that they can score a shit ton of money by robbing you.

So to put it into context, let’s say you bought yourself a Rolex submariner 126610ln at current market price, without checking let’s say this figure is £13k now you’re buying with the intention to wear, let’s say you should have already factored in to lose ten per cent when you sell it, now you have scratched it you have lost what maybe a further £1k? All secondary market watches have been polished to look like new anyway (unless they are new) which bring me back to my original point, if you’re concerned about losing an extra grand because you have scratched it, in my opinion, you can’t afford it.

[minute_man]

Originally Posted by JSolution

These threads about people hoping the market crashes are ridiculous to me:

Why on earth would anyone want the value of their assets to crash? The only people who are hoping so must be people that can’t afford to buy the watches at current market prices, which tells me that really they even with another 20 percent drop that means you really are over stretching and shouldn’t be buying them anyway.

Anyone in the right mind with with a Rolex, or watch collection surely aren’t hoping that should they ever want to sell/ trade out they’re going to receive thousands upon thousands less than what they would of?

And there lies another part of the problem. The measuring contest.

[JSolution]

Originally Posted by rolexpure

My Current collection consists of the below

RG DD40 Olive
RG DD40 Chocolate
YG DD40 Silver Motif
116618LB
126715CHNR
126710BLNR
116610LV
116500LN White and Black dial

To me I'm glad prices are dropping. Yeah my entire watch collection just dropped 20-30% but who cares? I dont because I'm not selling (except maybe the CHNR).

I never bought anything I cant afford and yes I did pay gray market for some pieces. I honestly just want all the artificial flippers gone and all the guys pumping an artificial market gone. These guys are a virus to the hobby.

We need the market to drop and stabilise. Its better for everyone long term. NOTHING repeat NOTHING goes up and up and up and up forever. This is HEALTHY for the watch game.

Really nice collection - mine is similar and also all bought grey - I’m not losing sleep over prices as like you I’ve built a collection to enjoy, however if and I mean IF I wanted to sell my platinum Daytona which I could of sold for £200k or so a month or two ago, I would now be closer to £150k I don’t not see this as a positive and want it to further come down - as an owner. If I were lusting after pieces I can’t afford I’m sure I would be in the other camp.

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by JSolution

These threads about people hoping the market crashes are ridiculous to me:

Why on earth would anyone want the value of their assets to crash? The only people who are hoping so must be people that can’t afford to buy the watches at current market prices, which tells me that really they even with another 20 percent drop that means you really are over stretching and shouldn’t be buying them anyway.

Anyone in the right mind with with a Rolex, or watch collection surely aren’t hoping that should they ever want to sell/ trade out they’re going to receive thousands upon thousands less than what they would of?

mmmmmmm, goodness me.

May the force be with you Luke.

[rolexpure]

Originally Posted by JSolution

Really nice collection - mine is similar and also all bought grey - I’m not losing sleep over prices as like you I’ve built a collection to enjoy, however if and I mean IF I wanted to sell my platinum Daytona which I could of sold for £200k or so a month or two ago, I would now be closer to £150k I don’t not see this as a positive and want it to further come down - as an owner. If I were lusting after pieces I can’t afford I’m sure I would be in the other camp.

Buying at these prices as an end user your always risking it to drop. Paying these overinflated prices in the first place puts yourself and anyone else in a position whereby you can probably afford it but there is always a chance to lose a significant amount of money. Especially those higher priced pieces.

The market should not be like this in the very first place. Paying 10% above MSRP is OK. Paying 20% above is probably ok as well. Paying 200%-300% above retail is just stupid.

I personally know someone holding 12 x YG John Mayor Daytona's. He doesn't even wear a damn watch for the last 35+ years and hates them. Full speculative buy and now he's rushing around every gray dealer local to him trying to offload. They dropped $50k a pop now at the dealer prices so he's down half a million.

This is the type of speculation I want gone. It puts the dealer at risk, the flipper at risk and also the end user who will eventually buys it at these crazy prices at risk. The entire watch market should not be in that position to begin with in the first place.

[David001]

Whatever happens will happen whether any of us want it or not.

Whilst I don't wish financial misfortune on anyone, you have to be pragmatic, someone has to lose when markets spiral up and then down quickly.

[dantay]

Originally Posted by minute_man

And there lies another part of the problem. The measuring contest.

It’s funny because it’s true.

[David001]

Originally Posted by JSolution

Really nice collection - mine is similar and also all bought grey - I’m not losing sleep over prices as like you I’ve built a collection to enjoy, however if and I mean IF I wanted to sell my platinum Daytona which I could of sold for £200k or so a month or two ago, I would now be closer to £150k I don’t not see this as a positive and want it to further come down - as an owner. If I were lusting after pieces I can’t afford I’m sure I would be in the other camp.

If you bought all those at grey prices and can't afford to lose all the money you have tied up in them then it's YOU that can't afford those watches.

I have a decent collection too, but as I said before, you could throw my whole collection into the river and it wouldn't affect me financially, I'd just mourn the loss of my watches.

[JSolution]

Originally Posted by rolexpure

Buying at these prices as an end user your always risking it to drop. Paying these overinflated prices in the first place puts yourself and anyone else in a position whereby you can probably afford it but there is always a chance to lose a significant amount of money. Especially those higher priced pieces.

The market should not be like this in the very first place. Paying 10% above MSRP is OK. Paying 20% above is probably ok as well. Paying 200%-300% above retail is just stupid.

I personally know someone holding 12 x YG John Mayor Daytona's. He doesn't even wear a damn watch for the last 35+ years and hates them. Full speculative buy and now he's rushing around every gray dealer local to him trying to offload. They dropped $50k a pop now at the dealer prices so he's down half a million.

This is the type of speculation I want gone. It puts the dealer at risk, the flipper at risk and also the end user who will eventually buys it at these crazy prices at risk. The entire watch market should not be in that position to begin with in the first place.

Oh I do agree with you and I don’t usually engage in these type of discussions - I paid less than retail for my platinum Daytona because that’s what it traded for that the time. I actually expected to take a loss on many of the watches I bought.

Here’s an example from my personal perspective - I wanted to buy a RG 5711 I had an opportunity at £80k and passed on it - we’ll look at the prices of those now. Would I buy one if It came back down to 120? Absolutely.

[David001]

Originally Posted by JSolution

Here’s an example from my personal perspective - I wanted to buy a RG 5711 I had an opportunity at £80k and passed on it - we’ll look at the prices of those now. Would I buy one if It came back down to 120? Absolutely.

I don't think there is anything wrong with looking back and acknowledging a missed opportunity to make money.

But watch collecting has become so much about the money now that it's not the same hobby it used to be and I'm not sure it's fair to be run up on a guilt trip for wishing that it would stop.

We're all adults and if some people overextended themselves financially and now might lose money during a price crash then that's on them.

[APPRF]

Originally Posted by rolexpure

My Current collection consists of the below

RG DD40 Olive
RG DD40 Chocolate
YG DD40 Silver Motif
116618LB
126715CHNR
126710BLNR
116610LV
116500LN White and Black dial

To me I'm glad prices are dropping. Yeah my entire watch collection just dropped 20-30% but who cares? I dont because I'm not selling (except maybe the CHNR).

I never bought anything I cant afford and yes I did pay gray market for some pieces. I honestly just want all the artificial flippers gone and all the guys pumping an artificial market gone. These guys are a virus to the hobby.

We need the market to drop and stabilise. Its better for everyone long term. NOTHING repeat NOTHING goes up and up and up and up forever. This is HEALTHY for the watch game.

100% agree with this, let's hope it goes down further so that who can't buy their dream Rolex, or wants to complete his collection can do so with reasonable prices.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by brucethemanlee

Doesn't matter
Up a million
Down a million
What's the big deal?

Yip,small change .






Meanwhile back at the ranch,got my Panerai collection up and running big time ,got some funky rubber OEM straps ..lets play .FUN time !
Really like what Panerai is doing again ,they will be on the up !

You Rolex only angst owners,having fun ?? or just watching diminishing returns on the little precious ?

[warren G.]

Originally Posted by rolexpure

We need the market to drop and stabilise. Its better for everyone long term. NOTHING repeat NOTHING goes up and up and up and up forever. This is HEALTHY for the watch game.

Bingo... people have been SUPER spoiled with these stupid gains. I'm talking about gains in general (crypto, trading cards/sport cards, sneakers, stocks etc.) My other hobbies are experiencing market downturn.

I laughed every single time somebody mentioned that if Rolex price / supply was "attainable" or wasn't so hype up, than nobody wouldn't want it. That's complete bull****, I was very active in the early days and Rolex was being bought at a reasonable pace. While still maintain their values at whatever price they bought (retail or 10-15% discount.) If anybody was on this forum in the early days, they know we used to have way way more incoming thread, and virtually everyone was happy.

[ronricks]

The easiest way to ‘fix’ the Rolex market is for people on here to quit:

Buying from Grey Dealers
Selling new watches purchased at msrp to Grey Dealers

This would force prices downward. But people won’t stop doing this for some reason. Wishing for an economic downturn so you can purchase trivial wristwatches is insanity. We hold all the power not the Grey Dealers. Quit feeding them watches and quit buying from them at inflated prices. It wouldn’t take long to force prices downward and you wouldn’t have to suffer through an economic downturn.

[minute_man]

Originally Posted by ronricks

The easiest way to ‘fix’ the Rolex market is for people on here to quit:

Buying from Grey Dealers
Selling new watches purchased at msrp to Grey Dealers

This would force prices downward. But people won’t stop doing this for some reason. Wishing for an economic downturn so you can purchase trivial wristwatches is insanity. We hold all the power not the Grey Dealers. Quit feeding them watches and quit buying from them at inflated prices. It wouldn’t take long to force prices downward and you wouldn’t have to suffer through an economic downturn.

Well said. But unfortunately, people are doing it for a quite a few reasons. All having much to do with human nature's worst traits and nothing to do with a hobby.
Wishing for an economic collapse so as to purchase a watch on the cheap is plain stupid. People could just vote with their wallet and refrain from paying silly prices. But it's all about the measuring contest and chest thumping.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by JSolution

if you’re concerned about losing an extra grand because you have scratched it, in my opinion, you can’t afford it.

Nail, head bang!

But this assumes you are speaking in the context of buying within your available budget (not piling up debt), getting pride and enjoyment out of wearing it for years to come, in the expectation of a long operational life, low maintenance requirements, the ability to take a knock without falling to bits, and the possibility of it having some residual value above zero if you sell it on or give it to someone.

I'm not sure that some people even wear the watches they buy. I am more reluctant than I used to be about wearing a Hulk or Pepsi or Sky Dweller in any situation, but that's not for fear of scratching it.

[amh]

Originally Posted by JSolution

These threads about people hoping the market crashes are ridiculous to me:

Why on earth would anyone want the value of their assets to crash? The only people who are hoping so must be people that can’t afford to buy the watches at current market prices, which tells me that really they even with another 20 percent drop that means you really are over stretching and shouldn’t be buying them anyway.

Anyone in the right mind with with a Rolex, or watch collection surely aren’t hoping that should they ever want to sell/ trade out they’re going to receive thousands upon thousands less than what they would of?

Sure they're assets but they weren't purchased as assets - they're for wearing. I'm looking forward to a crash. As the world economy slows this Tulip Mania will soon be over, the Flippers and Greys are only using these watches as monopoly money.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by JSolution

Really nice collection - mine is similar and also all bought grey - I’m not losing sleep over prices as like you I’ve built a collection to enjoy, however if and I mean IF I wanted to sell my platinum Daytona which I could of sold for £200k or so a month or two ago, I would now be closer to £150k I don’t not see this as a positive and want it to further come down - as an owner. If I were lusting after pieces I can’t afford I’m sure I would be in the other camp.

+1.

I can relate to your platinum Daytona chat, I'm in a similar position with a 5712A I bought in 2011. I certainly didn't buy this watch as "an investment": I have a stock portfolio for that, and the Nautilus wasn't the cult watch it has since become. I'm not quite enough of a genius to have predicted this phenomenon.

Some people on this forum are seeming to take extraordinary delight in the idea that their fellow watch-collectors have, or are about to, lost (notional) money. This Schadenfreude and general attitude towards their fellow collector, I think, merits some calm introspection.

[JSolution]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

+1.

I can relate to your platinum Daytona chat, I'm in a similar position with a 5712A I bought in 2011. I certainly didn't buy this watch as "an investment": I have a stock portfolio for that, and the Nautilus wasn't the cult watch it has since become. I'm not quite enough of a genius to have predicted this phenomenon.

Some people on this forum are seeming to take extraordinary delight in the idea that their fellow watch-collectors have, or are about to, lost (notional) money. This Schadenfreude and general attitude towards their fellow collector, I think, merits some calm introspection.

Well said.

[S.Explorer]

An alternative view is that people are not wishing for economic collapse but a return to normality.

No relentless money printing / devaluation of currency, no hyper inflation, reasonable return on cash savings, reasonable reseller pricing, etc. We wouldn't have so many flippers seeking immediate gains.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by JSolution

Well said.

Funny, because I bought at MSRP and stand to lose a lot of this same notional $ if the market goes down, yet I hope it happens. How do you explain that?

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by S.Explorer

An alternative view is that people are not wishing for economic collapse but a return to normality.

No relentless money printing / devaluation of currency, no hyper inflation, reasonable return on cash savings, reasonable reseller pricing, etc. We wouldn't have so many flippers seeking immediate gains.

Bingo, well said!

[DonLee]

Originally Posted by ronricks

The easiest way to ‘fix’ the Rolex market is for people on here to quit:

Buying from Grey Dealers
Selling new watches purchased at msrp to Grey Dealers

This would force prices downward. But people won’t stop doing this for some reason. Wishing for an economic downturn so you can purchase trivial wristwatches is insanity. We hold all the power not the Grey Dealers. Quit feeding them watches and quit buying from them at inflated prices. It wouldn’t take long to force prices downward and you wouldn’t have to suffer through an economic downturn.

if fewer people sold watches to grey dealers, then grey market prices would be even higher, given less supply.

if people NEVER bought from grey dealers, then their only chance of getting a watch is through AD, both situations end with it being even harder for people to get a watch.

I know people just like to blame everything on grey dealers but so many people don't understand the logic behind the economics.

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by rolexpure

My Current collection consists of the below

RG DD40 Olive
RG DD40 Chocolate
YG DD40 Silver Motif
116618LB
126715CHNR
126710BLNR
116610LV
116500LN White and Black dial

To me I'm glad prices are dropping. Yeah my entire watch collection just dropped 20-30% but who cares? I dont because I'm not selling (except maybe the CHNR).

I never bought anything I cant afford and yes I did pay gray market for some pieces. I honestly just want all the artificial flippers gone and all the guys pumping an artificial market gone. These guys are a virus to the hobby.

We need the market to drop and stabilise. Its better for everyone long term. NOTHING repeat NOTHING goes up and up and up and up forever. This is HEALTHY for the watch game.

Same here. While it feels good to see your collection go up, it really matters none. I don't plan on selling so this is all a game really. A normalization is definitely welcome!