1675 bubble

[Shawnnyang]

With the recent 1675 price hike, it seems like theres been an unusually high amount of 1675s for sale on the boards recently. Does anyone else here think we're on the verge of a bubble?

[TimeToGo]

.
1675s have long being linked to market conditions. With the current correction in the Stock Market, lingering in the 10% range, the 1675 pricing remained steady. Most investors moved from the precious metals, specifically Gold, into the vintage sector of Rolex, particularly 1675s of the Pepsi specimen. Even though Coke was considered as the Real Thing...

As experienced with the tech and housing bubbles, the younger generation began to fear that soon there would be no more bubble gum. Then came the downfall in the Oil Industry / market / black gold. We have since began to stock pile Rolex lubricants because production is expected to be limited in the future. Also an indication as to why the 1675 Black insert pricing is in a major decline.

With interest rates inevitably going up, I think the 1675ers have begun to liquidate their stock piles to switch back into the Gold market...

I think this will be brutal! Gents this is a sign of things to come !!!!

I am going to Quicken Loans to refinance...

[joe100]

Originally Posted by TimeToGo

.
1675s have long being linked to market conditions. With the current correction in the Stock Market, lingering in the 10% range, the 1675 pricing remained steady. Most investors moved from the precious metals, specifically Gold, into the vintage sector of Rolex, particularly 1675s of the Pepsi specimen. Even though Coke was considered as the Real Thing...

As experienced with the tech and housing bubbles, the younger generation began to fear that soon there would be no more bubble gum. Then came the downfall in the Oil Industry / market / black gold. We have since began to stock pile Rolex lubricants because production is expected to be limited in the future. Also an indication as to why the 1675 Black insert pricing is in a major decline.

With interest rates inevitably going up, I think the 1675ers have begun to liquidate their stock piles to switch back into the Gold market...

I think this will be brutal! Gents this is a sign of things to come !!!!

I am going to Quicken Loans to refinance...

And at first I thought you were serious. Ha!

1675s are the popular item right now and prices have nearly doubled for some examples. Good for owners, bad for buyers. I don't see it as a bubble for the most part. They may come down a bit, but with most vintage rolex, we hardly see a crash.

[Shawnnyang]

Don't get me wrong, I'm a recent buyer as well, but some of these prices are getting ridiculous. An okay example seems to fetch 8k now whereas your looking into the five figures for a prestine matt dial.

[nsumner]

Originally Posted by TimeToGo

.
1675s have long being linked to market conditions. With the current correction in the Stock Market, lingering in the 10% range, the 1675 pricing remained steady. Most investors moved from the precious metals, specifically Gold, into the vintage sector of Rolex, particularly 1675s of the Pepsi specimen. Even though Coke was considered as the Real Thing...

As experienced with the tech and housing bubbles, the younger generation began to fear that soon there would be no more bubble gum. Then came the downfall in the Oil Industry / market / black gold. We have since began to stock pile Rolex lubricants because production is expected to be limited in the future. Also an indication as to why the 1675 Black insert pricing is in a major decline.

With interest rates inevitably going up, I think the 1675ers have begun to liquidate their stock piles to switch back into the Gold market...

I think this will be brutal! Gents this is a sign of things to come !!!!

I am going to Quicken Loans to refinance...

Just made my day.....thank you!

[TimeToGo]

The alternative to the 1675 bubble is the....
..
..
TROPIC 38

[springer]

Originally Posted by TimeToGo

The alternative to the 1675 bubble is the....
..
..
TROPIC 38

I love the "bubble" - especially one that is 2 1/2 magnification.

Bubble...no bubble!!!

[jfmiii]

it isnt just the plastic Pepsis, the 16700/16710 Pepsi is rising also. the fact is that rolex may never make another SS Pepsi GMT. if they do, it will be years into the future.

[mineral]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

it isnt just the plastic Pepsis, the 16700/16710 Pepsi is rising also. the fact is that rolex may never make another SS Pepsi GMT. if they do, it will be years into the future.

agreed that both 16700 and 16710 are good choices

[MitchSteel]

@TTG 👍That's awesome

[joe100]

I don't know why this thread hasn't found traction. Vintage GMT prices have been climbing all year and it seems each month I see record asking prices. Stainless is way up but TT seems to be increasing at a much more subdued pace. A rising tide lifts all boats I guess

[springer]

Originally Posted by joe100

I don't know why this thread hasn't found traction. Vintage GMT prices have been climbing all year and it seems each month I see record asking prices. Stainless is way up but TT seems to be increasing at a much more subdued pace. A rising tide lifts all boats I guess

This thread hasn't gained any traction because there is no bubble. The market is slow for everything, but a bubble, for GMTs or anything, I don't believe so. Additionally, it is not only slow for vintage Rolex, but the market for preowned, modern Rolex is also very slow - especially for the jewelery stores....and that is not a good sign for the state of the economy.

[Shawnnyang]

Not sure what to make of the situation if the market is slow for everything but somehow we're seeing record asking prices month after month.

[joe100]

Originally Posted by springer

This thread hasn't gained any traction because there is no bubble. The market is slow for everything, but a bubble, for GMTs or anything, I don't believe so. Additionally, it is not only slow for vintage Rolex, but the market for preowned, modern Rolex is also very slow - especially for the jewelery stores....and that is not a good sign for the state of the economy.

I don't believe there is a bubble either. I'm referring to the jump in 1675 and 16750 prices, which has nothing to do with the global economy as you elude.

I simply find it interesting.

You and I are never going to see eye to eye on much. That much is definately true

[rodwatch69]

Prices on 1675 GMTs have certainly seen a rise as of late. Do not base your opinions on the For Sale section of TRF. Very often a 1675 GMT will be listed at an absurd price only to have the seller say "On Hold Pending Funds" or "SOLD thanks TRF", when in fact the watch never got sold at all.

This is done to artificially show a jump in price when in fact there was never a buyer and the whole listing and sale was a sham.

I am not referring to anyone in particular, so I don't need to be flooded with PM's or comments. All I am saying is that just because you see a run of the mill 1675 get sold on the FS section for 10,11,12k doesn't mean it happened.

However, 1675 GMTs are certainly the hot model right now and have been for the last 6 months. They have seen a jump in prices, I think in part to the whole fuchsia insert phenomenon, and that it was undervalued for quite some time so it had to catch up with the subs and other sport models that had already popped.

[TimeToGo]

Originally Posted by rodwatch69

Prices on 1675 GMTs have certainly seen a rise as of late. Do not base your opinions on the For Sale section of TRF. Very often a 1675 GMT will be listed at an absurd price only to have the seller say "On Hold Pending Funds" or "SOLD thanks TRF", when in fact the watch never got sold at all.

This is done to artificially show a jump in price when in fact there was never a buyer and the whole listing and sale was a sham.

I am not referring to anyone in particular, so I don't need to be flooded with PM's or comments. All I am saying is that just because you see a run of the mill 1675 get sold on the FS section for 10,11,12k doesn't mean it happened.

However, 1675 GMTs are certainly the hot model right now and have been for the last 6 months. They have seen a jump in prices, I think in part to the whole fuchsia insert phenomenon, and that it was undervalued for quite some time so it had to catch up with the subs and other sport models that had already popped.

So let me see.. You throw a stone and hide and "do not want to be flooded with PM's or comments"...

Completely Groundless !

A Mod should truly look at your comment and basically DELETE it or make you respond to YOUR STUPID ALLEGATION!

Any person with two cells on their brain can do an advanced search on TRF to check in the FS Rolex Forum to see how many 1675s have sold. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure this out!

AND in reviewing the TRF SOLD results, these are RESPECTED members.

I denounce your CHEAP SHOT at TRF sellers and on the forum as a whole !!!

[Old Expat Beast]

Originally Posted by rodwatch69

Prices on 1675 GMTs have certainly seen a rise as of late. Do not base your opinions on the For Sale section of TRF. Very often a 1675 GMT will be listed at an absurd price only to have the seller say "On Hold Pending Funds" or "SOLD thanks TRF", when in fact the watch never got sold at all.

This is done to artificially show a jump in price when in fact there was never a buyer and the whole listing and sale was a sham.

I am not referring to anyone in particular, so I don't need to be flooded with PM's or comments. All I am saying is that just because you see a run of the mill 1675 get sold on the FS section for 10,11,12k doesn't mean it happened.

However, 1675 GMTs are certainly the hot model right now and have been for the last 6 months. They have seen a jump in prices, I think in part to the whole fuchsia insert phenomenon, and that it was undervalued for quite some time so it had to catch up with the subs and other sport models that had already popped.

Is this just a hunch or do you actually have some evidence for this assertion?

[springer]

Originally Posted by rodwatch69

Prices on 1675 GMTs have certainly seen a rise as of late. Do not base your opinions on the For Sale section of TRF. Very often a 1675 GMT will be listed at an absurd price only to have the seller say "On Hold Pending Funds" or "SOLD thanks TRF", when in fact the watch never got sold at all.

This is done to artificially show a jump in price when in fact there was never a buyer and the whole listing and sale was a sham.

I am not referring to anyone in particular, so I don't need to be flooded with PM's or comments. All I am saying is that just because you see a run of the mill 1675 get sold on the FS section for 10,11,12k doesn't mean it happened.

However, 1675 GMTs are certainly the hot model right now and have been for the last 6 months. They have seen a jump in prices, I think in part to the whole fuchsia insert phenomenon, and that it was undervalued for quite some time so it had to catch up with the subs and other sport models that had already popped.

This is a very provocative claim if true - when you wrote, "This is done to artificially show a jump in price when in fact there was never a buyer and the whole listing and sale was a sham."

I'm sure everyone would like to know who you are referring to, or is this just a libelous, baseless assertion on your part.

[springer]

Originally Posted by joe100

I don't believe there is a bubble either. I'm referring to the jump in 1675 and 16750 prices, which has nothing to do with the global economy as you elude.

I simply find it interesting.

You and I are never going to see eye to eye on much. That much is definately true

Joe, if it makes you feel better I do agree with the last line of your post

[Shawnnyang]

This thread definitely makes me feel better about my recent 9k purchase.

[watchcrank]

Originally Posted by springer

This thread hasn't gained any traction because there is no bubble. The market is slow for everything, but a bubble, for GMTs or anything, I don't believe so. Additionally, it is not only slow for vintage Rolex, but the market for preowned, modern Rolex is also very slow - especially for the jewelery stores....and that is not a good sign for the state of the economy.

I think it is slow for many of the higher ticket items. Local jewelers and watch sellers say same. Last four months dreadfully slow. And as I look for nice pieces for my own small collection I find very few nice "keepers". I seem to be buying run of the mill just to have something to sell or trade. (bad habit).
In example I bought yesterday a 16753 7 mil head only for $3100 & a 16750 head only 8.4 mil WG surround for $4200. Not much upside unless I manage a good trade.
I'd like to see things pick up for fall as would most.

[Rameez-Q]

Prices have generally gone up a fair bit, I just sold a GMT today and would struggle to find a crap model anywhere close to the price I sold it for. In the UK as general availability is less than the US prices are generally that bit higher.

[jfmiii]

i recently bought a matte 16750 with a 7836 after selling mine in 2013. i got the correct band from springer and sold the 7836. after swapping the band and installing a NOS crystal, im into the watch for ~$7500. im not qualified to say it is unpolished but the bevels and lugs are so crisp, i think it might be. it is in fantastic condition. jacek recently had an untouched black 16750 listed for $9200 and it sold. im guessing it sold for >$8500. springer would be better suited to tell you what original, patina'd examples are trading for. but my personal price history with this reference from buying it in 2007, selling in 2013 and buying again in 2015 are as follows:

2007: $1750
2013: $4750
2015: $7500

this watch recently sold on ebay for $9200, HEAD ONLY!

http://www.ebay.com/itm/231704243161

the fact is, acrylic Pepsis are just about $10k watches. is it a bubble? i dont think so. you have 5513s going for $10k for desirable watches. why cant 1675/16750s be worth the same? Rolex isnt making any more SS GMT Pepsis any time soon and all SS Pepsis are up. most mint pieces are bought and not sold; demand is strong for nice examples. who says these cant be $15-20k watches in 5 years? sounds crazy but so did a 100% price increase by 2015 if you were looking at them in 2012.

[springer]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

i recently bought a matte 16750 with a 7836 after selling mine in 2013. i got the correct band from springer and sold the 7836. after swapping the band and installing a NOS crystal, im into the watch for ~$7500. im not qualified to say it is unpolished but the bevels and lugs are so crisp, i think it might be. it is in fantastic condition. jacek recently had an untouched black 16750 listed for $9200 and it sold. im guessing it sold for >$8500. springer would be better suited to tell you what original, patina'd examples are trading for. but my personal price history with this reference from buying it in 2007, selling in 2013 and buying again in 2015 are as follows:

2007: $1750
2013: $4750
2015: $7500

this watch recently sold on ebay for $9200, HEAD ONLY!

the fact is, acrylic Pepsis are just about $10k watches. is it a bubble? i dont think so. you have 5513s going for $10k for desirable watches. why cant 1675/16750s be worth the same? Rolex isnt making any more SS GMT Pepsis any time soon and all SS Pepsis are up. most mint pieces are bought and not sold; demand is strong for nice examples. who says these cant be $15-20k watches in 5 years? sounds crazy but so did a 100% price increase by 2015 if you were looking at them in 2012.

John, I can't add too much but thanks for the thought. What I can expand on is, nice GMT 1675 examples bring $9,000 on up now. GMT 16750s are very close in price also. That's a 300% increase since mid-2007/2008. I haven't noticed that on other models, but possibly some of the popular sport models have appreciated just as much also. (If red Submariners were up 300% since the same time period, they would all be selling for $30,000 plus.)

GMTs have done well in the collector market. As collectors add them to their collections, the finer examples will slowly diminish (which seems to be happening now - not just with GMTs by other sport models) with the void being filled by average quality watches that will try to ride the 'coat tails" and prices of the higher quality watches.

Lastly, and in reply to the original post, I don't see any GMT 1675 bubble, but instead I see a lethargic market for vintage, preowned and new watches.

[nsumner]

It's very simple.....GMT's (1675/16750) were undervalued for many years. They are just catching up in price with the 4 digit Submariners, that they have lagged behind for many years. That's it! No conspiracy, no seller constructed shenanigans, certainly no bubble. A good example 1675 is just taking its rite full place next to an equal example 5513. In reality GMT's are still a bit less than a comparable 5513, so don't be surprised if their prices continue to increase closing the gap.

[harry in montreal]

I sold my 16750 to tourneau on sea dweller trade. I got 2700 back in 2005. I did very well at the time. A new Gmt is about 7500 At an AD. So I think a nice vintage 1675 shoukd be at least 25pct more than new. I have a 1675 with papers and I would not sell it for less than this. Harry