Why is 2018 going to be different?

[tbonesteak]

In every “SS Watches are Nowhere to be Found” thread, I feel like at least 1/3 to 1/2 of the posters have a similar response; “just wait until 2018.”

Their playbook has been excellent, they’ve created more demand than ever and possibly the ultimate luxury brand on Earth, can anyone who feels that the display cases will be filled to brim in 2018 explain why they feel that way?

I’m in the boat that says they’re going to let demand exceed supply again.

A) It has worked like magic for them
B) Exceeding demand will then curb it
C) Exclusivity fuels demand

[Clay]

You can't stop the rain...

You can't stem the tide...

And you can't predict what Rolex will do...

[Nikrnic]

So it makes sense while we scramble for and speculate on new product to buy the little elves are in their workshops churning out new little time machines for all, ready to open the floodates along with new pricing and sell all especially while the economy is hot. Just saying I see no sense on holding back any longer, the timing seems right for their end game.

[Shamorai]

You think too much

[GradyPhilpott]

Originally Posted by Clay

You can't stop the rain...

You can't stem the tide...

And you can't predict what Rolex will do...

Truer words were never spoken.

As much as we collectively whine about how Rolex runs their business, if they ran it any other way, forums like this would not exist and Rolex would be just another Swiss luxury watch company.

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[watchwatcher]

We don't know that it will.

I think that there is a school of thought (which admittedly might be wishful thinking) that thinks the cases are going to be fuller after the new year, but who knows.

[joe100]

Historically, rolex production slows down in q4 because everyone is on vacation. Once they get back to work in q1, the supply starts to creep back up.

I haven’t seen it this dry, so it’s probably a combination of vacations, rolex deliberately creating low suppply to drive up demand, and since 2017 was good financially for a lot of people, it’s driving up said demand.

The perfect storm. In the mean time, there are lots of great watches on the second hand market. We will all survive, I promise!

[enjoythemusic]

There's quite a bit of wealth sloshing around chasing limited resources of goods and services.

A big market crash or crisis of currency could change that.

[GB-man]

Because that’s what my AD told me

[AK797]

Rolex have already told various ADs that supply will not be what it was last year anyway. Many countries have had over-demand and low supply for many months/years now, so surely those countries should be put back into balance first.

[WJGESQ]

Plenty in Florida.

[Speed]

There will be spiffy new DateJust dials rolled out at Basel 2018

[askdanny]

Rolex is not limiting supply on purpose as genius ploy to create even more demand. The demand has been record high because people have more money than ever (especially the middle class has grown worldwide, hence the demand for steel).

The Rolex brand is like no other brand. It’s an aspirational brand, meaning people buy it as a symbol of achievement or event in their lives, not just because it’s good horology. Also, if your brand’s reputation heavily relies on quality, and you are experiencing a surge in demand, you have to be extremely careful to not sacrifice that quality — and reputation. Rolex is not publicly traded and so receives no pressure to grow revenue YoY.


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[Art 1]

Originally Posted by WJGESQ

Plenty in Florida.

Was just in the Rolex boutique and they had about nothing. I felt bad for the sales staff trying to earn a living.

[brandrea]

Our local AD said they are increasing shipments to China and supply to North America will be limited next year ....... who knows.

[Justindo]

Originally Posted by askdanny

Rolex is not limiting supply on purpose as genius ploy to create even more demand. The demand has been record high because people have more money than ever (especially the middle class has grown worldwide, hence the demand for steel).

The Rolex brand is like no other brand. It’s an aspirational brand, meaning people buy it as a symbol of achievement or event in their lives, not just because it’s good horology. Also, if your brand’s reputation heavily relies on quality, and you are experiencing a surge in demand, you have to be extremely careful to not sacrifice that quality — and reputation. Rolex is not publicly traded and so receives no pressure to grow revenue YoY.


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I agree with this. I think the cases will start to fill back up in a couple months or so.

[imperio]

Originally Posted by Art 1

Was just in the Rolex boutique and they had about nothing. I felt bad for the sales staff trying to earn a living.

I'm sure they'll figure out how to get by.

"We'll bump you up the list if you buy a YG daydate..."


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[Uppersouth]

Too early to say at this point. I think we should have good feel for supply by mid February.

Also, a question for the group. “IF” we are in for a price increase, will that come with the first 2018 shipments or post Basel? Its been so long since we’ve had an increase I couldn’t remember the timing.

[Art 1]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Our local AD said they are increasing shipments to China and supply to North America will be limited next year ....... who knows.

We heard the same thing from Chris.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Art 1

We heard the same thing from Chris.

[Art 1]

Originally Posted by imperio

I'm sure they'll figure out how to get by.

"We'll bump you up the list if you buy a YG daydate..."


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I just feel that it's very poor form of Rolex to have commissioned people selling their product but not giving them much to work with. The ad's stand to lose some good people.

[T3F]

I, for one, am hoping availability gets no better in 2018, as I don't see Rolex upping supply, and the only way I see demand easing up is if there's some sort of financial meltdown.

[Secondhandunwinds]

Only time will tell!

[Highjinx]

A hypothetical question...

- assuming a return to "normal" supply by Rolex in 2018; what happens to price of 16710 in after-market ? Currently $9k gets you a good condition watch and nothing else

- liklihood of something NEW?

- will Rolex ever return to non-maxi case production for GMT and Subs, you think?

[77T]

When the inventory of WG and Pt models equalizes, I do believe the demand for SS may normalize.

I don’t believe additional SS production (even if it were their plan to do so) will achieve it alone.

For the time being, pre-owned is the best bet for SS seekers unless they want a Daytona 500 of course.


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[Godfather111]

I think we will see a lot of ADs close down some of their showrooms around the world. With little to no stock to display except DJs, how can they even cover the rent?

This will be the new normal, except in China where there will be new Rolex stores on every other corner.

[seadweller43]

Originally Posted by Godfather111

I think we will see a lot of ADs close down some of their showrooms around the world. With little to no stock to display except DJs, how can they even cover the rent?

This will be the new normal, except in China where there will be new Rolex stores on every other corner.

may be rolex will provide some compensation to
the shops because of lack of supply.

[1William]

I think that supply will come back in the second quarter of 2018. Post Basel. Only a very small percentage of folks are WIS and are up on the current market woes for Rolex and PP customers. Many will not search out the Grey Market. they will ask an AD what else they have and see AP, VC, JLC and others and make a purchase there. I believe that Rolex is playing a dangerous game with the customer base. A price increase, availability limited and no discussion from the company as to why, other than speculation on driving the grey market out of business and hyping the brand. I do believe that at some point a lot of fans throw up their hands and move on. I did it with Panersi years ago and currently only own one. Tread lightly Rolex, you are who you are because you make a great product and your customers are loyal. Much more of this game playing and I will move on.

[Rolexavidfan]

Sorry in my part of the world, Rolex has increased the price and stock is still abysmal. So I guess demand is really driving the stock issues for now. Anyway, fingers crossed. Hope things will be better by February.


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[Smarties]

Originally Posted by 1William

I think that supply will come back in the second quarter of 2018. Post Basel. Only a very small percentage of folks are WIS and are up on the current market woes for Rolex and PP customers. Many will not search out the Grey Market. they will ask an AD what else they have and see AP, VC, JLC and others and make a purchase there. I believe that Rolex is playing a dangerous game with the customer base. A price increase, availability limited and no discussion from the company as to why, other than speculation on driving the grey market out of business and hyping the brand. I do believe that at some point a lot of fans throw up their hands and move on. I did it with Panersi years ago and currently only own one. Tread lightly Rolex, you are who you are because you make a great product and your customers are loyal. Much more of this game playing and I will move on.

IMO, with the way Rolex is doing, it's easier to drive AD rather than grey market dealer out of business.