What Current Dog is the Next Hot Seller?

[No SUBctitute]

There are some Rolexes that weren't sought after when first released but that later became hard-to-get references. For example, when Batman was released it was fairly easy to get. And soon after release of the Hulk, it could be had at a discount---it is now going for thousands over MSRP.

Is there a current model which doesn't get much love, but will be the next Hulk or BLNR? (I realize this is kind of a hard question to answer since currently almost all SS professional models are hard to get, but assume we get closer to an equilibrium of supply and demand for the average SS model.)

[HogwldFLTR]

I believe it's the SD4K.

[Chilly Coconut]

Originally Posted by HogwldFLTR

I believe it's the SD4K.

The 5- or 6-digit one?

[SS Oyster]

I think Explorer II 42mm could see uptick. It’s never been a dog, but has not been as highly prized.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Rocket_Man]

They only became hard to get because of the general shortage in SS Sport models made them scarce. Not because they were a hit like the DaytonaC.

[HogwldFLTR]

Originally Posted by Chilly Coconut

The 5- or 6-digit one?

116600 with only a three year run.

[Helmi]

The milgauss I guess. Never understand why it is not as popular as no date popular models? In fact with green crystal and orange accents it appeals to me more than a no date sub or explorer I. Yet not as popular. Human tastes vary alot

[wulin]

Coulld be the new explorer especially if it gets the ceremic bezel

[peterpl]

Its funny - nothing has changed since the BLNR and the Hulk first came out years and years ago. No love or minimal love for them especially the Hulk it was hated by many watch guys.

Its only hype. These were not hot watches and there has been no significant changes in peoples style etc since their release. Now all of the sudden the hulk is the most beautiful Rolex. Hahahaha. Utterly ridiculous.

Once a dog always a dog as the saying goes.

[zjd168]

if the AK is discontinued this year...

[TswaneNguni]

Anything that has a short production run ...

Cellini Prince has been discontinued,not much loved.AD has one new,at a great price ...who knows,in 20 years time the market thinks it wonderful !!

[JPMickB83]

It’s impossible to predict something like this, and what seem like possible choices today (Z-Blue Milgauss, Red letter SD, etc) will most likely appreciate in value but not spike, since trends and the overall health of the market will play a big role.

Based on Rolex’s trend of making luxury “show pieces” vs true “tool” watches (which is now Tudor’s playground; e.g. the Pelagos and BBGMT), the desirable Rolexes will be those containing precious metals. Reason 1: Rolex is obviously pushing this by restricting SS models. Reason 2: The inherent value of gold/platinum will be attractive if the economy tanks. Reason 3: the two-tone trend is quietly coming back. Reason 4: smaller watches are back en vogue as well.

Therefore, my guess is the Yachtmaster 1, two-tone subs, and two-tone Daytonas will be the hotness in the next two years for “attainable” “sport” watches, since all of them are currently selling for less than list. They’re beautiful, they’re functional, and they’re comfortable (unlike a DSSD, for example).

Anyone wanting an SS model from an AD will likely have to buy a solid gold/platinum piece to have access to an SS model, and there will be a system in place to prevent the secondary market from going bonkers.

Rolex is Rolex, but I bet their ultimate goal is to oust Vacheron from the Holy Trinity, and the only way they can do that is if their starting price for a SS sports model is close to $20k (curiously, which is exactly how much an SS Daytona goes for...).

Tudor can come in and sweep up anyone unable to purchase that 2027 model year $30k Super Oysterquartz Anniversary Edition, lol.

[Shamorai]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Its funny - nothing has changed since the BLNR and the Hulk first came out years and years ago. No love or minimal love for them especially the Hulk it was hated by many watch guys.

Its only hype. These were not hot watches and there has been no significant changes in peoples style etc since their release. Now all of the sudden the hulk is the most beautiful Rolex. Hahahaha. Utterly ridiculous.

Once a dog always a dog as the saying goes.

A green watch was not something I thought i’d ever get myself after seeing it in a store, I mean who buys a green watch, right?
But I kept thinking about it and remembering how nice it looked, until several years later I had to have it. It’s not just hype, it just needed a while for it to be accepted.

[omx5o]

Two tones were popular in the 1970s. This coincided with a massive bull run in gold. If gold becomes desirable again then two tones may come back in fashion.

[TswaneNguni]

Best value in Rolex world may just be TT .Selling well wordlwide.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Shamorai

A green watch was not something I thought i’d ever get myself after seeing it in a store, I mean who buys a green watch, right?
But I kept thinking about it and remembering how nice it looked, until several years later I had to have it. It’s not just hype, it just needed a while for it to be accepted.

I got sucked into it a while ago as well. I bought the Hulk before the SS craze just to see if it was for me.

I sold it after the honeymoon period I think it was 3 months or so into ownership. Now the Bluesy is what you call beautiful - that watch has been around since I had the Hulk and its still here.

Many people are getting sucked into hype and Instagram and buying based on that. That almost always ends in a flip and losing money unless you buy really well but then again all grays low ball you when its time to sell or trade.

[mr_gray]

this might not be directly to the OP's question because i'm not talking about aesthetic "dogs" but instead underperforming watches (although this may have been what the OP meant also).

Looking at where things are versus list price, and what looks "good" (IMHO no secret why HULK, BLNR, Vintage Subs, GMT etc sell crazy, they all look amazing and more and more people are cottoning on.) - i think some of the precious metal models are going to go nuts. especially modern ones.

i'd expect subs and gmt to go nuts first. if you look at it it has already happened with vintage 1675 and 1680 gold watches. they sell for 26k plus as head only. there are decent condition 1680's going for 100k. this of course reflects their scarcity more than anything perhaps. but what do people who want the look wear as a substitute?

currently a mint 116618 or 116619 (smurf) is much cheaper of course!

i reckon people are going to look at the value proposition of a steel watch that is mass produced selling for a premium over retail versus a precious metal model that sells for around 75% of retail. they will make rational decisions influenced by trends.

if wearing a PM watch suits their life, i don't see why they wouldn't chose PM. if they choose PM, I don't see why they would go 5 versus 6 number series (more PM in the watch, glidelock, condition, movement, bracelet).

yeah so my pick is ceramic PM subs specifically.

[Joergen]

Originally Posted by JPMickB83

It’s impossible to predict something like this, and what seem like possible choices today (Z-Blue Milgauss, Red letter SD, etc) will most likely appreciate in value but not spike, since trends and the overall health of the market will play a big role.

Based on Rolex’s trend of making luxury “show pieces” vs true “tool” watches (which is now Tudor’s playground; e.g. the Pelagos and BBGMT), the desirable Rolexes will be those containing precious metals. Reason 1: Rolex is obviously pushing this by restricting SS models. Reason 2: The inherent value of gold/platinum will be attractive if the economy tanks. Reason 3: the two-tone trend is quietly coming back. Reason 4: smaller watches are back en vogue as well.

Therefore, my guess is the Yachtmaster 1, two-tone subs, and two-tone Daytonas will be the hotness in the next two years for “attainable” “sport” watches, since all of them are currently selling for less than list. They’re beautiful, they’re functional, and they’re comfortable (unlike a DSSD, for example).

Anyone wanting an SS model from an AD will likely have to buy a solid gold/platinum piece to have access to an SS model, and there will be a system in place to prevent the secondary market from going bonkers.

Rolex is Rolex, but I bet their ultimate goal is to oust Vacheron from the Holy Trinity, and the only way they can do that is if their starting price for a SS sports model is close to $20k (curiously, which is exactly how much an SS Daytona goes for...).

Tudor can come in and sweep up anyone unable to purchase that 2027 model year $30k Super Oysterquartz Anniversary Edition, lol.

Great analysis! Look forward to 2027

[rolexdream]

I definately see gold and TT pieces becoming popular as mentioned, chnr is leading the trend (another future hot piece currently under the radar) along with DJ’s

Also as people go fo these and want smaller watches the current subs/gmts will just appear clunky and undesirable.

[Shamorai]

Dj2!!

[Ar_Mi]

I'm sure we will have a clearer picture come march.. lets see what Rolex is deciding to discontinue. Watch out for the Navy dial WG BLRO.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Best value in Rolex world may just be TT .Selling well wordlwide.

The new GMT TT in SS/rose gold 126711CHNR is a beauty.

[Brew]

I'm seeing more and more TT pieces advertised. But that might just be because I bought one and am sensitized . . . .

[Onikage]

Gold is the new steel.

[praveen]

Originally Posted by onikage

gold is the new steel.

+1

[Generation]

Originally Posted by JPMickB83

Rolex is Rolex, but I bet their ultimate goal is to oust Vacheron from the Holy Trinity, and the only way they can do that is if their starting price for a SS sports model is close to $20k (curiously, which is exactly how much an SS Daytona goes for...).

Not to highjack this thread, but I'm genuinely curious about Vacheron Constantin being ousted from the Holy Trinity. Are they the least popular of the Holy Trinity? Is there really any chance they could be ousted? I ask because I'm currently deciding between a Rolex and a Vacheron Constantin as my first high-end luxury watch.

[tyler1980]

its got to be the explorer II. I think its getting updated and the distribution will be tight from day one. It will be new and scarce and hot.

You already see more interest in it now with the current version because its not always on display anymore, but there is still that perception its a dog which is a hard image to get rid of as long as the current version is in production. I love mine, dont consider it a dog, but i am in the minority i think.

I think if they do something like put a ceramic bezel on it, it will also increase demand for the old one and have a lot of demand for the new one at the same time. Its both why people prefer it and dont like it... the bezel.

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by No SUBctitute

There are some Rolexes that weren't sought after when first released but that later became hard-to-get references. For example, when Batman was released it was fairly easy to get. And soon after release of the Hulk, it could be had at a discount---it is now going for thousands over MSRP.

Is there a current model which doesn't get much love, but will be the next Hulk or BLNR? (I realize this is kind of a hard question to answer since currently almost all SS professional models are hard to get, but assume we get closer to an equilibrium of supply and demand for the average SS model.)

As the shift from unpopular to hot seller is now largely driven by social media the answer to your question is most likely the reference that is most hyped on social media or worn by some self made “celebrity”

But right now it’s all down to simple supply and demand economics.

Saw a used 116600 for sale the other day in the UK for £10,500 ($13,400).

They used to languish unsold in AD’s windows over here and we’re probably the least popular of the entire SS professional range.

If Rolex were to ramp up production accross the range, that 116600 would have been in the window for half of that price. And probably would take an age to sell.

So I’d agree with Tyler. It will be the Exp II. If it’s updated in 2019

[kauffee]

I take issue with the OP’s premise. The BLNR was never a dog. It was very popular and a top seller out of the gate. Yes, you could often find them in AD cases, but very often you could not. And that was at a time where basically every other non-Daytona SS was in the case.

[mr_gray]

whats a "dog" in this discussion anyway? a poor performer in the $ appreciation stakes? an undesirable model?