Rolex Disappointment After a Long Hiatus

[LouG]

Hello TRF – Kind of a long rant here. My flame suit is on but please be kind.....

Long time lurker, not much of a poster. I first joined in 2014 when I was looking for insight into purchasing a Submariner 116610LN. At the time (age 43) this was a life-long pursuit since my mid-teens that had finally come to fruition. I had come to TRF to research different styles, gain other members’ thoughts and opinions and was able to connect with DavidSW. The forum had given me enough courage to take the chance on wiring a stranger a fair amount of money for the Sub, and I’m proud to say that DavidSW provided a seamless and stress free transaction. Unless I’m doing chores around the house or working out (puleeze), this Sub in on the wrist.

I’m finding myself back in the market for another piece, unfortunately for me a GMT Master II Pepsi, and even more unfortunately that I’ve now seen what has become of the Rolex stainless steel supply chain (or lack thereof).

This past weekend I paid a visit to a local AD here in Chicago (for those who know, CD Peacock in Oakbrook, IL). This is a fairly large store with an extremely large display and supply of luxury watches (Patek, Omega, Tudor, IWC, etc), however within the six or so cases in the Rolex section there were maybe only six or seven watches. The Rolex wall displays were all empty – pretty pathetic looking IMO. The AD was very courteous to me and my wife. She took my name and cell number along with some notes of a few pieces that I was interested in. While I don’t expect a call back, her courtesy and respect was a welcome surprise. Two weeks prior I visited another AD (Persin & Robbins), whereas one of the owners himself essentially told me to get lost – telling me that even when they do begin getting deliveries, they are only going to their very best customers. I won’t be visiting them again.

I’m not trying to tell the forum what is already knows. My point is that while Covid-19 has indeed gripped the global economy pretty harshly, all of the non-Rolex branded luxury watch cases were full in both ADs. Could this mean that Rolex is indeed that popular with the typical walk-in buyer such as myself, of course it can. I’m merely stating an opinion that Rolex looks to be indeed playing the lack of supply game with ADs, trying to reverse the over supply that appeared to have existed back in say 2014 when I made my grey dealer purchase. How can it be that all of these other great brands' supply have seemingly been unaffected during Covid-19 and yet Rolex is saying that they were affected much moreso during the same pandemic? Their actions have only worsened the situation where those who do find a grail piece are simply turning it around for a more than 100% profit (see here for a just listed example). I’m a small business owner and I’m all for capitalism so while it sounds as if I’m complaining, I don’t mean to. I’m just very disappointed that it look me so long to get to this point in my life, only to find that the icon whom I have treasured for so long has stooped to the level of playing games with their own customers. Capitalism sure is great, unless you're on the other end of the deal (hey, maybe I should trademark that.....).

Your time to read and digest my rant is truly appreciated.

[kieselguhr]

Sorry to hear about your frustration. Hopefully you get the BLRO sooner rather than later.

My own experience walking into random ADs here in Las Vegas, you get the typical “we have nothing in stock due to high demand.” They take your name down for a list and you play the waiting game.

I am fortunate to have had been shopping at the same AD for a good part of a decade and they have always been honest and forthcoming with me with regard to watches. I’m no big spender in comparison to everyone else that shops there but so far I have gotten every watch I have asked for within reasonable time.

[teck21]

How is Rolex playing games with its customers?

It is producing a set number of watches each year, like it always has and always does.

The other cases are full because people simply want to buy Rolex rather than the other brands .

It is unfortunate you are presently unable to obtain what you desire and feel you have earned as a projection or realisation of personal success.

Consider the possibility that the bar, as far as Rolex is concerned has moved higher. Times change.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[afmars]

Rolex does it’s own thing and does not change to accommodate cyclical demand and trends. Right now we have demand that has never been seen before and Rolex is not going to start pumping out hundreds of thousands of more watches to meet it. As stated above they produce approximately the same number of watches each year.

[JodyHighroller]

Unfortunately It’s not a good time to enter the market as a new buyer with no AD history. This is the story with many, many people.

I think most folks forget two important things. A majority of watch brands over produce which leads to their cases being overstocked because supply exceeds demand.

All major brands have had their supply chains disrupted due to covid restrictions including Rolex. The difference is Rolex’s demand has stayed consistent, and, or increased during this pandemic so it’s not a fair comparison.

[vh2k]

Rolex (and to a large extent, Patek Philippe and AP) are selling every watch they make (at transaction prices very close to list price).

99% of the other Swiss brands are struggling. So, every other brand is either discounting, shipping/selling fewer units, or both.

Global swiss watch shipments are down over 23% from 2019. China is the only market that grew in 2020.

Hong Kong - down 45% over the past two years
Japan - down 28% in 2020
UK - down 25%
Singapore - down 28%
Even in the good ol' USA - down 19%

So, yes, lots of watches in cases all over the world.... but very few Rolex, PP, or AP available.

Rolex is the brand everyone wants!

[Jack T]

Originally Posted by teck21

How is Rolex playing games with its customers?

It is producing a set number of watches each year, like it always has and always does.

The other cases are full because people simply want to buy Rolex rather than the other brands .

It is unfortunate you are presently unable to obtain what you desire and feel you have earned, but it is possible that the bar has moved so much higher. And there is no reason why it should not

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm not sure it's as simple as you describe. I've spoken to an AD who said that in years' past they received thirty Submariners per year, now they expect six. Before the ceramic Daytona was introduced they received 16 - 20, last year they had four to sell; display cases are empty everywhere with wait lists unlike anything anyone has ever seen.

And yet if one peruses the inventories of grey market dealers, there seems to be ample supply, at hefty premiums.

As for the bar moving higher for luxury goods, you can walk in to a Mercedes dealer and walk out with almost any model you want; Louis Vuitton bags are available at any boutique. Seems demand for these products hasn't soared so far beyond supply, and no other high end brand is suffering from manufacturing or distribution problems.

While none of us know what is really going on, something is going on.

[Vipes]

Originally Posted by afmars

Rolex does it’s own thing and does not change to accommodate cyclical demand and trends. Right now we have demand that has never been seen before and Rolex is not going to start pumping out hundreds of thousands of more watches to meet it. As stated above they produce approximately the same number of watches each year.

Agree. Rolex factories were also shut down temporarily during the pandemic which probably contributes to less watches being shipped.

[uhren917]

You answered your own question.

As a business owner, the ideal situation is demand for your product.

Rolex cases are empty, other brands are not.

This is a luxury item. Your options are to go grey or to move on.

Seems like going grey went in your favor before, and now it has swung the other way.

[Buckaroo Banzai]

Originally Posted by LouG

Hello TRF – Kind of a long rant here. My flame suit is on but please be kind.....

Long time lurker, not much of a poster. I first joined in 2014 when I was looking for insight into purchasing a Submariner 116610LN. At the time (age 43) this was a life-long pursuit since my mid-teens that had finally come to fruition. I had come to TRF to research different styles, gain other members’ thoughts and opinions and was able to connect with DavidSW. The forum had given me enough courage to take the chance on wiring a stranger a fair amount of money for the Sub, and I’m proud to say that DavidSW provided a seamless and stress free transaction. Unless I’m doing chores around the house or working out (puleeze), this Sub in on the wrist.

I’m finding myself back in the market for another piece, unfortunately for me a GMT Master II Pepsi, and even more unfortunately that I’ve now seen what has become of the Rolex stainless steel supply chain (or lack thereof).

This past weekend I paid a visit to a local AD here in Chicago (for those who know, CD Peacock in Oakbrook, IL). This is a fairly large store with an extremely large display and supply of luxury watches (Patek, Omega, Tudor, IWC, etc), however within the six or so cases in the Rolex section there were maybe only six or seven watches. The Rolex wall displays were all empty – pretty pathetic looking IMO. The AD was very courteous to me and my wife. She took my name and cell number along with some notes of a few pieces that I was interested in. While I don’t expect a call back, her courtesy and respect was a welcome surprise. Two weeks prior I visited another AD (Persin & Robbins), whereas one of the owners himself essentially told me to get lost – telling me that even when they do begin getting deliveries, they are only going to their very best customers. I won’t be visiting them again.

I’m not trying to tell the forum what is already knows. My point is that while Covid-19 has indeed gripped the global economy pretty harshly, all of the non-Rolex branded luxury watch cases were full in both ADs. Could this mean that Rolex is indeed that popular with the typical walk-in buyer such as myself, of course it can. I’m merely stating an opinion that Rolex looks to be indeed playing the lack of supply game with ADs, trying to reverse the over supply that appeared to have existed back in say 2014 when I made my grey dealer purchase. How can it be that all of these other great brands' supply have seemingly been unaffected during Covid-19 and yet Rolex is saying that they were affected much moreso during the same pandemic? Their actions have only worsened the situation where those who do find a grail piece are simply turning it around for a more than 100% profit (see here for a just listed example). I’m a small business owner and I’m all for capitalism so while it sounds as if I’m complaining, I don’t mean to. I’m just very disappointed that it look me so long to get to this point in my life, only to find that the icon whom I have treasured for so long has stooped to the level of playing games with their own customers. Capitalism sure is great, unless you're on the other end of the deal (hey, maybe I should trademark that.....).

Your time to read and digest my rant is truly appreciated.

Sorry to hear about this, but I would be patient and keep visiting the AD that at least made you feel welcome.

I did a similar thing two years ago. Wanted to get back in and purchase a Rolex. I called and chatted with a few AD hear in Houston and get a similar response as your 2nd experience. I made the decision to visit and chat with the SA/AD that was courteous and invited me to look at what they had.

The did have a sub, but it was a TT, that I did not want to purchase. I gave them my details and what I wanted and would visit periodically.

9 monhts later I got the text that a BLRO was available and was I interested, that was in Jan 2020.

I checked with my SA on what they had recently, she said they just received a delivery but it was all datejusts. I told her I was interested in a few more models and I will see how long it takes to get those....

Just be paitent and develop the relationship. Doesn't mean you buy a lot of stuff, but pay them a visit when you can given COVID etc.

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by teck21

How is Rolex playing games with its customers?

It is producing a set number of watches each year, like it always has and always does.

The other cases are full because people simply want to buy Rolex rather than the other brands .

It is unfortunate you are presently unable to obtain what you desire and feel you have earned as a projection or realisation of personal success.

Consider the possibility that the bar, as far as Rolex is concerned has moved higher. Times change.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I was watching a Pga tour event recently and I saw about 3 Rolex commercials in 2 hours.

I chuckled to myself thinking about all the people who may see those ads and decide it is time for a Rolex, only to head to an AD to find empty cases and disappointment

Maybe Rolex needs to add a disclaimer to there ads that inventory is not guaranteed.

Rolex is still the watch of the middle class. Let’s not kid ourselves about the bar being higher

[dimag333]

if you want to find all those missing watches from the cases they are in the rolex boutiques section in for sale

steve

[Cambo]

I went grey for my BLRO. Cost me but I'm happily enjoying it now. If you want it at MSRP, the wait may be long.

[supernova]

What seems to happen during this pandemic is that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Therefore Rolex watches (and others) are flying off the shelves, the pandemic seems to be fueling it rather than subsiding it, making it even harder to acquire desirable pieces.

[turkeysub93]

Something being overlooked here is that the BLRO is one of the most sought after watches in today's watch market. Go on Rolex's website and check out how many different configurations of watches are available. I'll save you the time...there are 1,527 different Rolex watch configurations spread between men's references and women's references. Even if Rolex makes 1,000,000 watches a year (a figure tossed around that holds little merit) the BLRO will be but a fraction of Rolex's overall production. Even taking into account that Rolex would gravitate toward producing more GMT watches than Pearlmaster watches due to demand, the supply is not there given current production parameters.

Smart move by Rolex to not over produce and devalue their brand. Take a look at what has happened to the likes of Panerai. During previous watch booms they overproduced and were left with stock just sitting around...discounts ensued and ultimately left them with what I believe was a somber economic lesson to not grow too much too fast.

[ingoodtime]

I started collecting wachesat a low period in my F life after my mom passed unexpectedly in 2007. I was buying renato, invicta etc. No watches Over about 450 or so. I never thought I'd be able to afford a Rolex, it was a far away dream. My first was a preowned 4yr old serti sub that I bought with box and papers from a respected jeweler. I think I was 52 yrs old. A few years later I was wanting the 18kt gmt green dial. Back then it was 24k. I could not afford it but did but the SS gmt because I loved the watch.
Over the years my grail was an 18kt yg Rolex at least a 40mm size but prices got crazy I again looked at the preowned market and got an L series 16618 gold bluesy at a fair price and the watch is in good condition.
So IMHO, look at preowned . Go to jewelry exchanges where there re multiple jewelers ad check out the selection.

[Jack T]

Originally Posted by turkeysub93

Something being overlooked here is that the BLRO is one of the most sought after watches in today's watch market. Go on Rolex's website and check out how many different configurations of watches are available. I'll save you the time...there are 1,527 different Rolex watch configurations spread between men's references and women's references. Even if Rolex makes 1,000,000 watches a year (a figure tossed around that holds little merit) the BLRO will be but a fraction of Rolex's overall production. Even taking into account that Rolex would gravitate toward producing more GMT watches than Pearlmaster watches due to demand, the supply is not there given current production parameters.

Smart move by Rolex to not over produce and devalue their brand. Take a look at what has happened to the likes of Panerai. During previous watch booms they overproduced and were left with stock just sitting around...discounts ensued and ultimately left them with what I believe was a somber economic lesson to not grow too much too fast.

I get your point, it certainly makes sense; I’m just not sure anyone has a real gauge on this so called increased demand.

If there had been demand for, say 800,000 watches on average from 2014 to 2017, seems Rolex came close to meeting that demand.

Then, suddenly, apparently, or reportedly in or around 2018 availability of stainless steel sports models dries up, or so it seems. Is demand surging at this point?
Then the disruptions from COVID, is demand still rising that significantly above the five year average?
Just don’t see why Rolex would reduce production of their most in demand models to levels so far below customer interest that year long wait lists are the norm, while grey market dealers are charging sizable premiums for delivery tomorrow.
If Rolex was content to sell at their 2016 levels before, what’s the upside to dropping that by 30% now ?

And I haven’t factored in the TRF bubble of chatter, rumors and perspective of members who are all seeking the same watches.

[Cambo]

Originally Posted by ingoodtime

I started collecting wachesat a low period in my F life after my mom passed unexpectedly in 2007. I was buying renato, invicta etc. No watches Over about 450 or so. I never thought I'd be able to afford a Rolex, it was a far away dream. My first was a preowned 4yr old serti sub that I bought with box and papers from a respected jeweler. I think I was 52 yrs old. A few years later I was wanting the 18kt gmt green dial. Back then it was 24k. I could not afford it but did but the SS gmt because I loved the watch.
Over the years my grail was an 18kt yg Rolex at least a 40mm size but prices got crazy I again looked at the preowned market and got an L series 16618 gold bluesy at a fair price and the watch is in good condition.
So IMHO, look at preowned . Go to jewelry exchanges where there re multiple jewelers ad check out the selection.

I love my 16618! Congrats

[Harry-57]

While some AD might jerk chains, many will prioritise customers of higher potential value and past loyalty, and others will give you a different reply depending on which SA you speak to, my impression of the UK situation (I can't speak for the US) is that the main factor, which tends to be underestimated, is that demand is off the scale.

[1William]

The BLRO is a great watch and produced in limited numbers based on demand. The AD's, not Rolex determine who gets the watches and what qualifies them for the purchase. I would think that most AD's have numerous desirable watches in the safe for the right customer or the right deal. I have heard of 100k purchases of other brands being rounded out with the opportunity to buy a Daytona-C or BLRO at retail. No telling what is really occurring but what I do know is I can buy almost any hot watch I want from DavidSW with a phone call. This thread is really about money and what the Grey's are charging. Back when we could go to them and get a discount all was good. Now, not so much. Find the Trusted Seller who has the watch you want and call them up and negotiate and get your best price. Pay and the watch will be to you by 1200 tomorrow and you can start the ownership experience. I did and really like my watch and the money I paid was worth it. Good luck.

[RJRJRJ]

Originally Posted by turkeysub93

Something being overlooked here is that the BLRO is one of the most sought after watches in today's watch market. Go on Rolex's website and check out how many different configurations of watches are available. I'll save you the time...there are 1,527 different Rolex watch configurations spread between men's references and women's references. Even if Rolex makes 1,000,000 watches a year (a figure tossed around that holds little merit) the BLRO will be but a fraction of Rolex's overall production. Even taking into account that Rolex would gravitate toward producing more GMT watches than Pearlmaster watches due to demand, the supply is not there given current production parameters.

Smart move by Rolex to not over produce and devalue their brand. Take a look at what has happened to the likes of Panerai. During previous watch booms they overproduced and were left with stock just sitting around...discounts ensued and ultimately left them with what I believe was a somber economic lesson to not grow too much too fast.

Why do you think that figure has little merit? COSC numbers for each brand were published yearly up until a few years ago (supposedly because of pressure from Rolex). <-----that last part may have little merit, but I've read it a few times.

[Seddyspaghetti]

Nothing new. If you really want a BLRO then pay market value. If not, move on.

Unless you have the time and/or money to play AD games in the hopes of acquiring one at msrp.

The choice is yours. Good luck.

[Edfrozen]

Please stop the complaining. It is what it is

[Fleetlord]

This AD description is a great comparison of market conditions.

Why are the other brands cases full?

They overproduce watches that people DON'T WANT.

I have seen this myself numerous times Pre Covid.

Rolex only AD boutiques packed full of people clamoring for Rolex. Show cases sparse, but the people are desperately trying to obtain Rolex...PM, TT are now on the table and even seen as "value" props. Amazing stuff for the brand.

The other guys? Beautiful boutiques, FULL of nice watches. The only living beings in the occupancy were the employees. They spent their time looking at the net or simply waiting to get out in time to beat traffic.

People want Rolex.

[Chester01]

It’s Rolex and the AD’s playing games and the sad reality is there are plenty of dupes that actually believe the games and say oh there is so much demand and not enough supply. Lol. It’s gotten bigger than Rolex and there is big $$ in creating fake scarcity. But yes, it’s turned me off to the brand, though I have not really be interested in many 6 digit models at all. Hopefully the upshot is it will take folks who are only into Rolex for status/name recognition reasons and move them into being watch people who appreciate watches and are not just a Rolex fan.

[brandrea]

Welcome back Lou. Times have indeed changed. I wish you all the very best in your search for a BLRO

[Wcdhtwn]

Here’s a thought... you saw full displays of IWC, Tudor, Omega, perhaps others, which are all great brands and have excellent options in the MSRP range of a BLRO. However you did exactly what everyone is doing, you’re not considering (at least from what you said) any other brands or options than the Rolex BLRO. It’s your money, you shouldn’t settle on a watch you don’t want, I completely get that... but that’s everyone’s thought process - especially those who aren’t in it to flip for a quick profit. Lack of flexibility and steadfastness in getting one particular Rolex, or just wanting a Rolex, is also making acquiring one more difficult. This goes for everyone, including me: either we start buying other brands or we will sit around pining for the Rolex that’s never going to arrive.

[TheVTCGuy]

Reading all these threads about WISes frustration, I feel really it is more how the customer is treated at the AD. I walked in to the Rolex Boutique at a mall here in San Diego, with a couple other TRFers. I was wearing my SkyDweller, the others were wearing very nice pieces, one had a PM. The reception we got was horrid. The SAs were snobbish and rude, telling us outright they wouldn't sell a SS if they got it in to just us, they were reserved for "primary customers." It was downright shameful.

Then, I hear a story about someone walking in to an AD asking to buy a Pepsi, or Daytona, no history, and they are treated very politely. This happened at the AD I was in the other day. A gentleman walked in and asked for a Daytona. I had to stifle a laugh but the SA was very gracious, and explained they were extremely hard to come by, and it would be literally years before there was even a possibility, unless there was a drastic change of some kind. He did not rush, he of course offered to show him other chronographs, asked if the gentleman would be interested in a Brietling or a Tudor. I would expect this from a reputable sales rep, and there was nothing devious about it. The point is the rep was respectful and honest.

This scarcity has given some ADs a sense of empowerment, "We have the power to grant to someone something a lot of people desire" and it reflects in their customer service. To me, that is the most frustrating part of not being able to walk in to an AD and buy a model at MSRP.

[Cambo]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Reading all these threads about WISes frustration, I feel really it is more how the customer is treated at the AD. I walked in to the Rolex Boutique at a mall here in San Diego, with a couple other TRFers. I was wearing my SkyDweller, the others were wearing very nice pieces, one had a PM. The reception we got was horrid. The SAs were snobbish and rude, telling us outright they wouldn't sell a SS if they got it in to just us, they were reserved for "primary customers." It was downright shameful.

Then, I hear a story about someone walking in to an AD asking to buy a Pepsi, or Daytona, no history, and they are treated very politely. This happened at the AD I was in the other day. A gentleman walked in and asked for a Daytona. I had to stifle a laugh but the SA was very gracious, and explained they were extremely hard to come by, and it would be literally years before there was even a possibility, unless there was a drastic change of some kind. He did not rush, he of course offered to show him other chronographs, asked if the gentleman would be interested in a Brietling or a Tudor. I would expect this from a reputable sales rep, and there was nothing devious about it. The point is the rep was respectful and honest.

This scarcity has given some ADs a sense of empowerment, "We have the power to grant to someone something a lot of people desire" and it reflects in their customer service. To me, that is the most frustrating part of not being able to walk in to an AD and buy a model at MSRP.

Excellent points

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Wcdhtwn

Here’s a thought... you saw full displays of IWC, Tudor, Omega, perhaps others, which are all great brands and have excellent options in the MSRP range of a BLRO. However you did exactly what everyone is doing, you’re not considering (at least from what you said) any other brands or options than the Rolex BLRO. It’s your money, you shouldn’t settle on a watch you don’t want, I completely get that... but that’s everyone’s thought process - especially those who aren’t in it to flip for a quick profit. Lack of flexibility and steadfastness in getting one particular Rolex, or just wanting a Rolex, is also making acquiring one more difficult. This goes for everyone, including me: either we start buying other brands or we will sit around pining for the Rolex that’s never going to arrive.

It’s pretty comical when you think about it. Other brands with great quality watches, available right now, completely ignored. Those brands must be beside themselves. But, they are overproducing, over distributing and the market sees no value in that.

When Tesla started to ramp up production and were able to deliver cars faster, a fair number of people cancelled their orders. The cars would no longer be exclusive and their desire for one plummeted. It’s just human nature. Completely ridiculous, but the market speaks.