seriously... the 15202 selling above $100K new now!!!

[Patek_collector]

did people lose their mind here? i was just trying to buy one 4 months back and was offered couple for $60K... i feel this is not collecting anymore.... it is just ADs and Grey manipulating this market under the orchestration of the brands...

what do you guys think here? shall we completely forget about the likes of the 15202 and the 5711....

[macrowatch]

Meanwhile the Winklevii are sitting nicely on bitcoin billions literally, and Ripple XRP just made lots of people nice speculative money. $100k USD is (oddly enough) nothing in this twilight zone.

[smallcollector]

Not manipulating. . .they are just offering inventory at crazy prices. . .nobody has to buy, let alone click the sites

[VogelPhoenix]

Hoping to make a quick buck before people find out that the AP brand has been ruined last weekend

[HMHM]

This is an example of MANIPULATION by the grey market. Overnight one single watch went from 50-60k to 85k and now 100k.....

We are eventually going to strangle ourselves if we support purchasing from the grey dealers.... stocks go straight to the greys and end-buyers buy from greys at 2-3x the price while the greys and the ADs split the profit....

Greys make money, ADs make money selling higher than MSRP. Only the final buyer pays through his/her nose for the watch and takes away all the pleasure of owning the watch and spends all the time babysitting the god damn watch to avoid losing the value from scratches/wear and tear...

[fsprow]

A sale represents an agreement between a willing buyer and seller. No evil forces here. Can't blame a seller for asking more than a negotiation might produce. An AP is a totally discretionary purchase.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Hoping to make a quick buck before people find out that the AP brand has been ruined last weekend

Surely if they can survive Code gen 1 then the brand can survive 250 purple cartoon watches?

HMHM, I'm not quite ready to call it a manipulated market if the Grays are still bidding for inventory at the traditional 20-25% margins. HOWEVER, I maintain that an enterprising dealer can easily corner the market of Green Daytona, , 15202, FPJ CB with a mere 5M USD working capital for each reference. I don't include 5711 because I have less feel of depth of inventory there.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Surely if they can survive Code gen 1 then the brand can survive 250 purple cartoon watches?

HMHM, I'm not quite ready to call it a manipulated market if the Grays are still bidding for inventory at the traditional 20-25% margins. HOWEVER, I maintain that an enterprising dealer can easily corner the market of Green Daytona, , 15202, FPJ CB with a mere 5M USD working capital for each reference. I don't include 5711 because I have less feel of depth of inventory there.

The thing is... they don’t run the business solely on their own. It’s run more like a syndicate with multiple groups involved. That’s how they share their stocks among themselves to ensure that they always have a product to sell if a customer requests for one. So when news goes out that a hot product like the JM Daytona or the 15202 is about to be discontinued, they hoard the product at the back of the safe until it’s officially discontinued. Didn’t you realise where all the JM Daytona listing went missing for a week or two before 7th April? Together they control the availability and once it’s confirmed they re-list the watch for a 20% premium. If this isn’t manipulating the market I don’t know how to define market manipulation.

[uscmatt99]

Lots of free money floating around and a limited number of timepieces to buy. I would absolutely love to own a 15202 but will not have the opportunity to buy one at a price I'm willing to pay. I'm okay with that. Once there are less people willing to pay premiums, these pieces will either sit unpurchased or the prices will come down. At this point, the manufactures are winning and the grey market sellers are winning, so they have no impetus to move from the status quo.

One awesome side effect of the current state of affairs it that people have a ton of money to throw at truly creative independents who are bucking trends, allowing new brands to sell enough pieces to innovate and blossom. That's where my interest lies these days.

[CastorKrieg]

Originally Posted by Patek_collector

did people lose their mind here? i was just trying to buy one 4 months back and was offered couple for $60K... i feel this is not collecting anymore.... it is just ADs and Grey manipulating this market under the orchestration of the brands...

what do you guys think here? shall we completely forget about the likes of the 15202 and the 5711....

It's because 5711 was discontinued so people have one less coveted watch to buy, hence they are jumping on the 'next best thing'.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by CastorKrieg

It's because 5711 was discontinued so people have one less coveted watch to buy, hence they are jumping on the 'next best thing'.

Not so much... It jumped when FHB announced a little later that 15202 will be discontinued as well.

[GreenLantern]

The madness will never end.

[jarecki]

Just buy a different watch if you’re not happy with the price of the 15202...

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by jarecki

Just buy a different watch if you’re not happy with the price of the 15202...

If AP had intended this to be the price they'd have adjusted their MSRP / RRP. (That's the definition of MSRP / RRP.)

[martinr]

Takuya has one for 88K. A month ago he had it listed for 66K. Then AP discontinued it. It wasn’t on his website and I thought someone bought it but a few weeks later it magically reappeared for 88K. Six months ago you could find a new one for 45K.

[martinr]

Nice watch but no quick set date and setting the date with the tiny crown is a pain, the watch loses about ten seconds a day so if accuracy matters forget about it. And it’s a scratch magnet. I bought one in 2013 for 21K new from an AD that had it in stock. And I think I sold it for a little less to Justrolexes. The good old days.

[chiscott_29]

I used to think it won’t end...but that assumed some concept of normalcy.

This latest crap where models are hoarded and prices literally double overnight like a tech IPO is going to destroy the entire market if it doesn’t course correct soon. This is not sustainable and I’m simply not convinced that end consumers are buying at these super inflated prices.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I used to think it won’t end...but that assumed some concept of normalcy.

This latest crap where models are hoarded and prices literally double overnight like a tech IPO is going to destroy the entire market if it doesn’t course correct soon. This is not sustainable and I’m simply not convinced that end consumers are buying at these super inflated prices.

[watchfan248]

don’t see it slowing down anytime soon


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dh1]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

This latest crap where models are hoarded and prices literally double overnight like a tech IPO is going to destroy the entire market if it doesn’t course correct soon. This is not sustainable and I’m simply not convinced that end consumers are buying at these super inflated prices.

It depends on your definition of "consumers" and market. At this point people are taking trading cards, shoes, whisky, cases of wine, watches, musical instruments, firearms, classic cars and just putting them in safes / vaults / garages as assets. Anything that's collectible, scarce and has prestige. That reduces supply and then momentum increases demand... it also attracts a group of people who see this and try to make money on flipping / swing trading these things.

Pretty soon you'll have people buying fractional shares of a collection of watches that trades as an ETF. You can own 0.01% of a Paul Newman Daytona... enjoy.

As the things mentioned above become a store of value or heavily financialized, it's not good for enthusiasts who actually enjoy these things.

[Swaye]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I used to think it won’t end...but that assumed some concept of normalcy.

This latest crap where models are hoarded and prices literally double overnight like a tech IPO is going to destroy the entire market if it doesn’t course correct soon. This is not sustainable and I’m simply not convinced that end consumers are buying at these super inflated prices.

Agree! I just can't get over the price to value issue. I've owned 2 202's. A white and a blue. Great watches. At 30-40K. At 100K? That's laughable. I can get a FPJ Optimum for 100K. Or take your pick of other high end watches. I mean I get it, the 202 is cool. But not 100 grand cool. But hey, if someone wants to pay 3X for a watch without quick set, go for it.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by Swaye

Agree! I just can't get over the price to value issue.

Agreed.

And that is literally part of the definition of a classic speculative bubble. Price to Value goes haywire.

[HMHM]

It’s so boring nowadays tbh... we go to the stores and all we see is empty cases. No watch to try, rude staffs at ADs (AP boutiques offer the best experience so far). Starting to lose interest in collecting in this opaque market because the balance is so heavy in favour towards the ADs and greys while watch enthusiasts are left to beg for a watch.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by Swaye

Great watches. At 30-40K. At 100K? That's laughable. I can get a FPJ Optimum for 100K. Or take your pick of other high end watches. I mean I get it, the 202 is cool. But not 100 grand cool. But hey, if someone wants to pay 3X for a watch without quick set, go for it.

That is such a good point. At the $100k price point, you can get so many other incredible and/or higher-complications watches.

(That said, I remember when the FPJ Optimum went for $65k just barely a year ago.)

[AK797]

It's hard to watch Normal goods/Hobbies turn into Veblen goods/Hype but that was it what is happening to more and more of our beloved models.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by AK797

It's hard to watch Normal goods/Hobbies turn into Veblen goods/Hype but that was it what is happening to more and more of our beloved models.

Indeed.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by fsprow

A sale represents an agreement between a willing buyer and seller. No evil forces here. Can't blame a seller for asking more than a negotiation might produce. An AP is a totally discretionary purchase.

I'm glad that someone here understands economics.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Meanwhile the Winklevii are sitting nicely on bitcoin billions literally, and Ripple XRP just made lots of people nice speculative money. $100k USD is (oddly enough) nothing in this twilight zone.

This is the other truism in this conversation. Can't blame buyers for wanting to spend the money that is raining down on their heads. So what if they all like blue dial stainless steel watches that were designed by Gerald Genta in the 1970s and a few other low production watches that have been popularized by Hodinkee and sites like this one.

[911AP]

I think there is a lot of hate here for no reason. Everyone who has a 15202 right now is cheering. I know I am having just got one at retail a few months ago. People are buying at these prices otherwise they wouldn't all be listed at them.

The average collector won't be able to play in the field anymore. Now it's going to be people who don't care to spend 100k on a 15202. They have the money. That is who they are targeting now.

Other brands should be cheering. If people can no longer afford AP, Patek, Rolex, they have no where else to go but other brands. As long as this BS continues where everyone wants the same 3 brands, every other brand is going to fail.

[7sins]

The other thing that needs to be mentioned, is not all buyers of watches at these prices are buying just because they like the watch and are a true collector. You have a lot of speculators, that are not grey dealers, who purchase at these prices as they anticipate prices to further rise. That will cause prices to keep increasing, REGARDLESS if there is enough value for money in the watch.