1675 and red 1680 prices…

[L.K Johnson]

Have a habit of checking prices regularly just to keep the insurance value correct…have done this the last couple of years.
The last year or so I’ve been noticing that red 1680 and 1675 seems to be standing still or declining. Keep staring and the same watches at Chrono24 that are not getting sold. I mean the 4 digit Rolex sport watches are not getting produced anymore but it still seems like the modern ones are increasing by the minute but not those references.

What’s your take on this?

I’ve heard this comments before:

-Instagram is a big influence for modern Rolexes
-The good examples of 1675 and red 1680 still fetches high prices
-Red 1680 and 1675 have already had great price development over the last years

Any other suggestions besides that?

Here is a chart of how the price development has been for some modern Rolexes recently:

[springer]

My experience is this:

The nicer watches sell, the mediocre to average condition watches sit silent and go unsold for months until the sellers wake-up and realize that their watch is not a superior example and is over priced. When an unrealistic seller sees nice vintage GMTs selling for $22,000-$25,000 and more, they automatically price there mediocre examples in the same price range unrealistically thinking that if Billy Joe from Billy's Watches is asking top tier prices..."why can't I." Most of the nicer examples sell quick, the average examples would also sell much faster if priced accordingly when they are first put up for sale. The same holds true for red Subs and most of the vintage examples.

[FrenchBigCrown]

Originally Posted by springer

My experience is this:

The nicer watches sell, the mediocre to average condition watches sit silent and go unsold for months until the sellers wake-up and realize that their watch is not a superior example and is over priced. When an unrealistic seller sees nice vintage GMTs selling for $22,000-$25,000 and more, they automatically price there mediocre examples in the same price range unrealistically thinking that if Billy Joe from Billy's Watches is asking top tier prices..."why can't I." Most of the nicer examples sell quick, the average examples would also sell much faster if priced accordingly when they are first put up for sale. The same holds true for red Subs and most of the vintage examples.

Spot on.

[L.K Johnson]

Originally Posted by FrenchBigCrown

Spot on.

Yeah, agree…but this ain’t new, I’ve heard this plenty times over. Since I’ve been scouting prices for quite some time, I sense something else besides this.
A couple years back even the rowdiest red 1680 was gone within weeks off Chrono24…(and they were priced in the same price range as now)

[zapokee]

It's possible that the pandemic has changed people's focus, causing reduced demand and therefore more stable prices. I certainly haven't bought any watches for a couple of years because of it.

The market will go up in the long term, though. Just wait until the virus is no longer a thing and people look to spend the money they haven't been able to spend over the last two years...

[Dan S]

This isn't really answering the question, but it feels to me like the neo-vintage/classic sport model prices have been steadily rising over the past couple of years (i.e. 5-digit tritium). Good tritium 14060 or 16610 examples are at least $10k now. I haven't been following the tritium/sapphire GMT and Explorer II prices very closely, but I have the sense they are also rising substantially.

[L.K Johnson]

Originally Posted by zapokee

It's possible that the pandemic has changed people's focus, causing reduced demand and therefore more stable prices. I certainly haven't bought any watches for a couple of years because of it.

The market will go up in the long term, though. Just wait until the virus is no longer a thing and people look to spend the money they haven't been able to spend over the last two years...

Thanks for your input! Since the 6-digit Sport Rolexes (and other modern references, as shown in my attached pics) has had major price increases, I can’t see how that makes 1675 and red 1680 being reduced in demand and the price stable and even decline…can you clarify your theory?

[zapokee]

Originally Posted by L.K Johnson

…can you clarify your theory?

No. It was just a rough random thought at 5 in the morning.

But a global pandemic might not necessarily affect all sectors of the market in the same way.

[L.K Johnson]

Originally Posted by Dan S

This isn't really answering the question, but it feels to me like the neo-vintage/classic sport model prices have been steadily rising over the past couple of years (i.e. 5-digit tritium). Good tritium 14060 or 16610 examples are at least $10k now. I haven't been following the tritium/sapphire GMT and Explorer II prices very closely, but I have the sense they are also rising substantially.

I agree! My 16710 has been steadily increasing and keeps increasing…soon worth more then my red 1680 which I find really strange…

[stewester]

I think until recently vintage Rolex (and by that I mean 4 digit/plexi/matte dials) was the in thing amongst collectors. It has now been superceded by modern sports references from Rolex, Patek, AP and the like. I see a lot of collectors trading out of vintage and into modern/semi-modern pieces.

Those who have stayed the course are generally more knowledgeable/discerning and are hunting for perfect examples, or at least very, very good ones. That means the average stuff sits around until it's discounted.

[MrChamfers]

Originally Posted by L.K Johnson

I agree! My 16710 has been steadily increasing and keeps increasing…soon worth more then my red 1680 which I find really strange…

That would be really strange indeed !

[zapokee]

Originally Posted by L.K Johnson

I agree! My 16710 has been steadily increasing and keeps increasing…soon worth more then my red 1680 which I find really strange…

Perhaps the four-digit vintage guys are more likely to be collectors who already have the basic pieces to play with at home during a pandemic (1680s, 1675s, etc.), leading to a softer vintage market. They're not looking to buy.

Buyers of more modern pieces are more likely to be one-watch guys who just have money burning a hole in their pockets due to lockdown, leading to a stable/rising modern market. They're looking to buy.

[FrenchBigCrown]

Originally Posted by stewester

I think until recently vintage Rolex (and by that I mean 4 digit/plexi/matte dials) was the in thing amongst collectors. It has now been superceded by modern sports references from Rolex, Patek, AP and the like. I see a lot of collectors trading out of vintage and into modern/semi-modern pieces.

Those who have stayed the course are generally more knowledgeable/discerning and are hunting for perfect examples, or at least very, very good ones. That means the average stuff sits around until it's discounted.

Originally Posted by zapokee

Perhaps the four-digit vintage guys are more likely to be collectors who already have the basic pieces to play with at home during a pandemic (1680s, 1675s, etc.), leading to a softer vintage market. Theyr'e not looking to buy.

Buyers of more modern pieces are more likely to be one-watch guys who just have money burning a hole in their pockets due to lockdown, leading to a stable/rising market. They're looking to buy.

Good call(s) - the good vintage stuff tends to already live in collections - and the 'average' stuff that was selling (to first-timers etc.) has been replaced with 5-digit stuff (and later)

[swaini3]

I follow prices, just for the fun of it and on a semi daily basis too. Good examples don't last long. Nothing compared to modern pieces as it seems theres a bigger crowd after them.
I also believe that its difficult to compare vintage buyers vs modern Rolex buyers.

[FrenchBigCrown]

Originally Posted by swaini3

I follow prices, just for the fun of it and on a semi daily basis too. Good examples don't last long. Nothing compared to modern pieces as it seems theres a bigger crowd after them.
I also believe that its difficult to compare vintage buyers vs modern Rolex buyers.

I'm also of the opinion that some of the developing markets haven't caught up yet.

There are successful businessmen (and women) in the Middle East, South America and China (just three examples) that are using their newfound wealth, buying new Rolex, Patek, AP and new Lamborghinis - eventually, they will want classic cars and vintage wristwatches - just my opinion.

[L.K Johnson]

Thanks for all input, guys! I think you really are on to something here…when it comes to four digit prices I see my 1601’s and 1803’s really skyrocketing in price. Seems like they found a new crowd maybe…

[springer]

Originally Posted by MrChamfers

That would be really strange indeed !

I agree...strange indeed and you and I both know that "it aint gonna happen" in our lifetime.

[springer]

Originally Posted by L.K Johnson

Yeah, agree…but this ain’t new, I’ve heard this plenty times over. Since I’ve been scouting prices for quite some time, I sense something else besides this.
A couple years back even the rowdiest red 1680 was gone within weeks off Chrono24…(and they were priced in the same price range as now)

Using Chrono 24 pricing, for me at least, is not an accurate barometer for anything except to see how over-priced someone can list a watch for.

[indianmachine]

Originally Posted by L.K Johnson

I agree! My 16710 has been steadily increasing and keeps increasing…soon worth more then my red 1680 which I find really strange…

Wow that'd be nuts, where do you see 16710 prices these days?

[FrenchBigCrown]

Originally Posted by springer

Using Chrono 24 pricing, for me at least, is not an accurate barometer for anything except to see how over-priced someone can list a watch for.

That may be true - but plenty of watches get sold (over-priced or not) on Chrono24.

It's a big player in the market - like it or not.

[springer]

Originally Posted by FrenchBigCrown

That may be true - but plenty of watches get sold (over-priced or not) on Chrono24.

It's a big player in the market - like it or not.

Of course some sell but not at those unrealistic prices. I know many many collectors but I don't know one who has purchased on Chrono 24. Most collectors seem to avoidChrono 24 because of selling issues noted from past buyers who purchased there from one of the many problem sellers.

[FrenchBigCrown]

Originally Posted by springer

Of course some sell but not at those unrealistic prices. I know many many collectors but I don't know one who has purchased on Chrono 24. Most collectors seem to avoidChrono 24 because of selling issues noted from past buyers who purchased there from one of the many problem sellers.

Conversely, I know a few European collectors who have bought through Chrono24 and have been happy with their deals.

And it's more than 'some' that sell dude. You might not like the site (I'm not that big a fan myself) but loads of deals are done every day through the site.

[L.K Johnson]

Originally Posted by indianmachine

Wow that'd be nuts, where do you see 16710 prices these days?

Looking at Chrono24 my 16710 is about 14k US and the cheapest red 1680 on Chrono24 (Mark V) is 16k so it’s not an incredible large distant…it might not ever happen that my 16710 surpasses my red 1680 in value, I was merely making a point that my 16710 has had an incredible upswing whereas my 1680 and 1675 is standing still in pricing…(just like another member mentioned had happened with other 5 digit Sport Rolexes)

Chrono24 might not be the best price indicator but it is what I have been using over the years…

[XavierM]

Chrono24 is not the place to look for vintage prices.
A majority of 5 digit watches are still correct, It’s mostly about the case condition.
A majority of 4 digits watches have something wrong (wrong dial, damaged dial, wrong insert etc) and yes prices are generally too high for these incorrect pieces but not as high as all correct example, perfect dial with a good case from what I see.
Comparing 4 and 5 digits prices in Chrono24 means comparing the average example value of each, and the average 4 digits is far far from a good one compared to the average 5 digits.
Regarding price increase, I think that people frustrated by the unavailability of modern models went onto 5 digits with talks like: « movements are already bulletproof, you have a saphire crystal, it is really water resistant and it will go up in value with time as it is more and more considered vintage » but I do not think they will eventually increase above 6 digits prices.

[1675-David]

Maybe 4 digit subs and gmt’s have simply had their day. They are difficult watches to collect and maintain for the uninitiated with all the pit falls of condition, aftermarket/service parts, period correctness etc, not to mention the money involved. There are easier Rolex sports watches out there.

[FrenchBigCrown]

Originally Posted by 1675-David

Maybe 4 digit subs and gmt’s have simply had their day.

Jeez! I hope not!

[vakman]

I am stil missing mine 1680 red. sold it for a 15500

[harry in montreal]

I really like looking at eBay completed auctions. I figure add 10-20% if sold by way of trf. I also find the Fs section on trf to be pretty good. I do find it comical how some rolexes can have 50-100 ‘bumps’, and the price is stagnant. I guess if it’s your watch you can do as you wish ! I mean fish.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by 1675-David

Maybe 4 digit subs and gmt’s have simply had their day. They are difficult watches to collect and maintain for the uninitiated with all the pit falls of condition, aftermarket/service parts, period correctness etc, not to mention the money involved. There are easier Rolex sports watches out there.

Perhaps, but I think it's more likely that the great, excellent, and museum-quality examples are being kept more nowadays by collectors who realize they are irreplaceable.

That leaves more mediocre examples on the market. They will sell, but often not at the prices that owners/dealers expect, so they linger longer.

That's my experience anyway. I will never sell my best pieces (5512, 1665 DRSD and a full set 6263) simply because I don't see anything on the market as nice anymore. I'd never be able to replace them.

[Nick9]

Originally Posted by L.K Johnson

Thanks for all input, guys! I think you really are on to something here…when it comes to four digit prices I see my 1601’s and 1803’s really skyrocketing in price. Seems like they found a new crowd maybe…

This for sure. Just in the last couple of years I’ve seen big price jumps in four digit Rolexes, 16XX, and they seem to be bought at a good pace. They are nice wearable watches and I suppose the prices won’t cripple the bank account.

I’m not sure I understand why Air Kings and Air King Dates are an exception to this, but they seem to be….